Polarization of some random walks

Mathematicians and many gambling experts have demonstrated that either each baccarat hand dealt is a new (undetectable) hand and/or that many known systems have no possibility to overcome and invert the HE.

Whereas the first argument is completely false, it's correct to state that known systems (based upon i.dioti.c math assumptions) have no one possibility to win itlr.

We can't win at a math EV- game by using math tools, but we might win by disputing the perfect randomness of the shoes dealt, that is proving that NOT every hand is a new hand completely unrelated to the previous one(s).

Of course such unrandomness will present itself by different levels, many times difficultly to be detected (or getting too significant levels to be grasped) but sure as hell itlr the so called 50/50 (coin flip) proposition with all the related statistical consequences will go right down the toilet.

A paradoxical finding is that more efforts are made to provide "random" shoes, better will be our probability to get an urn getting a close than average or greater than average R/W balls ratio.
The reason is because more key cards are dispersed, higher will be the probability to get detectable patterns having a superior likelihood to show up clustered at some point.

Such supposedly (verified) propensity could be ascertained by classifying the streaks lenght by merging two adjacent streak classes: We've seen to take care of 2s and 3s vs superior streaks or 3s and 4s vs superior streaks.

We know that in an interesting portion of total shoes dealt, 5/5+ streaks do not show up (especially whenever a given random walk is acting), so giving us a kind of "frerolling", meaning that we can't lose a dime in the process.
Counterpart losing situations may come out when low value streaks show up as isolated between such 5/5+ streaks and now the problem will shift to the more likely singles distribution, so denying a proper number of streaks.

Singles vs streaks sequences

If we'd think that some streak classes will stop before than expected, we might infer than even singles will show up more clustered than isolated.

Actually this is true, providing to consider one side of the two possible successions, meaning that what happened as clustered at one side tend to be slightly clustered and vice versa.
In fact both sides coming out as long singled outcomes are the least scenario to encounter. 

That's a big edge over the house for the reasons that one shoe cannot be equally pattern distributed for long.

We'll get through this next time.

as.

Thus the R/W balls ratio will be always uncertain but the R/W balls distribution will take more likely lines as being somewhat restrained by an asymmetrical probability of success working at an already asymmetrical card distribution.

Obviously the common B/P sequence is the worst succession to take care of, as considering just one side of the operations: The simple back-to-back successions.

Therefore in some sense we should try to amplify the asymmetrical cards distribution factor, challenging it to bypass our two betting steps asymmetrical plan for long.

Thinking that everything will show up anywhere and anytime is reasonable; thinking that the R/W ratio will always deviate towards the W side (where it's more difficult to spot valuable R more probable sequences) is not only impossible but also never happening in practice.

At the start of the shoe we'd assume the R/W ratio should be 3:1, then we must act accordingly to what the actual shoe is producing.

More on that later

as.

So, if I read this correctly, if I purchase $1000 of something called "BlockDag" now, when it actually launches I'll have $5,000,000.

Swell.  Where do I sign up?

AD

Thx albalaha. I've researched some/ will study some more over the weekend. This one may have some merit.




Continued Success,

"At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck." – Casino Royale (Movie)   

it is the newest thing in the crypto era and being projected as new earning opportunity at its prelaunch stage. If we search about it, we will see hundreds of articles over this in various blogs, e-newspapers etc whereing it is being claimed that it has got an earning potential of 500x, 1000x and even upto 30,000x from the current price offered at this prelaunch stage. Too good to be true. It is being termed as an evolution stage of crypto, from blockchain to DAG and now blockDAG
   However, I do not buy such claims that it will go so high, otherwise every rookie will become a billionaire by putting a grand into it. When millions of people try to earn from a definitive way of earning, it can not go as fast as it is projecting. I would still take a small bet in it to see how it works in future. Any idea/experience of BlockDAG? It is openly saying that it is at $0.004 now and will launch at $0.08

KFB, thanks of your very kind words!
And thanks Al for your comment.

Here you are!

Trying to grasp what the shoe is producing is paramount, but knowing the more likely pattern ranges is very important either.

A good shoe is good only after it is displayed on the screen and the "good" adjective is a purely subjective assessment.

On the other end, many pattern distributions per each shoe move around more likely ranges: Those are objective findings that could be worth or not, I guess that those are more important than what people think.

When we play baccarat we shouldn't hope for anything as we should already know what could be more probable to happen or not, that is we're playing probabilities.

Put 48 balls in a urn where 36 balls are red winning balls (+1) and 12 are white losing balls (-3). Then extract all such balls and arrange them in a sequence.
After a very large number of trials, it'll surely happen that the first 12 balls extracted will be  all white balls and of course every other possible combination will happen.
So we should be prepared to set up a strategic plan capable to be ahead for every possible combination, obviously taking care of the relationship about the more likely distributions.

Suppose to increase the number of white losing balls at the same time decreasing proportionally the  number of red balls (total must be 48).
Now after all balls were extracted, catching the red balls spots will be more difficult, especially when after a given number of balls distributed white balls seem to be "too" silent.

Obviously in this example we do not take care of a possible dependency as we'll never know the real R/W balls ratio.

More later

as.

Because.....................From so called gaming mathematicians to gaming experts of all types running tests and samples on baccarat running through hundreds of thousands or millions of hands, every single flat bet or mechanically triggered bet will fail ITLR!  Period.  End of story. 

As well, the people playing the game that are able to extract any kind of cash profits out of it, they do so playing a trivial amount of hands/shoes as compared to those testing with their statistics.  Period.

There are most certainly numerous ways to pull profits from the game and although none of them are guaranteed triggers which most everyone is searching for, they work very well for those people who understand what they are doing as well as the game and their emotions, while employing a rock solid M.M.M.  Period.

Great writing as always Asym. I do not think I have ever seen so many succinct statements in any one post.

*so the idea so loved by mathematicians that each new hand is EV- no matter what is a total completely bighorn.sh.it.

**Hoping to get an endless series of unrandom spots (no matter how long we've waited for them) is an utopy; confiding that an infinite series of "same situations" will stop before reaching the common expected sd values is a sure fkng certainty.

***For sure itlr such 0-5/6 "d" range is constantly shifted toward the left side, meaning there will be dealt a lot more shoes belonging to the 0 or 1 category than belonging to the 4 or 5/6 class.

--"...I'll try to better schematize that within a couple of days...."


I look forward to your further elaboration.

Many thanks,kfb

BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.

There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.

*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.


Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung 


Continued Success To All,