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Highlighted => Albalaha's Exclusive => Topic started by: Albalaha on October 15, 2019, 04:17:55 AM

Title: Don't push to win or brute force for a net win
Post by: Albalaha on October 15, 2019, 04:17:55 AM
This is the worst any player can do. Remember, even if you have a million chips to stake, targetting only 1 unit of  net win, variance could drag you past that, believe me.
  Playing with any kind of trigger is no safeguard, except if you are attacking the virtual limits. Even the term "virtual" itself signifies that it can be breached too. For the simplest example, take a case of martingale with a trigger of say 10 consecutive losses. Firstly, getting such triggers will take you a few thousands trials waiting fingers crossed and even that does not guarantee that a 10 step martingale after such trigger can safeguard you, for sure.
        I have posted tons of horror sessions that I could find to ward this evil idea but still find many going for that. It is sad.
I would humbly advise to never let a single unfortunate day take away all that you have earned for long. Rather, make smaller and sensible stop losses and start thereafter with a higher base bet only, not targetting to get the exceptional loss back but win ahead faster. Remember, Regression toward Mean teaches us only that after a very skewed data in a purely random thing, further data will tend to go towards mean. It never says that you will get compensatory wins and that is why increasing bets crazily doesn't necessarily help. It may rather harm you to an irreparable levels.
Title: Re: Don't push to win or brute force for a net win
Post by: alrelax on January 17, 2026, 03:01:40 AM
Absolutely correct in many many aspects.  Most will never understand the simplicity of it.
Title: Re: Don't push to win or brute force for a net win
Post by: albertojonas on January 20, 2026, 05:39:23 AM
hello.
any string of 10 results has the same probability of showing as 10 reds.
so if you play against it repeating is the same as betting 20 reds will not show.
the question is what money management and progression.
we play the progression.

Cheers
Title: Re: Don't push to win or brute force for a net win
Post by: alrelax on January 20, 2026, 01:04:28 PM
If I understand what you are asking, that is, how to make and hold profit with a progression that is winning?

I would apply the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd I have written about and explained in detail many times.  I would also use a 2 step full parlay progression max and then just pull down the winnings and eventually apply that 1/3rd to.