gCall to experts out there!


Recently I read lots of suggestions towards investing in sports betting rather than roulette. But figured out that there are not many discussions.


Few basic questions.  What is the BR and unit size one should consider? What is safe and steady.  Live game betting or offline?  Does having a knowledge of game absolutely important? Is there any known progressions or is it flat betting always? What should be a decent target one should keep in mind?


Any inputs are welcome.

Never risk more than 5% per match and 20% a day. Recommended 1000 Units each match should range from 1% to 3% depending on the odds of winning. Always aim for lesser bets but more quality bets. 3 wins to 0 loss will always be better than 7 wins to 4 loss. Follow this and this 1000 should be your lifetime bankroll and start earning your passive income:)

 
Sport-betting is a good way to walk ... see two attach files ... should let you get started ...
I know people that make serious money using the 2-6 method ... you can even build your own version of it ...

Quote from: Sputnik on August 12, 2013, 02:14:35 PM

Sport-betting is a good way to walk ... see two attach files ... should let you get started ...
I know people that make serious money using the 2-6 method ... you can even build your own version of it ...

Thanks Sputnik. 2-6 looks more of a martingale right? Does sports betting follow the same set of progressions as in roulette? Is there any that specifically works in sports betting only?

Thanks Weddings.

Quote from: Priyanka on August 14, 2013, 01:08:20 AM
Thanks Sputnik. 2-6 looks more of a martingale right? Does sports betting follow the same set of progressions as in roulette? Is there any that specifically works in sports betting only?

I forgot to mention, most of them use it to build up a decent bankroll quick ...
Cheers

 
Here is a graph using 2-6 method ...

You can make an excellent tax-free living sports betting in the UK, especially on Betfair where the odds tend to be better than a bookies.
I only know one professional gambler but he's been doing it for more than 10 years and is very well off. His risk of ruin is now practically zero since his system is totally bulletproof.
He bets on Premier League football, it is really quite predictable. And with 760 games per season, there is more than enough opportunity.

Personally I think knowledge of the game is essential. Statistically, it probably isn't, if you don't care about the emotional side of betting.

With a system that discloses accurate predictions you can gain a +EV from your bets, and use something similar to the Kelly Criterion to calculate the optimum wagering strategy. Kelly does have its critics and it can suggest to place large bets, some prefer to use a half or even quarter Kelly. I would certainly not use any progression in the mould of the Martingale, the risk of ruin is great and requires a large bankroll. At least with Kelly, you only really bet what you can afford to at that time. There is also the mental distress of losing a series of Martingale bets. If you gamble properly you shouldn't even need that anyway. Weddings is correct in saying that bets should be proportional to your BR, which the Kelly Criterion teaches. If a system is tested and proven, it will work long term.

Number Six

There is a book called Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone which goes into great depth on the Kelly criterion.

It is a good book because it charts the beginnings of the formula and the people who used it.

Copies are easily available on Amazon for anyone interested.

cheers.

Seems interesting. Just ordered a copy.

The only real point it needs to cover is that the EV has to be positive.
If it is, Kelly works, it is entirely logical. You can find the formula anywhere.

Not that I am against books or anything...

It is also worth noting that it is an investment strategy, as oppose to a progression ie it does not work for negative expectation bets.

Sports betting needs lots of hard work and information gathering. All numbers of roulette are equally mighty or weak but all players/teams in a game are not. I very firmly believe that sports betting can earn you better income than casino gambling and is much  lesser volatile.
               I stopped writing my sports picks because my efforts weren't appreciated even after a very high success rate of my tips. Now my picks are for myself only. It also appear that the forum has much more interest in roulette than sports.

I advise to any gambler who is actually looking to make some money to stay away from roulette. Or any other game that is played against the house.
At sports betting you actually have a chance to be profitable. So that is a good move to check out sports betting instead of roulette.


The bankroll size doesn't matter much. It is the ratio of the BR and bet size that matters. The 5% per bet seems to be fine. I would even suggest a larger bet size if the odds of your bets are around 2 (even money bets) and you are flat betting.
Progressions are different. I also don't recommend progressive betting. They don't change your long term results. The long term results are pretty much defined by your individual bets. How you combine them into progressive bet sessions doesn't matter in the long run. It just makes it harder to evaluate your real success rate. And it is harder to find the appropriate starting bet size as well.
The only progression that I advise is that when your bankroll increases you can increase your bet size as well.


About being safe... It is all relative. A smaller bet size is always safer, but the risk is never going to be 0. So there is no 100% safe.


Live/offline: I prefer offline. It is less stressful. You have more time to think. But that is just preference.


Knowledge of the game: If you make +EV bets and have the bankroll to keep yourself in the game, you should be a winner. The EV depends on the probabilities of the game outcomes. If you don't know the game, you don't know the EV, you can't really make a good bet. Either you need to know the game, or you need a good source for this kind of information about the games.

Thanks Dragoner for a detailed reply.

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
So that is a good move to check out sports betting instead of roulette.

That's an interesting observation. I am not planning to move away from roulette. Roulette is my passion. Roulette is not about making money for me, it is more about going on an adventure. It is more about the satisfaction I get from exploring the wheel and satisfaction I get from playing the game. Though am on a mission and challenge to prove something to my Dad, I will continue to play roulette whether I taste success or failure in that attempt. It is like paying a few quid to go on a fun ride. What you gain is the thrill of the ride and not monetary.

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
The bankroll size doesn't matter much. It is the ratio of the BR and bet size that matters. The 5% per bet seems to be fine. I would even suggest a larger bet size if the odds of your bets are around 2 (even money bets) and you are flat betting.

Premier league is something that we chat about in our home at times and I can get advice from my friends. That is the way I want to go for sports betting. Thanks for all your advice on the bet size. I think I will go with 5% of the BR and not more than 20% on a day. And preferably will start flat betting and see how it goes. May be I might increase the bet size a little when someone is on a streak.

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
The only progression that I advise is that when your bankroll increases you can increase your bet size as well.

Would you advice decreasing the bet size to that 5% of BR when my BR decreases after a streak of losses?

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
A smaller bet size is always safer, but the risk is never going to be 0.

Thanks. I think I have learnt from Sam that whether it is 5$ or 50$ the risk of losing on a specific bet is always the same, it doesn't vary with your bet size.

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
Live/offline: I prefer offline. It is less stressful. You have more time to think. But that is just preference.

Thanks for this valuable suggestion. I think I will stick to offline based on what you have advised. I think I realize that live will obviously lead me to less time to think and I will be prone to make mistakes. How funny it is that people advice playing live in roulette and the other way around in sports betting

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 01:44:54 PM
If you don't know the game, you don't know the EV, you can't really make a good bet. Either you need to know the game, or you need a good source for this kind of information about the games.

Sure Dragoner, I think I get what you are saying. But again the EV is subjective isn't it. It is really hard to say the probability of Manchester united beating Swansea is 60% or 80%. What we can say is a range. Or is there any way we can make it more objective. Anything that has some subjectivity in it is susceptible to be inaccurate.

Quote from: Priyanka on August 14, 2013, 02:51:10 PM
Would you advice decreasing the bet size to that 5% of BR when my BR decreases after a streak of losses?

Yes. Or be prepared to deposit again. The risk rises with the bet/bankroll ratio.

Quote from: Priyanka on August 14, 2013, 02:51:10 PM
Sure Dragoner, I think I get what you are saying. But again the EV is subjective isn't it. It is really hard to say the probability of Manchester united beating Swansea is 60% or 80%. What we can say is a range. Or is there any way we can make it more objective. Anything that has some subjectivity in it is susceptible to be inaccurate.

As long as we are only talking about sports betting, then yes, EV is subjective, because we can only calculate it with subjective probabilities.
Still, without knowing the game your estimated probability can be way off. While somebody who knows the game will have more accurate guesses.
If you have no information on the game, then your chances are better in roulette. And this should not be taken as a suggestion to play roulette instead. Rather a suggestion to not bet without information on the game.