You must engage in realism. Absolute 100% lack of  attitude with the physical adherence to realism during the situation you are engaged in.

After years of play, discussion, study and debate, I would have to list the four most important things to be conscious of, practice and totally engaging in, when you are gaming.

1)  Emotional = Complete neutralism but positiveness to enter into parlay progressions through readiness caused by confidence, camaraderie and related happenings.

2)  M.M.M. =  You must have a MMM that will benefit you with visible and physical positive results when you win as well as limit your losses. Gaming is available all the time, your winning is and hopefully going to produce positive results approximately 50% of your wagers and you must be able to define, use and employ additional tactics to add advantages to your buy-in and subsequently to your bank roll.

3)  Plan = Have a plan and stick with it when spot-on without deviation, but the ability to abandon when it is not profitable. Do not attempt to change, turn, convert, or believe you were were 'wronged' or that the shoe will totally pay you back in the short upcoming hands that still exist, etc. 

4)  Ability to Leave = You must have the complete ability without second thought or re-calculations to leave, whether winning or losing. The list is long but countless events will ruin wins, countless events will only add to the losses.  Both will happen, to experienced and non-experienced players. 

Quality & Substance = Stop believing the fallacy of the unspecified, undefined and 'magical', always beatable  events that are supposed to be the gateway to riches. They do not exist. In other words and in reality, if whatever it is, is producing wins for you within the shoe, continue it with the limited successful wagering decisions and acknowledgment of same, EVERY SINGLE HAND. If you do not, you will lose.

Ego & Attitude = We all have those two, no matter if you are aware of yours or not. But I will tell you something, from experience it is best to check them both when you sit down at the table. No two ways about it.

I promise you, they will hurt you the highest percentage of the times. You are not playing against the other players, the dealer or even the casino. You are playing with the shoe, please understand what I have preached, and preaching and what winning sections and shoes offer.

Your Play = Wagers/Bets/Thoughts.  (Yes thoughts are included as well). Must match what the shoe produces, nothing else. Anything else that you allowed to enter the picture, the process, the instant hand, etc., is additional baggage that will most likely hurt you in numerous ways.  Think about it and figure out what allowed you to win.  NOT what caused you to win!

Influence

Totally overpowering in the aura, the game, the whole scene.

Why?  Simply because money is powerful and that is the reason.  Nothing else.  Your mind cries out to you with clear and precise pictures of easy money and your actions follow what you perceive.

Follow what is happening and what is being presented. Do not attempt to have the shoe produce what you desire.

Get rid of all mind-frames, distractions, expectations, needs and laid out plans. Most everybody will not.  However, try it both ways and see which works better. Myself, I know.

We all have favorites. We all have great wins. We all have the desire to win. Set them aside and temporarily forget about them. Be conscious and be careful.

If it's not happening or you can not see it, stop for awhile.  It's truly the only way to play.

But, people continually Wager on Patterns, Trends or Streaks in the hopes they will appear. And when those do not, they keep wagering for those with larger and greater amounts of bets to make up. Then they stop wagering outside of their previous thoughts and then the shoe does a 180 and produces hands they needed just prior. The frustrating aura becomes larger and the cloudiness and gut wrenching turns, affects those people with huge impact. I see it all the time and I can safely say at every game I play. But the shoe was not ever going to really make those patterns, trends, streaks or anything else that the player(s) wanted.

Then the player(s) reverted their wagers back to the original desires and once again the shoe failed to produce any form of consistency to match their wagers.

What is all this called? It is called being influenced.

A word of caution.  RNGs in the free-test/free-trial internet apps or forums are by far easier to follow or predict than real gaming.  The short chop, long chop chop, clumps, streaks and equaling.  Be very careful of those apps and practice games, they are a 'suck in' for whom they are sponsored by.

Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band - Still The Same (Live From San Diego, CA / 1978)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl4fxNHUpvU


Pink Floyd - " Money " Waters / Gilmour / Mason/ Wright

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg


Kenny Rogers - "The Gambler" (Live)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aWsQIpfhbDo


CASINO" - THE ROLLING STONES - "Can't You Hear Me Knockin'?"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D6327WbFVe0



Talking Heads - Burning Down the House LIVE Los Angeles '83

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70



Ray Charles-Blackjack

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cIT5F9XMF6U

The past years, I have been writing and brick and mortar playing at casinos. I have reported frequently on the topic of baccarat and wagering mostly.  The questions that comes up over and over again: When does a person actually understand the game Baccarat; and How and when to wager.

The questions both are simultaneously elemental and complicated. If a person scans and reads other forums, YouTube content and similar Internet venues, he will become overwhelmed with a limited amount of facts, huge amounts of fiction, tons of unproven theories and drama of all types imaginable. Yes, those two questions are confusingly broad and a bit 'open ended', but are quintessential to player advantage in all ways with the utmost importance.

Unfortunately, thoughtful engagement has been severely compromised by extreme drama on the Internet forums,  where so many knowledgeable, experienced and good people have tried.  But they just don't want to put up with all of the drama that has been brought about by an exclusive circle of people that roam the Internet forums with the sole purpose of drama and skullduggery. 

The most asked question would have to be, "what should I wager to make money".  In other words, people searching for the almighty 'holy grail'.  The 'holy grail' somehow gets commercially exploited without a real guarantee and proven fact, by all the system sellers, gambling book, manual authors and pay sites to make one easy money.  Why?  Because it gives a person looking the impression of once learned, they will have the magic ticket to riches at the table.  Sad, but 100% true, there is no 'holy grail', not a single one in the game of baccarat. 

However, there are numerous 'methods', or as I like to say, 'scheduling' of wagering.  But you must first understand the game of baccarat as well as having experience with wagering and its intricacies to use money management methods and wagering on what has a much higher chance of being in your favor within the game. 

The game of baccarat is simple in the way it is played out.  It started out with three wagers; bankers, players and tie. In the 1990s and 2000s the game took on numerous side wagers, but of course maintains the original three wagers as its main and primary bets. The game has the lowest house advantage within the casino and it is virtually a 50-50 game of the bankers and players wagers. Where the game gets complicated, is within its discussions, statistics and theories as well as the commonly believed theory that the bankers wagers always has an advantage over the players wagers.  What fuels all of the disagreements?  The use of statistical results that do not apply to the limited number of shoes a person will play, no matter how often he plays.  And the beliefs of why and how hands are formed and appear or are absent while the game is played out.

Of course to play the game there is no skill needed, no real understanding required and probably quicker than any other game on the casino floor, once a little bit of money is won, the person with no real experience and understanding of the game becomes a self admitting, well-versed and successful Baccarat Player.

Mix all of the above with a great amount of armchair quarterbacks, Internet trolls, drama seeking individuals, systems and book authors that seek to capitalize on those believing the fiction of easy money and a host of other things: Which brings forth the inability to engage in real, insightful, learning from others and exploring the game and it's complexities of Baccarat past the results for the search of what is called the holy-grail. 

I have spoke in depth with countless well experienced Baccarat players exploring the questions and results they have had and found. I have written about some of them and countless other ones I have pushed off to the side because of lack of interest from the members and guests of the forum. 

The game of baccarat is much more than a coin flipping game of 50-50 guessing. The game pushes the limits of the person Wagering on it and gets to the heart of human experience in many aspects with the application of their wagers. So many would deny that but it is so true and so thick, you can cut it with a knife.

IMO and that of many great baccarat players I know, is the highest majority of all the info on the Internet about Baccarat is that of 'reversed engineering', which is re-created events from statistics that do not apply to the limited amount of shoes you will play.  Think about it, if you don't and you abide by and wager according to what should come out of the shoe because of statistical results, etc., you are the casino's best friend indeed.

*  The game of baccarat is complicated and complex;

*  The game of baccarat requires experience from those that desire to win and hold greater amounts than what they lose;

*  The game of baccarat produces events that can be capitalized on.

Well, I continuously witness the complexity of the game of baccarat just about each and every time I play it.  What am I referring to?  Just about all the time, there will be well seasoned and experienced baccarat players with sizable sums of risk capital and high average bets. Exactly what is it that convinces me?  The players and the casinos change but the following scenario seldom does. Two of them at the same table, mostly never agreeing on anything. One of them wagers and wins, the other one loses. The winner points to the scoreboard and explains what he knew had to occur without a doubt. The other one shakes his head in agreement and admits he should have supported him. Then on the next hand or a few later, the exact same scenario happens but with the reverse of the winner and loser. And the same thing continues and continues and continues and continues.

Happy New Year to everyone.  Wish you all the best in every way!

Alrelax,
Administrator
Forum Owner
Baccarat Player

I had an in depth conversation with another bac player this morning.  We discussed numerous appearing presentments as well as those same presentments failing to appear, etc.

Well, just remember, as many times as some thing works in baccarat, likewise the times it does not will just about be equal and can easily outnumber the times it does. There's no set schedule from shoe to shoe to shoe or even within a single shoe, that things will be repetitive enough and consistent enough to use anything as a trigger on a constant basis.

However, do not fall prey to that!  You must pump it with a positive progression if you are playing to win and win sizable.

Confusion sets in a high amount of times, so be careful. Because confusion will change your thought process, your energy and your wagering judgment. With that said, influence, balancemeant, beliefs and of course desires—-all are heavy factors, always influencing most all of us all the time.

When it is there and appearing, you must wager heavier, rather than waiting to see what is going to happen.  IMO. 

Police said the 35-year-old man was playing baccarat last week when he allegedly moved his losing bet to a winning section on the table while the dealer wasn't looking, collecting $1,000 in chips.


https://abc7chicago.com/rivers-casino-des-plaines-gambler-arrested/12624669/

Winning is Dangerous.  Mind Changing.  Disruptive to Schedules.

REASONING.  Winning is powerful.  Winning changes most all player's plans/schedules and protocols of wagering.  Why?  Because winning is reality and reality overrules anticipated and not yet realized possibilities. Remember that, it took me a lot of years to learn it I admit. 

Why did I just write that?  Because I developed a schedule of wagering selection to stretch over 105 sessions.  The sessions are short in the normal sense of bac play as well as not producing what the highest amount of regular bac players (and I truly mean almost all) are accustomed to winning.  However, the schedule each time, has a true 80% + chance of success and after just 3 sessions, all that is at risk, is the buy-in that is 100% profit as well.  In other words, not your bank roll, just a previously won buy-in as risk capital.  Remember, as I have preached over the years, your buy-in must be only a portion of your bank roll.

So why am I bringing up winning and this apparently negative info?  Because it is 100% fact and 100% in the casino's favor.  Read on.  I sat down at the bac table last week, bought in and as I reached my goal, not once but twice, winning affected me and sidetracked me to abandon my scheduled play, even though I accomplished my session goal twice and not even within the first session, but another one the following evening as well.

INFLUENCE IS HUGE.  Influence affects us all. Influence mixed with others winning or the all too famous, "I was going to bet that but wasn't sure so I sat out", and if the result was a win, you would have been influenced and affected. As well, if the result was you would have lost, again you would have been influenced and affected. So, if you don't think you can be influenced at the table you better sit down and really think it out, because you are continually influenced.

REMEMBER-ALWAYS ALWAYS.  Every shoe, things win and things lose.  Every shoe, those same things that won previously, can and do lose presently.  And, the same things that lost previously, win presently. Of course not in a 100% consistency of order, but an amount that will give you a large disadvantage if you are attempting a 'pure system/method'. 

COMBAT IN YOUR FAVOR.  What I will subscribe to and without question, be governed by, are the following:

* Emotional Neutralism;
* My M.M.M. allocation of my scheduled results;
* The Plan;
* The Absolute ability to leave with the results;
* An Absolute clear frame-of-mind that does not align; or compare anything except what my schedule is.

And all of those have to be coupled with:

>>>  Total conscious thought of the five items every second you are wagering or waiting to wager.

SIMPLE SUMMATION. IMO you cannot mix what works, what might work, what has made me profit in the past, what has cost me buy-ins in the past, following others and luck is setting in; in order to create a positive and consistent goal in a game that is called baccarat.

You must have the upper hand with 200% total consciousness of the 5 highlighted areas in the section above, 'Combat In Your Favor'.

15 Things.....

I made some notes and although I don't want to go into each here.  It is not about my thoughts at this time.  What about yours?  Spur some conversation.  Throw something out there.  Just trying to stop the, "Oh yeah, I did that and I made 4 units and then cashed out", or the , "I seen that once and it did not work", thing.  Anyone want to comment and detail out what your path was?

Real gambling is much more than buy-in, grinding a few units and leaving, each and every day or sporadically.  I have as well as countless others, made 100's of thousands at a baccarat table and everything up to that and more than that.  Straight losses, straight wins, push back and forth like a roller coaster.  Follow others, wager against others, high limit, main floor, players handling the cards, dealer handles cards, big table where the players actual deal the cards as well. 

People really want to talk and get down into the reasoning's and details? 

15 Real Topics:


1)    Actual Thought Processes?

2)    Sections/Turning Points describe and identify?

3)    Resetting/Refreshing describe and identify?

4)    Translating a pattern/trend/presentment section to reality and coupling Wager-ability/Vulnerability to it?

5)    Is there a point or an ultra 'key trigger' that really pushes you to go for it?

6)    1's & 2's, 3's & 4's, 5's & 6's, do you follow or are you influenced?

7)    During a streak, wagering to the 'cut', or 'opposite' side?

8    Amount of hands you successfully or negatively wager as a regular event, define it?

9)    Resetting/Refreshing, what amount will you allow yourself to be influenced and guide you?

10)    Do you consciously know when you are being influenced?

11)    The proverbial and no good 'Rut', they are correct, and then they are wrong.  Do you get sucked in and what do you do to get out of it?

12)    What influences you more or greater than anything?

13)    Point values, naturals, reductions on the 3rd cards, what has meaning to you and why?

14)    Does winning change the way you wager, or is it the amount of hands without relation to the $$ factor/value?

15)    Wagering.  Bank roll, Buy in, Plateaus/Levels, Positive Progressions, Money Management System 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd, 1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager?

I have tried to lead a positive, useful and informative view of baccarat for years. As a member various forums, a moderator and in a Administrative position as well as Owner of this forum. 

I have read, studied and researched the best possible ways I could, every single theory, discussion and claim stated on countless  websites and forums I came across, and as well, in person conversations with hundreds of fellow players of every single type.

With that said, I did not intend to ruin anything for anyone or myself, I exposed much of what I found a sheer nonsense and complete formation of fallacy. No way did I wish for that, but only to convene with other enthusiasts and showing the absolute glorious and rare experiences of "GREAT" wins, as well as "REGULAR" ones, while exposing things that lead us to the ugly "LOSING" ones. But, as the circle of 'drama driven queens' would have it, the internet and the drama had its way with it over the years. 

Instead I came out of the past with more of an exact  vision within and about the game of baccarat and the brick and mortar casino world.  While I do wish I never entered into the obsessive and upsetting to many—squaring off, between members-sock puppets-guests and myself in the past, it is what it is and was in the past.

While I am happy to know more about baccarat, people, members of the forums and other casinos players, I just wish I had not went down a few of the paths that I have.

Now.  I have found something that I genuinely and wholeheartedly believe is a most prosperous protocol to play according to.  It is governed by several things including; emotions, psych control, neutralism and a whole new outlook on wagering amounts and the length of playing time coupled with an absolute realistic play schedule, that totally is advantageous to the player over the casino. 

1)  GRIEF and RELIEF.  Both grief and relief  are often merged together and justified to account for losing. Sad but very true you must admit.  2)  BELIEF.  Belief plays a huge part of what happens at the table which we seldom, if ever really question, research or allow for, within our decision making process.  3)  REALIZATION.  And almost none of us ever realize or ever change. 

I'm looking forward to bringing my discovered and well thought-out wagering protocol schedule with the ways I developed it to those interested in the near future.

I have to credit the naysayers, the derogatory and the very infamous forum-to-forum criticizers that specialize only in disruption. Without them I probably would have quit a heck of a long time ago.

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Well guys, tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season.

Wishing everyone a great Thanksgiving and a holiday season!

Pausing gratefully to express thanks to all for your contributions.  Efforts help make us a 'real' forum without all the infighting and similar.

Have a wonderful day and everyday thereafter!

Alrelax
Board Owner and Administrator

I want to state a basic example of Positive Progression Wagering.  IMO, I believe the 1-3-2-6 is the most lucrative and easiest to capture, while protecting the gambler of ruin, due to losing his realization of around the corner losses upcoming.

Remember, there are many variations, with denominations galore in Positive Progression Wagering. 

1-3-2-6. (Exampled using $100.00 unit):

Wagers:

First bet:  $100.00
Second bet:  $300.00
Third bet:  $200.00
Fourth bet:  $600.00

Reasonings:

First bet is a portion of your risk capital buy-in.  If you lose, you lost 1 unit of your risk capital.  If you win, parlay and move on to the second bet.

Second bet is parlaying your win and 1 additional unit from your risk capital buy-in for a $300.00 wager.  If you lost, you return to 1 unit wagering and you are down 2 units.

Third bet means you won your second wager.  Now you are in great position!  You return $200.00 to your buy-in stack, you set-aside $200.00 and you wager the remaining $200.00 from your $600.00 end of 2nd bet, on your third wager.  If you lose this wager, you are still $200.00 ahead for additional  wagering attempts at $100.00 each.  If you win this third bet you move to the fourth wager.

Fourth bet will progress to $600.00.  You will parlay the third bet win and add the $200.00 you had set-aside with a win from the second bet.  You have zero risk capital out there and a total wager of $600.00 looking for a $1,200.00 win.  If you lose, sure it sucks, but you didn't lose a penny of risk capital. 

If you win the fourth bet, you must go back to one unit wagering and right there is exactly where almost all players go down the wrong path and will greatly increase their wagering amounts with doom waiting. I would personally go back to the same amount or possibly 1.5 times, or a max of double.  Example.  If I was wagering the above $100.00 unit, I would start again with $100.00 or possibly $200.00. 

Just thought I would throw this out there.  Because there are highly debated continual topics regarding gambling with mathematics and/or statistical results versus the reality and instant 'what is happening', etc.

Everything worth anything in most things is presentment and what it actually is, not perceived, not history, not dreamsville, not what someone else says it should be or is going to be, not what another person makes up and so on. Presentment--Reality--Actual Events Happening.  IMO better and far superior in countless ways than the results of mathematicians/statisticians and systems experts. 

Let's review the that famous/infamous 'Martingale' betting strategy that is so widely endorsed and swore by on so many forums out there.

Let's get it straight up front whom is preaching it.  IMO it is those systems sellers and those that are the classic armchair quarterback with their selective free-test game simulators to prove their theories and how easy it is to beat the game of baccarat. 

It's the end of the month so I take an hour or and scan most of the forums out there.  Nothing has really  changed, plenty of Martingale swear-bys with anywhere from 6 to 12 repeative doubles to recoup the losses and win one unit.

Well, before you start subscribing to such a strategy and theory, you better realize the numbers involved, as well as table limits, both min and max wagering.

Martingale is simple.  Wager on the same thing, no matter what it is with doubling the next wager after a losing one.  Does not matter if you are wagering for the same side to repeat itself or say chop-chop.  Whatever you are wagering for, if you lose, the very next wager is double the amount, wagering double each bet until you win and recoup the losses and profit one unit, your very first wager you lost.

Sounds good when forum people put it into their agendas and justify risking the Martingale increasing amounts each time.

Well I will tell you honestly how I have physically witnessed countless people lose huge sums of buy-in risk capital on just the very belief of Martingale wagering.  I see it all the time, through the other's own admission or not.

Some swear by 6 times and others swear by 12 times. 

1.00
2.00
4.00
8.00
16.00
32.00  6th wager risked $63.00
64.00
128.00
256.00
512.00
1,024.00
2,048.00  12th wager risked $4,095.00

5.00
10.00
20.00
40.00
80.00
160.00  6th wager risked $315.00
320.00
640.00
1,280.00
2,560.00
5,120.00
10,240.00  12th wager risked $20,475.00

25.00
50.00
100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00  6th wager risked $1,575.00
1,600.00
3,200.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00 
51,200.00  12th wager risked $102,375.00

50.00
100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00
1,600.00  6th wager risked $3,150.00
3,200.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00
51,200.00
104,400.00  12th wager risked $206,750.00

100.00
200.00
400.00
800.00
1,600.00
3,200.00  6th wager risked $6,300.00
6,400.00
12,800.00
25,600.00
51,200.00
104,400.00
208,800.00  12th wager risked $415,500.00

Okay, I totaled out 6 and 12 Martingale wagers for $1.00, $5.00, $25.00, $50.00 and $100.00 beginning bets above. Just for comparison I throw in the $1.00 and $5.00 bets, but I have never seen a brick and motar casino offering such on their live tables.

As far as limits it is pretty much the following:

$10.00/$1,000.00

$25.00/$1,000.00-2,000.00-2,500.00 and sometimes $5,000.00 (very few $$10,000.00)

$50.00/$2,000.00-$2,500.00-$5,000.00 and $10,000.00

$100.00/$10,000.00

$200.00/$15,000.00

$300.00-$500.00/$20,000.00 or $25,000.00

There is one casino outside of Chicago that has been offering $10.00/$100,000.00.  Yes, $100,000.00.  If they are still offering it, I don't know in 2022.

At a decent table, you'll get to the 7th, maybe the 8 th wager before hitting table max limits.  Maybe less at a lot of places.  Reference the $25.00/$50.00/$100.00 bets.

Now, as far as risk, so many people are hell bent on the 4-5 or 6 spot/space NOT repeating 'whatever' to break the losing bad luck/bad choice they made several times, they absolutely believe that is all that can/will happen.  Well you better believe that is why the casino allows scoring and even puts up a score board for you! 

Martingale does not and cannot stop Variances from coming out to kill you and take your 4th through 12th risked Martingale wager in a heart beat!! 

Something to always remember. 

1). Everything will not happen.
2). Everything wil happen.
3). Everything looks like it will happen but doesn't
      then it does when you do the opposite.

You think and believe baccarat is a 50/50 game, it is not, not by far for the few shoes you sit down to play. 

Here look at this picture of a score board at a live casino.  It is a $50.00 min to $10,000.00 max wager.  Pretty standard, the $10,000.00 table limit is usually either a $50.00 or $100.00 min, depending on how busy they are.

If you were on the Players side when that Banker streak of 14 hit, you would have been required to have $835,200.00 to wager the 15 times at a $50.00 table.  But no casino in the world would allow that kind of table max wager anyway. $10,000.00 would be just about the highest almost anywhere. 

13th wager $208,800.00
14th wager $417,600.00
15th wager $835,200.00

You see what I mean now?

PLUS, VERY IMPORTANT:  Add up your occasional Martingale loss to the max allowed to the table limits.  Then add up how many little tiny first round wagering minimums you have to profit to make up a few of those maxed out Martingale losses that will come, I promise you they will.  No doubt about it.

Also, in the picture of the scoreboard below, look at the Players little streaks.  Say you were on Bankers side.  You would have faced 2 times a 5 Players streak and you would have needed 6 Bankers to recoup your $50.00 bet.  That would have been $1,600.00 each time on the 6th wager at risk, with a total cumulatively risked at $3,150.00.  Then there was a 7 Player streak and you would have had a continuous Banker wager with the 8th one being $6,400.00.  You would have had a total of $12,750.00 at risk.  If it went once more on the Players, you could not have placed a $12,800.00 wager to recoup you lost attempts. 

You can't wager a few and then say it's not going to happen.  Thinking you will stay on the ones that suddenly revert to what you wanted and you will stop wagering on the ones that might take all your Martingale wagers. 

I do occasionally engage in a negative Martingale if I am hell-bent on something I see or am following, etc.  But I will limit myself to 2 maybe 3 times in all cases on the 'chase' back.  Let's just say, I have learned from experience. And I admit, I have learned the hard way.

Think about the really insane drama dribble people are putting out there on the internet, forums, YouTube, systems sellers, etc., etc. It's sad in so many ways.

The real key to winning.......Thinking with a clear frame of mind. 

Play smart.  Play wise.

Okay everyone, here is a golden classic, The Vesper Martini. 

What is it?  Well it's a Martini that was introduced by Vesper Lynd, a fictional character from the James Bond author, Ian Fleming in the original 1953 Casino Royale movie. 

Here is a link to Vesper Lynd's bio.  Now bear in mind the catchphrase, "Shaken, Not Stirred", which was immortalized in Bond films.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesper_Lynd

3 oz Gin
1 oz Vodka
1/2 oz Lillet aperitif
Lemon twist

However, a bit of a twist with the same ingredients.

Equal parts of the 3 alcohol products.

Gin
Vodka
Lillet aperitif
Lemon twist

Shaken extremely well with 1 ice cube, rub the inside of the lemon twist on the rim of the glass all the way around it and drop it in the glass.

Enjoy!

The purpose here is to bring forward the real 'meat' of playing baccarat.  After all, that is why we are here right?

Below I will post several pictures of a B&M bac score board from the other night.  I will state I am not mad, I am not angry, just a but embarrassed.  I won and won nicely in fact, but this was a killer shoe against the casino with huge player advantages. 

A great shoe to bring forth on the forum and talk about.  Some great examples of what happens, not in rarity by any means, usually only this 'player advantaged' in Sections, but this shoe has so many player advantaged give me's throughout the entire shoe.

Okay, some facts about the shoe.

*  The last 20 hands were one or two bankers, one or two players, and one time there were four bankers in a row. There was another Fortune 7 about hand 55 as well.

*  Low '0-1-2-3' ties as I have wrote about so much, in the first 45 hands!

*  There was a total of 6 Fortune 7s.  Hands 4-13-17-28-35 and one in the 60's.

*  Only two players maximum the whole shoe. I want to repeat that, the entire shoe had only two players maximum.

*  The group of 5 natural players, hands 53-59 was actually a group of 7, because there were 2 additional player naturals at hands 61 and 62.

*  One 3 card banker 9-player 0 as shown in the picture.  There were also lots of 3 card banker 8s-player 0s, at least 10 of them.

*  Maximum of 3 repeating sideways for both the bankers and the players throughout on the Bead Plate.

One of the best in the entertainment world. 


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X3nr1xqbsbA&t=156s

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t3SPY13b64M

You are always in the short term. I don't care what anyone says and I don't care how you look at it but that is reality. You cannot play the long term no matter how many sessions, years or whatever you were going to engage in and be able to win anything sizable and keep it going in the game of Baccarat.

You have to win. And that's why you play the game. You can only win what's in front of you. And that is short term, it is a very tiny piece of any statistical outcome of baccarat. Extremely tiny and the shoe being played has an unknown placement within those statistics you might believe in.  Even if you were wagering on the most favorable triggers with the highest advantage to the player, you will still be playing within the smallest of the tiniest sections of those statistics you were believing in, from replicating itself in the shoe you were sitting in front of wagering real money on.

Simulation after simulation after simulation, when compared will be in some kind of contradiction to each other. Why? Because that is the way the game of baccarat is. One set of hundreds of thousands of shoes, millions of hands, compared to another set are and will never be the same.  Most simulations and the highest amount of them at that, are done by mathematicians and people that do not gamble and are generally done in a journalistic style for proving other points then in the reality of day-to-day gambling at the game.  Believe what you want, I know better.

Most will not believe this but all they can do is talk me down. Used to really annoy me, but now all I do is laugh and continue with what I know. Which is the proper and smart way to play baccarat.

If you really desire to match up with statistics, God bless you. But the probability and ability to do that and constantly win, will be so lopsided with losses and breaking even sessions, the casinos will love you and roll the red carpets out.

Somehow you need to define your wagering decision making process. Sure, a few times here and there, nothing wrong with a small number of sheer guesses. But most all of the players that are winning more consistently are following something they have found comfort in, profit more than losses and put value in themselves while ignoring statistical rubbish and constant superstition based wagering.  Disclaimer:  As I have said many times, if it's working for whatever reason, follow it and wager on it until it stops.  A win or wins are just that and doesn't matter why you wagered on them.

Be extremely careful of and totally conscious of those claiming Baccarat wagering is easily won by arbitrary and capricious wager placements following some mechanical structured wagering, correlating with a set of statistical  results. Be careful, because it will not work, never with any kind of ongoing consistency that is.

As many times as something works, likewise the times it does not will easily equal or outnumber the times it does.

You have to wager on what the shoe is presenting and do so in a progressive wagering and parlaying fashion or you will not profit.

Remember, short term is what you are playing, there is no long-term that can be effectively applied to this game. Never.

Be smart. Be in Reality and Win!

A successful player IMO must (MUST) have the following and know 100% the value of each and what they are.

Bankroll.  Your total gross funds set aside for gambling Buy-in money.  Your total Bankroll should be 20 times your Buy-in amount.  Your Bankroll must be replenished at the end of EVERY single gambling session if won.  If you lost more than one consecutive session, once you do win, all winnings held onto, must replenish your Bankroll.  All winnings over your Bankroll, should be used for other things, rather than gaming and the fallacy of increasing your Bankroll will make you rich and all that ridiculous trash.  (Sorry but it doesn't work that way). IMO, all that playing to build larger Bankrolls will do, is devalue the Bankroll itself to you and cause you to play well outside of your true 'Level and Plateau'.

Buy-in.  Your risk capital funds you are bringing to the casino to buy-in with.  I would seriously recommend one Buy-in with the total view as risk-capital.  If you lose the Buy-in, session/trip over.  A Buy-in should never be in excess of 10% of your Bankroll.  Note:  Maybe an extended multi-day trip say a long weekend out of town.  3 Buy-ins, covering 3 days attempt to profit.  Once a session is well above your Buy-in with wins, you must implement MMM with some kind of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd type of money management for your winning funds to be 100% safe.

The question is surprisingly hard to answer in some ways and in other ways it's really easy. But before I try, let's define what exactly is meant by being random, along with random values from card draws.

When discussing card values from a definitive shoe of six or eight decks of cards, a random card (always the next one) is drawn from a set of possible values, each of which is equally probable in statistical value when matched with another one or two by the rules that might be drawn.  This is called a uniform distribution, because the distribution of probabilities for each value of each hand for both players and bankers is uniform, the same, across the range of possible hand values.  This is because each side has the same possible value of the two or three cards once added together by the rules of the game. Example, Players having a two and a seven equals the value of nine, Banker having a two and a seven will equal a nine also and so on. If there was a situation where a face card was worth greater or less to either side or any other card for that matter, then it would not be an equal uniform distribution of possibilities.

Understandably, some cards may be more advantageous to one of the sides than the other side but the cards still have the same exact value to either side.

Now carrying it one step further which so many fail to do. Therefore I say the probability of each side, players and bankers, have the same random probability to come up with exactly the same hand value as the opposite side does.  Because there will be an unknown sequence of random hand values originating from a true uniform distribution of the cards causing statistically independent events, which are independent in their occurrences due to the rules concerning when a fifth and/or sixth card must be drawn.  The latter is what is ultimately the most confusing part about trying to figure out what side is going to prevail when you are wagering on the game.

Sure there are random variables and statistics that go along with those, but to the person wagering at the Baccarat table, it means nothing because before those first four cards come out, both the player and banker have an equal uniform distribution chance to receive good or bad value cards. This is due to the previous hands as well as the remaining hands yet to be distributed.

What the above means is, the drawing of four or five or six cards and the value of the two or three cards of those for each side, does not make it less likely to occur again in the game in any particular order. Which is exactly why you may get hands 1 through 12 to be pure chop-chop and all of a sudden, hands 13 through 28 to create a 15 card Players or Bankers streak. 

So, why is it so difficult to figure out a given sequence with any kind of consistency in the game of baccarat? Because the shoe actually does in reality produce truly random hands, meaning both sides are equally likely to appear in the short run, 60 to 80 hands to receive anything and everything in no particular order or repeat itself with any kind of consistency within the same shoe or any following shoe. And repetitive consistency with some kind of mechanical trigger is what 99.9% of all players are looking for in the game of baccarat.

And what actually is in the casinos favor, is the shoe will produce sequences that look non-random to the human eye, a series of chops, doubles, triples cut to the other side, natural or ties stick or cut, streaks, etc. and so on. Which all of the aforementioned also fail any statistical tests that we might run concerning the sequence(s)as to why they happened. And that my friend is why there is so much drama in the mathematical and statistical understanding and the application of such to the game of baccarat.

It is impossible to prove definitively whether a given sequence of player or banker hands is going to occur at any time because of such and such or any event that has happened or not happened. The reason being, is the uniform sequence distribution that is available to both sides, not just one.

Everything detectable in baccarat eventually happens without any detectable order of presentment in a shoe because of the unknown order of cards being generated and valued after exposed. Re-read that with the emphasis on the words, unknown order of cards.

So, if it is impossible to predict randomness, what can we do to predict winning hands? I would strongly say, that we should expect some sequences to be perfectly parallel as well as, those that look non-random or simply lopsided. Do not limit yourself to the consistency or the inconsistency as the indication of what to wager. Rather, be alert to the sequences producing parallel or lopsided outcomes and siding with those.

I hope some of you have found this interesting because it took some extra effort to put it together.

As I have said many many times, THINK.

Stats for most all states concerning sports betting revealing the following:

Handle: Amount wagered over the time period.

Revenue: Amount of money kept by sportsbooks out of the amount wagered.

Hold %: How much revenue sportsbooks keep as a function of handle.

Taxes/state revenue: Taxes collected by state and local jurisdictions; or state share of proceeds in revenue-sharing markets.

The numbers reflect all reported numbers starting in June 2018 to date.


https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/

But to the highest majority at the tables it sure does. Either to 'show off' to the others, or to attempt to satisfy their own ego that they have it all figured out, etc.  Winning is money and it certainly spends the exact same way whatever the reason it was that caused you to wager.

Camaraderie is one thing among a couple/few players and getting on to a win-streak and clearly pumping up your wagers as well as your A-Alpha energy is another positive thing, but all of those that attempt control of the table because of their egotistical voodoo to show off and fuel their sheer guesses while continually pointing to the score board explaining why such and such has to happen, is total upcoming negativity by the boat loads about to set in. 

The keys to winning are really narrowed down to two things.

1). What wins this session/shoe/section probably won't, might to a limited manner, or definitely will not in the following ones.

2). Anything, including the presentments you have never experienced can and will occur and win.

Remember, at least try to anyways the above two things because baccarat is a game of presentments that make appearances as well as disappearances. The tricky part is there is no balance, rhyme or reason as far as the statistical definable number between the appearances and the disappearances.

Everyone seems to be looking for a trigger.

At the tables.  Within the forums.  When talking with other players. Right or wrong?  Good or bad?  Safe or dangerous?

What is the trigger?
When will the trigger appear?
How long will a trigger last?
Is the trigger truly redundant/repetitive?

I believe I have witnessed them all at real B & M casinos. As well, I have read about countless ones on various forums  and other gaming related Internet sites. Streaks, chops, doubles, triples, four IARs, ones-twos-threes-threes-twos-ones, tie cuts, tie sticks, certain third card numbers will cause the next hand to win or lose, naturals stick or cut, and many many many more.

And what most people do playing baccarat is, engage in a trigger belief that certain events will cause the following hand to be a winner because of what has just occurred. FYI, in absolute statistical reality that will occur less then a 50-50 chance, in fact a lot less.

It works while it is presently appearing and a greater amount of times than it worked, it will also not work.  The whole reasoning behind why the casino provides electronic scoreboards costing thousands and thousands of dollars in product cost as well as maintenance.  As well, also the reasoning why all casinos provide pens and scorecards and most will virtually allow players to have their own clipboards with elaborate notes, etc., right at the table. 

What actually happens is, that the shoe presentments will present the anticipated trigger less winning times then losing times. Don't believe me? Run it for yourself. Live as well as right on your kitchen table. Buy eight decks of cards, shuffle them, cut and burn, deal over and over. Watch, note and absorb. Every single trigger you can think of will be presented. Keep track of how many will produce your following winning hand and how many produced a following losing hand. Record how many times those third card pulls for either side causes the following hand to win or lose. Record how many times those ties and naturals do the same thing. Record how many times BB-P, or BBB-P, or PP-B, or PPP-B, as well all the other ones, produces your following winning hand. Record it all.  You might be amazed that your tigger wins 2 or 3 times out of every 10 times or so it appears.  But I know from my years of playing that the wins by those triggers on the following hands, is going to be much less than 50% of the times that they appear.

All misnomers. There's no other way to describe it. Each and everyone of them. The designation of a winning or losing hand yet to present itself based on what has happened, is such foolishness and wishful thinking, it baffles my mind to the maximum.

Your redundant and repetitive upcoming chances to win, lies within small sections before and after each turning point is established.  All based upon what the shoe is presenting, not what you desire the shoe to produce.

So the game has a negative expectation, so what? You can afford yourself an advantage by not continuously wagering mechanically for one side or the other, as well as, not continuously following any other event whenever it appears. If you do, you will definitely be on the negative side of a 50-50 chance to remain solvent, let alone be a winner.

In other words, wagering  continuously for anything to continue or cut, is the absolute wrong way to play the game. Because if you do, you have 100% subjected  yourself to the negative expectation that the game is statistically proven to afford the player.

First of all, wins are much tougher to handle and manage for most all players versus their losing sessions.

It's not easy to explain all in a thread on most forums, because the post will become lengthy, complex and take all sort of directions.  As well people will dismiss what the whole purpose of the thread is. But I'm going to attempt to put something out there, that I partially wrote about in the past and something that happened recently that's easy to explain.

Just a few days ago at a B&M casino, late at night after a full days work of 12 hours which was following a previous nights short play with a session win. So, I remove my original buy-in and returned to the casino with 'pure' win money having nothing to do with my bank roll or other personal pocket money. Which to me, gives me an extra advantage with deeper and clearer frame-of-mind when I start playing.

Having a complete clear frame-of-mind and a very positive motivational thought in my opinion are huge player advantage avenues. I was willing to risk the 'pure' win money I brought as a buy-in for the session. 

Okay, while playing you better realize plenty!  No matter if you are winning or losing.

How much can I win?
How much am I prepared to lose?
Can I recoup my current losses and get back positive?
I am winning, I don't want to give it back, should I stop?
Thinking, if I stop while winning, I can't win more.

While winning you are in many ways encouraged to continue, by yourself, other persons and even the casino personnel. Be careful and be conscious of EVERYTHING is all I can say, as it will give you 'fake' support. And that normally results in a loss of your winning an additional bankroll monies.

When you begin to lose while winning, it will most likely be more emotional, produce a greater level of frustration, causing you to blackout clear thought process quicker, and hamper your ability to clearly apply knowledge-experience and intuition in deeper amounts than if you did not already win.

When you have no more money, handling it is really no problem, no dilemma, you must quit, PERIOD.  But, winning is really the total opposite.

Anyone that has won sizable amounts at the table runs into a much more difficult decision making process. Play or quit. Countless people continue or stop and start again at another table or casino rather quickly. Doing so usually results in a complete loss of that win money as well as additional monies.

Most people do not subscribe to their own Levels and Plateaus or do they believe in withholding their buy-in and applying their win, to other outside things rather than gaming.  All they see is increased bets, longer play, larger winning, finally realizing they are conquering the game and similar false and very dangerous avenues they plan to adhere to.

All the gobbledygook on the Internet about applying wins to your bank roll, wagering larger and more aggressively is dead wrong. 100% wrong! It will hurt you and hurt you in very big ways.  Gaming, wagering, frame-of-mind and all the many other things that will determine your wins and losses and how you handle them, will not follow with larger bank rolls, larger bets, larger wins, 'type of plan'. At this time I can't put it into exact words but I will tell you, it will play on your decision making process the total opposite way of what you should be thinking and subscribing to.

Myself, I attempt to apply numerous M.M.M. traits, that I have written about. They work well for myself without any doubt. But discipline must still be applied and adhered to.  Which is very possible but not easy. Especially when the wins come and come nicely.

While I was winning the other night, after I doubled my buy-in, I did lose most of my win. Numerous thoughts of stopping were addressed and I went slightly outside of my norm of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of my win money. I did apply my buy-in as current win money, what I normally do not do. But in this case I did it.

I began to win again and really took off with larger and more aggressive wins. I became more aggressive and that paid off nicely, which is generally against the norm and past experiences I might add. I got to the point where I easily won 5 to 6 times the amount of my buy-in. Once again, the thought process was only to play and keep playing. Should I have stopped when I won 5 to 6 times the buy-in amount I was at?  I can not honestly answer that.  After a bit, I once again began to lose, my win level dropped quickly down to the point I quadrupled my buy-in.  I stopped.  To slow myself down, I was actually getting up and texting a member from this forum.  Sending pics of the score board, etc. 

The dilemma i was in, I was very conscious of was, buy-in doubled, lost win and continued playing got me up to 5 to 6 times the buy-in. Lost 1 to 2 times the buy-in. Stop or continue, plenty of 'won' ammunition to possibly get up to double what I had in front of me. Meaning 9 or 10 or 11 times the buy-in or double the four times buy-in and win sitting in front of myself. I wanted to stop, but equally as much, I wanted to continue. I stopped and cashed out.

I could have continued and maybe won a lot more than what I did, but I know of the extreme frustration that could have set in if I continued to lose and I am not a close friend with that kind of frustration.

Frustration is dangerous and frustration makes good/great players do stupid things. Remember that.

I had a nice win. Now at least a week or more without going back. And when I do, it is back to my same Level and Plateau before that win, I am comfortable with and I know I am at. Anything else IMO, experience and knowledge, is not to my advantage in anyway whatsoever.

Reality is still king and will always be the number one thing that allows you to win and the number one thing as well, that causes you to lose at a session.

I have written about it many times in one form or another. But, it seems with the questions I receive and the previous comments, most people do not understand it or simply choose to ignore it. As well, I see it consistently at the baccarat table no matter where I play at.

What do I mean, the following is what I mean. The reason the table game is there in the first place is, the money generates to the casino property for its existence. If you think you can go in and beat the house with any kind of simple or elaborate Wagering schedule, that will stand up to what the shoe presents, shoe after shoe, you are 100% dead wrong my friend. And that is a good example of reality at play. Consistently at play that is, shoe after shoe. 

Do not fool yourself. Reality will govern how you think, how you wager and how your plans with their entire 'perfect', well thought out and strategic thinking will actually play out in the casino. Why? Because of influence, perception and your very own self-confidence with ego mixed right within. All of it equals emotional frustration at some point, that can jeopardize the best of plans. Reality will add unknown amounts of influences to almost all players. 

Be careful at the table. You have to remain completely conscious as to what you are doing. Easier said than done. I do not mean looking at the scoreboard or following someone on an extreme heater or someone losing every wager and betting the opposite. I do not mean wagering for the anti-streak or following the streak. I do not mean anything about actual bet selection whatsoever.

Reality is the presentments of the shoe without any other influences whatsoever. Not the shuffle, not the cut or the burn. Not a whole host of other things. Reality is going to prove an unknown number of chops, streaks, ones and twos, doubles, triples, and any combination of those types of trends, without rhyme or reason. Reality will also produce a completely different outcome in the following shoe or possibly close to the same, no telling until it is said and done. Reality could and quite frequently produce an extremely predictable Section of presentments or perhaps a totally unpredictable section of events. That is a good example of reality at play as well.

Reality dictates you will win if you wager with the shoe rather than a much harder task of, wagering for the shoe to present what you desire. 

If you do not believe what I am saying here, go to the casino with a set mechanical schedule of wagering selections or any other set of beliefs as to why and how hands form. Wager just those while ignoring the entire surrounding of everything and anything. Does not matter how many wagers your schedule is, three or six or nine or 18 or every hand. Play that and keep playing just that. See how long and how much you can profit week after week.

Once you understand what reality truly is at the baccarat table, you will become a more profitable player with a larger hold of the wins and much better control of your losses.