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Long runs on EC.

Started by Ralph, February 17, 2013, 01:52:34 PM

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Ralph

After 1600 spins the plus is 7.80 wich is 156 units.

Ralph

It took 132 spins to win 20 units.


It is possible a RFH can come, even a wheel with 50% chance, can meet a losing streak which will even out after millions of spins.
It can dive and stay below zero for years. I have 1000 units as stop loss. The opposite is also possible, it can win for the same length.

Ralph

121 spins and just one unit.

Ralph

When using one up on loss, one down on win. The player can assume a win comes after a loss, and the opposite. That is a kind of GF.
He can also assume the EC will even out and then the method has some merit. That is in one sense right and in another view wrong.
The even out process is a very long one, and the difference in numbers can increase forever, and the % part of the difference can still decrease. This method has a risk to rather fast go out of hands.

Would it be better to try to extend it, so betting the same stake for 10 spins, go up if minus, stay if even and go down on a win.
If we win, the EC is dominant, so we may change to opposite chance. From a mathematical view it will not help at all (from that view you must have luck to win in the short run and in the long you will lose), but delay the problem of a loss, most of the time. That because the risk of the depleting the bankroll, will be somewhat lower. The winning will most of the time be lower, as the bet are lower. 

On a NZ the zillions of spins will make it break even. So in the limit time we will win or lose, and break even if we chose to stop at such point if reached.


I have tried this before, and did some play today. It is from my experience less risky, but gain less. This time I got  60 units in 180 spins.
The highest pile was 6 units, I start with one went up, and down to one in this 180 spins.

Ralph

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on February 23, 2013, 07:02:17 AM
Don't even think about EC progressions until you can 100% guarantee you pick more winners than losers, or at least 50/50.

If you can do that, then a mild  1 -1 progression with a touch of ingenuity can really puff up the smoke cloud.


It is not possible to guarantee a pick over 50%, if that's possible you must own millions by now.  1  -1 is a very famous loser method.




Ralph

I have here played (for demonstration, as I never serious use it) using two EC. Using two Ec at the time is as all hedge not very good.
We win about a quarter of the bets, half are of no use, and only 1/4 wins.   In the shorter run as a session is, a good streak on the color will decrease at the odd or the other EC play .  The though you can win more, due to playing on more chances is not valid.


A loss of 16.8 units in  380 spins. And I expect the chance to win was minor, so it is not done in real mode.  Hedging is never a good method.