+ Register

[alrelax]

PART 1

The Internet has done its share of negativity to gambling.

Especially in games like baccarat. Why? Because most everyone wants the 'Google and Find' answers no matter what level they are at. Including accuracy, success and positive results they will have in every session. A complete fallacy but they chase it in every means possible without really focusing on what will help them in my opinion.

Maybe 'Google and Find' works in a great amount of things; How to replace parts, how to work certain equipment, guidelines for troubleshooting broken mechanical things, directions to places, reviews of locations, recipes for cooking, statistics on towns-cities-states and worldwide locations, history of all sorts, corporate backgrounds, etc., etc., etc.  But 'Google and Find' will not offer you the triggers and mechanical wagering schedules most seem to believe really do exist that will offer a continuous and repetitive winning wagering plan.

The Internet does offer a very limited amount of resources to anyone as well as some experienced players that attempt to engage in serious and real discussion regarding gambling. But during the previous years they have fizzled out extremely with ridiculous and childish behavior, that the highest majority seem to engage in on a daily repetitive showing.

However along with all the ridiculous infighting, circle of exclusive friends and drama driven people that only offer one line non factual or insightful and totally meaningless posts, demeaning and humiliating comments, as well as total negativity, so many of the long-term experienced forum players either do not post any longer and simply refuse to engage in forum exchanges with the types I just mentioned. Sad but brutally true!

I have noticed, as well as a great amount of others, there is a much larger amount of rejection and dismissal of whatever experienced and knowledgeable people say these days, both on the forums  as well as at the tables. Why? I would have to attribute it to the masses of people are just not familiar with the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', trying to be explained, shown and discussed.

Since most people start playing Baccarat by some sort of stumbling on the game with no prior research, trial and error or coaching, they are highly subjected to all the systems and easy money selling talk of one type or another on the Internet before those people finally come across a forum with serious members and less drama then all the other ones.

And throwing their good money after bad (lost at gambling and system sellers) money they all experience for a while, they immediately side with so many of the drama driven, one liners, etc. I guess I'm just assuming, it's just their subconscious way of getting back at anything that really makes sense in gambling? 

What is really sad, and I witness it over and over and over again, but so very true, are most being 100% hypocritical of experience, real results and factual findings.

[alrelax]

PART 2

So much writing on the Internet about patterns and trends with money management applied. But unfortunately not really explained and it virtually all involves unlimited Bankroll in the way that they are doing their testing and publishing the results. Of course that is coupled with totally unrealistic limits at the table which you will hardly or never ever find such table limits as $1.00 to $30,000, etc. 

Let's just get the table limits published here.  In 99% of casinos you will find the following:

$10.00/$25.00 to $1,000.00
$25.00/$50.00 to $2,000.00/$2,500.00
$25.00/$50.00 to $5,000.00
$25.00/$50.00 to $10,000.00
$100.00 to $10,000.00
$200.00 to $15,000.00
$300.00/$500.00 to $20,000.00
$500.00 to $25,000.00

With a very trivial amount of Casio properties you might come across a slight variation from the above. 

And people are talking about swings of -150 to -400 units etc. So let's just think about this for a quick second. Let's take $25 as a minimum. And if you lose 150 units you're talking $3,750.00.  If you started with $100 as a minimum and you lost 150 units you talking about $15,000.00.  Starting with $25 and losing 300 units you would have lost $7,500.00.  Starting with $100 minimum and losing 300 units you talking about losing $30,000.00.  And you need at least 10 sessions to even find out if your system works because you're gonna lose some sessions and win some sessions (hopefully) and you're talking about almost always in all of the systems as far as I read about, flat betting. 

Go ahead and take every swing and analyze the events prior to an attempt to define and discover triggers that appear at 50% and greater of the time. Sure there will be a few here and there but how do you know that they are going to continue in every consecutive shoe that is played?  The reasoning and belief is so far-fetched and so impossible, it stuns me to imagine how people fall for it and purchases the systems that guarantee and promise such events to happen.

Simply, repetitiveness does not exist.  It does not exist in any published order of any type.  Never did and never will.  The shoe you are playing might produce a single player after ever single time the banker produces a natural or a '3 card whatever', and then for 6 consecutive shoes, the exact opposite occurs and you gave back your triggered win and lost 5 times the total amount counting on the trigger to win once again.  Possibly a few triggers here and there can be and are highlighted, but their appearances will never even reach close to 50%.  Never ever.  Period. 

I read so often, flatbet until losses occur and you will be safe. One unit or two units or four units, etc. A realistic Drawdown until you are able to recoup and restock your buy-in loss, will always be hundreds of units most of the time. And by flat betting and winning a few units at a time, it is such a far-fetched possibility to have a winning system, again it just stuns me.

And the playtime. I guess some of these results are published from high speed computer analysis which is basically worthless at the table. Talking about 8 to 10 shoes of nothing before something happens in one of their upswings where the magical trigger(s) are at, etc. How are you going to sit through and play baccarat shoes in a brick and mortar casino at an average of 1.5 hours a shoe?  You would be talking 15 hours of straight play time to go through 8 to 10 shoes.

Every single grind will lose if played repeatedly and consecutively. It has to. It does. Every single grind will win only trivial times in the game Baccarat. However, the loss will well outnumber the wins and that is why the game exists in Casinos. Simple. Do not try to beat what is established and proven for decades and decades by purchasing a system for $500.00 or $2,000.00 or $5,000.00. It is ludicrous to the max.

A small Bankroll and a small Buy-in will never ever survive the swings a.k.a. DRAWDOWNS. The few times it might, out of say 20 times playing, will never ever allow you to be even at the end. You need a decent sized Bankroll and you need to buy in for a small percentage of that bank roll each time allowing for losses. But this is what the system sellers and all of the guaranteed money people on the Internet will always fail to tell you.

It is possible to win money and I am talking about wins that far outweigh your buy-ins. However, it is a huge combination of understanding and adhering to MMM and emotional control and most of all, understanding shoe presentments and wagering with large positive progressions while risking the win money when and if it comes your way. Otherwise, IMO you were not going to profit from the game Baccarat.

Winning consistently includes losses/losing sessions. Yes it does, you will fail if you do not subscribe to that and keep it in your conscious every single time you sit down the play. That I guarantee you.

Don't get me wrong, an extremely large amount of shoes, consecutively, playing whatever it is on the grind will eventually be in your favor. But only for an undisclosed and never to be determined amount of upcoming hands.  And those hands are going to be presented with total randomness that is never going to be the same from previous ones in an exact order with the exact triggers that were preached upon in systems.  The winning hands might be the same but predicting and knowing when they are coming is impossible to place upon any shoe in any game of baccarat.

I have studied several 5,000 shoe test results. While one will produce profits another will not. I will not disclose what method it was, but it was a common, 'so many players' and then wager for so many bankers in a 7-8-9-10-11 step Martingale type of system.  And that is why it is so ridiculous with the way that they test them. Give the results. Highlight what they want. And with such fictitious table limits that I labeled it all as ridiculous and ludicrous to the max.

Now in reality.  The amount of units required would be about 750,000 to profit plus or minus 10%, for 75,000 units. The profit is 10% max of the total Bankroll. But you would also have other times within the 5,000 shoe sessions where you would either lose or profit a very trivial amount above the mark of even.  Once all the profits and losses are added and deducted, every single 5,000 shoe session was a loser. EVERY SINGLE ONE WAS A LOSER!

And again that is why baccarat tables exist in casinos.

If you have never witnessed 8-9-10-12 or more back to back players, you have a very limited table experience. As well, 7 or 8 players back to back followed by one or two bankers and then another 6-7-8-9 or so players immediately being presented.  That is what repetitively and nightly, wipes out peoples buy-ins when they are betting on one thing only, no matter if it's player only or banker only or a certain hand after a natural or a certain hand after a tie or a conglomeration of various triggers to happen. 

Lose a few of those and realize that buy-ins from realistic bankrolls are doomed, plain and simple, counting on some trigger method to produce your win.  I have said it many times before, do not wager for what you want, wager with what the shoe is presenting.  Hopefully I got my point across?

Casinos were 100% exclusively 5% commission charged on winning Banker hands.  They are in large part gone now and replaced by the EZ Bac version. But a few years, back when the game really picked up speed with the addition of numerous versions of the game with various side bets, etc., a great amount of casinos dropped the commission version of the original game. All of this happens for a reason. And today's player is so oblivious to the real facts and reasoning behind how the game is presented and what the game is about, I physically laugh how they research and study lawnmowers, TVs or a computer before purchasing one, more than they will before they gamble thousands and thousands of dollars on the game Baccarat.

However all beliefs and most all theories are based on the assumption the banker wins almost 51% of the time and the player wins slightly over 49% of the time. But this is not in every shoe or every session you will play.

In Hardcore reality, both sides have a 50-50% chance for wins and losses of all types when you were playing.  Both sides can form any amount of random style events that many will say, "wow I never thought that could happen", or something along those lines. Almost every session that I play, I see that exact same thing happening.

Here is something I wrote back in 2017 on this forum:  "Take any statistic you desire and apply it to a real game of baccarat.  Keep applying it and see how much you win from using statistics to wager on.  Betting for something to happen instead of betting for what the shoe is producing, is certainly a way to drain your bank roll faster than most anything else, IMO."

Why? Because the stats/results are from millions of shoes and multi millions of hands. You are not sitting down to play even a fraction of a percent of those stats, even if you add up your yearly total cumulative count.  Simple.  Seriously think!