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## Randomness. Using it and Understanding it.

Started by alrelax, May 22, 2023, 03:02:45 AM

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#### alrelax

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them?

To take advantage of opportunity within shoes of Baccarat, you will also have to face adversity (lack of opportunities).

#1). This is a long read!  If you are serious, sit down and read it, absorb it and comment on it.

#2). This is a subject that affects us all, we all have our opinions on it and while some are hell-bent how it affects them, others could care less. But I know that if you understand randomness and its advantages and disadvantages, you can profit nicely from the game.

What may or may not present itself.    And to me, that is the absolute key, the absolute Bac player's advantage.

Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.

Understanding and defining everything that might come about is unrealistic.  Although it is usually used as a defense against any type of non-mathematical or statistical result from being understood and used by the theory type of players, but in all reality, it works more so, if used in the correct manner and interpretation.  Meaning, the player has to have the ability, vision and experience to reason with the info and data he is instantly compiling.

Even as another, whom I believe is a real player at B&M's casinos said on another message board, "87% of all Bac games are 1's, 2's and 3's.  So stay within those 1's, 2's and 3's section and you will win more consistently."  Okay, great theory.  Not easy at all.  What you are really doing is pre-planning and scheduling your wagers, with the presentments of the shoe having to match your desires and planned bets.  You are not matching the presentments of the shoe, just because you figured out what the shoe does the most over so many statistical hands studied.

I do agree with the 87% figure.  It is just that after so many years of playing Bac in B&M's all over, I just know you might deal with a greater amount of the 13% shoes than you will the 87% shoes.  At least for the time you sit down to play.  As well, even when you are at those 87% shoes, what is to assure you the 1's, 2's and 3's will continue?  You have an infinite bank roll, you have a certain amount of buy in chips to risk.

Statistics are compiled from pretty large amounts of played shoes.  Just say out of 1 Million Shoes which would be approximately 80 Million Hands played, that the 87%/13% actually existed, true and correct.  That means, 10 Million Four Hundred Thousand hands were not 1,s, 2,s and 3's.  That is huge.  And all that number will do is climb, using 10 Million Shoes or 100 Million Shoes, etc.

I am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them.

There is no way to assure yourself, that you are within any percentage section of a mathematical or statistical result of the game.  What I gave you above regarding the 1's, 2's and 3's, is just one example of the tens of thousands of systems, advises, info insights, triggers, etc., etc., etc., that is floating around out there about Bac wagering.

The only things that exists all the time in Bac is randomness and uncertainty.  The players put different spins on each depending on what they are experiencing.  Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.  Again, just depends on what a player is experiencing with the shoe presentments being made as well as his wagers.  What it really boils down to is, that all wagers are correct as well as, not correct at the very same time.  Just depends on who you are, the winner of the hand or the loser of the hand.

Baccarat, Probability & Randomness Thoughts

These are strictly my thoughts after many decades of playing the game of baccarat within B&M casinos.

*  The highest amount of people will attempt to apply some type of mathematical and statistical "Mumbo Jumbo" to the game with & while extremely miscalculating math, statistics and probability.

*  Important point: 'It's more random than we think, not it is all random.' Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for all forms of hard work, skills, professions, scholastic degrees, etc.)

*  As much as we want to 'keep it simple, stupid', it is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous to ourselves when playing baccarat or in fact, anything to do with casino games whatsoever.

*  Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

*  Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance and it does not matter if that is pertaining to baccarat, casino gambling or in fact, most any type of business.

*  One common theory for why people pursue leadership as well as idols, is because of 'social emotions' which cause others to be influenced by a person due to physical signals like charisma, gestures, and stride.

*  This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all 'puffed up' in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful/desirable  person in no matter what you are doing, participating in or even playing within a casino.

*  'The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation.'

*  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)

*  Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative 'WHATEVERS'.
Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.  IMO, applies to countless things in our lives, not just baccarat and gambling.

*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

*  We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can realize informational and financial gains by getting an insight or an advantage of some type, etc., that most times it will falsely influence you to make the wrong decision, applies enormously in gambling at baccarat.

*  Every man believes that he is quite different, better, smarter, and as well just plain more valuable than the next.  Almost all of us think that the next man can not offer anything of use, intelligence or benefit to them.

*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

*  The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous standing) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and 'cutting edge' research, AKA 'Mumbo Jumbo').

*  There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside.  Almost all people gambling will have the toughest time understanding this as well as applying this to the game of baccarat.  Why?  Because it challenges their intelligence and emotions.

*  Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain strategies will be fruitful and countless ones if played on a regular basis (everyday) will prove themselves worthless or just plain wrong, etc.

*  If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefiting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events that will come with the game.  They have to and they will, in complete contrary to what almost all players want, desire or are willing to accept.

*  Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle, but these cycles are often short to medium term successes, all of course in time relevance. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long term. That is what the masses of baccarat players will not subscribe to or accept and believe.  The same can said for setting huge goals.  Unsustainable and sub-optimal for the long term.

*  Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between 'this has never happened' and 'this will ever happen.' You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty.  Which is exactly the way it is.  And when dealing with baccarat, getting 85 wagers correct and 15 incorrect can also be applied and do it without conformation and proof.

*  There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong.

*  Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event.  Does that mean the other 49 out of 50 was wrong or false?  Same with the theory and the application of mathematics.  As that too may not apply to every situation or event.

*  It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances apply, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share.

*  Pascal: 'the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.'  My first thought: Yes, but what if you believe in the 'wrong' God?  Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in?  Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed?  To me, it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God?  So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here.  IMO and only IMO.  But I am writing here and you are reading.  Again, you do not have to believe me or anything I write.  You write and give it a true.  Whew, another thought I had to put out there.

*  Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again.  Then you accomplished a false positive goal and you have to work even harder to move on once again to a higher and a better plateau.  That is why I wrote many things about plateaus and levels, remember?

*  Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.  Simple, true and applies to most all of us baccarat players.

*  Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing).  A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.  When you hit the win with the huge payoff, you never did anything wrong or negative.  LOL, but so true.

*  Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward.

*    We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy when others are involved, otherwise it would always be mass confusion, arguments and stalls.

*  Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid.

*  We seem to focus too much on local changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend.  Same as what is happening in the shoe of baccarat.

*  'Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.'

*  Emotions are 'lubricants of reason.'  We actually need to feel things to make decisions.  We do not think so, but that is not the way it works.

*  Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic.  If you did, you would have no time to actually employ or live the things you so desire.

*  Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.  Which so many gamblers will never ever understand or adhere to.

*  How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.

*  Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.

*  Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault.  You executed the move that you failed at, not them.

*  The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.

*  Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.  It takes skill to realize when that something is there to act on and how you will act successfully on it.

*  "We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good 'aesthetics, ethics and wrong, fooled by randomness with us in baccarat, seems to flow from just that."

*  When baccarat players win, they suddenly begin to black out all reasoning, past mistakes and negativity until they begin to lose once again.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend.

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session.

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem.

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well.

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it".

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time.

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a \$50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Some posted previously.  I revisited and merged a few threads of mine and added because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Which is, not to present what it is setup to produce.

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 388 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### Gizmotron

Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2023, 03:02:45 AMI am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them.

I must do this in sections of ideas before such locations alone would get me lost. It's clearly a thesis. I will take this section and the 87% / 13% to the bank. In Reading Randomness I spend a lot of time on characteristics. That's what this is. These series of 1's, 2's, and 3's are a wonderful statistic to find in EC betting. In RR you get 6 individual sets of EC groupings all at once. So you get to look at one set and it is showing nothing while another set might be showing something. That's just the nature of having simultaneous groups.

But this stat on EC's is actually a wonderful discovery on my part. Thanks.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### Gizmotron

Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2023, 03:02:45 AM*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

So wonderfully observed. I liken this to the amature stock traders that trade badly on fear. They tend to sell off from fear that they will lose what little they have gained. So they sell off too soon. They also sell off too late out of fear that they will miss out on a recovery transition and get stuck even further for an even bigger loss. I saw a video regarding this and it changed my life. I discovered moving averages and stop win and stop loss boundaries. It applies to all Even Chance games.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### Gizmotron

Quote*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

Take the discovery in Reading Randomness where I state what a person at the door at Harvey's Tahoe once told me when I asked him what the secret to all this was? He said "bet big when you are doing well and bet small any other times."  This is in fact the tactic for card counting in Blackjack.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### Gizmotron

Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2023, 03:02:45 AMYou have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

It's just coincidence. There is no meaningful statistical all seeing truth. If there were then probability would tell you when a trend starts, how long it will last, and when it will end.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### alrelax

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 388 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### alrelax

Think about the following and if you find it interesting and just maybe the case.........just maybe..........re-read my entire very long thread a couple of times.  Truly think about the below, maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 388 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### Gizmotron

Quote from: alrelax on May 23, 2023, 04:21:20 AMAnd if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.

I haven't even gotten past the first half way point yet for the first time through. All I know is what I have written down for myself regarding randomness. It's 4 years coming this July since I wrote Reading Randomness. It's 5 years since I viewed that video playing the stock market like a casino.

I know this much though. Your first loss on an attempted try is the beginning trigger that the trend or pattern has failed. It's time to bail out of the attempt. There will be many more openings to follow. There is no point in rushing things. In Roulette I have 6 groupings made up from 12 sets.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### Gizmotron

Quote from: alrelax on May 23, 2023, 04:32:50 AMThink about the following and if you find it interesting and just maybe the case.........just maybe..........re-read my entire very long thread a couple of times.

Others working their way through Reading Randomness have stated that you must read the entire thread several times to get it. It's a skill. It's part being able to read 12 sets in a simultaneous chart. It's almost too much to ask.

I need to pick up where I left off with your thread. I'm just half way through the first time.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### alrelax

I put a lot of serious time into what I posted.  Of course I'm biased, but I do genuinely feel it is the fruits of my good and bad experiences.

It is NOT a science, it is a non-tangible skill with unknowns attached.  Always.

Thanks Mark, Glen.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 388 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### Gizmotron

Quote'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

I tried to draw attention to this all the way back in the Gambler's Glen days. I called it the effectiveness states. It is the ability to ignore the biases. It's one thing to see a trend or a pattern. It's another to know if it is in a coincidental phase of working temporaraly or not. Knowing is everything.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."

#### AsymBacGuy

Glen, it's a very good post filled of ideas I've implemented in our play.
I don't recall the times when while waiting to place a dubious bet, your suggestions came to my help and believe me or not, I was more right than wrong (even by not betting at all, of course).
I even named them as 'Al spots'. Maybe I'll make some comments on that at my section.

But my basic approach remains strictly 'probability' based as I have to rely upon something that was demonstrated to be reliable beyond any doubt even though the short term variance could be a harsh obstacle to overtake.

So I continue to think that setting up a plan about your ideas is a very complicated task needing a lot of experience, I mean years and years of real play with an 'educated' mind.

Even Giz replies are interesting, particularly when he wrote:

It's one thing to see a trend or a pattern. It's another to know if it is in a coincidental phase of working temporaraly or not. Knowing is everything.

BTW, I do not think randomness is beatable but the fact that he keeps making references about roulette ECs 'as a whole' where numbers are not perfect equally distributed (besides R/B numbers) on the wheel could be food for thought.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

#### alrelax

Asym, You said: " BTW, I do not think randomness is beatable.................".

I am not trying to, and it cannot be scientifically or mechanically done.  However, I found numerous countermeasures to play with randomness and find or capture the opportunities and advantages that present themselves.

I have done extremely well over the years.  Yes I have lost some, but I have won a heck of a lot greater!

Please do not get the gist of what I am trying to say mixed up with what most would say about it.  And that is, I believe I can beat randomness and all of the side quarks that sneak up with it.

Asym, And you said; "Glen, it's a very good post filled of ideas I've implemented in our play.
I don't recall the times when while waiting to place a dubious bet, your suggestions came to my help and believe me or not, I was more right than wrong (even by not betting at all, of course).
I even named them as 'Al spots'. Maybe I'll make some comments on that at my section."

Well, I am trying to put into words and examples what can help, assist and define various baccarat events, etc.  Not easy and very time consuming.  I do appreciate the verbal and written acknowledgment.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 35, 388 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.

Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### AsymBacGuy

Dear friend, what I've written is the pure truth.

I'm deadly sure I'm playing with an advantage over the house, yet many times your suggestions helped me by transforming a 'normal' negative short term variance into positive or neutral situations.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

#### KungFuBac

alrelax in orig post at beginning of this great thread(Great thoughts/comments everyone). Ill try to take one topice at a time.

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them?
------------------------------------------------------------------

Randomness:
"In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in information.[1][2] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.[note 1] For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is not haphazardness; it is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome. Randomness applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. "

IMO this is key: Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable[

Or my preferred way of saying that last sentence:
"but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is SLIGHTLY MORE predictable VS RANDOMLY GUESSING[ "

Our ability to use logic/deduction(reasoning) gives us a huge advantage when trying to guess one more correct than incorrect. My thinking is: The Laws Of Probability (LOP) are like a cloud hovering always above the table (its always there suggesting what will happen across hundreds of outcomes).

However, just as certain types of clouds can suggest rain(or not rain) within the next hour. We can use these (LOP) clouds to predict our (rain or not rain) at the table. In other words if we see a cloud overhead and also know the meteorologist has stated 60% probability of rain. Then we wait until we start feeling just a slight moisture on our arm so lightly that we can only sense it on our arm hair---THAT is the moment we should place our bet on rain.

Some players invert this order of events and think: I shall bet for rain every hand and thus it shall start raining (eventually).

Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."