+ Register

[Sputnik]

Marigny style and the math values behind the events.
Smaller series contra larger series.

This is for better understanding about STD and probability, bell curve movement or reading random flow into current states, devision.

1. Series of two has the value of 1
2. Series of three has the value of 0
3. Series of four has the value of 1
4. Series of five has the value of 2
5. Series of six has the value of 3
6. Series of seven has the value of 4
7. And so it continues

Here is an simple chart that I did a long time ago with some values that you can use as reference.



John Patrick style ... pick one dominant, one side of the distribution and stick to it.
See the random flow with two opposite colors as two roads with there own random flow of current states.
Good MM and three banks should do it.

I post the hint above and you develop your own killer method.

Thanks to GLC = George ...

This is a system that developed while I was tweaking the "Very near infallible Roulette system".  That system is way too complicated and almost impossible to play except at home with pen and paper and time.


This is an Even Chance system.


We will use the R/B even chance.


Wait until you have 2 colors in a row.  Either RR or BB.


We then bet for a change of color.  We will bet at most 6 times for the change.  If it doesn't change in 6 bets, wait until it does change to resume betting.


We are going to use a progression that is based on the "Philiberte" system found in the Monte Carlo Anecdotes.  Atlanta's progression in his latest excellent system "Matrix Trendgrabber" was also used.  It's not exact but close.


1-2-4


1-3-6


2-4-8


2-6-12


3-6-12


3-9-18


4-8-16


4-12-24


5-10-20


5-15-30


7-14-28


7-21-42


9-18-36


9-27-54


12-24-48


12-36-72


15-30-60


15-45-90


We will follow A's rules in that we stay at the same level as long as we don't lose 3 times in a row.  After each win, we return to the lowest number in the level and start again.  If we lose 3 times in a row, we move to the next level and play the same way.  Even though these numbers if added together equal a large number of units, not to worry because we will be winning as we move up the progression thus keeping our drawdowns under control.


Getting back to playing rules, as long as we are winning 1 time out of 3 betting for 2 colors in a row to change, we will stay at the 1st level.  After each win, we will wait until we have another 2 of the same color to resume betting for a chop.  If we get 6 losses in a row it will mean that the same color has hit 8 times in a row.  This will happen from time to time.


As long as we are in the 1st level, we will be in the profit accumulation mode.  In profit accumulation mode, we only bet for 2 in a row to change.  Once it changes, we wait again for 2 in a row before resuming betting for the chop.


If we lose 3 in a row at the 1st level, we will be down 7 units and will immediately move to the 2nd level of 1-3-6 and we are now in the recovery mode.  We will continue betting for a change.  When we get a change we will start betting for the chops to continue.  This is the difference between profit accumulation mode and recovery mode.


If we are in profit accumulation mode, we only bet for a streak to chop.


If we are in recovery mode, we bet for streaks to end and for chops to continue.  Our progression continues according to the betting rules no matter what mode we are in and even as we move from 1 mode to the next.


Once we are at a new level, we stay at that level until we fully recover our losses and then we drop back to level 1 and wait until we have 2 in a row to begin betting for a chop.


Here's a short example:


R   No bet
B   No bet
B   No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R   Win +1 in profits  Now wait for 2 in a row
B   No bet
R   No bet
R   No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R   Lose, bet 2 for chop
R   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Win +1 so (+1+1=+2) wait for 2 in a row
B   Bet 1 for chop
B   Bet 2 for chop
B   Bet 4 for chop
B   Lost 3 in a row so we are -7 and enter recovery mode and also move to the 1-3-6 level.
B   Lost 1 bet 3 for chop
R   Win +2 -7 = -5 since we are in recovery mode we start betting on chops to continue so we now bet 1 in the 2nd level of 1-3-6
B   Win +1-5 = -4  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Lost -1-4=-5  Bet 3 for streak to chop
R   Win +3-5=-2  Bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win +1-2=-1  Bet 1 for chops to continue
R   Win +1-1=0  We have recovered all losses, not we are back to profit accumulation mode waiting for 2 in a row to form so we can bet for it to chop and we are also back to 1st level of 1-2-4.  We are still +2 overall.  No bet yet.
B   No bet
R   No bet
R   Bet 1 for chop
B   Win +1+2=+3  No bet.  Wait for streak to form
B   Bet 1 for chop
R   Win +1+3=+4  No bet.  Still in profit accumulation mode.  Wait for streak of 2
R   Bet 1 for chop
R   Lose, bet 2 for chop
R   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Win  +1+4=+5 No bet.  Still in profit mode.  wait for streak
B   Streak has formed bet 1 for chop
B   lose, bet 2 for chop
B   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Lose, -7 go to recovery mode and level 2.  continue betting for streak to end.  Bet 1 unit, the 1st bet of level 1
B   Lose, -8 Bet bet 3 for streak to end
R   Win  +3-8=-5  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win  +1-5=-4  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Lose   bet 3 for streak to end
B   Lose   bet 6 for streak to end
R   Win +3-4=-1  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win +1-1=0  Reset to profit accumulation mode and drop to 1st bet level.


Seems to be solid as a rock.  So far!


Thanks to GLC/George at Roulette cc ...
Cheers

[Atlantis]

Hi Sputnik,

Good stuff!

OK - using yours and GLC progression levels and last matrix trendgrabber method I use your same RB results as above...

This auto-selects and tells you when to bet: when the decision before last (dbl) and the alternating chop/streak (opposite/same) both MATCH up.

Whilst the dbl is always fixed the chop/streak prediction alternates each spin.

If and when a 0 occurs as below (whether win, lose or no bet) the previous 2 real numbers are used in the calculation.



R   
B                             dbl=r   ; chop=r   bet r @ 1
B      L-1                  dbl=b ; streak=b   bet b @ 2         -1
R      L-2                  dbl=b; chop=b     bet b @ 4          -3
B      w+4                 dbl=r; streak=b                          +1
R                             dbl=b; chop=b     bet b @ 1
R      L-1                  dbl=r; streak=r    bet b @ 2          +0
R      w+2                 dbl=r; chop=b                            +1
R                             dbl=r; streak=r    bet r @ 1       
B      L-1                  dbl=r; chop=r      bet r @ 2           +0
B      L-2                  dbl=b; streak=b   bet b @ 4          -2
B      w+4                 dbl=b; chop=r                            +2
B                             dbl=b; streak=b   bet b @ 1
B      w+1                 dbl=b; chop=r                            +3
B                             dbl=b ; streak=b  bet b @ 1
R      L-1                  dbl=b; chop=b     bet b @ 2          +2
B     w+2                  dbl=r; streak=r     bet r @ 1         +4
B      L-1                  dbl=b; chop=r                              +3
R                               dbl=b; streak=r                         
B                              dbl=r; chop=r      bet r @ 2
R     w+2                  dbl=b; streak=r                           +5
B                              dbl=r; chop=r      bet r @ 1
R     w+1                   dbl=b; streak=r                         +6
R                              dbl=r; chop=b
B                              dbl=r; streak=b
B                              dbl=b; chop=r
R                              dbl=b; streak=r
R                              dbl=r; chop=b
R                              dbl=r; streak=r     bet r @ 1
R     w+1                   dbl=r; chop=b                           +7
B                              dbl=r; streak=b
B                              dbl=b; chop=r
B                              dbl=b; streak=b    bet b @ 1
B     w+1                   dbl=b; chop=r                           +8
B                              dbl=b; streak=b    bet b @ 1
B     w+1                   dbl=b; chop=r                           +9
R                              dbl=b; streak=r
B                               dbl=r; chop=r      bet r @ 1
B     L-1                     dbl=b; streak=b    bet b @ 2       +8
B    w+2                     dbl=b; chop=r                           +10   
R                               dbl=b; streak=r
B                               dbl=r; chop=r        bet r @ 1

Lucky here Sputnik, not to go beyond first level   
Profit = +10

I think also to adopt your suggestion for stop after 6 L's until virtual win a good idea as well.

In any case your way may be better!

Thanks,
A.

[Chrisbis]

Liking it a lot Ego.................very nice explanation too. 

[Sputnik]

-

Did you ever ask what a trend look like ? and what its based upon ?

This is for better understanding about STD and probability, bell curve movement or reading random flow into current states, devision.
I believe in charting where you can see and observe the movement of the current states of the random flow.
Each state is its own property of events.

With the help of devision you can understand when the random flow current state grow and get stronger or getting weaker based upon what you aim to catch.
So you can read the random flows current states based upon math and probability calculations.
That way you can stop chasing for events and start to use tendency play where you embrace events.

Just to say ... Hey i can chart the random flow with pen and paper in a real casino,,, and read random current movement/states and understand when its hovering around the mean or getting imbalance in one other direction ... stronger or weaker based upon your choice of playing model.

You move from gamblers fallacy and use Markow Chains methodology of random property states.
You move into the territory where you trending based upon almost the same principals as some areas in stock market .

[Sputnik]

Other playing model is to observe the regression towards the mean.

Singles has the value of 1
Series has the value of 1 (no matter length)

I will show the charting method with the probability and math behind the random states property.
Playing model is pretty much the same as above, but with different approach ...

[Trebor]

One question if I may Sputnik.


Does recovery mode apply continually once beyond the first progression level?
i.e. you're betting for a chop until a full recovery is achieved.


Trebor

[TwoCatSam]

Sputy

Why not log onto Dublin, make us a video and show us how this thing works.

Sam

[ADulay]

I post the hint above and you develop your own killer method.

This is a system that developed while I was tweaking the "Very near infallible Roulette system".  That system is way too complicated and almost impossible to play except at home with pen and paper and time.

Cheers

Well, with a horde of "in-laws and outlaws" currently in my house, I sequestered myself in the computer room and ran your sample set based on a simple set of SIX different, basic, wagering plans.    Although these are the main ones I use in baccarat, they work just as well for any EC game as these are all MECHANICAL plays with no thinking involved.

Here are the results:

B1 Chase = +8
S42 Basic = +5
F2 = +16
F1 (Chase) = +2
Straight 'Z' = +14
Basic AOD = +11

These are nothing fancy and there's literally no thinking involved.  You pick the play, you play it.  If you should determine during a round of play that one play would be better than another, you change over to it, but this assumes you subscribe to the theory of trending of some sort.

Only one of the "system" plays required a single wager of 6 units, but then it's one of the worst plays (F1) and probably the one that most people play initially until they actually learn something.   F1 being "Follow the 1".   Only good in any streaky game, of course.

I'm afraid we're attempting to manipulate our play in such a convoluted method that it seems the more work we do, the better our results "should" be.   This is apparently not correct as evidenced by these 6 simple plays.

If you read these forums year after year, there is a fact that rises to the top that cannot be discounted.  That is that everybody has a great theory or idea but nothing ever comes out of them.  All kinds of ideas are tossed up only to be brought back a few years later by another crop of budding casino winners.  Of course that's what keeps the forums running, the ad money coming in and the community alive.

However, the fact remains that almost nobody is actually making any money out of the casinos.

So, as roulette is a mathematical game, slighly biased against the player, perhaps one should get back to tweaking the basics of wagering and wealth management instead of trying for the "home run" of casino betting.

Slow but sure brings in the money on a steady basis.  My brother hasn't figured that out yet and loses his bankroll on pretty much each scheduled casino trip although he is usually "up" sometime during the session!   Learn to win small AND often and I believe things will work out much better.   It may not be as "exciting" as cashing out a $20,000 marker at the table, but then it sure beats taking out a loan to pay the food bill.

AD (slightly off topic but I had just tested that sample run and needed to comment on it)