+ Register

[ybot]

This is something that has always made me wonder.

The Van Keelen Test says that you need 55% wins flat betting over 1k placed bets.

What if you were able to hit 52-53% wins flat betting over 1k placed bets consistently? And by consistently I mean if you are able to accomplish this with at least a 60% session strike rate, 6/10 times. Would you consider that an advantage?

Although I think that it helps being at or more then 50% strike ratio, the key for me is in variance of the W/L distribution.

Now comes my next question...

How many placed bets does it take to consider the variance of your bet selection? If you have 5k placed bets and you have never seen more then 10 losses in row and it has only happened once do you consider that a good thing?

I would like some opinions on this. And I also to think it would be interesting to see what others set their bench marks at when it comes to testing requirements.

At 1000 trials, playing an even money bet (18/37 european wheel)
600/1000 hits means 7.2 standard deviations playing 18 numbers.
I would say say your bet selection has hit at a higher rate than a random selection goes.
You have already an advantage for the next 1000.
At previous 1000 trials you might have some positive or negative fluctuation, so, next 1000 test could be from 500/1000 to 700/1000
nice you decide you have got the advantage, a harder work is to set the exact edge.

kind regards