Glen's => Alrelax's Blog => Topic started by: alrelax on June 13, 2017, 10:50:08 pm

Title: Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)
Post by: alrelax on June 13, 2017, 10:50:08 pm
Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)                                                  
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression" is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, 'can not retract', or the 'stick to your guns' and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in.  Bad traits for a good to great Bac player, IMO!

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 minimums and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 minimums.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily, even with the lower table minimums.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens, I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you do not think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking???