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[Bayes]

Assuming a single zero wheel, let's find out how PB is expected to perform, according to probability. This will include the likelihood of winning/losing runs. But first, what's the probability of winning a game?

A game is defined as playing against a pattern of 3 spins. You have won a game as soon as you get your first win, and you lose the game if you don't get a hit in the 3 spins, so there are 4 possibilities:

1.  win on the 1st spin - call this p(1)
2.  win on the 2nd spin - call this p(2)
3.  win on the 3rd spin - call this p(3)
4.  loss - call this p(0)

Note that p(0) + p(1) + p(2) + p(3) = 1  In other words, there's a 100% chance that you'll either win or you won't!
Also, to win, it must be on either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd spin, so p(game-win) = p(1) + p(2) + p(3)

Now p(1) = 18/37 = 0.4865

p(2) is the chance of losing on the 1st spin and winning on the 2nd. The chance of loss is 1 − 18/37 = 19/37

so p(2) = 19/37 × 18/37 = 0.2498

p(3) is the chance of losing on the first 2 spins and winning on the 3rd, so p(3) = (19/37)² × 18/37 = 0.1283

adding them all up gives the chance of winning a game:

p(game-win) = 0.8646 or 86.46%

Note that, for comparison, this is the same probability (to 3 decimal places) as winning when betting on 32 numbers: 32/37 = 86.49%

and the chance of losing a game is:

p(game-loss) = 0.1354

So you should expect to lose a game, on average, once in every 7.4 games.


Winning & Losing runs

to be continued...

[rayhd63]

......now that starts intresting !!! Awaiting the continuation !!!

Ray

[KingsRoulette]

So you should expect to lose a game, on average, once in every 7.4 games.

May I take it as we are going to win 7 units (or even more), prior to losing 7 units (in three steps of marty), averagely?

[Bayes]

So you should expect to lose a game, on average, once in every 7.4 games.

May I take it as we are going to win 7 units (or even more), prior to losing 7 units (in three steps of marty), averagely?

Hi KR,

Maybe, but that's down to variance. On average, because you need to win once in every 8 games just to break even, it means you don't make enough in the winning runs to offset the losses. But I don't want to stress this too much because it applies to every system.

Winning runs

Rather than posting tedious calculations, I'm just going to present the results in a table. The left-hand side shows the length of the winning run going up in steps of 5 after the first 4 and the right-hand side tells you what the chance is of seeing it. The first 4 results are given in % form and the remainder are in "1 in X" form.

Winning    Chance
  Run

   2          75%
   3          64%
   4          59%
   5          48%
  10         1 in 4.3
  15         1 in 8.9
  20         1 in 18.4
  25         1 in 38.0
  30         1 in 78.6
  35         1 in 162
  40         1 in 337
  45         1 in 697
  50         1 in 1,443
  55         1 in 2,986
  60         1 in 6,181
  65         1 in 12,794
  70         1 in 26,481
  75         1 in 54,809
  80         1 in 113,443
  85         1 in 234,803
  90         1 in 485,991
  95         1 in 1,005,895
  100       1 in 2,081,980

[Ralph]

Yes if all of the worlds population try, about 4000 will make it, one of them seems to be JL. If we count those not try it is more than 4000 fold less. My be only one. It must be JL.

[JohnLegend]

Yes if all of the worlds population try, about 4000 will make it, one of them seems to be JL. If we count those not try it is more than 4000 fold less. My be only one. It must be JL.

Ralph what exactly are you saying here? If the entire world played Pattern breaker. Longterm just about the entire world should show a profit.

Bayes is excellent at statistics, but what even he cannot accommodate for, is the FREAK RUNS H.A.R is capable of showing you.

I might plod along with a win loss pattern as follows WON 4--LOST 1--WON 9--LOST 1--WON 2--LOST 1--WON 8--LOST 1-------------------------THEN SOMETHING HAPPENS.

WON 24--LOST 1--WON 9--LOST 1--WON 17--LOST 1. You see the first string of wins and losses BARELY gave me 5/1. And I've experienced these kind of breakdowns many times. Then the second string of wins and losses takes me to a level where I want to be. around 9/1


Or more often between 10/1---12/1 Then by raising and lowering stakes usually after a loss. I secure a profit margin. Anyone who stays with PB long enough will experience something similar to this.

What happens to alot of the casual people is they will play 30 or 40 REAL GAMES. Get that poor breakdown and then completely dismiss the method as a failure. The detractors standing on the sidelines then say, "See I told you so, JL is full of it". STAYING POWER, is seriously lacking in most people.


That's why im so adamant about the virtues of this method. I've seen it all. And why I've unsertaken to show it works, aswell as have an independant player do a test. I already know this baby works. None of you have ever asked yourself this question. "WHY IS THIS JL CHARACTOR GOING TO PUSH A METHOD SO HARD IF HE KNOWS IT doesn't WORK?? 

[Ralph]

Jl I just said yhat I wrot, the odds are so it will not happen always, if the whole world used it they will not win at your rate. It is not at all impossible to win 1000 times in a row, not common anyhow.

[JohnLegend]

Jl I just said yhat I wrot, the odds are so it will not happen always, if the whole world used it they will not win at your rate. It is not at all impossible to win 1000 times in a row, not common anyhow.

Ralph hold on a minute. Where have I ever stated I won a 1000 games of PATTERN BREAKER in a row???

[Ralph]

May be not yet, but it in fact possible. The chances are small but even 10000 is not impossible, I am waiting.

[TwoCatSam]

"WHY IS THS JL CHARACTOR GOING TO PUSH A METHOD SO HARD IF HE KNOWS IT doesn't WORK??


Jl

This is not a comment on you, but on FlAtMaN.  Why did he push so hard on a system he very well knew was a loser?  Why does anyone?  Hear me now and believe me later----I've seen this more times than I've got fingers and toes.  Frankly, I think I've seen it all!!  I'm sure there are people on this forum who followed the mess on the "other" forum.  They know what I'm talking about.

Long before I knew you, I studied the idea of just dropping in.  I had a system that worked 90% of the time doing it.  That 10% ate my lunch and gave me the check!

Hang in there.  I, for one, am always pulling for you to win and for snubby to win.

Sam

[JohnLegend]

May be not yet, but it in fact possible. The chances are small but even 10000 is not impossible, I am waiting.

I can tell you with absolute certaintly Ralph, no one will ever win 1,000 consecutive games of PATTERN BREAKER.

FIVE possible. 8 ON 1 very POSSIBLE. But not PATTERN BREAKER. If you even break the 100 barrier celebrate. You have done something very special. And put yourself way ahead.

[Bayes]

Losing runs

Losing   Chance
  Run

   1     1 in 7.4
   2     1 in 55
   3     1 in 403
   4     1 in 2,975
   5     1 in 21,973
   6     1 in 162,288
   7     1 in 1,198,586
   8     1 in 8,852,190

[JohnLegend]

"WHY IS THS JL CHARACTOR GOING TO PUSH A METHOD SO HARD IF HE KNOWS IT doesn't WORK??


Jl

This is not a comment on you, but on FlAtMaN.  Why did he push so hard on a system he very well knew was a loser?  Why does anyone?  Hear me now and believe me later----I've seen this more times than I've got fingers and toes.  Frankly, I think I've seen it all!!  I'm sure there are people on this forum who followed the mess on the "other" forum.  They know what I'm talking about.

Long before I knew you, I studied the idea of just dropping in.  I had a system that worked 90% of the time doing it.  That 10% ate my lunch and gave me the check!

Hang in there.  I, for one, am always pulling for you to win and for snubby to win.

Sam

Sam I will tell you this. You have a very special guy heading your Speramus team. If you stay with Subby. He can win all of you guys a small fortune. And once and for all. Show everyone PB works. And he is not even using any recovery staking.

I will attempt to do the same on BV. But regardless I will do it live in the near future too. I will hand one of my accounts over to Superman so he can verify my success. Everyone will know this method is a winner in the future. From the most ardent maths boy. To a man who sells expensive computer gimmicks. For sums that could buy a nice house down south.

[spike]

"WHY IS THS JL CHARACTOR GOING TO PUSH A METHOD SO HARD IF HE KNOWS IT doesn't WORK??

Its usually because they haven't discovered they don't
work yet. Every guy who pushes these things always
has a boatload of bragging to back him up. Why, I've
done this for 9 years and 7600 games and bought a house
and a boat and a $100K car with the proceeds.

The truth is, they discovered the thing a short time ago,
have never bet real money with it, and want the
forum to prove if it works or doesn't work so they can
save themselves the time of doing the heavy lifting
themselves.

Unless the laws of probability have changed and nobody
told me, all of these systems are doomed. But they can
be fun to work on as long as you do it without investing
real money.

[JohnLegend]

Its usually because they haven't discovered they don't
work yet. Every guy who pushes these things always
has a boatload of bragging to back him up. Why, I've
done this for 9 years and 7600 games and bought a house
and a boat and a $100K car with the proceeds.

The truth is, they discovered the thing a short time ago,
have never bet real money with it, and want the
forum to prove if it works or doesn't work so they can
save themselves the time of doing the heavy lifting
themselves.

Unless the laws of probability have changed and nobody
told me, all of these systems are doomed. But they can
be fun to work on as long as you do it without investing
real money.

Spike you will be proven wrong and shallow in your thought process. I GAURANTEE YOU THAT.