Jimske,

Great Job on the 8 $100 units!

I don't like to think about 'what ifs'. I figure I have the same chance of getting the exact same results in a different shoe 2 weeks from now. Last night after I colored, I intentionally walked passed the table and thought I would bet the 3u I had in chips in my pocket and see how far that would get me. Changed my mind last second. I'd rather hold on to them a few days and bet them next time, the chances are the same.

It's not about the money at my unit size. $5 at bac, $6 at a craps table. It's about the conflict of me vs me, emotional and psychological control, and then the challenge of me vs random, surviving negative variance and coming out ahead or even.  I'll have to be net positive and start removing money from the casino regularly before I enter the next stage, which is the casino vs me.

Ah, your right. My session BR is risking less than what I've recently won. I need to keep that perspective. Thanks.

Quote from: jsb02009 on June 27, 2015, 01:07:04 PM
HucBack, I have played your way with decent results.  But I use a 5 step POSITIVE progression then bet 1000 after...100-200-400-800-1600----1000-1000..etc.....Some important points

1. I bet on player to streak
2. You need to understand that you won't win every shoe but you can win everyday.  You need to bring at least a 200 unit bankroll because I have lost up to 23 units in one very choppy shoes that didn't have a streak over 3. That is ok, choppy shoes with no 5 in a row players is pretty rare.  I would guess probably around 1 in 6 or 7.
3. This method is all about positioning, for example when you first get to the casino.  Once you win your 5 step progression, get up and leave go on to a new shoe...Once I'm up 40 units (ie meaning you won around 2 positive progressions) then if in my new shoe I won my 5 step I will stay
4. As far as results go, I have been playing various baccarat methods for years.  This one has given me the best results.  It is not foolproof.  You will have a few small losses ie 20-30 units but I have had shoes that had alot of repeats where I have won over 10,000.  I have been playing this way the last 6 months and am up-44000 dollars....I have thought about increasing my progression unit size to 300-600-1200-2400-4800-2000-2000--etc
5. One final note, your mindset is correct.  Why not sacrifice small losses for big wins.  I think a 7 or 9 step progression is too risky.  You need to have enough self control to stick with this method even if you have a couple of choppy shoes.  For example, yesterday my day started with too choppy shoes in which no streak went over 3.  After those 2 shoes I was down 38 units (ie 3800 dollars). The very next shoe I had 8 players in a row  and 6 players in a row.  I made around 8000.  around 4000 for the day. I'm not saying this method is fool proof or a holy grail, but it has been working for me so far, lets see if it continues.

Very interesting, thanks for posting a reply. I hope this continues to work well for you.

I like how you reduce your bet after 5 wins and then flat bet the rest of the run out with a large bet. And yes, 7 or 8 steps is probably too many.

So, you bet every hand waiting for a player streak? Or do you wait for 1 player and then start your progression?

Thanks

Quote from: Big EZ on June 27, 2015, 04:49:03 PM
Controlling your LIAR is exactly what controlling variance means.

No. It is not. Above Sputnik has a series of bets posted where he has limited LIAR to no more than 7. And he still lost 33 bets out of 48. A win rate of only 31%. Illustrating that Variance is not under control.

It is true that a LIAR limited to the extreme of only 2 could at most produce WLLWLLWLL. Imposing a minimum win rate of 33% but it is still capable of acquiring the virtual limit of standard deviation. The control of LIAR is nothing more than a speed limit on variance. A strong influence, but not exactly control.

I also don't consider a limit of 10 to be much of a limit. Even 7 didn't do Sputnik any good. I can post 112 consecutive B&M decisions (one full shoe and a partial of the following shoe) and the bet selection I ran against them that triggered 67 bets and went 25 wins and 42 losses and LIAR never exceeded 4.

Quote from: Jimske on June 27, 2015, 02:28:56 PM
This thread quickly turned into a discussion of progressions.  Why?

Fork me, I dunno. I sure plunged headlong right into one though. Completely off topic. My fault. Feel free to delete all that nonsense I wrote.

Apologies for that. It was unintentional.

Quote from: Sputnik on June 26, 2015, 09:56:13 AM
Hello i don't understand why you would use does strings - does it mean i only have to win back half my bets when i am at secound level or do i have to win with exact 50% or more.
My TRNG march have won over 50.000 placed bets flat betting and i still get serios fluctation and variance that destroy that kind of progression.

For example this session - was i only unlucky or how ofthen do you bust even if you have strike ratio around 53% and above.
And i don't understand what is the Point haveing a string of 9 when you move up next level after 5 or less.

I use this strings...

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2
4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6 6

Sputnik,

I'm in agreement with you. Even with a 52% hit rate variance can still take deep plunge against you. What you provided is an excellent example. 15 wins and 33 losses isn't anywhere near a 52% win rate. But it is a very realistic expectation after Jimske's latest session of +17u flat betting inside of 40 bets. Which must be very close to 28 wins and 11 losses.

The purpose of a mini series of 11 bets was an attempt to be very conservative, hopefully capturing his most extreme LIAR of 10 inside of just 1 series. Winning 6 and losing 5 is a profit of 1u. No need to increase unit size here. Losing 6 or more in any series of 11 produces a loss. The progression to 2u bets is an attempt to milk larger profits with a win rate of 52%. Having an expectation of soon winning more than losing. Once you start betting larger units in the mini series, it isn't completely necessary to play each series out to 11 bets. Draw down needs to be monitored and if a WWWWWL betting sequence appears at the beginning of any series it should have performed a recoup with profit. Or perhaps reduced the draw down significantly enough to forgo completing the series out to 11 bets and start a new series at a smaller unit value.

However controlling LIAR isn't exactly controlling variance. So it is a risk as you have demonstrated. Progressions are for those of us with a win rate below 50%. An attempt to deploy a clever MM scheme to take advantage of the W/L string configuration to generate profit that overcomes all the losses.


Asym states that an increase win rate above 50% produces more consecutive win sequences than WLWL sequences. Or even consecutive loss sequences. This could point to the use of a MM with a parlay characteristic such as Mongoose. However, imo, variance is still a problem.

I still think it would be better to adhere more to a flat bet method. And after some more thought on the matter think the following to be an even more conservative approach.

Simply bet 1u until you have accrued 10 losses. For each loss record a 1 on a piece of paper. If you won more than you lost, pocket the profit a start over flat betting one unit for another 10 losses.

If you have lost more than you won, then continue making 1u bets for a total of 10 wins, crossing off those 1's as you do. For each loss record a 2 on a piece of paper. You may have fifteen or even twenty 2's recorded before winning those ten 1u bets. Then proceed to bet 2u until all of those 2's are marked off and record a 3 for each lost bet. Rinse and repeat.

This is a long drawn out MM that takes advantage of a win rate greater than 50% and protects you from wide swings of variance more than any other method can aside from straight up flat betting 1u for life.

+ 28u tonight. And the stress of winning is really starting to build. It hasn't been so poignant before as it is now.

Usually, the stress is pretty high walking in Even, knowing that if you bust a session BR you are digging a deeper hole from the very first unit. You try to be careful and conservative protecting wins and going home with some sort of profit. So the next session that stress is alleviated a bit. If I bust this session BR I don't dig a hole the entire size of my buy in. And then eventually I'm ahead one full session BR and I'm not stress free, but a great deal more relaxed. Here, if I win a bit, I'm actually happy and very near stress free. Knowing that I'm now working on recovering the loss of the previous session BR. ( I'm down overall for my career, and have those lost units separated into session BR's I'm trying to recover 1 at a time. Milestones you might say, positive psychological reinforcement.)

Now though, I feel like I keep waiting for a loss. I can feel weight of it pressing down on me. Second guessing my bet selection. I've recouped all of this year's draw down and have started working on my lifetime draw down. I feel like I should chip up, double my unit size since I've nearly won two session BR's recently and take advantage of a faster recovery. But I cannot shake the feeling that as soon as I do I'll lose all that I've gained so far.

So the stress mounts, buying in for the same amount, making the same size bets. Scratching out small gains, knowing I'll have to win six more sessions before I'm comfortable chipping up. So if I do lose at that exact moment, I'll still have two normal size BR's to start this all over again. 

Anyone else feel pressure mounting from consecutive winning sessions? How do you deal with it?

Tonight's shoe was an easy winner for me, which only adds to the impending doom of guessing it wrong next time. It was however finally a shoe Banker was leading when I got there. Betting for B runs and P singles again, I'm conflicted cause I don't like to bet the strong side.

B
P
B
PP
BB
P
B
P
BBBBBBBB
PPP
B
PP
B
PPP  I showed up here.
B   My first bet for B to repeat and I lose 3u
P 
BBBB
P
BBB
P
B
PPP
BBBBBBBB   
P

I rode that 8 Banker streak and colored up when it was over, fearful of giving back what I had gained.

AsymBacGuy,

Good eye for detail. There should have been a single B in between those two P streaks you highlighted. Typo on my part.

I fixed it.

This is like the 3rd or 4th time out of 5 trips I've walked up on a shoe with Player winning by 10 or more. This shoe was 1/3 complete before I got there. Player 44 to Banker 35.

P
B
PPPPPPP 7P I wasn't around for, saved me a 5u bet as I would have bet it went to 8
B
PPPPP
B
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP
B
PP
B
PPP
BB
P
BB
PP
BBBB
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
BBBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP
BBBBBB
PPPPP

I like to bet P to avoid commission loss, but bet exactly opposite of last week thinking that surely I'd run into a B dom shoe. My bet was for P to single and for B to repeat.

+24u by decision 34 of the following shoe which was once again led by P 20 and B 14

With LIAR limited to 10 or less your best option would be to play a mini series. Similar to GR8's progression.

A series of 9 or 11.

11111111111   If you lose 6 or more double your unit size to 2 and
22222222222   monitor your draw down, always play for a profit before you reset to 1u bets.
33333333333   Be confident in your bet selection, you can't afford to lose 2u and win 1u
44444444444   You will need a bank roll larger than 20u.
55555555555   You will have to decide what limits you put on this MM.


Flat betting with 52% hit rate or greater doesn't ever Bust. Once you enter into a progression, you will have to set its parameters. Theoretically, you should be able to continue in this progression or one a bit more aggressive and never blow through your bankroll with liar limited to 10 and a win rate above 50%.

I would also monitor your recent strike rate. Past 50 bets or so. I know you recently went +17u flat betting inside of 40 bets. I would expect that not to continue and start the progression with 1/2u bets. Or be prepared for a deep draw down and have the confidence to bet through it to profit.

I'm not talking about playing an 8 step negative progression.

I'm talking about playing an 8 step positive progression. Against the phantom Marty player. Call it reverse logic for lack of a better term.

Anyone engaged in a 8 step negative Marty is headed towards a 255u bust. 8 steps is likely to be successful for some time. Let's say 175u before he busts out. Netting an 80u loss. The positive bettor would have lost 175u but won 255u. Netting 80u profit.

The fallacy of my thinking toward a negative Marty player is that he has missed out on several wins before starting the Marty. Nobody says "hey look I just saw 8 Banker, I bet Banker won't streak to 8 again before I win X number of units" No. He says " I don't see 8 Banker very often, I'm going to Marty against it and make a killing." It isn't really Murphy's Law that rears its head, but the Law of Averages.

In defense of the negative Marty player, his units won and lost come out exactly even minus the house edge on his action. Pick a simple 124 and bet it over and over and over again and you will see sometimes you get ahead as much as 21u or behind as much as 21u but it continues to pass back and forth over 0. Because of the house edge it does eventually lose some ground, but it doesn't tank to - 70u immediately. Nor does it always stay negative.

Two problems with the marty bettor is that he doesn't stick with it, and that he starts after missing out on several wins.

So, as a positive progression. It makes sense (though still a gamble) to see 9 Player, and wait out 75 or 100 virtual losses and then start playing FLD on Player for 9P. At about the same time some phantom bettor would decide to play a negative marty, destined to bust before he breaks even.

Jimske,

Not betting against a pattern, but for a pattern. And your right. I do still have to avoid B and its commission though. Waiting for six P and betting positively until I hit the table max around 16 P should be the same as betting P hitting the 2hole 9 times in a row. The latter of which shouldn't be more likely, but it would give me more opportunities to bet.

I'll have to think about that too. Right now I've got a picture in my head of a I think 1 million decisions showing the distributions of P and B singles and repeats. And once you get into lengths greater than 10 the distributions are not equal. I recall P's longest repeat to 19 or 20, did not have enough repeats of 14 15 16 17 or 18 to warrant it's appearance. Unlike all of the repeats of 10 or less which were dead on their expected values.

I'm just adhering to a fallacy that if you are going to bust your 128u negative marty before you make 128u with it, why not bet positively for 128u until it wins, netting the difference of what the phantom marty user lost.

It is commonly used as an example that a 7 or 9 step negative marty is doomed. A long harrowing journey trying to win one unit at a time, avoiding commission losses, 250 to 500 times before the impending bust. Almost always occurring well before you win enough to cover a bust that size. And if you do manage to surpass your bust limits. It's another arduous journey of 1u profits until that bust comes.

What I ponder is the opposite. It seems to me, and I'm sure many will agree that when you do bust your 9 step marty it won't be to a streak of exact length. It will probably be a longer streak. This imo is especially true once you get into streak lengths in the teens. Streaks of 4,5,6 and even 7,8,9,10 seem to occur with the necessary frequency.

But the longer streaks are a bit more random. That is to say, you will probably not see two streaks of 12 before you see 1 streak of 13, or two streaks of 13 before one streak of 14. You are more likely to get some odd streak of 15 or 17 before completely filling in the gaps of all the 14,13,12,11 streak distributions. Probably not see a single one of several of those at all until after a longer streak.

I ponder entering a very long positive progression on P to avoid commission. Thinking that I will hit it early, working with Murphy's law against the marty bet. Or even just keep at it until I overcome my draw down. It would take nerves of steel tho.

Quote from: gr8player on June 20, 2015, 01:44:13 PM
Hello, HBS.

Please forgive the tardy response, but I was in AC the past three days.

Please know that my response to your quote was not a shot at you in any way; a response, nothing more, nothing less.  I wouldn't want you to take it as personally as you obviously had, but I do apologize if you had.  Sorry.

Regarding your "95% of my play is the 1 and 2 hole" comment.....great job!  IMHO, the player that hasn't a valid "answer" for the 1, 2 and 3 holes on their scorecards is the player that will be left in the dark.

In due time I will further expound on my personal opinions regarding some valid points that might assist the player that wishes to improve on their approach to those first three lines.  My approach, in fact, my play, often involves alot of "stopping and starting", awaiting certain traits/trends to appear, and, of course, getting onto them at the earliest opportunity for maximum profitability.

Stay well.

GR8,

I hope your trip to AC went well. This is number 4 I think.

Yeah, I can be a little thin skinned at times, and perhaps react a bit strongly. Sorry for that little bite.

Plenty of action in the 1 and 2 hole in my opinion. I look forward to what you may have to offer regarding those bet selections. It may clean up my play a bit.

I'm really leery of betting against a streak. Even a small one. Pitboss is a popular method, but I usually will only make just one bet for a streak of two to stay a two and I'm done 'till the next double. As for getting on the streak. Call me crazy, but I wait for a streak of 7 and then make a multiple unit bet that it goes to 8, back off a unit or two and then ride the rest of it knowing one day it will be the MONSTER streak.

Not often I see a streak of 7. So I don't make the bet often. I'm not drowning in lost units to an over abundance of 7 streaks. 

Thanks GR8. I appreciate the kind words. I don't know what happened. It's like this shoe came at me sideways, it seems harmless enough.

Discipline and patience are key. You say this all the time, and I vehemently agree. I usually have better composure than that. 11u bet was a bad idea, or maybe it wasn't. Seems like a strong bet with so many B doubles never going to 3 or beyond. Streak of 11 was not just lucky for so many consecutive wins toward a recoup. It is also an easy bet to make. No second guessing, just ride the run.

I wasn't intoxicated. I felt 100% prepared. For me, I'll take it as a warning. That there may be some unknown subtle force or influence that can take you off your game without you noticing it. Coulda just been nothing more than an off day mentally. You know, like those days you keep dropping stuff for no reason, or you spill your drink in the kitchen just to sit down at dinner and knock it over again.

Or maybe my head isn't bolted down securely?

I knew I was picking what many would consider a bad bet selection. But I prepared myself to bet with confidence, to be a bit more aggressive knowing that my BS would eventually come around. I was ready to make some much larger than normal bets because I was going to focus on one particular bet ONLY. And that bet was for a B single. All of my bets would have been on Player avoiding commission loss for increased bet sizes as I went deeper into my Lab. I was ready.

I even recorded the shoe by hand, which I haven't done in a while because of the electronic display. First thing I did was make some bets at the end of the first shoe I bought in toward the end of. Dropped 4u without any reason, just random bets. Impatient for some action? not a good sign. Second thing I did was at the beginning of the next shoe, I still didn't set up my Lab string. Just started betting. And somehow decided to pick up a second BS. That every Player doubled. Another selection many would consider bad, but it was in line we me betting P only. After about 12 decisions I finally reversed engineered my lab string. Two of em, one for each BS. In about another 9 decisions I open up a third lab string on Banker streaking passed 2.

In hindsight I'm realizing I was working three bet selections with only ONE bankroll. This quickly turned ugly for me. Eventually, I abandoned use of the lab strings and started betting random amounts of units. My composure is gone, I'm in a tailspin here. I'm thinking about re buying in when I still have over half of my buy in left! I'm convinced I'm going to have a huge draw down even thought at the time I wasn't aware why. ( 3 simultaneous bets selections and 1 bank roll )

I did have a 55u draw down, but amazingly pulled out of it with 24u profit. Here are what I have recorded for the three lab strings.

B singles.   1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 4 4  made some 5u bets I lost and stopped recording wins and losses and bet randomly.

P doubles.   1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 2 4 4 This is a mess, I did not execute this lab even remotely like it is supposed to be.

B triples.     1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2  I was careless using this one too and eventually made and 11u bet that was the beginning of my over all recovery.

Here's the shoe I'm sure everyone will say "duh" I would have killed it. Like I said, my head was not in the game.

B
P
BB
PPPP
BB
P
B
PP
B
PPPP
BB
P
BB
PP
BB
P
BBB
P
BB
P
BB
PP
B
PP
BBBBBBBBBBB  out of nowhere 11B
P
B
PP
B
PPPP
B
PP I colored up and went to the cage
B
P
end of what I saw. Shoe nearly finished.

The Streak of 11B saved me. 11u bet on 3B, and stayed on the run with random bets of 3 to 6 units. The following occurrences of B singling and P doubling put me over the top and I fled the scene.