Quote from: Patience777 on May 02, 2017, 11:31:31 PM
I have already told you guys how to beat the game of Baccarat....

Some of us have forgotten so I will tell you guys again.....

You go into the casino with a $2,000 bankroll.

As soon as I get $10 ahead I quit and go home for the day. (So I was in the casino for about 5 minutes)
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner... I have beaten the casino!

Now obviously nobody is going to drive 30 minutes to go to the casino just to win $10.

But do you see the point I'm trying to make?

With 10K in chips I would be able to beat the casino out of $90 bucks everytime I go there.
Because I know what I'm doing!

Does the logic make sense here?

No.

Assuming no house edge...
If you take $10 to the casino and want to win $10 you have a 50% of winning.  You would just bet $10 once.  There are other ways of winning $10, such as continually betting $5 until either you end up $10 up or lose your $10, but if you analyse this you will find the probability of winning $10 is still 50% every time no matter what the strategy.

If you take $30 to the casino and want to win $10, you have a 75% chance of winning.  You would bet $10 and if it lost you would bet $20. Probability of losing is the probability of losing both bets, which is ½ * ½  = ¼.

If you take $70 and want to win $10, you have a 7/8 chance of winning.

The formula for chance of winning is...BR/BR + $10.

If you take $2000 to the casino you have a probability of200/201 of winning $10 (assuming you leave when you get your $10 up of course).  However, you have a probability of 1/201 of losing your $2000.  So do this around 201 times and you will lose your $2000 one day.
You should win $10 often enough though to get your $2000 back in the long run.  Note though that you will not actually make money in the long term, because the day will come when you lose your $2000.

ALSO HOWEVER, in reality there is a house edge.  But with your betting strategy of only making the minimum number of bets, then this house edge is small.  But come out with a strategy that keeps you there all afternoon every visit betting and you will be donating your money to the casino staff, who need their wages to pay their bills.

Talking about lawn mowers, there's a new lawn mower out called the Victor Schappelle.  It's guaranteed to hold 3kg of grass.  Only Australians will likely get that joke though.
Are you sure your lawn mower isn't the standard baccarat model Victor Stall and Restart?

There was many a day I would read through the math with a fine toothed comb and explain where the errors were.  But no more.  Interesting story nonetheless.

Quote from: alrelax on March 29, 2017, 03:18:25 PM
Took all day out in the weather!  Like 10 hours!  I could have made my money in the casino, no??

Maybe one day you can post a pic of you with a mountain of chips in front of you at the baccarat table.  I'm sure you'll make it one day!

Quote from: alrelax on March 28, 2017, 04:18:10 PM
Yeah--free entertainment, just got to eh casino and watch.  Better than anything on TV!  LOL!

You don't have to just watch.  Bring a 4 colour biro and sit at one of those terminals (that is called Rapid Baccarat here) and play with play money (by writing it all down).  Can't lose real money and can have great entertainment.  You get to enjoy the casino environment too.  You can test your systems too if you want and confirm that yes your system does also lose like any other too.

The mathematics only works if you supply accurate records of your play.  Without accurate data the mathematics can't be applied and then you can even claim to win with 88000 hands played.

Quote from: brokerny on January 22, 2017, 05:22:41 PM
Browsing the internet, i stumbled onto another crazy system. www(.)baccarattraining(.)xom. anyone seen this? he charges either $5501 or $7503 and he even accepts bitcoin lol.

I didn't allow javascript at that website, which basically tells you how much I trusted them.

I like afternoon shift.  My mind has woken up and is at it's best.  Evenings are for relaxing.  Only reason for still playing in the evening is if you are chasing, which I don't like to.

Quote from: Gunny on January 05, 2017, 04:16:17 PM
Here are the results from the first simulation:

• This is based on 2,000 hands per week (50 hands per hour * 8 hrs per day * 5 days per week) and 50 weeks per year, basically the equivalent of a full-time job.
• Table min: $100
• Table max: $20,000 (note: I called a nearby casino today to ask what their table limits are, and these are what they had in the baccarat pit)
• Starting savings: $2M
• Yearly bankroll withdrawn from savings: $2M
• $250k is initially "staked" per week, but additional withdrawals from the year's bankroll are allowed to finish out any given week. Any week ending under $250k is considered a losing week. The week's loss is deducted from the bankroll, but the next week starts off with a fresh $250k.
• $20,000 per week is withdrawn to pay the player and cover expenses.
• At the end of the year, the money left over in the bankroll is added back into savings and $2M is withdrawn to start off the new year.
• This simulation was run repeatedly over the course of 1,000 years.
• The results are in the attached spreadsheet.
• In this run, only one of the years (#44) ends up with a loss. The bankroll and withdrawals end up at $1,835,500 for a total loss of $164,500 on the year.

You're obviously very reputable, especially noticeable by the fact that you conceded that year #44 ended up with a loss.  Your system has to be the best one currently available and I will help you find sponsors so that together we can put in the hours and make everyone a big profit.

Quote from: 21 Aces on January 08, 2017, 07:51:08 AM
How does the Dark Wizard and his Black Riders OWN ADVICE of betting only on Bank not qualify as a system? After all, that is what they advise.

Betting only on bank is a system.  Only he doesn't say it will give you positive cash flow, it will just lose the least amount of money over time; possibly leaving you money to buy a meal with at the end of your session.

I can improve on his system too, it's only for commission baccarat.  In the other form where banker 6 pays 1/2, you should bet player.

I don't have a mechanical system that I stick to, I rely on the Gods to tell me how to play.  Do you think this guy will let me take the challenge?

Quote from: soxfan on October 30, 2016, 02:09:46 AM
You gonna ten million hand to buck up against the "long run", hey hey?

I'll be there when he's there.  You can come and play too hardy hardy ha ha hey hey.

Quote from: RolexWatch on October 22, 2016, 12:53:08 PM
I've told you I do, have done so for many years.  Ok, how am I suppose to confirm, collect, what evidence do you require without me revealing all my personal details?   I get it though, by the sheer number of people I have shared a table with in the last decade, 99% of them treat it as entertainment, win, lose, get upset, be happy, go home.  So I can fully understand anybody playing this game being sceptical, because most struggle.

I accept your wager, how much we talking, what needs to be done to prove it?  Just to let you know, I do understand where you are coming from, you've struggled and don't believe anybody else can pull it off.  I've felt that way at the tables many many times, it's takes a lot of patience, buckets of it.  It drives me up the wall sometimes, yet this it what it takes to be able to pull it off, patience and self-control, especially when it seems each time to bet Banker the Player pulls a natural straight off the bat, yeah once or twice I can handle.  Often when I've got one foot out the door and I'm cursing like a MF, that is when you dig deep inside and relax.     

You can prove it by coming to my place and I will deal to you.  I'll put up a chip tray matched with a BR that you can chase.  You get to keep all your winnings and free Guiness and cashews or whatever.

Quote from: Garfield on September 19, 2016, 03:09:22 PM
Great. I'm in Bali too. There's a shirt with the "IB2B2" brand. LoL

Might be good to get one and wear it if we ever go back to Vegas lol.

I must have a boring life posting my holiday report on a baccarat forum hey, but then hey, I think my life is quite full with baccarat in it.  I don't have much else in my life atm.  Well that's obviously not true, I have a wonderful partner (that's girlfriend for you Americans) that wants to get in between me and my casino life.

So where am I???
You've been to Paris and you've been Boston
You've been to Fiji and you've been to London
But you can't impress me
'Cause I've been to Bali too
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVOIg_lHRzk

I just played this old Redgum clip and you know...Bali hasn't changed in the 30 years since this clip was a hit.
I actually saw the Good vs Evil Hindu dance yesterday and wow, My partner has exactly the same vid in her camera that you saw on the clip.
Except the scooter now costs 150k Rupes a day (which is $15) instead of 5k Rupiah in the song.  Can't give you a selfie of me riding the scooter, but just assume I'm riding around like a maniac as you do when you're in Bali.  It's the only way to get around in this hot tropical coconutland.

I'm here for a total of 8 days, wish it was less because I'm missing my casino baccarat and I'm already worn out, sunburnt and had enough cheap coconuts and cocktails, but hey, it's bloody good to come and get some tropical weather in the middle of my winter and have fun at the beach and the rice paddies and the temples and all the things you see in the video.  I really needed the vitamin D too.
Some happy snaps to come.