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[alrelax]

Patterns and Trends appear and disappear in the game of baccarat. It is a widely debated subject for as long as I can recall and I have been steadily playing this game since the 1980s. The math statisticians will claim, "Gamblers Fallacy" and the lay-person Baccarat player will claim, "Visual Observance", which entices them to wager or not wager a certain something. 

Fact is, Patterns and Trends of all types do appear and disappear with varying existence in their lengths. Always has and always will. What complicates the matter of observation and recognition is, that Patterns/Trends might be very short in length or considerably long. They can also be anywhere in between the two depending on how you judge something that is happening. Another complication that adds confusion is how Patterns/Trends enter and exit the shoe presentments.  And of course how quickly you are able to observe and act upon the presentments occurring. 

The three most important areas of Patterns and Trends are:

1). Type.  Chop-Chop, Doubles, Triples, 1's-3"s, Naturals Cut, Ties Cut or Ties Stick, Bead Plate Subsequent Repeating, Player and Bankers Streaks. 

2).  Length.  The # of hands of the entire Pattern or Trend.

3).  Enter/Exit.  The coming about of the Pattern or Trend and the Exiting of it.

There is absolutely no foolproof solid prediction or identifiers, that will be consistently correct to say when anything will occur. But those Patterns and Trends will most certainly happen without rhyme or reason.   

There are also varying strengths of the duration and repetition of the Pattern or Trend itself. To better understand varying strengths, you must understand what Sections and Turning Points are and their limited amount of hands that form them.

It does not really matter why those Patterns and Trends appear and disappear, or how they come about or do not come about. The absolute object is to win as much as you can when they do appear. They appear and are showcased by the presentments they are making. Simple.

Here—an example. Think!

The exact same as football think about it. Touchdowns. Run 80–90+ yards. Happens, but few and far in between the regular, every day plays and games. Can there be more than one huge completed play in the last few minutes? Sure, it happens, what about the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, 4th quarter? Just an example.  Look at all the 'IMPOSSIBLES" within those few minutes.  No different than Bac.

Look at YouTube, Bills Vs. Chiefs 2021 AFC Divisional Game.

Winning. Chop/doubles/triples/quadruples, next. It will happen in small sections frequently. Sometimes consistently for a large section 18-30 hands and sometimes smaller sections, over and over and over again with different types of Patterns/Trends, but none the less, Patterns and Trends. Always has been and always will be. No need to debate the existence or the non-existence of them, because they will always come about.

You must totally understand and respect; drawdowns, smaller buy-ins and larger wager amounts. All three will come into play and you need to be conscious of them and understand each and know how to manipulate and use them. Here's an example of pumping it up and going with the flow when you were winning.

   6 Wagers                                   3 Wagers

  $300                                           $300
  $300    (win = 600 profit)            $600  ($300 back to stack) 
  $300    (win = 900 profit)            $900  (win = $1,800 profit)                           
  $300    (win = 1,200 profit)
  $300    (win = 1,500 profit)
  $300    (win = 1,800 profit)

Which set of wagers would you rather engage in?  Think!  Most of us do not at the bac table while everything is happening. 

You have to understand what a win is. Once you do, you will be able to wager heavier when you recognize it and as well, when it is optimum to your wagering desires reverting to lighter wagers or stopping when it is going away.

From years of experience: Do not dwell and put off wagering when you are into a Pattern or Trend formation because IMO, that is the number one confuser and destroyer of 'easy money' and 'quick profits' at the baccarat table.  Another highly debatable subject, but I stand by what I just said.

FACT. Math, stats, house edges and whatever advantage we're used in the past, that was game specific are all not applicable to the shoe at the instant time you are sitting down to. Why? Because you will not lose or win the amount of whatever it was before, that you claim edge or advantage percentages to and that's another reason so many baccarat  players miss apply their own knowledge and experience they can easily benefit from.

The one thing that will hold pretty accurate, is if you specifically Wager a certain something, time and time again, you will end up losing large sums of your bank roll. Because nothing stays the same, over and over, shoe after shoe, in the game Baccarat. Nothing. The same thing(s) that allowed you to win, will cause you to lose as well. Get it in your mind and live by it. Think about it, with an open mind and you will see that. So simple and so factual, but so few really do believe it.  Just thinking about that electronic scoreboard and what I just wrote.  The casino spends thousands and thousands of dollars for the purchase and the maintenance of, it is probably the number one reason they are there. The casinos witness every shoe where the players lose their money saying and pointing to that scoreboard about what they desire to come about, because it did previously or on other shoes and it doesn't appear. It's like a billboard saying PURCHASE ME I AM COMING AROUND, and then a few minutes later, sorry not right now.

Why do players lose all of their buy-in almost always? Because of the previous paragraph. Because they attempt the same, over and over and over. False perceptions. Full of them in so many aspects. Be careful. Think. Realize.

Another player disadvantage is the attempt to get back their previous loss or two. Then a burst of win will come the players way and he has no definitive plan. You have to be able to realize with absolute certainty, the thoughts that are not panning out for whatever reason(s).

Winning Within Sections.

Pumping it up with positive progression and aggression. A 1-3-2-6 or a full win parlay with subsequent pull down each following win is IDEAL.  $250 initial bet, $250 win, $500 bet and pull down every subsequent $500 win.  First and second wager is at risk and starting with the third win, you recoup your $250 risk and profited $250 as well. If you can survive a fourth win you will be ahead $750 and have $500 still in play risk-free from your buy-in.

THINK!  Progressive and aggressive wagering will help trump flat betting by far.

When  to Wager. 'Reasonable By Realized'. I like that saying. You have to bring into existence. Cause to seem real by actual money. Then you feel it. Apply and consistently be achieved. Use the winnings for a proper 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 M.M.M. allocation and you'll be on your way to profit and not being a loser.

Pulling It Down With Complete Control.

When losses begin you must pull down your wagers with 100% emotionless reflection, no matter the following hands outcomes!!!  You have to be able to figure out if it's a few hand losing occurrence or a more domineering losing time that you cannot come out of. The worst thing to do is sit there and enter into the, 'should have, didn't do and lost so many easy hands to win' scenario. You will become your biggest enemy and buy-in/bankroll killer if you engage in that stupid witnessing and tormenting of a decision you made. Yet, so many players stand there and torture them selves, re-enter the game and I would say the upper 90 percentile of them, straight loose at that point. I just gave you years and years of experience. I hope some some people can take it to heart and use it to improve their game.

Equally as important is knowing when to quit. You better figure it out and subscribe to it with absolute conviction.

Not Chasing Anything.

Chasing is the absolute worst emotional inflection you can impose upon yourself!  PERIOD.  Chasing destructs buy-ins, bankrolls and good/great players. Hard and fast.

Baccarat is the easiest game to win and lose. Think. Realize. Do not fall prey to all of the common every day misunderstandings and when you do win, be smart, be stable and know what to do with those winnings. I've written about it many times, go back and read them because they will help you and not hurt you.

Now The Downside to Following A Pattern/Trend.

1s and 2s.  Made a 3 and kept going for 8, 10, 12 hands repeatedly.  You lost.  Playing the chop.  Goes double, you lost.  Wager the double and it goes chop, you lost.  An easy plan, but not very easy to keep it in a Win mode or maintain your absolute lack of emotional neutrality and pure focus.

Emotions and frustrations set in and it gets worse when you start losing. That is why I continuously write about emotions and frustrations causing cloudiness and the inability to focus and capitalize on presentments that would otherwise be extremely easy to follow and profit from.

When the 4 IAR comes, so many swear it will cut, maybe when it is strong sections, very little chop, or straight 1s and 2s, but waiting for a 4 IAR, wagering for it to cut and make a unit or two, I just never witness the profit being held onto. I always witness it being given back in attempted repeats. 

And as the highest majority of so many players fail to realize, a consistent and mechanical wagering bet will bankrupt you.  What happens is, many people render the factual (what is actually happening) as absolute because of their own failure to understand positiveness and the negativity of randomness.

You have to understand what are just 'beliefs' rather than 'suspended reality'.

Beliefs are made up of:

Emotions
Thoughts
Previous experiences
Projection of what you desire

Suspended Reality is made up of:

Presentments as they are forming
Sections and Turning Points
Equalization and up to a + - 10/ + - 20 leeway (as the turning points)
1s, 2s and 3s

Please Note:  Ref the +-10/+-20 leeway, the turning points I refer to, are NOT the 'Turning Points' that stop and start Sections.  They are the turning points whereas, the equalization begins for the side that is minus/negative. 

Ideally, you need to find a connection to a source. Then let it flow. Your wagering and MMM of wins.

Don't get caught up. Go with it. No matter if your beliefs and/or confidence is there with the wager because once you lose with strong beliefs and/or confidence on something, you will generally hold it against yourself and that is no good for winning ability in any way whatsoever.

View your wagering as a channel. A temporary read, a short path to stay on track.   Get on, be safe, profit, get off. There's nothing else. Think about that.

There are plenty of sections that you will have perceived to happen. And they did. You will not always understand how they came about, the order of them or how and why and what you expected was not present. You have the absolute freedom to choose. Positive or negative. To follow or not to follow. To cut or stick because of anything.

So many players will always tend to favor various things prior to their wagering, that causes them to make a decision. It works at times and it does not work at others. But in my opinion and that of many many others, what they are doing is causing themselves to completely miss most opportunities that could be capitalized on.

If you get caught up into any type of systematic scheduled wagering, IMO, experience and intensive research, you are going to get harmed. 

Know what the game is. Know what the game is not. Be smart. Be conscious. Think clear and non-biased when you wager.

Thanks,
Alrelax
Admin/Forum Owner & Baccarat Player

[KungFuBac]

Thx great post. Several solid "real-time" , live , "real-table" events and examples.
I find several of these topics critical to winning / will comment more tomorrow.

Ill touch on just one of the several topics you mention.

*I find the example of six wagers vs 3 wagers a very important concept(i.e., bet size-to-buyin size) to winning more than we lose. Meaning that I feel we sometimes must win more than our buyin in single sessions(For we shall lose our buyin at times regardless ones skill set).

My thesis is that one needs to really focus on their posprogression (and bet size) at wager#1 and wager#2 as that determines the compounding % we receive,(& how quick we get our monies back to our stack),  when we are fortunate enough to select >=4-5 winners in a row, and who knows one may occasionally put together a 7-12 WIAR(wins-in-a-row) streak.

More later,

[alrelax]

First, there are numerous things that we must engage in to win. Baccarat is not a difficult game. However, and a HUGE however, is that the players make it extremely difficult to win because of their own beliefs, as well as a total misunderstanding of the hows and whys of the wagers they make.  In other words, most everyone outsmarts themselves.  Simply, as I attempted to bring to light in the above post, most DO NOT UNDERSTAND what can and most likely will happen during the course of all shoes.

Second, great Baccarat players will certainly (occasionally) lose their buy-in amounts regardless as to their skill level, taking into consideration a decent Bankroll with a regularly removed percentage of it for their buy-in amounts, etc.  (A buy-in should be around 10-15% for a play session.  Example.  $20,000.00 bankroll, buy-in $2,000-$3,000). 

Third, most all players will 'generally' wager losing bets that are larger and with less thought then they will with their winning wagers.  And that is most of their downsides and the reason they don't make what they easily could profit from in the game of baccarat.

Fourth, player advantaged M.M.M.'s will work and allow everyone employing them properly to increase their win hold, NOT give back decent/substantial wins and provide such things as built in stop-losses, play time and much much more.  However, most players are either oblivious to proper M.M.M.'s or too head-strong to use them. 

P.S:  Your statement: "*I find the example of six wagers vs 3 wagers a very important concept(i.e., bet size-to-buyin size) to winning more than we lose."  Wager size in a short 'redundant rotational scheme' is a player advantage that gives huge wins to those that understands the concept and can control themselves as I outlined in the post.

Time to change, improve and win larger with greater consistency then we all have in the past.