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[alrelax]

Absurdist Humor in Bac Math & Stat AP Beliefs

Plain and simple, basic probability along with the math and statistical result following—as well as hole carding and totally absurd things like sort play, VINs/SAP counts, etc.  All wishful thinking without the players really profiting any more than the total blind guesser.  These are all coming from the player and people that are either; 1) Selling a commercial system/website elite membership or attempting to market a book; or 2) Those that are drama filled with great idolization of those that claimed one of the above for media purposes to get the publicity of a $15,000,000.00 or similar win.  Those that preach the above do so, without any definitive explanation, detail or what govern their winning, consistent and extremely profitable way of play.  As well, no pictures, W-2's, loss-win statements, or any tangible proof, (none whatsoever, none-zero-zip-zilch-nadda) except the one sentence, 'fear of getting banned form a casino', or else the other one is, "I an not ghetto bro", etc. 

They simply start and end every discussion or retaliatory attack with something along the lines of, 'Math and Stats are scientifically solid and not guessing', etc., etc., etc., and so on and so forth.  Basically the following, "Surreal humor, that is actually believing simply applying mathematical and statistical results from a test of shoes to an actual game being presented will replicate those results once again for a few hands or shoes, is a form of humor predicated on deliberate violations of causal reasoning, producing events and behaviors that are obviously illogical".  Period.  End of their story.  The greatest of the most intelligence people did not degrade and belittle opposing viewpoints to their own superior way with the style and persistence, that a handful do on this board as well as other gambling message boards. 

Their mentality is the exact same, no difference then defiance.  Plain and simple.  What is the type of defiance I am talking about?  I am talking about their frame-of-mind that governs their, "I am right because I am mathematically gifted and intelligence, you are guessing, your wins and success at baccarat are irrelevant because you do not understand the game and what produces the results.  Let's just take one thing that I explored years and years ago for days on end.  Hole-carding.  What a complete loony tune idea.  But of course, let me demean and belittle myself before the 5 or 6 AP'ers here do it.  "I am stupid, idiotic and do not understand math the proper way as they do, because  if I did, I would find that it is only the 4th or 7th, 8 or 9 [that you can hole-card] that will for sure, give the player side an advantage because that is when those face cards will be the 2nd card behind the 8 or the 9, etc.")  Take 8 decks of cards and shuffle them.  Mark all the 9's and 8's or whatever you believe in.  Actually deal them and mark down how many times you would win 'hole-carding', LOL.  Maybe at black jack, yes.  A 10 is very valuable at BJ.  But in baccarat an 8 or a 9 means next to nothing for the first card out.  Even with a deck rich with 10's to make them count, or any other combination of any other first 'hole' card.  You have no idea what that 3rd card is going to be.  And if you are 'hole-carding' in baccarat and winning 6 out of 10, you are purely guessing and guessing is like venereal disease to you guys, no??  What does that statement mean?  It means, that you cannot get VD from a female and do not have to use condoms because  you are scientifically positive about all of her actions due to the fact you ran all the applicable stats first before you engaged.  Or, for some of those Ap'ers, change the VD to AIDS due to them having relationships with males, I have to be fair in my statement.   

But, like I said, these math and stat and advantaged play wizards and doctors, all will combat every single person with any type of experience and success and reduce everything that they experienced, earned, found, discovered or apply—to guessing or lies.  Meanwhile, all they do is offer one or two sentences with their generic ' belittling comeback and statements' that amount to demeaning, chastising and belittling those that truly have experienced and attempt to define anything that actually helped them with the game of baccarat. 

So what is a defiant mind that these self-proclaimed "AP'ers" possess?  It is a defiant frame of mind, which 'I am correct no matter what and it is my way and everyone else is wrong'.  Pretty much the teacher/professor attitude and personality.  "I am right, you are wrong, you know next to nothing, I can show you the correct and proper way, but you have to admit I am correct and idolize me first".  Here is a YouTube video of the defiant person attempting to explain his defiant ways to a New York State Trooper.  In the end he still proclaims he was correct and committed no crime.  But he totally failed the entire point, you have to produce identification and identify yourself to a law enforcement officer no matter what.  Does not matter the reason he stopped you or confronted you.  The point is, you have to identify yourself.  Not, identify yourself only if you actually did something with guilt or not.  And the trooper was just and correct in taking the 2 into custody.  If it was not for today's atmosphere and aura, the Sheriff would have charged them all with interference and obstruction of a law enforcement officer.  So, the defiant person can never ever be wrong, he is the judge and the jury before the police officer ever stopped them.  He has an inner need to confront, argue and engage—rather than solve.  Same as in baccarat play and explanation of various styles of what can be successful.  Here is what defiant in the wrong way actually is:  'Pure defiance defined':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0L9kRUZx9VU

And, if they just produced identification which they ultimately had to do anyway, they would have been out of there without anything happening within 5 minutes. But defiance can only have an opportunity to rear its head, when there is opposition, which is what the defiant person actually lives for, not the truth or the reason of the argument itself, just the combating and point of fighting, belittling, chastising and humiliating another person.  Again, period.

Baccarat and mathematical/statistical-hole carding, etc., players that are defiant following VINs/SAPS counts, following the last winning side, wagering the opposite of the time before last or whatever.  They cite that they certainly did employ math stats and results when they win.  Then, they claim mathematical defined variance was present when they lost.  LOL.  Seriously.  Just defiance to the max in layman's terms and reality. 

Math & Stats are not wrong.  I admit.  Reality is, the order of the shoe presentments that are being produced will not replicate that of 1,000,000 or 10,000,000 or 100,000,000 shoes or hands of baccarat that was performed on any computer or in any classroom.  All it does is not allow you to capitalize on or take advantage of clusters, waves and opportunities when they are present, no mater the type of presentments that are being produced. 

Applying math and stats will forbid you to make sums of win money that far outweigh your buy-in amounts that are lost, if you do it with emotional intelligence, psychological knowledge and a darn good money management system in place. 

As far as losing, (and yes it does apply to the mathematical and stat result wagering player as well as the AP hole-carding player) the piece I wrote definitively explains why:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/how-you-lose-why-you-lose-(1-of-10-in-a-series)/

As far as math, stats and everything similar to 'hole-carding', it is no different than sheer blind guessing.  If not, the game would have been pulled or the rules changed.  Baccarat is not blackjack or poker which you guys seem to confuse it with. 

[alrelax]

" Meanwhile, all they do is offer one or two sentences with their generic ' belittling comeback and statements' that amount to demeaning, chastising and belittling those that truly have experienced and attempt to define anything that actually helped them with the game of baccarat."

[Mike]

alrelax,

Nope. I'm attacking the message, not the messenger. Don't try to "twist my words" (to use one of your favourite phrases). Patterns and progressions are useless against negative expectations games like baccarat and roulette, even though they've been used by gambler's ever since they were invented. The IDEAS are nonsense, at best useless and at worst dangerous. I'm not going to pander to anyone's fragile ego by not pointing out the simple facts that have been known for centuries by those who are more educated in these matters. And that's all it is; a matter of education. Learn basic probability and ditch the irrelevant and absurd analogies masquerading as arguments.

[alrelax]

Okay great and thanks for your comments they are absolutely wonderful. You can reserve further comment as you would only be redundant, you said your piece  to myself and Gizmo and once again thanks I do appreciate it. And for the third time thanks again I really do appreciate your input. And once my ways cease working for myself and I consistently lose more than I win, I will definitely stop the game of Baccarat and just concentrate on whatever business I happen to be engaged in.

P.S.  For whatever it is worth, to answer your degrading and chastising statement to myself, 'I Have' and I choose the opposite of what the highest majority of bac players do and the reason the same amount (the highest majority) lose their funds continually or collectively at playing bac.  I wager hard and larger when the opportunities are there, and I stall-go neutral or stop when they are not.  For example in March I won just over $40,000.00 in 3 days of play from relatively small buy-ins as compared to the average bac player.  The kicker is, I lost about $15k as I tried to defeat my own theory and not follow a protocol that has suited me extremely well providing stop points and money management.  The second kicker is, I admit when I make a mistake unlike the seasoned, professional full-time mathematical and statistical bac player such as yourself, Xander and about 3 others on this board. 

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[alrelax]

My little boy is at my office this morning as we are waiting on my guys to come in and get some equipment and expense money to head out to a job, out of state today.  He is looking over my shoulder and asked me to post this picture.  "Daddy, show them our picture and how happy you are and put me in there also", so here is a picture from one of his favorite places!!  And yes, before you say it--he likes to wear the same clothes I do, LOL. 

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[Lungyeh]

Nice one there Glen. Family above all else. God bless.