Hi sputnik and beat the wheel,

To let you know:

In 64 spins the ideal expectation of the doublesides of all 3 EC's (6 EC's) forming a series of 2 ONLY is 24

In 64 spins the ideal expectation of the doublesides of all 3 EC's (6 EC's) forming a series of MORE THAN 2 is 24 too.

In 64 spins then the expectation for unique SINGLES that cannot form part of any of above EC series is therefore: 16.

So in 64 spins the expectation betting ONCE after series of 2 to form 3 - or betting ONCE on the OPPOSITE after a series of 2 is:

Win/Loss RATIO is: 24w / 40L

24 wins out of 64 spins expressed as a percentage = 37.5%

(For block of 128 spins - just double the w/l ratio eg: 48w / 80L; percentage is same for 128 spins = 37.5%)

I just ran 64 random numbers into RX and these are the stats for the 6 EC's:


LOW - 4 hits of series of 2; 5 hits of series of more than 2

HIGH - 3 hits of series of 2; 4 hits of series of more than 2

TOTAL SERIES ON HIGH/LOW IN 64 spins = 16 (7 series of 2; 9 series of more than 2)
16 hits total series for both sides of ONE EC is average %expectation of 16 hits
================================================

RED - 1 hit on series of 2; 6 hits of series of more than 2

BLACK - 5 hits on series of 2; 1 hit on series of more than 2

TOTAL SERIES ON RED BLACK IN 64 spins = 13 (6 series of 2; 7 series of more than 2)
13 hits total series for both sides of ONE EC is slightly under avg %expectation of 16 hits
================================================

ODD - 6 hits on series of 2; 2 hits on series of more than 2

EVEN - 5 hits on series of 2; 2 hits on series of more than 2

TOTAL SERIES ON ODD/EVEN IN 64 spins = 15 (11 series of 2; 4 series of more than 2)
15 hits total series for both sides of ONE EC is just under avg %expectation of 16 hits.


So if you're only going to bet AGAINST a series of 2 forming a series of 3 for ONE BET ONLY you get:

LOW/HIGH=7 hits
RED/BLACK=6 hits
ODD/EVEN=11 hits

Add 'em up and you get - surprise! 24 hits of series of 2 only in 64 spins!! (ideal/avg expectation)


That's 37.5%

These expectations are usually STABLE.

Now if you're only betting ONCE only on series of 2 to become three you get:

LOW/HIGH =9 hits
RED/BLACK =7 hits
ODD/EVEN=4 hits

Add 'em up and you get 22 hits of series of 3 or more! (not quite ideal - but nothing perfect!)

That's 34.375%

Can you see the math symmetry in this?

So you see we can EXPECT 24 hits on each series (series of 2 or 2+) in the frame span of 64 spins!

There will usually be about 16 unique singles in the 64 spins which cannot be made into a series of any of the EC's.
And usually about 48 total series.

24 (series of 2) + 24(series of more than 2) + 16(unique singles) = 64 spins

When there is significantly LESS THAN 24 series in a set of 64 spins then you have a VARIANCE to capitalize on

A.

Quote from: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on February 01, 2016, 03:06:24 PM
Atlantis,
Sputnik means,

Dozen1 mean single.
dz2 mean series of 2.
dz3 mean series of 3, and more.

Thus B,P,B MEAN dozen1,dz1,dz1.

bb,pp,bb mean dz2,dz2,dz2.

bbb,pppp,bbb,ppppppp mean dz3.dz3,dz3,dz3.

pbp,ppbb,ppppbbbppppp mean 111,22,333.

Ah! I see.
Thanks BTW/PA for helping me to understand it! 

A.

eh??? I do not understand, Sputnik.

You talk about dozens and your video shows betting R and B!!!

Bit perplexed 

A.

Quote from: georgebac on July 22, 2015, 01:47:01 PM
where do u get the wins and loses from. do u write player and banker before the shoe starts. im not understanding how u getting the wins and loses. thank you

Hi georgebac,

I will try and explain again - but it's quite simple really.

Record (P)layer and (B)anker results in horizontal lines of 3 results in a matrix grid...

PPP
BBP
PBP

So the first three results as they happened from the start of the shoe was P P P, then the next three outcomes were B B P which are written below the first set of results. Finally to complete the start tracking grid of 9 results it happened to be: P B P.

From now on it is simply a matter to continue to record the outcomes as they occur underneath those first 3 lines (or "trios")

Also, after the initial nine tracking results, you also start to compile the W/L registry for each of the results that happen thereafter.

To decide whether to put W or L
==========================
If the dominant result of the LAST 3 VERTICAL results in a column wins mark a W; however if the dominant of the LAST 3 VERTICAL results in that column loses then record it as an L.
When you have recorded W-L - it is time to bet on the dominant of the last three outcomes of the very next column!

For example:

PPP
BBP
PBP   start grid of 9 consecutive results
PP    W-L-

In column 1 "P" is winning 2 out of 3 and a P result occurred underneath so that is marked as W.

In column 2 Banker is the dominant with 2 out of 3 - and the next latest result was a (P)layer result so that one is recorded as an L because the dominant did not win.

You only bet ONCE after EACH W-L trigger.

So in the above case you would make a bet on the dominant of column 3 which is P because that side leads with 3/3 hits.

If Player wins next hand you have:
PPP
BBP
PBP   start grid of 9 consecutive results
PPP    W-L-W            WON   +1

Alternatively, if Banker were to win the hand you have:
PPP
BBP
PBP   start grid of 9 consecutive results
PPB    W-L-L             LOST   -1

Win or Lose you then wait for the next bet signal - which is when you next see any W followed by a L.
(T)ies are ignored and the stake is rebet on the next round.

A.

Quote from: jsintl on July 22, 2015, 02:09:19 AM
How long you have been playing this method and are you up overall?

Hi jsntl,

To be clear, this is something I rediscovered in the last few days - an old system of mine I'd forgotten about, filed away in an old roulette folder...
I figured it could be better suited to game of baccarat so decided to share on this forum.
As such I'm afraid I don't have any large history of results/stats etc. I can give to you at this point.
I'm not making any grandiose claims for it either nor do I say it will always work for everyone all of the time. Time and future tests will show. It *seems* to do a fairly decent job against random compared to some others I tried. You're not betting all the time. Is a mild progression and I play for low stakes online.

A.

Quote from: tdx on July 22, 2015, 12:18:46 AM
Might be an error on your first post in this thread at top of this page.

On the eighth line down you have PPB LWL and on the ninth line down you have BBP WLL.

So I think the mistake is on the 9th Line since you would have won the first bet and lost the 3rd bet on the 9th line for a zero profit or loss on that line but you show a 1 unit loss.

I think you forgot the first winning bet on the 9th line.

Hi tdx - nicely spotted; you're right. I seem to make a mistake.      

Here I show how I would have played your results:

Start cycle = 1-1-2. *=current highest profit

PBB
BPB
PBB              9 result start grid             +0*
PPB w-l-w       w1                                +1*
BPP l-w-l         w1                                +2*
BBB l-l-w         L1                                +1
PPP l-w-l         w1                                +2*
PBB l-l-l           L1                                +1
BBP l-w-l
PPP w-l-w        w1;w1                          +3*
PBP w-w-w
BBP l-w-w        w1                               +4* - - stop here??
BBP l-w-w        w1                               +5*
BPP w-l-w        w1                                +6*
BPP w-l-w        w1                               +7*
BPP w-w-w
PBB l-l-l            L1                               +6
BBB w-l-l          L1                               +5
PBP  l-w-l
PPP  w-l-l         w2;L1                           +6
B      l-----         STOP

Regards,
A.

Hi WorldBaccaratKing,

PBP
PBB
PPB   Start Cycle = 1-1-2
PPP   WLL        -1  L1        Reminder: bet only once after a WL formation
BPP   LWL                        WL trigger
BPB   LWL       -2   L1       New WL trigger... (next bet =2u)
BBP  WLW        +0 W2; +1 W1

Start off at first by recording W and L outcomes VIRTUALLY. In other words if a dominant of the last 3 vertical results in that column wins mark a W; however if the dominant of the last 3 vertical results in that column loses then record it as an L.
When you get a virtual WL - it is time to bet on the dominant of the last three outcomes of the very next column!

Bet ONCE only after EACH virtual WL signal - this can also mean a bet on the first column of the next line as in the example you quoted where I have marked it in bold ; the actual placed bet results are marked in red

L1
L1
W2   restart cycle
W1

= +1 on the above results.

Remember the bet, when indicated after a "WL", is on the dominant result of the LAST 3 VERTICAL RESULTS only of the next COLUMN waiting to be recorded/updated.

eg:
B
B
B
bet for B

P
B
P
bet for P

B
P
P
B
bet for P

P
P
B
B
P
bet for B

Use last 3 results in appropriate column to determine the bet. Bet ONCE ONLY after a trigger.

Hope this explains

A.
PS. Winning for me today. 4 sessions = +19.70u profit.

Hi tdx,

I play for abt 3 to 5u profit and stop.
Also if I go to -7 or -8 I may stop too - depending on how I feel things are going.
I track the last 9 results into the grid before starting recording the W/L's for the trigger. I stop and retrack the new 9 results on a new shoe or reshuffle before any continuation.
I'm in UK and play live dealer online (small stakes)

A.

Hello All,

Adapted from a similar roulette system:

Betting the side of the EC that predominates the most in the last 3 vertical results of a matrix grid column ONCE ONLY **but only after a "WL" result appears**

Playing on BACCARAT ONLY

Using the 3-bet cyclic unit progressions:
1-1-2
1-2-2
2-2-2
2-2-3
2-3-3
3-3-3......etc.

If all 3 bets in a cycle are lost move up to next bet cycle.

If a win occurs in a cycle then restart from the beginning of that cycle progression line --- UNLESS level or ahead OVERALL in which case restart from default cycle 1 (1-1-2)

Record (P)layer and (B)anker results in horizontal lines of 3 results in a matrix grid...

PBP
PBB
PPB             Start Cycle = 1-1-2
PPP  WLL     -1  L1   Reminder: bet only once after a WL formation
BPP   LWL     
BPB   LWL     -2 L1
BBP  WLW    +0 W2; +1 W1
PPB   LWL    +2 W1
BBP   WLL    +1 L1
BPP   WLW   +2 W1
PPB   LWL     +3 W1
PBP   LLW     +2 L1
BPB   LWL     +3 W1
PBB   WLW    +4 W1 ; +5 W1
PPP   WLL     +4 L1
PPP   WWL
PBB    WLL     +4 W1 
BBB     LLL     
PBP    WWL   
BPB    LLW      +3 L1
PPB    LLW      +2 L1
BPP    LWL      +4 W2
PBP    LLL       +3 L1
BPB    LWL       
PBB    LLL        +2 L1
PPB    WLW     +4 W2
BPP    LWL      +5 W1
PPP    WWL    +6 W1
PBP     WLW    +7 W1 ; +8 W1
PPP    WWW
BBB     LLL       +7 L1
PBB     WWL
PPP     WLL      +8 W1 ; +7 L1
PBB     WWW
PBB     WWW
PBP     WWL
PBB      WWW  +8 W1
BBP      LWL      +9 W1
PPB      WLW     +10 W1; +11 W1
BBP      LWL      +12 W1
PPP     LWW      +11 L1
BPP     LWW      +12 W1
PPP     LWW      +13  W1
PPB     WWL
PBB     WLL       +14 W1; +13 L1
BPB     LWW     
BBP     LLL         +12 L1
PPB     LLW       
BBP     WLL        +10 L2 (up to 1-2-2 series for next bet)
BPB     WLL        +9 L1
BPP     WWL
PPP     LWW       +7 L2
BPP     WWW
PPP     LWW       +9 W2
PPB     WWL
PBP     WLW       +10 W1  ; +11 W1
BBP      LLW        +10 L1
PPP     WLW       +12 W2
PPP     WLW       +13 W1
BPP     LWW       +14 W1 (down to 1-1-2 series)
BBP     LLW         +13 L1
PPB     LWL         +14 W1
PBP     LLW         +13 L1
BBP     LWW        +14 W1
BPP     LLW         +13 L1
BBP     WWW
BPB     WLL         +12 L1
PPB     LWL
BPP     WWL        +14 W2
PPP     LWL          +13 L1
PPP     WWW       +14 W1
PPB     WWL
PBB     WLL           +15 W1; +14 L1
PBP     WLL           +13 L1
PBB     WWW
BBB     LWW          +15 W2
PBP    WWL
PBP    W *STOP*    +16 W1

+16 profit (less %commissions for B wins)
232 results
Highest bet=2

Atlantis.

Line 13-18 and Line 31-36 are the only 2 lines that don't contain any RED ODD or BLACK EVEN numbers at all.

So a bet on the other 4 lines (in effect a double dozen bet) covers them all.

Bet those 4 each spin with mild up/down progression, maybe?

A.

This is similar to one of Silverthorne's baccarat strategies. power baccarat, I think..?
I have tried it and it works sometimes and fails at other times.
No obvious advantage as far as I can see.
A.

Quote from: warrior on September 09, 2014, 11:07:49 PM
This method is a grind but it works ,while waiting for the system to lose 3 in a row I reversed it and when 3 wins in a row came I would bet the same instead of the opposite.and when the 3 Ls would appear I would do the opposite I think you would get more betting opportunity in .and if there would be an idea for when you get 3 chops ,this would be good but I don't have one for this. What do you think Sputnik ?

This is how it looks like playing Sputnik's same outcomes with 1-2-2 MM and playing the opposite way (after 3 discrete "chops")

1
2 L
2 w
1 L
1 w
1 w
1 w
1 w
1 w
2 L
1 L
2 L  - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

1
2 L
1 L
1 w             -1

1 w
2 L
2 w
1 L
1 w
1 w
2 L
1 L
2 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

2
2 w              +0
1 L
2 L
1 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

1
1 w             +1
1 w
2 L
1 L
1 w
2 L
2 w
1 L
2 L
1 L - 3 losers  - bet for same after next result

2
1 L
2 L
2 w             +0
2 w
1 L
1 w
2 L
2 w
1 L
2 L
2 w
2 w
2 w
2 w
1 L
1 w
2 L
2 w
1 L
2 L
1 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

2
1 L
2 L
2 w              -1
2 w
1 L
1 w
2 L
2 w
1 L
2 L
1 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

1
1 W             +0
2 L
1 L
2 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

2
2 w              +1
2 w
1 L
1 w
1 w
1 w
2 L
1 L
2 L - 3 losers - bet for same after next result

2
1 L
2 L
2 w             +0
1 L
1 w
2 L
2 w
2 w
2 w
2 w
1 L
1 w
2 L
1 L
1 w
1 w
1 w
2 L
2 w

Result = +0

A.

I found this simple progression:

Quote
If I may say so straight upfront, even at the risk of apparent conceit, I consider my "Gr8Player's Progression" to be the absolute best and most efficient negative progression that I've ever seen. And, that's exactly what I had in mind when I designed it: efficiency. It's both mild enough to allow for your "variance" to correct itself, yet raises your unit sizes just enough for efficient recouping.

It's based upon a use of "7-series". Can't use my progression with 3, 5, or even 9; for the 7 works best. That's what the professional sports leagues use, the 7-game series. And it seems to work best here, as well. Seven seems "just right" to ascertain exactly "who's getting the best (or worst) of it", before one needs to make a bet-sizing "adjustments".

(Sidenote: I currently do not utilize this progression, but that's should not be viewed as anything against this MM method, as much as it is a reflection of just how far my Baccarat game/trending has come; I no longer feel the need for any "drawn out" negative progression for MY play.)

Onto the progression:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Starting at the 1-unit level (or, as I call it "1-ville"..."ville" because that's where you want to "live", in 1-ville, for we don't like to live in 3-, 4- or 5-ville) you remain there unless you lose by more than a -1. In other words, obviously any "plus" after the 7 bets and you remain; if you were to lose the series at 4 losses to 3 wins, so a -1, stay at the same level. If, however, you lose 5 and win only 2 (for a -3) or lose 6 and win only 1 (for a -5) or lose all 7 (for a -7), you move up to level 2.

Now, say you're at a -3 for the first level, and you move up to level 2, as soon as you are at a +2 in level two, you end that series and return to level one. For example:

-1 +1 -1 -1 +1 -1 -1 = -3 on to level 2:

+2 -2 +2 +2 = +4 now you're at a +1 for the group (-3 +4 = +1), go back to level 1 immediately.

You are ALWAYS seeking to return to "1-ville". I did not design this progression as an excuse to raise my bets; on the contrary, I designed it for it's EFFICIENCY in recouping and relative "mildness". So lower those bets as quickly as you can.

For selection method I like to bet repeat of last winning decision until 3 consecutive losses... After which I play opposite of last winning decision until 2 straight losses... then switch back to repeat again etc.. etc..

A.

That's a nice idea. I like it too.
A.

Here is an attached test1.txt file with a modified rule:

Play it as a 1-1 bet instead of 1-2

Only play second stage of bet at 2u *if 3 or more wins in a row gained at stage 1 (betting chosen color) before a loss happens*

A.

PS.

Another bet selection for an EVENS flatbet stake system would be to follow the CHOP and/or bet that a STREAK of 2 will end.

For example:

R,B - bet for chop to continue eg: R

B, B - bet for streak to end eg: R

If  a sequence of 3 consecutive colours occurs eg: B, B, B - no bet until change of colour occurs where you will then bet on the CHOP ie. B in this instance.