How do you catch strikes?

Is a very good question as we have flat betting and positive progressions.
I have never seen any one write about a bet selection that catch strikes.

Why is that?

Abstract experiment:

I was thinking about how you could change the probability using the even money bets.
My line of thinking was about roulette and dozen play, because it seems that two dozen always dominate and i wanted to change that into even money bets with the same probability.

I start testing and come up with three states or three clustering sequences with no other possibility.
Then i reckon does has to have the same probability as dozen play.

What i know from the past about dozen play is that 1 dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and that 2 dozen can hit 32 times in a row.
I also notice that is very common that 2 dozen hit 34567 times in a row on regular basis.

Should also mention that one dozen hit 12 to 13 times in a row during 1 million trails.
So this is the benchmark we dealing with.

So in a nutshell i wanted to capture this phenomenon using the even money bets.
But the staking is not the same and the payouts is not the same, but the probability is the same.

Lets say i follow one state to repeat with even money bets, then i get +1 unit.
But if i follow one dozen to repeat with one dozen play bet, then i get +2 units.

Now both has the same probability being 1 in 3 and give me 33% to hit a repeat.
Now lets assume we lose our first bet, then we have two states that show or two dozen.

Lets say we will cover them betting:

Then i need to bet twice to cover the last two states that show with even money bet.
This mean i will break even with +0 if i get one of them states to show or i will get -1 unit (almost break even).

Here above i have 66% to hit or break or almost break even.
But if i lose then all three states show and i will be down -3 units.

If it was dozen and one of the two last dozen show again i would break even +0.
Also 66% probability.
If i would lose, then i would be down -3 units.

That is how it is different.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umgf2lWMIlk

 

 
I crack the random flow.
I come up with a solution where the random flow has to show you the truth.
No bet selections or triggers.

With this solution you can observe how regression towards the mean unfold with out any fuzzy explanation.

Read this twice:

Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event, though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy (and variant law of averages). Similarly, the law of large numbers states that in the long term, the average will tend towards the expected value, but makes no statement about individual trials. For example, following a run of 10 heads on a flip of a fair coin (a rare, extreme event), regression to the mean states that the next run of heads will likely be less than 10, while the law of large numbers states that in the long term, this event will likely average out, and the average fraction of heads will tend to 1/2. By contrast, the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now "due" for a run of tails, to balance out.

What does this means:
This means i can pick any random combination of 10 events and compare them with the next 10 random events.
The expectation should be that they will not be the same combination and there will be present change.
So i can use opposite and same to see if this is the truth.

2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1

- - -

2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O

- - -

1 2 S
2 1 S
2 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S

- - -

2 1 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 2 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
2 1 O 
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 1 S

- - -

2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
2 1 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
2 1 O

- - -

2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S

- - -

What is the solution:

Lets assume you would use Ecart play and see windows of 3.0 STD as rare and extreme event.
Then for example 14 events vs 2 events is 3.0 STD.
That is a total of 16 events.

Then you can for example pick windows of 8 random trails following by 8 random trails and see regression towards the mean unfold.
Then when you get 2 events vs 3 events then the 3 events make the STD grow stronger and the 2 events is part of the regression toward the mean.
Now you can see what happens each time a window not grow stronger and hit 3.0 STD.
You do nothing then just observe the regression towards the mean.

2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1

- - -

2 S
2 S
1 O
1 O
1 S
1 S L
1 S L
1 S L 3.0 STD

- - -

2 S
2 S
1 S
2 O
1 S
2 O
2 O W 2.5 STD
1 S

- - -

2 S
1 O
1 S
1 O
1 S
1 O W 2.0 STD
1 O
1 S

- - -

1 O
1 S
1 S
2 O
2 O
1 S W 1.80 STD
2 O
1 S

- - -

2 O
1 S
2 O
2 S
2 S
2 O W 2.5 STD
2 S
1 S

- - -

2 S
1 S
1 O
1 O
2 S
1 O W 1.5 STD
1 O
2 O

- - -

2 S
2 O
1 S
1 S
1 O
1 S  L
1 S  L
1 O W 2.5 STD

- - -

2 S
1 O
2 O
2 O
1 S
1 S W 2.5 STD
2 O
2 O

- - -

2 S
1 S
2 S
2 S
2 O
1 S
1 O
1 O W 2.5 STD

- - -

3.0 STD No regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.0 STD Small regression
1.8 STD Medium regression
2.5 STD Small regression
1.5 STD Large regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression

Development and experimenting:

8 random trails following by 8 random trails is only one example and can be any number.
You can pick what ever you think is extreme and rare event.

Comparing with this method then following is true.
Indication for regression event is the underrepresented events.
Indication for the STD to grow is the overrepresented events.

So if you for example see one red and two black, then red will part of  future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination
So if you for example see two red and three black, then red will be part of future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination.

Window and probability:

You can pick smaller windows around 2.5 STD or larger window up to 6.0 STD.
10 reds has the same probability as 10 in any combination, that is why you can pick any events with any combination with any length using the random flow comparing random against random.

The March
You have to develop a march if you are going to attack several times for regression.

 
EXTREME
This is my baby.

- - -

How to cover 24 unique outcomes with only 15 placed bets.

Lets take clustering patterns into lines of three.
Principal of 1/3.

This is 8 unique combinations/patterns.
I can cover all possibilities for each pattern.

1. BBB
2. BPB
3. BPP
4. BBP
5. PPP
6. PBP
7. PBB
8. PPB

This is banker and player patterns.

- - -

From scratch ...
Lets say you get a pattern with three outcomes.

BBB

This is three banker in a row.
Now i don't want more banker patterns to show.
This is because we are betting against all four banker patterns to show.
This is how the look like.

BBB
BPB
BBP
BPP

So when i have a banker pattern i will bet player next.

BBB
B

I lose my first bet and get one more banker.

Now i bet that next outcome will match my previous pattern, i aim for a repeat.
Then i need BB to hit to be towards BBB.

BBB
BP

I lose my bet.
I got a player, now i know that the banker pattern can not repeat with three banker, as i have banker and player as result.

We wait for next outcome to see what two patterns we will get.

BBB
BPB

Next i don't want any more banker patterns so i bet player.

BBB
BPB
B

I got a new banker pattern, now i will bet that one of the previous two patterns will repeat.
If i get BB i will play BBB and if i get BP i will play BPB.
That way i will catch a repeat.

BBB
BPB
BPP

We lose our bet and we got no repeat of the two previous patterns.

We got a new pattern to show and now we have three unique patterns that start with banker.
Next i don't want a new banker pattern to show so i bet player.

BBB
BPB
BPP
B

We lose the bet.
Now there is only one banker pattern left that could make that all four have a show each with no repeat.
The pattern looks like this.

BBP

Now we have following patterns.

BBB
BPB
BPP
B

Now we have two banker patterns that start with BP and they are BPB and BPP
So if we wait for next outcome to show and it is BP then we can not play for a repeat for BPB or BPP as they both already have a show.
So we have to bet before next decision show and play P as then we would catch one of does two patterns if they would repeat.
Same would be if you had two patterns who begin with BB.

BBB
BPB
BPP
BB

We lose our bet and no repeat of the two patterns i mention above BPB and BPP

Now we only have last bet for BBB to repeat.
If not then we have all four banker pattern to show once each.

BBB
BPB LL
BPP LL
BBP LLL

And we lost all bets.

Now we don't want all 4 player patterns to show once.
So out next bet will be banker.

BBB
BPB
BPP
BBP
P

We lose the bet.
Now everything repeats in the same way and you prevent all 8 possibility to show once with out any repeat.

BBB
BPB LL
BPP LL
BBP LLL
PPB L
PBP LL
PPP LL
PBB LLL           

- - -

This is about that a dice with 8 sides will repeat at least once and not show each side once with no repeat.
A dice with 6 sides has 98.2% to repeat at least once during 6 throws (one cycle) and 2.7% to show each side once with no repeat.With 8 sides you get higher probability favoring you, maybe 99% vs 1% ...
And the march or algorithm also capture zig zag ...

Now on topic.
You could see how you could betting against 4 formation to show once each with 4 bets, as i describe above.

BBB
BPB LL
BBP LL
BPP LLL

That is a total of seven bets.This could have been 4 player patterns, but with this example 4 banker patterns.
Now you don't want 4 unique patterns that begin with player, after having 4 unique banker patterns, so next you only bet once for banker to continue and avoid player patterns to show.


BBB
BPB LL
BBP LL
BPP LLL
PPP L

Now you have 4 unique banker patterns and will play that you won't get 4 unique player patterns.Just repeat the formula above.

BBB
BPB LL
BBP LL
BPP LLL
PPP L
PBP LL
PPB LL
PBB LLL
 

 
I notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.

There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.

One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.

That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.

I will post my results and ideas at this topic.
If you want to follow you are more then welcome.

Cheers

 
Fist method RWD

Roy Ward Dickson said a playable hot number is...

a. One that has not come up for at least thirty consecutive spins. ie. 30 spins or more never less.

b. One that after such an "establishing period of absence" finally came up.

c. And which did so twice more during the next 19 spins or less, subject to the special exceptions below.

That is three shows in 20 spins or less after an absence of 30 spins or more.

SPECIAL EXCEPTIONS.
A number is NOT playable if it comes up three times in a row.
A number is NOT playable if the DIFFERENCE in the 'gap' between the first-and-second appearance and the 'gap' between the second-and-third appearances consists of more than six.

Say the qualifying numbers' initial two shows were on the first and seventh spins, that is a 'gap' of 6 and the third qualifying show came up on the 19th spin, that is a 'gap' of 12 spins, then the DIFFERENCE in the 'gaps' of 6 & 12 = 6. The number is playable!

Again, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and third spins, that is a 'gap' of 2 and the third show is on the twelveth spin, that is a 'gap' of 9, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 2 & 9 = 7. The number is unplayable!

Another example, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and tenth spins, that is a 'gap' of 9 and the third show is on the twentieth spin, that is a 'gap' of 10, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 9 & 10 = 1. Playable!

BETTING STRATEGY.
Back a playable qualifying number for UP TO 9 spins NOT counting spins where zero shows.
Of course zero itself can qualify to be playable.
Bet one unit on the first to the sixth playable spin and two units on the seventh to the ninth playable spin.
If the string of nine bets all fail to achieve a win stop betting that number immediately.
Stop backing that number immediately a bet wins, that is the hot number shows for the fourth time.
As soon as one such playable hot number bet has won stop that playing session at that wheel, even if it was your first bet. No more bets that day at that wheel.
Should three successive playable strings each of nine bets all lose stop that playing session at that wheel.
If you have lost two strings of nine bets and are playing a third when a second number qualifies as playable DON'T commence betting on it. Either you win your currently active string and walk or you walk away after losing three consecutive strings of nine anyway.

Second method median and skips ...

Skip Streak System by Apache:

First I want tell I build this system using Ion Saliu concepts :
Skip, Streak, and Median Value.

Example :

Roulette Number: 6
Hits -> 24 times
Skips -> 51 43 104 1 2 29 37 77 79 15 130 15 12 7 11 131 11 129 8 16 20 14 21 12

* Sorted Skips: 1 2 7 8 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 20 21 29 37 43 51 77 79 104 129 130 131

* Median Skip: 16

So number 6 hit 24 times.
The first row - called Skips - show ( to the right to left) the skips of number 6. Number 6 show. After 12 spins, show again, after 21 spins show again, after 14 spins number 6 show again etc. The last three skips of number 6 are 104, 43, 51.


The second row - called - Sorted Skips show all the skips for a particular number in ascending order.

The three row called - Median Skip - show the median value of the sorted skips. The median is the middle value of a string of numbers. In this example the median value of skips is 16.
It should not be confused with the average.
So the Median Value is the middle value in a string of values.

Therefore 50% of the values are within the median or less, and 50% are within the median or more. In my example of number 6, the skip median is 16. That mean that 50% of the time number 6 hits within a skip of 16 or less.

Now if in the string of skips of number 6 I mark :

with sign (+) I mark if the skip is greater than median value of skips
with sign (-) I mark if the skip is small than median value of skips
with sign (=) I mark if the skip is equal with median value of skips

I obtain this :

Code:

51  43  104  1  2  29  37  77  79  15  130  15  12  7  11  131  11  129  8  16  20  14  21  12

+   +    +  -  -   +   +   +   +   -    +   -   -  -   -    +   -    -  -   =   -   -   -   -



1. THE STRATEGY :

We bet on the numbers which have a 3 consecutive streak of skips greater than the median value of skips. ( That mean three consecutive + )

In our example number 6 is qualified because the last three skips ( consecutive ) are 104, 43, 51. We have + + + ( three consecutive value of skips, greater than median value of skips. 16

(104 > 16) (43 > 16) (51 > 16)

St0rm0r, is possible to code this system with this options : ?


1.Bet on numbers with encounter 3 consecutive signs +
2.Bet on numbers with encounter 4 consecutive signs + (tight bettors)
3.Bet on numbers until hit.
4.Bet on numbers for 37 spins
5.Bet on numbers for a number of spins equal with the median value of skips. ( In this example we bet number 6 for 16 spins)

Money managament : Flat bet.

Thank you in advance.


P.S. I use this strategy with success in Bookmakers Lottery. (The Irish, German, Spanish,49s lotteryes where I can bet one number )

This is a old classical method and i find a new twist to it, i post it at the end of topic.

Here is a old one, a reel classical for the even chances.

The principal of tracking is 1/3. You write down the result in lines of 3.

The bet selection is to catch series of 4. There is 2 patterns that we are going to use.

The first pattern: RBR BRB - this pattern alternate for 3 times and we will play that they will continue to do so for 4 times.   



So this is how it would look - if we playing to catch series of 4 from the patterns that have alternating for 3 times:





The second pattern RRR BBB a serie of 3 and we will play that they continue to become 4 in a row.



So this is how it would look - if we playing to catch series of 4 from the patterns that is a serie of 3:



Now lets take a look at it whit a reel permanence, a short sample... First we are going to see how it perform using the first pattern only - RBR and BRB...

BRR                         
RRR                                                   
BRR                                             
BRB                                           
RBR W                   
BBB               
BBR                                               
BBB           
BRB             
BRR L                         
RBB                     
BBB                   
RBR                                           
BRB W             
RBR W                         
BBR W                     
BRR                                           
RRR                               
BBR                   
BRB                   
BBB L                       
BRB                                                   
BRR L       
RBR                                     
RBB L       
BBR                                 
RRR               
RBR                           
RRR L                     
RRR               
RBB         
RRB 
BBB             
BBR               
BRR       
RBR             
BBB W       
BRR       
RBB             
BBR             
BRR       
BRR       
RBR 
RRR L                   
RBB                                 
RBB             
BBB                 
BBB                     
BRB               
RRR W           
RRB                   
RRR             
RBR       
BRB W                         
RRB 
BBR       
RRR       
BBB                     
RBR                     
BBR W                                 
RBB 
BBB 
BRR                     
BRB       
RBR W

Lets take a short example of the second pattern RRR and BBB...     

BRR                         
RRR                                                   
BRR L                                             
BRB                                           
RBR                   
BBB               
BBR W                                             
BBB           
BRB W             
BRR                         
RBB                     
BBB                   
RBR L                                           
BRB             
RBR                         
BBR                       
BRR                                           
RRR                               
BBR L                 
BRB                   
BBB                         
BRB W                                                 
BRR       
RBR                                     
RBB       
BBR                                 
RRR               
RBR W                         
RRR                     
RRR W               
RBB W       
RRB 
BBB             
BBR W               
BRR       
RBR             
BBB       
BRR W     
RBB             
BBR             
BRR       
BRR       
RBR 
RRR                   
RBB W                               
RBB             
BBB                 
BBB W                   
BRB               
RRR             
RRB W                   
RRR             
RBR W       
BRB                           
RRB 
BBR       
RRR       
BBB L                     
RBR                     
BBR                                   
RBB 

Now we are going to use bout and see what happens...

BRR                         
RRR                                                   
BRR L                                             
BRB                                           
RBR w                 
BBB               
BBR W                                             
BBB           
BRB W             
BRR L                         
RBB                     
BBB                   
RBR L                                           
BRB W             
RBR                         
BBR W                     
BRR                                           
RRR                               
BBR L                 
BRB                   
BBB L                       
BRB W                                                 
BRR       
RBR                                     
RBB L       
BBR                                 
RRR               
RBR W                         
RRR L                   
RRR W               
RBB W       
RRB 
BBB             
BBR W               
BRR       
RBR             
BBB W       
BRR W     
RBB             
BBR             
BRR       
BRR       
RBR 
RRR L                   
RBB W                               
RBB             
BBB                 
BBB W                   
BRB               
RRR W           
RRB W                   
RRR             
RBR W       
BRB W                         
RRB 
BBR       
RRR       
BBB L                     
RBR                     
BBR W                                 
RBB 
BBB 
BRR W                     
BRB       
RBR W                   
RBR       
RBR L                   
BBB               
RBB L                   
RRR             
BRR L                   
RBR       
BRB W
RRB   
BBR               
RRB             
RBR       
BRB W             
RBB 
RRR       
BBR L       
BRB       
BBR L                 
RRR               
RBR W       
BBB             
RBB L
RRB             
RBB       
RRR             
RBR W       
BBB       
RBB L       
RBR       
RBR L             
BBR       
RBB
BBB         
BBR W       
RRR
RBB W
BBR 
RRB 

This approach above described how to catch small trends,
series of 4,
I run a short test because I was curios how it would perform if we don't use the principal of 1/3.

I use a humble progression 1 1 3 4 7 ...

Here is the result using a 5 step progression:



Here is the result for 2048 RNGs

 
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html

Cheers

 
I play roulette around 20 years ago.
Then we did not have international casino, we had restaurants and pub's with roulette.

You could only play with 0.2 or 0.5 chips as maximum.
So if you had to use some kind of progression you had to take advantage of the layout and cover more bets.

My first method was playing against one dozen to show six times in a row.
So if dozen 1 hit and could place 2 and 3 up to five times using the layout.

I once won all chips the dealer had at the table, then later on i lose it all back.

Cheers

Now assume that one red is one event and have the value of 1.
Also black is one event and have the value of 1.

Then 14 reds and two blacks is 3.0 STD or 14 blacks and two reds are 3.0 STD.

Assume the random flow comes in waves of STD.
Small, middle and large STD waves.

Now to the twist.

I can pick 8 random trails and match or miss-match them with the future 8 random bits.
If i get 14 matches and 2 miss-matches i would have 3.0 STD.

So when i pick the random bits and compare so will one side get ahead with 3 miss-matches or matches.
Then i play opposite as its the underrepresented regression towards the mean.
To prevent getting 14/2 events or window of 3.0 STD ...

The bets is 3 to 4 attempts depending on how the random bits unfold.

Quote

2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2

2 S 2
2 O 1
2 0 1
2 S 2
1 O 2
2 O 1 L
2 S 2 W
1 0 2

1
2
1
1
2
1
2
1

1 S 1       
1 O 2
1 S 1
1 S 1
1 O 2 W
1 S 1
1 O 2
2 O 1

2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2

1 O 2
1 S 1
2 S 2
1 S 1
2 O 1 W
2 O 1
2 S 2
2 S 2

1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1

1 S 1
2 O 2
1 O 2
2 O 1
1 S 1 W
1 O 2
1 O 2
2 O 1

We all know the principal of 1/3 where we clustering patterns into three outcomes / groups.
I come up with an idea how to cover all possibilities that not all 8 patterns / combinations will have a show.
That is a sequence of 24 trails.

Now i will try to explain how it is done.
First we will start with out colors and just look at the formations.

There is 4 existing formations.

XXX
XOX
XXO
OXX

Now no matter what formation show first i bet same will repeat with one single bet.

XXX
X

Here i would bet X next
Or if we hade following formation

XOX
X

I would bet O next
If no win then i get two different formations

XOX
XXO

Then next bet, the second bet would be betting that one of does two formations would repeat.
Then you wait to see what formation will match before you make one single bet.

If the formation starts with XO then you would bet for XOX
It the formation starts with XX then you would bet for XXO

Lets say we lose and get three unique formations.

XOX
XXO
XOO

Now you have only one formation left if not one of does previous three will repeat.
And we have only placed two single bets.

So now XX or XO will be dominating formation and with this example above it is two formation that start with XO.
So next bet would be for a change XO, the third bet.

XOX
XXO
XOO
X

Lets say will lose

XOX
XXO
XOO
XX

Then we would place our last bet that XXO would show.
This is a total of four single bets.

Now we lose them all and all 4 formation show.

XOX
XXO
XOO
XXX

Now if you do this with colors you bet as follows.

If the first color is Red then you bet first there will be black.
If not you then follow the march i describe above.

So that is a total of 7 single bets.
If you would lose you would get all 4 formation with the same color.

RRR
RRB
RBR
RBB

Next would be playing Red as not black would show following the same march as i describe.
Does would be 8 single bets and a total of 15 single bets to cover the 24 trails or that all 8 patterns would have a show.

RRR
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBB
BRB
BBR
BRR

Hello ...

Sunday again and i don't have much to say today.
Will mention do, that the small signs that indicate that a post is new at this forum board is a little bit irritating, flashing ...

Then also that it has been to much about Kimo Li this week.
I don't have anything against his methodology,,,I just think for do who search solution among his work should join his forum.
It seems no one is expert about his work.
My 2 cents.

Cheers

 
Cycling on rolling basis ...

The random flow as we know it or the distribution does not come in perfect order.
Most of the time the flow comes in disorder or erratic flow.

Look at this simplicity or example.

1)
,,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,

2)
,,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,''

This above is typical of perfect symmetric order.
Erratic flow looks like this and are the most common one.

3)
,,''''',','',,,'',',,,'',,'''',,,',',','',,',',,,'',,,,,,'',',,,,,',',,''''',','',','',',,,'',,,',',,',,'

This is why i think cycling principles are superior toward any other in the short term.
Cycling on a rolling basis.

The key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
Its two books.
Part two is exclusive about basics and advance new development about Marigny de Grilleau's work.

I will write about this to become a reference area for cut point methodology or also known as regression towards the mean.
This will based upon my understanding about the subject.

One free site where you can test your system for free www.psroulette.com

Cheers

I forgot where i can download actuals from real casino ....
If you have a link ,,, many thanks ...

Cheers

One thing i can't get out of my head is that if you pick the last 6 numbers with no repeat, then you get one repeat with the next 6 numbers.
Also work with 5 numbers and the next 5 number window.

You track the numbers on a rolling basis where each window is 5 or 6 numbers.
+ sign is when you hit a repeat within next window of numbers.
- sign is when you miss a repeat within the next window of numbers.

+ + - + - + - + + + + - + - + - + + - + + + - - + - + - + + + - + - + +

Is there any way to take advantage out of this clustering appearances of repeats.

 
Strike domination from the very first outcome to continue or else i aim to break even.
This is the results for 10 sessions.
This is using a kind of regression strategy.
Won 59.5 units and lose 30 units.
[reveal]

-
21.0
-3.0
-
8.0
-3.0
-
4.0
-3.0
-
0.5
-3.0
-
8.5
-3.0
-
5.5
-3.0
-
2.0
-3.0
-

0.0
-3.0
-
3.0
-3.0
-
7.0
-3.0
-

I like this kind of method, as domination or strikes compensate for the negative expectation.
And i also like that you get a second chance to break even before you hit the hole.

+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+6.5
+0.5
+0.5
+3.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+0.0
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+2.0
+2.0
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+3.5
+2.0
+0.0
+2.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+3.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
-3.0
- - -
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
-3.0
[/reveal]

Regression towards the mean.

I write this topic for my self and if you are interested, then you are more then welcome to contribute.
I been thinking about the STD and how you measuring things.

So one red is one event and one black is one event.
This mean i can measuring red and black using math.
I can measuring balance and imbalance.

This means i can also measuring loses and winnings in the same way.
Where one loss is one event and one win is one event.

And if we take the law of series, then one singles is one event and one series is one event.
50/50 situation as there is as many singles as there is series.

Different benchmark and different variance.

The bell curve has no limit as nothing is due to happen, but the bell curve tend to change after reaching 3.0 STD.
There is three main states to talk about and observe.
One is that the imbalance can continue to grow stronger or it can hovering around zero state or getting weaker.
The two last states is what you hope to catch after a strong imbalance, hovering state and opposite draw-downs.

But you can create your own state and benchmark with regression towards the mean.
A wave of overrepresented events can be 1.5 STD and you look for tendency of change and playing that the waves will change before reaching 3.0 STD, but only if there is present change that indicate hovering state or draw-downs.
They come in tiny, medium and large states.

You lower you set the imbalance of overrepresented events you more action you will get and in the same time higher variance.
With other words a more bumpy ride.

Mapping or clustering patterns.

Bayes have made software that match and miss-match patterns to get winning and losing sequences.
Where each winning and losing mark is one event and you can act upon that information.

Drazen once mention if i remember it correct 28 loses and 2 wins.
That is 4.74 STD.

But the beauty of the animal is that you would never place any bets during your observations as there is no tendency for present change.
Hovering state or draw-downs.

This made me thinking, so i come up with my own clustering march of the random flow where i set my own benchmark for regression towards the mean.
I pick a more bumpy ride.

The benefit of this methodology.

That is when imbalance grow stronger, you do nothing, so in that way you are never chasing for the opposite to show.
You just observe the flow grow until you get your indications of correction.
They come in tiny, medium and large states.

This is the true meaning with tendency play or you could also name it trending, but not based upon guessing.
This methodology is based upon probability and math.

 
Again i test a new approach with flat betting and regression.
Are plus after 50 hit and run sessions.

WON 53.5 UNITS
LOSS 19 UNITS

[reveal= Results Here>]
+2.5
+1
+1
-11
+2.5
+3.0
+1
+1
+2.5
+0

---

-1
+1
+1
+2.5
+1
-1
-1
-1
+2.5
+0
---

+2.5
+1
+1
-3
+2.5
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0

---

+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-1
+2.5
+1
---

+0
+0
+4
+1
+1
+3
+1
+1
+2.5
+1
---[/reveal]

This is what i hate about it.
First it should not be possible and it has to be positive fluctuation in my favor.
So for how long and how many sessions can you flat betting, before negative expectation show its ugly face.

I just for fun tested the Fool Proof Progression and find it amazing how much you can win, really big wins.
On a win you increase one unit and on a loss you increase one unit, simple as that.

I just took my average even money bet to see how it perform:

W 1 +1
W 2 +3
W 3 +6
L 4 +2
L 5 -3
W 6 +3
W 7 +10
W 8 +18
W 9 +27
L 10 +17
W 11 +28
W 12 +40
W 13 +53
W 14 +67

I think Brett Mortons - Money Management Strategy - would do just fine with this Fool Proof Progression.
I will create a LW-Registry chart with loses and winnings to see when you are in the positive area and the negative area, also to pin point out where the crucial draw-downs occur.

Get back soon ...

Cheers

 

I am developing a even money bet where you break even or win 10% ...
I have not yet decide loss limit.

I could never forget this picture that describe the hit ratio you should expect when you aim for a small win goal or break even.
All this is flat betting.



+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0

Here above can you see -0.5 that means we break even but during the game we hit zero with La Partage Rule.
A direct win is +1.

The methodology is using red and black as they come, but with 1 in 3 probability.
If you win +1 you end the game.
If you end up +0 you end the game.
If you end up -1 you continue to play until you break even (here we should find a loss limit value)

Largest draw-down during this test was -4 units.
The main idea is following two dozen out of three for domination.
Will continue this later.

Three bets and you are out of the action ...

This is not a losing or winning system, this is a test placing only three bets to catch a trend.
Players have told me that you only place three bets and if you don't catch a trend you quit.
I was thinking this was crazy ... in the beginning.

But now i understand that we have to avoid chasing loses and keep things short, keep loses short, losing less.
For me it has been a fight in my mind to solve this philosophic with just placing three bets to catch a trend.
The common thing in the past has been one big progression and all in.

Three loses just not only make sense when it comes to keep loses short and small.
It also make sense if you aim to win two session out of three as your overall strategy.

Now i wanted to test one even money trend and see how many positive entering points i would get placing only three bets and how many negative exit points i would get placing only three bets.

The positive tram is overwhelming.

+ catch a trend within three bets
- losing three bets trying to catch a trend

300 trails

24 times you catch a trend with three bets
2 times you lose three bets trying to catch a trend

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

Now the question is how many times can i reach 20% win goal with does positive entering points.