AsymBacGuy above:

"...Baccarat literature has never investigated whether bac successions are really random, neither about how the "dependency" factor could be measured as both parameters were simply ascertained as 1) a sure feature (all shoes are randomly produced) and 2) any new hand is completely disjointed from previous hands...."

I agree. Most Bac literature(i.e., book authors) as well as system sellers and such simply repeat what previous literature/book authors/system sellers and such, have parroted for decades.



"...So under the eyes of gambling experts baccarat remains a random EV- game.

This is a 1 billion false statement, such people didn't know the best definition of randomness ever made, let alone how much a finite slight dependent model will act by transforming it into a unrandom sequence...."

The word random or randomness, in casino games is often used very loosely by most, at least IMO. I too have likely been guilty of using in its most generic/broad form. 

Random doesn't  mean scattered evenly.

Which is how I perceive many use (or misuse) it.

Considering potential for Advantage Play and Edgewise, which is better and why?

Baccarat (P or B), Craps Line Bets(Pass or don't), BlackJack BasicStrategy?

 
Obviously all low house edge/ SD is comparable.

re: Baccarat, with a H.E. just over 1%.
Though according to many book authors supposedly card counting/ sequence counting, et al approaches,...etc doesn't improve ones probability of success.

re: Blackjack--I probably haven't played a hand since my freshman year in college (Single deck @ $1),  so no opinion/ no expertise. Though allegedly some players can get an edge with Basic Strategy w optimal play. However, casinos frequently sell little laminated cards in their gift shops with  Basic Strategy. Therefore, I am hesitant to think that approach is a concern for the casino.

re: Craps Line Bets(P or D). I've played line bets and agree they are low H.E. and low SD. However, I don't know all the other wagers. Though, I do know they are significantly higher H.E. vs Line Bets.



Q: Which is better and why?



Thx in advance,

AsymBacGuy above:

"..."It's completely obvious that longer streaks will come out more isolated than clustered, and when they are not most of the times is because a shortage of streaks happened so far...."

    I concur.
I think we all agree the referenced shoe above was quite the anomaly. The most difficult obstacle for the players at that table will be to realize "when its over its over." The majority will very likely never see that shoe again. Though many will hunt for it, repeatedly.

"OMG". Back up the Loomis truck--gold shipment.

"...What is very unique, was that it produced 30 Bankers to the Players 3 where those 3 streaks of Bankers clumped together. ..."

     A little Variance there. I'm not sure I've ever played a shoe with that much Variance within 35 or so consecutive hands.
Also note in the same clump P-2iar(PP) would have failed 35 consecutive tries from the last PP. that's a big gap for no PP.

Occasionally I will see a section where its maybe 19-5 , but immediately the Trailer will win 5-6iar, Lose , then Trailer wins another 5-6iar and the totals are suddenly something like 21-16. Then, mostly balanced and chops the rest of the way, and the shoe finishes within 1 SD,...etc.

After the first long B run (and certainly after the second B run of 4 or 5), I would have been on that PBP expecting a long chop or possibly a long P run. So on that final B 12iar I would have likely missed the first 2-3 Bs in that final B run.


Thx for pics/post

alrelax:

"...I know it will never happen again , never ever.  But I sure do miss the old school Baccarat rooms and the high limit rooms—ran and patronized the way they used to be, which also held the original bac tables.
..."

    I agree 100%. I started playing around early 2000 or so and the big table was already being fazed out. Mostly see the big table in vegas now. I seldom see Midi tables except Vegas/Biloxi and a couple in Black Hawk,Colorado.


"...Virtually no one dressed as the majority does today or should I say post late 90's.  Meaning no ripped jeans, no hoodies, no sweatshirts, no shorts, no ultra casual errand running clothes.  Guys had on slacks, dress shirts, Tommy Bahama style shirts, etc.  Women had on dresses, pants suit outfits, skirts and blouses, etc.    ..."

    I see that relaxed dress code as well at most places. Especially during the day weekdays. Weekend players sometimes dress a little better it seems. I encourage all of us to try and keep the standards high. When at nicer cas markets I still wear a light sport coat with a short sleeve polo, casual pants, casual leather type shoes...etc. I immediately pull the jacket off and place on chair / get comfortable.
I would say at casinos in midwest most in evenings are coming from work so often dressed a little nicer if their occupation requires better dress code. Most don't wear a sport coat but above average dress. Some of the ladies still dress classy.
Though I do see a slippage from just 10-15 years ago.

I sometimes still see better attire at Bellagios in vegas and Beau Rivage in Biloxi. Mostly at upper limit tables >=$100 it seems.

"...
But all in all, the whole atmosphere and level of camaraderie were heads and tails over what it is today..."

    I concur.



Continued Success,

Thanks for pics(&taking the time to post your real time Play-by-Play/thoughts).

*The last pic(Bottom R) Section 3 certainly had a little clustering(Gold mining opportunity).


Continued Success,

KungFuBac likes this:

"We've seen that some random walks working by a 0.75% probability of success itlr will form longer W successions than a proportional amount of L successions. (W=+1 and L=-3).
We've found out that the gap, albeit being rare to cross through, will provide us a strong statistical advantage."

Good post AsymBacGuy

Personally I find #2 easier to discern vs #1 or #3:

"2- Considering it to stop a L pattern of given lenght"



Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9, Asym, et al.

Yes we must avoid these type of casinos if at all possible. I realize some folks that are near the (Ante Casinos) may not have the time to travel to other destinations. However, I think most players would have a greater prob of winning long term if they just played fewer sessions and drove to other "Non-Ante" casino markets.

     All that needs to happen is one corp cas chain (MGM,Caesars,...etc) to place a casino in these indian-casino markets. Capitalism is almost always good for the consumer. That is why I can go into a Walmart and purchase a half gallon of premium Orange Juice for $3.50 and select from 20 different brands. Competition is good at the grocery store as well as in the casino market. Casinos gouging their patrons with an Ante is usury/criminal IMO.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

re:000 roulette

Asym: "I'd add to the list playing at double or triple (ouch) zeroes roulettes, or at baccarat betting the Tiger pair (HE= 30%) "

    I agree with you.
    There are actually a couple of the aforementioned "AnteChargingCasinos" that have a (single zero) roulette wheel along with the traditional 00. it's a well kept secret amongst the rouletters and surprisingly the casinos don't even advertise this "0" table.


Continued Success To All,

Note in the following link below:

Pg. 3 NOTE the significant drop in Hold% for Bac starting in 2004.? Any thoughts as to why the hold % dropped from approx 18%--21% from 1992--2003, then a huge drop to mostly 11-12% from 2004--2023.
* My thinking was that maybe the increase in EZ Bac tables vs the old-school "Big Table". I don't know as just thinking out loud. There has to be some major change in the game for that to occur. Maybe just variance??

Any thoughts or theories??


NevadaTablesHold%


Thanks/credit to the UNLV Center For Gaming Research

Hi AsymBacGuy.

Asym:
"...Never heard of "ante" while playing baccarat.
Actually what does that mean
?.."

A little background.

Indian(i.e., tribe, native american) casinos in the USA. They are in about 28-30 states. I would say most are in the Midwest in states like (Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma,..etc) or West coast (California, Arizona,..etc). Many of these tribes have various pacts with the respective states on how they will pay the state a % of gambling revenue on Class III games(e.g., Table games such as Bac, roulette, craps, blackjack,...etc).

This ante or "Fee" is paid by the casino after collecting from the player on each hand dealt, wheel spun, dice come out,..etc). The casino often uses euphemisms to make things seem less bad (ante instead of fee or charge or tax). A common ante is .50c for a wager up to $99, and a $1 for a wager $100--999, $2 at $999--2000, $3 > $2000. Some just charge $1 regardless if at a table min of $10 or $1000.

Some of the better managed casinos often pay this (to the state) for the player or may have "No-Ante" days which are often during the week: Sun--thurs, or Mon,Tues,Thurs, M-Fri noon,...etc. If the casino pays it for the player then the dealer tracks the wagers with lammers on each hand, wheel spin, comeout roll in craps,...etc. This is how the casino knows how much they will pay the state.

Some casinos also have rules like: All hi-limit table games (usually $25 min or $50min) are ante free every day.
Each casino can set these rules as they like. 

*So obviously the smaller player is facing a much higher obstacle than just the house edge(e.g., .50c on a $15 wager). But even if paying $1 on a $100 wager one faces an additional hurdle as these "fees" on every single wager can easily add up to >=$30--60 every session.

**In my opinion there is also an additional issue that is often over looked. That is the fact this "fee" is paid Up Front--Win or "lose".

I simply choose to play at casinos that pay the ante for the player/only play during the week when the casino doesn't charge a ante or play at hi-limit tables.

KungFuBac is most certainly anti antes.


Continued Success,

KungfuBac:
"One shoe did not have a single Panda8 or Fortune7 winner. Two 3c8 and 3c7 presented but they lost or tied so no bonus winner."

Alrelax:

"Where I play a lot, Panda 8 is not offered.  But I still pay attention to 3C8s for the player.  I cannot recall a show without any.  But as far as the F7 goes, plenty of shoes without a Single One!  Once, I came in and there were already 4 consecutive shoes without one!!!  Then I witnessed another 3 consecutive shoes without one.  On the 8th shoe at the same table finally a single F7 appeared."


Yes, on the very next shoe after the "No P8 or F7" shoe--Five 3c7 presented but two were Nonwinners (tied/defeated). Around hand 60ish three out of four consecutive outcomes were F7 Bonus winners.
    I didn't have any of the F7s as I probably only wagered a total of four or five  f7 wagers in the five-shoes-from-hell.


Continued Success,

Session From Hell        

I just returned from a multi-night Bac excursion. Most days and sessions were unremarkable. The typical up/down and then I would win 3-4 pressed bets in a row/ finish shoe on an uptick and lock in a nice profit,...etc. No big-win shoes for the whole trip. NADA.

However, I played one session that included five full shoes from start to finish. This was the session from Hell.LOL.
Different tables but same casino. My hit rate across all five shoes: 22W 33L. That is correct. Not even 50%. I can't ever remember having such a weak hit rate across five shoes(maybe a really bad shoe or two sometimes). The worst part: I was never above the 50% hit rate. Making it worse was the fact I couldnt seem to win >=4 iar consecutive winners(not necessarily same consec events).

I was drawn down (-2500--4400) for most of the session. Near midnight I finally put four consec Ws together and recouped to only being down (-1830) for the session. I departed and went to bed. This was an Indian casino in Midwest,USA that charges an Ante from Thursday 1159pm---Sunday 1159pm. I refuse to pay an ante as IMO its usury. So I do not play here on weekends.

*One shoe did not have a single Panda8 or Fortune7 winner. Two 3c8 and 3c7 presented but they lost or tied so no bonus winner.

**One shoe did not have a 3iar(iar:In A Row) same-side winner until the latter part of shoe(approx hand 65--70 and then only one of each (PPP and a couple hands later a BBB). This shoe had several 5 individual chop streaks(pbpbp ,...etc). I actually caught both of these "third" winners. I recalled some of my conversations with forum alum AsymBacGuy and the likelihood for a shoe to finish without at least one 3iar same-side winner. I have only had one shoe in my life that did not show a PPP and or a BBB.



More later,

Good to see the site back on line.

I agree with AsymBacGuy et al:

"...I still have to read a lot of posts made in the past by people who I'd consider among the best gambling scholars, you first.

Yep, we do not need a forum with magic systems, garbage sellers or threads soaked by fights and verbal abuse...."

This is the only Bac site I have ever joined. So I certainly missed it while it was down for maintenance.
    During the past couple weeks I searched for a decent Bac site that seemed to have veteran players(that actually played) and not just posters, system sellers, ...etc. I did not find any Bac sites that seemed satisfactory. I finally found a roulette site and a Sports Betting site with some worthwhile posts to read. The Sports-Betting site seemed to have some serious and full-time professional gamers(No real Bac players/posts though). The roulette site had some good posts from the past but only a handful of posts since 2022. However, roulette isn't my game of choice.

Bottom line: This site has an abundance of past/present posts for the serious Bac player /gamer. Hopefully some of the lurkers will join or signin more often. Maybe take a couple minutes and post a note, trip report, comment, ones local casino conditions, tell us where you play(B&M, online),ask questions, your biggest win, ...etc.



Continued Success To All,

Hi ADulay
They look identical IMO.




Continued Success,