This a shoe I played today.

BB  P  BBBB  P  B  PP  B  P  B  P  B  PP  BBBB  P  BBB  PP  BBBBB  PP  BB  P  B  P  BB  PP  B  P  BBBB  PP  B  P  BB  PP  BBBBBBBB  P

The one good thing  about  positive or negative progressions is that either may be sufficiently

long enough to take advantage of  the individual bias of 1's or 2's ...etc.

which will be in your bet selection favor .

The one bad thing about progressions is that the bias that you're depending on never shows soon enough

and you bust your progression more than once.

Just for fun,  I will post a shoe played today. 6 28 15

P B P BB P B P B PPPPPP BBBB PP B PP BBBB P B PPP B P B P B P BB P B PPPP B P BB PPP B P BB P BBBBBB P B P BBBBBB P

The following is a shoe produced by a spin on the same above shoe's texture.

                         PBPPPP BB            BP PPBB       PB  B       P P P PB B         P B     PB    B P B   B       B  PP B P P PBP

This example is only one shoe, which one would you rather play.

Thanks gr8player.

I do agree R-W.  If a flat bet will not win , then a progression will not improve your chances. 
Unless your progression is extended beyond your system failure point.

A general question,

Will a systematic method,  which wins an average 4 units per shoe for 20 shoes using a  1, 2 negative progression,  be considered an exceptional method ?

In addition, When the P/B 's  in a row,  is the same as the default frequency , the game is unbeatable , blind luck aside, regardless of your progression or bet selection.

In conclusion, every shoe has its own bias frequency , that's why some we win and some we lose.

To control the bias is the only true grail.

Bias is something I've tried to find a solution for or more clearly , How to control.

For example this is the approx. default frequency of bias percentage as it relates to P/B in a row.

  1's      50%
  2's      25%
  3's      12 %
  4's        6%
  5's        3%
  etc...

For any progression or bet selection to win, there must be a deviation, in your favor, of the bias percentage calculated over a large number of games on the bet you have selected .   

For example,  we look at 2 IN A ROW, as the thread topic,  If the bias percentage is 28% instead of 25% we should bet that there will be more two in a row.

If the bias percentage is 21%, then we should bet that there will be less of two in a row.

Feel free to express your thoughts.

We all know the game is unbeatable as its played out of the shoe. There may be a progression or a gut feeling that will extend your play for awhile, but in the end,  the game will over come. The last hope is to find a way to change the texture of the shoe and then find a bias in some form so that the end result will be a +EV game.

Question.
In the long run , in this example,  1's are 50 %   and 2's are 27 % of total of shoes' results, would it be to my favor, in the long run,  to bet against it going three in a row for a 2% profit ?   

What about a flat bet method with an Average of at least One Unit win per shoe? This may be more realistic. Any additional thoughts?

Quote from: soxfan on May 20, 2015, 10:41:45 PM

Is Semyon < Garnabby  ??

I can't see how a person can use this as written due to, in most BM casinos, your bet must be rounded up to the nearest $5 amount due to commissions on banker wins. Online may be another story playing on a dollar table.

 Tomla, your question wasn't addressed to me but,  I think you place your next bet, an A-1 bet,  on P side your winning side.  Page 49,  Rule 3.

I can see how it is confusing.

rule 1.  an A-1 bet is Always opposite of the previous winning decision.   

rule 3.  if an A-2 bet wins the next bet will be an A-1 on the same side (winning A-2 bet).

got it. I found a little humor in it, seems like that 40 something system at first .

seems like it's a good method.  I like to call progression methods BnB methods (Bank and Balls) .

I will need a pencil and paper to keep the facts str8.