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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Today at 11:25:43 pm »
Examples.

Aria casino, LV, july 2017

Cr was:

bbb
r
bb
rrrr
bb
r
b
r
bb
r
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
bbb
r
b
rr
b
r
b
rr
bbb
rrrrrrr
bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rrrrrr
bb
rr
b

that is a 1,1,3,3,1,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,3,3,2,3  succession

easy shoe :-)

Another one taken randomly, CP casino, LV september 2017

cr:

rr
bbb
rr
b
rr
bbbbbbb
rrr
bb
r
bbbb
rr
b
r
b
r
rr
b
r
b
rrrrrrr
b
r
b
r
bbb
r
b
rrr
bbb
rrr
bb

that is a 3,1,3,1,2,3,1,3,1,3,1,2,4 sequence

or this one, Aria casino, july 2017

cr:

bb
r
bb
r
bbb
r
bbb
r
bbbbbb
r
bbb
r
b
rt
bbbb
r
b
rrr
bb
r
b
r
bbbb
rrr
bb
r
bb
r
bbbb
r
b
rrrr
bb
rr

that is a 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,3,1,2,2,3,3,1,1,1,1,2,3 sequence

Finally an European casino surprisingly dealing 8-deck shoes (we needed a manual registration to convert the BR into the three common d.r.'s:

rr
bbb
r
bbb
rrrr
b
r
b
rr
bbb
r
b
rr
bbbb
rrr
bbb
rrr
b
rrr
b
r
b
rrr
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rrrrrr
b

that is a 2,1,2,3,2,2,3,1,1,3,2,1,3 sequence

Easy way to predict what more likely should come next, huh?

as.   



 

 





 

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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Today at 10:56:10 pm »
Hi KFB!

There are several ways to register results and, more importantly, to dispute the real randomness of the outcomes.

So far we've seen registrations made on BP or AB lenght sequences, maybe restricted within more likely situations.

Now we take the issue from another perspective, that is the lenght of either singled or streaky occurences happening along any shoe.

We already know that Big Road is full of bighorn.stuff, the maximum example of results too much sensitive of weird situations that cannot help us by a sufficient degree of precision.
In this post we'll talk about cockroach road (cr).

Preface

Any common derived road is made upon a mechanical comparison of what happened in the past (ties ignored) by different intervals, the original source being the same BP sequence.
We know for sure that when talking about cr successions, long live baccarat data present different features than long live roulette data.
In the former class B>P but red=blue whereas at roulette N=R, O=E and H=L, yet red=blue.

Therefore the red and blue spots number is equally distributed at both games despite of the different source's nature (asymmetrical at baccarat, symmetrical at roulette).

This is a kind of paradox, as itlr asymmetrical games must get different results than symmetrical games,  no matter how deep we would classify the outcomes; it's like that when something happened at baccarat will temporarily affect future results way more than a perfect independent game as roulette will do.

Cr single and streak consecutive results classification

Say the cr distribution looks as

r
b
rr
bbbb
rrrrrrr
b
rr
b
r
b
rrrr
bb
r
bbbb
rr
bbbbb...

translating into a 2,3,1,1,3,2,1,3... succession.

We can't give a lesser fk whether itlr 1s, 2s and 3s consecutive single or streak successions will get the same proportional amount than expected, actually it's what we should expect.
What it should really interest us is the gap between same values appearance at the same fkng shoe we're playing at, being the most reliable parameter to look for, knowing that single and streak successions must be somewhat dependent from the actual shoe distribution.

Cr is the best common derived road to look for as being strong polarized to get this or that at some spots of the shoe.

In addition notice that playing toward 1s, 2s or 3s gaps doesn't mean to chase a preordered scheme as the actual shoe is addressing our betting plan. Moreover, such numbers aren't polarized to get a given outcome as a couple of three (or more) singles in a row must be considered the same as a couple or three (or more) streaks in a row, no matter how's their lenght.

If you test your live shoes, you'll soon see that there's a constant relationship between a previous sequence of some lenght and the probability to get a given outcome on the next results.

When a pattern getting dishomogeneous features taken at either both opposite ways doesn't come out at an asymmetrical and poor randomly distributed game, probabilities dictate that more often than not the state tends to remain more silent than average.

I'll get more detailed info in a couple of days.

In the meanwhile check out the lenght of consecutive single and streak r and b spots happening at cr per each shoe.

Remember that 1=1, 2=2, but 3 or 25 or more must be still considered as 3.

as.
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Baccarat Forum / Re: Hit & Run
« Last post by andrebac on Today at 03:08:50 pm »
poluvolo:
i can do it
ill make a play by play of this sample
just eml me at this address
wolfat@libero.it
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It has been almost done. A method that can handle the worst gracefully and win a net profit in average session thereafter. I just tested a session with horrible beginning and average hits thereafter. 98 wins vs 126 losses. Max bet=9 units, Net profit=32 units. Worst drawdown=-63 units.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on July 29, 2021, 05:01:42 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for CR examples. 

"...Next time we'll see many other spots getting an astounding probability to appear, no matter how the s.tu.pi.d math experts keep to state. ..."

Looking forward to the next post



Continued Success,
6
Wagering & Intricacies / Drawdowns and Stop Losses
« Last post by alrelax on July 28, 2021, 01:00:28 am »
You need to be acclimated to Drawdowns and accept they are a part of almost every session.

Drawdown what is it?

It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing of profit from your buy in.

First.  When does it occur. It can be in the very beginning of your session or it can equally be in the middle or towards the end, when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your buy in money.  Drawdown can happen at any time. The only time it will not happen is if you win in the very beginning and keep winning and cash out never losing any of your buy in.

Second.  In my opinion it should only be viewed with the amount in front of you. Not collectively from previous sessions or running tallies, etc.

Third. Again in my opinion the Drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous Drawdowns either. The presentments are different and there is no reason to compare. You have to remember Drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate with no rhythm and no reason to attempt to define anything more than what I just said. They are completely random and will always be random.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that will not and cannot be avoided. You tell yourself you will not let the pressure and anything else get to you, but it will. The larger the Drawdown the greater and more intense those feelings will be. Be ultra conscious of that, stop getting sucked in.

Fifth.  Do not confuse Drawdown with Stop-Loss. Many will fail to see the difference but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined, unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of, "winning this session and it is time for me to stop", thought and belief. A better way to describe it is, you realize your buy in is your risk money and you will play until you win or lose and you are not doing what some people do, which is ridiculously sit down say with $1,000 and if you lose $300 you're done. Or if you lose say 3 or 5 wagers, your done, etc.  All that does is put an undue amount of pressure on you, because you have money there you are saying you're not willing to wager and you cannot wager and you have to make money on a certain percentage of it. Trust me it's a huge negative in sitting down at the table.

Stop Loss is simply like I said, a set amount of money if you lose out of your buy in money you will stop playing, no leeway, no questions asked.  That is if it's truly a set Stop Loss amount.

Realize that there will be fluctuating Drawdowns at any time prior to winning a decent amount of money or getting a profit, that you had in mind and one that you have to risk on a continual basis. Allow it to be so and you will take off a lot of pressure and a lot of frustration from your frame of mind in handling your money at the table.

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Alrelax's Blog / Re: Factual Material As Absolute?
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on July 28, 2021, 12:29:53 am »
Very good post

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on July 28, 2021, 12:22:13 am »
Hi KFB and thanks!

If you want to beat this fkng game itlr you are in the right section. :-)

Whether cards would be so randomly distributed, the 7 WIAR situations will face the opposite losing counterpart and we can't expect to win anything.
At the actual live spots, this probability will be either diminished or endorsed by studying the first patterns.
Remember we need a moderate key card clumping to happen along any shoe to get the best of it, strong or too diluted clumps tend to produce too polarized and/or whimsical subsequent situations in either way.

Depending upon which random walk you choose to use, the appearance of streaks of certain lenght teach us that key cards are clumped at different speeds.

It's particularly helpful to know that when the average number of streaks of certain lenght per shoe is X,  odds are that itlr we'll get on average a higher amount of shoes showing more likely an inferior than superior number than X.

Therefore streaks appearing at the initial portions of the shoe must be considered as a key card clumping, especially whether such streaks are consecutively placed.
We know that portions of the shoe particularly rich of key cards more often than not tend to deny a moderate subsequent key card distribution as the key card/remaining cards ratio is hugely shifted toward the right. Meaning results will be more affected by short term undetectable variance.
 
Cockroach road.

This road is one of the best example why results are sensitive to probability after events and place selection tools both denying a perfect randomness.
And/or a flaw of the game, of course.

Few players follow this road, probably as it's visually more difficult to track than other d.r.'s or simply as it starts very late in the shoe.

Cockroach road is relying about the probability to get symmetrical (red spots) or asymmetrical (blue spots) taken at a 3-pace along the way.
It's the most volatile road we could track of, sometimes we'll get almost singles and doubles, at other occasions multiple consecutive long streaks show up.
It's this feature that could get us hints about how a shoe is distributed.

Since at this road the quite long asymmetrical and symmetrical situations tend to be more clustered than at other roads, we could infer that the remaining part of asym/sym single streaks tend to stay more isolated than clustered.
Therefore if 2+ tend to be followed by 2+, 1 should be followed by at least another 1.

Counterintuitive but it works.

So consider a given red or blue streak of certain lenght happening at cr. Wait until this streak had come out isolated (that is not followed by a perfect streak of the same opposite lenght).
Now bet toward getting another isolated b or r streak accordingly to the previous streak happened.
Just one time, even knowing that a fair percentage of shoes will provide a chain of isolated streaks.

Itlr the 1-1 vs 1-X situations will get a ridiculously low variance not fitting the fkng general values under normal circumstances.

But say casinos know this bet selection trying to get infinite isolated single streak patterns followed by consecutive streaks of the same lenght happening at cr.
Really? That's the perfect negation of statistical laws, and btw it's impossible to arrange cards to get this or that belonging to a specular plan for long and by a 3-paced interval.
What about other roads?

You can be 100% certain that some patterns will be more likely than others, giving a lesser fk about what math dictates.
Next time we'll see many other spots getting an astounding probability to appear, no matter how the s.tu.pi.d math experts keep to state.

as.   
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on July 26, 2021, 03:36:09 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for your elaborate response in reply#369 above. I  agree/especially with the last 3-4 sentences.

"... The perfect plan would be to spot a betting line capable to get 7-10 all W sequences per shoe that must come out by a well higher degree of probability than what math values dictate.
Of course we need to wager two times each spot toward getting a more likely scenario.
And naturally whenever a shoe starts with a negative spot, we can't reach that aim.  ..."



Also , in the paragraph regarding the cockroach road(CR).

"... Summarizing, the cr is the best indicator about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted along any shoe.
Then it's up to us to assess whether a single or a series of  'key' results was/were mathematically shifted to prolong a b or r streak or to cut it off. ..."



I've read much of what u have written re: the CR road.

This is an area my skillset needs to improve.  I agree with much of your writings re: the CR road /its potential for  suggesting certain future events being more(or less) likely.

However, my difficulty is in being able to assign a specific(numerical value) on that perceived  increase(or decrease) probability % to a degree that would affect my decision prior to the very next event. Of course , ex post facto--Im 100% accurate just like everybody else at the table.  :)
Thx for writing on this topic.

 


Continued Success,
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Baccarat Forum / Re: 5 Basics About Baccarat From Experience
« Last post by alrelax on July 26, 2021, 02:36:41 am »
Absolutely. You put a multi thousand-dollar bet up there say $4,000 or $5,000 and you win two, three or four of them in a row, your emotional state will be to the hundredth power how you figured it all out.  Then subconsciously you just know inside of yourself you can do another 10, 15 or 20 and you're seeing hundreds of thousands of dollars of win money.

Alrelax.
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