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[alrelax]

Dedicated because of Asymbac-KungFuBac and others that are serious with the game of baccarat.

It is not always a 'gut feeling'. You have to understand randomness.  Randomness=You can't always follow it, you can't always detect it and most of all, it's hard as hell to follow.  Not by any means easy to visually see at the table while playing, yes I agree.  But you have to, in order to go with it or against it, I believe is the best way to say it.

Okay.  Those that found and play the game of baccarat usually do it because they see the money flow easily from the dealers rack to the players. They witness the smiles, the high-fives, the yelling and the screaming. Of course, there is losing but losing is absolute quiet 99.99% of the times. So many just get up and leave from the table, unless you've been watching them you really don't know that they lost.

And yes, the game can flip to your advantage or your disadvantage so quickly and easily, with such irregular and almost impossible to detect reasoning. That is, without any balance or visual reasoning that makes sense at the time.  But that is part of the randomness that you must understand if you are going to play the game Baccarat.

The problem is, so many think, believe and play with the assumption, that when a certain amount of hands are played, that their success win rate will be greatly increased in their favor.  WRONG!  However, there might be possibilities that can offer advantages, at various times. What they fail to truly realize is just that and play by it. And that is one of the biggest reasons that most will fail to truly realize and profit handsomely at this game.

Math, stats and scientific application cannot be put into a trigger or any type of regular mechanical wagering schedule.  If you do, you are falling prey 100% to the deep and misunderstood results of randomness.

However, a super bright flashing lightbulb above certain presented hands, will allow an experienced player that understands randomness some beautiful advantages. On the other hand, almost all the time, an ugly downside quickly appears and the player gives his winning money plus his buy-in, right back to the dealers rack in order to continue wagering on what just won. And that my friends, is randomness.

There is not one or two things that need to be followed, it's a bit more complex unfortunately. There are numerous things that will add to a players advantage or his disadvantage while playing, that has nothing to do with bet selection. Such as what percentage of your bank roll you buy-in at. Understanding drawdown and using it to your advantage. Applying positive progressions while winning. Discovering your plateau and level and being extremely conscious of them while playing. Those are some of the major and most important ones by far.

As many times as something wins, likewise the times it does not will equal or outnumber the times it does. Unfortunately most will never admit to that or apply that to their game.

Please, I beg you to read the following two threads of mine if you are seriously interested in this game:

*  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11524.0

*  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11538.0

Why?  Because of two things:

1)  I care about you;

2)  I know what I am talking about.

Respectfully,
Alrelax

[AsymBacGuy]

Al, I highly respect your point of view, I've implemented many your ideas in our plan ('our' as it's three years we are playing as a kind of a team).

Problem is that every member who played or is playing with us adopted a kind of strategy too influenced by the actual outcomes, hoping that good things will stand or that something should change  without properly knowing the why.
There is one member who lost millions after having won millions, of course she filled casinos' pockets at the end. 
People like that hasn't the confidence to play baccarat anymore and just for the reasons you have brilliantly written above.

Eventually subjective strategies do not work, otherwise baccarat wouldn't exist and it's very likely that objective 'math-statistical' findings couldn't help in the very long run either.

Nonetheless, some (rare) people is interested when you're telling them that a given pattern is more likely to stop or to prolong and of course we can't be 100% or 80% right, just hoping that the decision will reach or surpass the well known 51.3% (B bets) and 50.1% (P bets) probability.

If there's a fallacy to think that we can statistically transform 50.68% into 51.3% and/or 49.32% into 50.1% well it will be true at both ways, subjective and objective.
I mean there's no evidence that subjective way will be ahead of the objective one.

When one player who seems to be a large winner and a lucky driver suddendly shouts "Next hand I feel Player" during a Banker streak, what are we going to bet?
Quite likely most players at the table won't follow him but for some reasons nobody is going to wager again the B streak either.
This exact thing happened recently and the 9 Banker streak didn't stop but prolonged to a 16 streak that nobody was betting on after the 'new genius in town' wrong feeling.

Then of course there are subjective strategies and objective strategies.
Strong 'subjective' players will lose around the negative HE, it's a wonderful accomplishment whereas poor objective players (especially those who use a violent progressive betting) will lose their a$$ in 4 or 5 sessions.

Conversely weak subjective players are going to lose almost every session and acute objective players could stand several sessions without losing a dime.

So it remains to demonstrate that one strategy is overwhelming or not the other one and only large samples of played shoes will get the answer. 

as.

[alrelax]

Asym,  thanks for the pat on the back.  I am writing a detailed (best I can) report about playing in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago.  Exactly what you are saying, happened.  Luckily and against huge odds, I won everything back I gave to the house after a decent sized win. 

The couple of shoes played were off the wall, total ludicrous play mixed with hell bent camaraderie led us to a beautiful win from the house.

There were many contingent reasons for what happened, but it was a roller coaster ride to the max.  I was definitely off my level and out of my plateau, but I managed. 

I proved my own point countless times, what happens and wins one time might or might not be presented another time.  And therefore, no repetitive trigger can ever be scheduled and adhered to on any type of regular basis in this game.

[AsymBacGuy]

I believe you!
Whenever we play I always try to implement your ideas in our plan, then it seems that we must have some luck anyway 

Btw, how sweet was that 16 B streak not properly capitalized?  Sigh.

as.

[alrelax]

Are you talking about this one?  17 Bankers (14 with 3 ties) that was also in Kansas City a while ago.

[KungFuBac]

Good post/comments everyone.

alrelax: "...Those that found and play the game of baccarat usually do it because they see the money flow easily from the dealers rack to the players. They witness the smiles, the high-fives, the yelling and the screaming. Of course, there is losing but losing is absolute quiet 99.99% of the times. So many just get up and leave from the table, unless you've been watching them you really don't know that they lost.

..."

Winning is a function of how well we handle losing. .

Limit the losing sessions and do NOT limit the upperend of the winning sessions. Many do the exact opposite.

Its my opinion that most players design a staking strategy for when they are on a winning streak/ spend little time designing it for the inevitable losing streak. We don't know which will occur first, but we do know that one will most certainly see both, at least I do.

*I cringe when I see a player bust their buyin and immediately rebuy. Then commence wagering for the exact same thing they were previously chasing(often with an increased wager size).

**I recently saw a lady bust her fourth buyin over three consecutive shoes(-1000,-2000,-2000) spanning approx 4 hours. It was approximately 1045pm and after her third bustout she is now just standing near the 7th spot. The pitboss gestures/says to her "we now have a spot open over here if you want to get in." The player that busted says: "Im having to wait until midnight as my bank only allows a certain amount of withdrawals in a 24 hour period."      


Continued Success,

[alrelax]

"Limit the losing sessions and do NOT limit the upperend of the winning sessions. Many do the exact opposite."

I seriously believe it is a bit deeper than that.  Most just harbor the thoughts of losing as well as the disbelief of what I call 'pouncing on it'. 

I have written about exactly that numerous times.  A hard pounce with larger and quick wins, then a pull down of profits.  But one has to religiously return to his level and plateau when that win abruptly stops. 

Not easy.  But when one truly understands randomness, it should get a bit easier.