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Messages - alrelax

#3571
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 27, 2016, 02:12:36 PM
Well, stopped by the local casino last night.  3 other people playing.  The past several months there has been one female constantly there almost every time I go.  She self admittedly told me a couple months ago she had herself voluntarily banned from the larger casino in another part of the state with the Midi/Macau style.  This casino has mini only and with a $10.00 to $2k limit per spot and you can surpass the max if other people are under theirs, you can place additional on their spots, etc.  The other place was $10/$1k, $25/$2k, $50/$3k or $100/$5k limits with 2 or 3 tables on Midi and Mini.  She was a larger bettor there and told me before she lost in excess of $100k earlier in the year.  She claims she gets sucked in and loses her mind and can't think straight cause players are handling the cards, etc. 

Anyway,  last night she bought in for $1,500.00 and was wagering anywhere from $50 to $300 a hand.  The shoe was perfectly matching, 4 Bankers and then a couple Players, and then 4 Bankers and a tie and a Player.  Then a few spots of chop-chop and then 3 Bankers followed immediately by 3 Players, then 2 Bankers and 2 Players for 5 times.  She caught a few and then losses the majority of the wagers.  I finally asked her bluntly, how she was thinking.................

Like for instance, where the Bankers made 3 in a row and then a Player, she wagers on cutting back to the Banker.  I asked her why?  She says, most of the time it will not hold and will cut.  Of course it made 2 more Players to equally match the 3 Bankers.  She lost two in a row.  Then she says, Players will probably run.  Of course it cuts bank to Banker, leaving the 3 and 3 side by side. The when it made the 5 times doubles for each the Players and the Bankers, she is only wagering the 2 spot for the cut and she loses each and every wager.  Finally, after that section there is the standard 1's and 3's, etc.  Bankers  get to be right at the bottom producing 6 in a row and she wagers for the Players.  Bankers tie with that hand.  Then she tells me, now that it tied, it will cut back to the Players.  Of course she is once again wrong.  Makes another 3 Bankers for a total of 9 w/the tie.  She wagers on two of them and gets them and loses the last hand staying on the Banker when it does cut to the Players.   

This is the typical thought from the players.  I have just become used to the player having the trend of thought, that this will cut.  Just what floors me and I still don't understand the way of thinking, is that the majority really do believe a strong/repeating shoe should not be and it will not hold and a weak/choppy shoe will turn strong.  Not once, twice or occasionally, but always. They really do prevent themselves from prevailing the highest majority of the times. 

I still say, play what the shoe is producing, no matter if that is strong/repeating or chop/weak, etc.
#3572
Baccarat Forum / Re: Card Counting at Baccarat
October 26, 2016, 06:20:27 PM
Quote from: 21 Aces on October 25, 2016, 10:47:06 PM
I always look at score differentials.  What say you?   

Ever notice that in a long Bank Dragon or long Player Dragon the losing side tends to just lay down/ draw low?  Winning for the winning side looks so easy because every starting pair for the losing side is relatively stuff and third cards draws just fail.  Whatever it takes to win, the losing side can not do.  This results in 7, 9, 13, 17, 20 in a row for one side.

So....
- Even on shorter streaks one can see this.
- One can also see a lot of Natural wins or 3rd card draws.
- 9 vs. 8, 8 vs. 7, 7 vs. 6 and certain ties are often warnings.  Or one side is winning, but the losing side still scores very high (6, 7, 8).

Can go either way, cannot determine what to wager on by draws.  Last night played 2 shoes.  For the first half of the first shoe, If there was a 3 card draw for both the players and the bankers, the players would almost every single time build out a higher score and almost every time out of those, won the hand.  If it was a 3rd card draw only for the Banker, almost every time the Banker could not improve enough to win and usually reduced.  However, the second half of the shoe was almost the opposite for some time.  Then it was all naturals or 6's or better and almost every hand was only a 4 card draw total.

Next shoe was again, the opposite.  For all the 6 card draws, almost every other one was reducing one side to 0-1 or 2 and the other side would just prevail with one or 2 over the side that was reduced.  And in all reality, the side that was reduced was the best looking side to wager on, hands down. 

No Fortune 7's in those two shoes or for 5 consecutive shoes prior to those 2 shoes I played.  3 and 4 ties max for each shoe as well. 

Anything and every thing happens.  I personally can not see any indication to wager a side with advantage based on those types of circumstances you mentioned.
#3573
Baccarat Forum / Re: Card Counting at Baccarat
October 25, 2016, 12:05:13 PM
The criteria is 100% junk, plain and simple, worthless to wager with or on.  I have witnessed countless hands with and without those cards, a presence of certain numbers in a previous hand or not---mean zero-zip. 

It would most definitely if you needed to win with a certain higher point total-maybe, but not the way baccarat can win with a 1 over zero or a 4 over a 5.  Means nothing. 

People get confused and sucked in because something said or cited will win for a certain amount of times, then they or another attempt to apply universally to all hands or maybe they feel better when they add words like 'majority' or 'most times', etc.
#3574
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 25, 2016, 01:30:43 AM
Baccarat, the same as the line of work I am in.  At times everything is spot-on and perfect and other times, complete disaster.  While it is a science in the field I work in, there are more grey areas then regulated areas and those are open to interpretations by all the regulatory people.  Usually going something like, asking 4 different officials will usually yield you at least 3 different answers, and as well a rare situation when 2 of them agree on something in full. 

Resembles the baccarat table pretty well!
#3575
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 24, 2016, 12:11:31 PM
My only complaint is those that butt in and offer their success and their continued strike rates while offering nothing, absolutely nothing.  They also chastise, and attempt to degrade and humiliate those that do post--at least what they believe in and find to be correct, giving their best attempts to disrupt and just be an all around dissatisfied jerk-off.  All of the 4 or 5 can really offer is some 'hey hey's' or "I make my living at it and it is random but I am smarter than all of you" or the other one is  something like, "You have no idea what you are talk about and you are just a loser, etc.". 

Kind of made my morning reviewing some of the continued drab from our beloved 4 or 5 redundant, offering nothing, regular professional gamblers that are well off and comfortable gambling only, never having to work a regular job, have a career or own a business.  Now, to come to think about it, their drab dialog and drama intended is the exact same as that old newspaper column mom used to like, "Dear Abby".  LOL, once again. 
#3576
Baccarat Forum / Re: Playing baccarat for living?
October 21, 2016, 12:43:05 PM
There, I removed all my posts and answers.  No problem.  Go ahead now.  I am actually embarrassed for you'll.  One clipping in a 100 shoes of playing baccarat.  Make money every day.  I have a steady income from it.  It is not a game of chance.  WOW, you guys are NASA Rocket Scientists in Burger King jobs!  Seriously.
#3577
Baccarat Forum / Re: Playing baccarat for living?
October 21, 2016, 12:37:07 PM
I have to go back and erase anything I posted here.  My family members within IGT, CET and a couple others would be embarrassed.  I better tell them too, the game might be removed once they figure out they are offering a game of 'non-chance' and everyone can win at it full time and put them out of business.  Thanks for the info guys! 
#3578
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 19, 2016, 12:25:47 PM
Mid week.  Planning on trying to get to the casino before the weekend, perhaps tomorrow night? 

Have a few new moves with progressions looking to try out.  More of a disciplines wagering attack rather than a uniformed one. 
#3579
Quote from: NathanDetroit on October 17, 2016, 07:58:17 PM

Among   other  vital  matters a   professional or expert player always has  one foot pointed towards the door  ------ win or  lose.

Yes, absolutely 100% in most ways.
#3580
Casinos really don't counter or change at baccarat.  Players hurt themselves and the highest majority will not leave until they are wiped out.  Few realize anything until it's too late and they already walked. 
#3581
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 17, 2016, 12:28:07 PM
Friday night Oct 14th.  Arrived at the casino and went for a snack as no one was play bac yet.  Usually the action doesn't come to well after 7pm.  Got a couple orders of wings just put in the hot box in the cafeteria style food court.  Had a $20.00 voucher for food, so I put the $14.00 food tab on my points card and used the voucher to get some of my favorite Moon Pies to go with my coffee at the office and a bag of the large candies they have, to build my 3 Halloween baskets I normally do for my three kids.  I get those large plastic open top pumpkins at Wal Mart for $1.00 each and some tissue paper and stuff candy bags, some little toys and party favors in each.  I walked back and put the bag in my car and went back to check the bac table.  A few people sat down at the bac table and started.

Unlike a lot of other casinos, more working people and recreational players seem to come here, so bac action is not 24 hours by any means with the typical grinding aggravating pissed-off player trying for a quick $100 food money I guess.   

I went and got some coffee and came back, bought in with $700.00 and another $500.00 in reserve.  Shoe just started.  Jumped in and it was strong, everything making repeats 3 to 5 and 6 times.  Started to bet the Fortune 7 around the 10th hand or so and it hit!  On about the 15th hand I think.  I had $35.00 out there and $10.00 for the dealer right nest to it.  I made a few $5.00 wagers for some of the dealers that have made me Fortune 7's in the past and hit some of them for $205.00 drop for the dealer, this casino the dealers keep 100% of their tips. 

Player was showing a monkey and an Ace and Bankers had a monkey and a 3.  The Players pulls a 4 and the whole table and the dealer goes "Poo-poo" loud!  He pulls a card and before he could flip it a few people said, "Slowly and think 4", he flips it and it's a darn 4!  Almost everyone had $15.00 or a Quarter on the Fortune 7, it was one loud table!  Dealer drops $410, pit manager and floor comes over, everyone high fiving.  New dealer comes in about 6 hands after that.  After a few hands she goes, "I will make another Fortune 7 within 4 to 7 hands".  Shoe is real strong and making money off the other repeating wagers with only the last one falling off each time.  On the 7th wager she makes the second Fortune 7 and I had another $35.00 up there.  The hand was 6 for the Players first two cards and Blackjack for the Bankers first two.  So naturally everyone is yelling for a 6 and a 6 it was.  $2,800.00 on the Fortune 7's!  She says, no dealer tip this time?  I said, oh you heard about that, she says "I was on blackjack down at the end of the row, everyone heard about it".  We all gave her a quarter each anyway.  This is a long time dealer that we all know, no offensive meant. 

The shoe is about at the 35th hand or so, and I had to run out to the nearby town to put $500 on my wife's card to get some stuff for the kids.  Figured it was a good time, strong shoe and 2 Fortune 7's already, usually 90 percentile shoe would be unplayable after all that.  The town is only about 7 miles away so I said play slow and left a stack of green chips in my empty seat. 

Did my business and got back.  It was at about hand 60 or so.  Two more Fortune 7's!!!  Oh well.  At most of the shoe there were more Fortune's than ties!  Unusual to say the least!  The shoe got almost unplayable with most players losing their bankrolls wagering $50.00 every time on tie, less ties than Fortune's.  I think their were 3 ties and the 4 Fortune's now.  I wagered smaller waiting for the next shoe.  2 more Fortune's came, I missed them both, threw up a few Fortune's but mentioned to miss bot additional ones.  Finished the shoe with 6 ties and the 6 Fortune's. 

Played another couple of shoes and cashed out $2k up plus the $500 I sent out earlier.  Called it a night and headed back.

Sat. night Oct. 15th.  Got there around 7pm and almost no one playing again.  I had a full day of stuff and wasn't feeling like hanging around.  Got a quick snack and made some phone calls. Went back and there was one guy playing, he is a determined player and most of the time her does fairly well.  Brings a large bankroll for this place and will either lose it all or win quite a bit.  He just started and I bout in with $500.00.  Some how I didn't like the aura and the rotating non regular dealers doing the game tonight.  I started out slow and steady.  Won a few and then straight down.  $50.00 wagers, some quarter wagers and then Fortune only attempts. 

No rhythm and no gut feelings, none and that is strange for me at this place.  Anyway, I went down to $150.00 and said to myself I would not buy in again with the other $500.00 I had.  Straight losing for me in the beginning is not good from my experience.  I throw a $75.00 wager out, figuring two last wagers of $75.00 each to see what I can do.  I win it, and then wager again with the $150 and win that one too.  I throw out the $300.00 and win that one also.  I decide to call it a night, not feeling it and no one else is around.  This place will not do free hands and with only one other player there, I choose to leave.  I cashed out my $675.00 I had and laughed at the $175.00 for an hour and a half each way drive, gas and my time.  LOL.

I stopped at the C-Store on the way back and filled up with gas, got my coffee and a snack for the drive and stopped at the store to get my little kids some truck DVD's and a Halloween sticker book and a Toy's R US gift card.  Almost the $175.00 gone. 

That was my casino adventures for the weekend. 
#3582
Repeatedly guests were saying, "The house doesn't beat the player----it just gives the opportunity to beat himself".

Which IMO is so very true!
#3583
General Discussion / Re: [Oct 16] We turn 4 years old!!
October 17, 2016, 11:58:32 AM
Vic, did you find a way to deal with the low-life trolls that pick and prod kind of resembling a drunk with no purpose looking for sex with another of the same gender, that there seem to be about 5 or 6 on here???
#3584
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
October 14, 2016, 10:25:53 PM
On the way back from the job we just did, found a $100 bill in the parking lot of a fast food place.  I have this feeling that one or more of those 4 green chips to be bought with that bill---will prevail on the Fortune 7 wager tonight!?!?!!?
#3585
Baccarat Forum / Re: CAN SOMEONE PLEASE TEST THIS??
October 14, 2016, 10:16:28 PM
Here is an industry informative article from a Casino Trade Journal from 2010 describing in detail how the card manufacturers do the 'pre-shuffles', FYI.  It is not a informal type of regime with no security or checks and balances, etc.