Author Topic: Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)  (Read 5693 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)                                                  
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression" is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, 'can not retract', or the 'stick to your guns' and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in.  Bad traits for a good to great Bac player, IMO!

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 minimums and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 minimums.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily, even with the lower table minimums.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens, I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you do not think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking??? 
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Offline KungFuBac

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Hi alrelax

Good post as i just re viewed this although I read awhile back. Several key points regarding negpro and some of the issues. I will preface my thoughts with the fact Im almost a 100% pospro so my opinions may be biased. Im sure negpro-only players can also point out some of the negative aspects of pos pro-only systems.

My perception is that your post speaks mostly on steep martys. However, imo a diluted marty(slower curve with more negpro levels) is just as dangerous or even more so. Though the diluted marty may spread out the pain it will in the end still deliver alot of unnecessary pain even if it does prevail in the end. This "unnecessary" pain one must endure (and even if victorious), only receives a small prize in the end, is my main reason for not choosing a negpro.

My quick thoughts:
Both negpro and pospro are compounding any advantage(or lack of). Neither change the EV for the Cas.
For the most part the difference simply boils down to which type of personality one is more aligned. Do we feel more comfortable limiting a loss or amplifying a win. I am more aligned with the latter.


"... to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7.
But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost. ..."


     I think it goes back to ones personality. The fear of losing or being drawn down is greater than ones willingness and desire to accept a big win. Same reason much of society (think commercials) play on this common "fear" trait.
E.G., Additional insurance to cover/improve your current insurance policy. "You already have a boatload of insurance for everything--then you need to buy our supplemental insurance to supplement the supplement plan,...etc. " 

Additional medicine to add to or improve your current medicine so you get less sick or don't die die die--Even though the Rx company originally touted the first medicine as the goto cureall, just to name a few.  It seems every where I look society is playing on fear.
Fear is a powerful emotion. Fear is a good thing and needed , especially for us gamblers. However, imo unreasonable and non-warranted fear sometime drives too many of our gambling decisions.

"... Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into. .."

     If one must do a negpro only and always do negpro I think the key is to NOT feel a need to make up the losses immediately on this shoe or this session or this day.  Albalaha writes alot of good essays on this --pointing out that optimally its best to not attempt getting it all back at once.


"... Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives..."

     I agree 100%. If one must play a negpro and must recoup quick I would be more inline with a negpro containing five levels (vs say 7-9) and rewards the bettor with slightly larger win the deeper one is forced to endure additional pain levels.

E.G.,   1,3,7,15,31 .
So the bettor would need to see a specific event six consec times to lose. The loss shouldnt  be catastrophic to ones total bankroll.  Call it a session and be done with it. One can continue with a recoup in future sessions if one must recoup. The main prob I see with the steep marty isn't neccessarily that i have a disdain for negpro martys.  Its the number of steep levels in the approach that majority of players want to implement--just to avoid the pain of a loss in that single session.  I say give your money a fair chance to prevail and just accept the small loss.


Learning how to lose and how to limit the inevitable losses helped me learn how to accept larger and more frequent wins.  Though I still get my share of the L sessions.

Thx again alrelax for all your posts.



Continued Success,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Negative progressions might not be as negative or imprudent as a martingale or labouchere. Rather, negative progressions are based on more realistic premise, i.e. expecting lesser wins than losses while positive progression either presupposes more wins than losses or looks for clumping wins. If you simulate any so called positive progression in the long run, it can't win there while negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.
         A hybrid progression meant to cater all types of variance and average results is the most prudent way to play, in my humble opinion and experience.
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Offline KungFuBac

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Hi Albalaha. Thx for your thoughts/comments.

"...while positive progression either presupposes more wins than losses or looks for clumping wins. If you simulate any so called positive progression in the long run, it can't win there while negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.   ..."

     I agree it(pospro) may not win to infinity trials. However, I like to also view as it can win First (meaning prior to losing buyin), and can win several x buyin, BEFORE, its ultimate demise. I also like that no casino rules that require us to play 100% of our wins back through the casino. 

     *When I run sims or see a completed study or sims on a pospro I also find it helpful to look at not only the number of trials, but also things like : Did the sims only include same-side streaks(i.e., vertical presentation on a tote board) or other streaks, % of press, how many presses, was the bet required to be active on all wins for that streak (from first through last), did the pressed wager continue to the end, did the wager birth/die in only one streak,....etc, was the press regime linear or exponential, where did the average basal and ceiling occur, how far apart were said basal/ceiling, where did the first basal show(# of trials on avg),  just to  name a few.


negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.   ..."[/i][/color]

     that's impressive--Im guessing it was a same-side wager(e.g., black or red?)?


"... Rather, negative progressions are based on more realistic premise, i.e. expecting lesser wins than losses while positive progression either presupposes more wins than losses or looks for clumping wins.  ..."

IMO one of the main attributes of Pospro is the addendum earnings and future potential anytime we can get "clumped wins"(clumping meaning we are winning consecutive wagers and not necessarily consecutive same-side or same pattern or same shoe), simply meaning we won consecutive bets(maybe by luck, probability, trigger, verified advantage, variance, proven theory, hunch,...etc,, it doesn't matter why they occurred consecutively ).
Secondly, a pospro allows one to win even if guessing <50% correct---though they will need to be consec winners.
     
     The downside of a pos pro is obviously that our consecutive(or clump of wins) will generally need to be at least 3-consec and optimally four or five to start seeing an exponential compounding effect, AND said consec bets need to show above expectation more shoes than not.
This is where other ratios are important: Bet size-to-Buyin-to-Bankroll. Too small of wager size and we are required to achieve more winning wagers. Too Big /we may be limited in attempts and then bet too few attempts and thus our hit rate will need to be signif higher than average,,.....etc.

I don't view three consec wins on either side , pattern, inter-shoe, ..etc as being difficult at all in a random even-chance game of 84 decisions.  Once we start seeking the >=four/five consec is where we must start considering the average distance(or wait time) we can expect to endure if one is wagering randomly in an even-chance game.
All patterns do not have the same wait time or distance between presentation.

*Side Note: I have only played one shoe in my lifetime across thousands of shoes that neither P or B showed 3 in a row same-side wins(ppp or bbb). That particular shoe only had one 3-consec chop(near the end).

Im  in favor of pospro with maybe a little negpro blended in to help nick away at the house edge with little risk of ruining my buyin.
Im not against negpro if that is ones chosen M.O.    I do like albalahas' term above: Hybrid --as long as we don't try to contain or restrict too much of the variance. 







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Offline Albalaha

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Quote
I agree it(pospro) may not win to infinity trials.

It doesn't win average shoes as well. It needs better than average times to win. I do not say, streaks do not come but if we see the overall impact of any of your favorite positive progression, it won't win a net profit, most likely after any 10 random shoes. Let us all have your favorite positive progression here to be evaluated.

Quote
I also like that no casino rules that require us to play 100% of our wins back through the casino.

They do not ask us to gamble at all. We do that and lose our money too apart from any coincidental win that we got from casino. This is true for 99% gamblers. We lose money in the endeavour of winning more and not for any guilt of winning money from casino.

Quote
negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.   

     that's impressive--Im guessing it was a same-side wager(e.g., black or red?)

         I did this 8 years back with one of the finest programmers on any forum, Ophis. We surpassed all data that we could put our hands over. Over 10 millions spins of roulette were beaten, mercilessly. We bet all sorts of bets from EC to single number. It was a controlled negative progressions, kind of brute force attack on all bets possible in roulette. You can feel it here:
https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=808.0

Quote
*Side Note: I have only played one shoe in my lifetime across thousands of shoes that neither P or B showed 3 in a row same-side wins(ppp or bbb). That particular shoe only had one 3-consec chop(near the end).

 Well, probability to get a ppp or bbb is 1/8 roughly so in 72 hands of a shoe, one should get it 9 times averagely. You said you saw only one shoe of such kind where no PPP or BBB occurred, well it is actually rare and remote to happen frequently but if you get one or two such wins in a shoe, it should not be enough to get you a net profit.[/size]
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Offline KungFuBac

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Hi alb
Thx for responses

I agree it(pospro) may not win to infinity trials.

"...It doesn't win average shoes as well. It needs better than average times to win..."


     It depends. If one only wagers on part of the shoe then an average shoe may (or may not) be reflective of the part that received wagers.


I also like that no casino rules that require us to play 100% of our wins back through the casino.

They do not ask us to gamble at all. We do that and lose our money too apart from any coincidental win that we got from casino. This is true for 99% gamblers. We lose money in the endeavour of winning more and not for any guilt of winning money from casino.
[/i]

     I don't know what you mean.



negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.   

     that's impressive--Im guessing it was a same-side wager(e.g., black or red?)

         I did this 8 years back with one of the finest programmers on any forum, Ophis. We surpassed all data that we could put our hands over. Over 10 millions spins of roulette were beaten, mercilessly. We bet all sorts of bets from EC to single number. It was a controlled negative progressions, kind of brute force attack on all bets possible in roulette. You can feel it here:
https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=808.0


      Thx for link as I read the first page or so today. Interesting sim. Good study by u/ophis. However, Im not sure how much is applicable to a real cas live table. It seems if it performed that well with roulette there are several other games I would hypothesize we would see superior results.  Just my quick thoughts as I have very minimal experience  w roulette so maybe it(roult) has some underlying traits within its overall  profile that lend itself to this type of wagering. Even with my lack of roulette gaming experience I would still hypothesize Bac p/b as well as Craps line wagers(e.g., Pl / dp), would perform better, all other variables being the same(due to a variety of reasons).
Good info and kudos to u/ ophis.


*Side Note: I have only played one shoe in my lifetime across thousands of shoes that neither P or B showed 3 in a row same-side wins(ppp or bbb). That particular shoe only had one 3-consec chop(near the end).


 Well, probability to get a ppp or bbb is 1/8 roughly so in 72 hands of a shoe, one should get it 9 times averagely. You said you saw only one shoe of such kind where no PPP or BBB occurred, well it is actually rare and remote to happen frequently but if you get one or two such wins in a shoe, it should not be enough to get you a net profit.[/size]
[/i]

       Exactly



Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."