Quote from: Albalaha on April 20, 2021, 04:50:18 AM
I would expect at least 8 hits in further 20 consecutive trials with at least 90% certainty.
       I know even events with less than 1% probability kicks in a random game very easily but this does not hold good in the long run. I would play for +50/-100. .

Sir,
Wow!
I think this trigger with 90/10 ,should be exploit to hilt!
$hould think out, (naively? ), a mm that win100, lose100, this shoud be our hg!

Dear Albalaha,
I greatly admire your deep knowledge,
(practically and theory)...and learned a lot from your writing.

May I ask you a very important question.

Question:In all your lifetime experience, and millions of real casino's data analysing,

in 100spins, or hands,

what the worst extreme EC hit( in real casino data)?
I think it never less than 30hit/100.
Your answer, very important to me, since I try to create a method and strategy to mm and progression.
Thanks in advance.

Dear Albalaha,
Sir,

One pertinent question.

What the ratio of
Extreme vs within-math
seasons.

or in 100seasons,
how many seasons, averages,
are the extreme seasons?
Thanks.

It is not quite good
to bet "fixed RED",
since we know,
great negative extreme
variance, will hit, after, few
easy sessions...
and then drawdown,
to -300u, just impossible,
to play in bm casino, except,
online with cents or a dollar
minimum.
We must have a bet selection,
that is fluid, by, changing side,
to take advantage, the other
side of negative; the positive
extreme variance.
But, people may screaming
their lung out,
and bulging eyes,
that its impossible!
But just because,
I cannot find, that bet selection,
I simply
cannot shriek
"ignorant!" toward others!

Quote from: Albalaha on April 15, 2020, 12:27:16 PM
53 losses vs 37 wins: (how does such sessions go with your MM)?

bet (wwww), if lose all 4 ,bet next (LLLL)
X=lose
h=hit
-----------

bet (wwww)
l x lose
l x lose
w hit
l

l x
l x
w hit
l

l x
l x
l x
l x, lose all 4,
next bet (LLLL)

w x
l hit
l
l

l h
l
l
l

l h
l
w
l

w x
l h
w
w

w x
l h
w
l

w x
l h
l
w

l h
l
w
l

l h
w
w
l

w x
l h
w
l

w x
l h
w
w

l h
l
l
l

l h
w
l
w

w x
l h
w
l

w x
l h
w
l

w x
w x
l h
w

l h
w
l
w

l h
w
l
w

w x
l h
w
l

w x
l h
l
w

l hit22
w

Dear Albalaha,
Sir,
With due respect.

I think, since, it,
the extreme variance,
kills everyone br,
and previous profits too...

Then, my main purpose,
is not, to look for,
an EDGE, but to avoid
EXTREME VARIANCE.

We need to seek any
possible way,
to avoid going through it.

another Albalaha's extreme, bet through filter

Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 11:36:00 AM
#2            153 LOSSES VS 106 WINS

SOMEHOW LIKE WHAT AGRALIM WANTED: BEATEN AT THE LAST WIN. OVERALL -2.4 SD. -5.46 SD IN THE FIRST 50 TRIALS WITH 5/60 WINS. KIND OF VIRTUAL LIMITS. THE SESSION HAD REGULAR UPS AND DOWNS THEREAFTER TOO. NO PATCHY OR CORRECTIVE WINS.

bet (wwww)(LLLL)


L x
L x
L x
L x lose all4,
next bet (LLLL)

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
L
W

L h
W
L
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
W
L
L

L h
L
W
L

W x
W x
W x
L h

L h
W
L
L

L h
L
W
L

W x
W x 10
L h
W

L h
W
W
W

L h
W
L
W

P?  x
L h
L
W

L h 20
W
W
L

W x
L h
W
L

W x
L h
W
W

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
W
L

L h
W
L
L

W x
W x
L h
W

L h
L
L
W

L h
W
L
W

W x
L h
W
L

W x
L h
W
L

L h
W
W
W

W x
L h
W
L

W x 20
L h
L
W

L h
L
W
L

W x
W x
L h
W

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
W
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
W
L
W

W x
L h 40
W
W

L h
W
W
L

W x
L h
W
W

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
L
W

W x
L h
W
L

L h
L
L
L

L h
L
L
W

L h
W
W
L

W x
L h
W
L

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
W
W

L h
W
L
W

L h
W
L
W

W x
W x
L h
W

L h
W
W
L

W x
L h
W
L

W x
L h
W
W

L h
W
L
L

L h
W
L
L

W x
W x
L h
W

L h
W
L
L

W x
L h
W
L

W x
W x
L h
W

L h 64
W
L
W

here another Albalaha's extreme,
which bet through filter.

Quote from: Albalaha on April 25, 2020, 09:48:40 AM
Just tested this dreaded session of EC and finally won a net profit. It has 141 Losses vs 94 wins i.e. -2.65 SD
_________________
here bet
(wwww)if lose all 4spins/hands,
bet (LLLL)

h=hit
x=lose
_______________

bet (wwww)

L x1
L x2
L x3
L x4=lose all4,
next bet(LLLL)

W x5=lose
L hit1
L
L

L hit2
L
L
W

L hit3
L
L
L

Wx6
L hit4
L
L

L hit5
L
L
L

L hit6
W
L
L

L hit7
L
L
W

L hit8
L
L
W

L hit9
L
W
L

W x7
L hit10
L
W

W x8
L hit11
W
L

L hit12
L
W
L

L hit13
W
L
W

L hit14
W
L
W

L hit15
W
L
W

W x9
L hit16
W
L

W x10
L hit17
L
W

L hit18
W
W
L

L hit19
W
L
W

L hit20
W
L
L

L hit21
L
W
L

L hit22
L
W
L

W x11
L hit23
W
L

L hit24
W
L
L

W x12
L hit25
W
W

L hit26
W
W
L

W x13
L hit27
L
L

L hit28
L
L
L

W x14
L hit29
W
L

W x15
L hit30
L
W

L hit31
W
W
L

W x16
L hit32
W
W

W x17
L hit33
W
L

L hit34
W
L
W

L hit35
L
W
W

L hit36
W
L
L

L hit37
L
W
L

W x18
W x19
L hit38
W

L hit39
W
L
W

L hit40
W
L
W

W x20
W x
L hit41
W

L hit42
W
L
L

L hit43
W
L
W

L hit44
L
W
L

W x21
L hit45
W
L

W x22
L hit46
W
L

W x23
L hit47
L
L

W x24
L hit48
W
W

L hit49
W
L
W

L hit50
L
L
W

L hit51
W
W
L

W x25
L hit52
L
L

W x26
L hit53
W
W

L hit54
W
L
L

L hit55
L
W
L

W x27
W x28
L hit56
W

L hit57
L
W
L

W x29
L hit58
W

[/quote]
Hi 8OR9,
That LW, are Albalaha's
extreme win lose.
I just try, to think a way,
to avoid EXTREME variance, in EC bet by, alternating bet, when "one side sleep", and also when "both side hit math expectation".
So, either, 'one side sleep', or 'both side active', we avoid extreme variance.


below another a
Albalaha's extreme, that I try to avoid "extreme".

Quote from: Albalaha on April 28, 2020, 01:01:47 PM
#3         ANOTHER BRUTAL SESSION: 219 LOSSES VS 154 WINS BEATEN WITH MAX BET=12 UNITS

bet in increment four,
(LLLLL) or
(WWWW)
alternate when lose all four.
x=lose
h=hit.

when hit,
sit out the rest.

bet (wwww)

Lx
Lx
Lx
Lx lose 4,
next bet (LLLL)

W x=lose
L hit
L
L

L hit
L nb
L nb
L nb

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
L nb
L nb
L nb

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
W
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
L

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
W
L
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
W
L
W

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
W x
L hit

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
L
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x

Hi,
I think, bet EC, is risky,
since, worst in 100spins may only had 30hit, and worst ever 200spins=69/200spins

below,  a bet selection, that bet in matrix4,
say, roulette,
bet RED for 4spins,
if win a spins, sit out,don't bet the rest.
If lose all four, change to bet BBBB.

Quote from: Albalaha on April 29, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
I spotted the worst time to start . #143. It took me 600 spins to win it finally. Max bet=24 units.

268 Wins vs 333 Losses almost -2SD overall. L/W of the worst stretch looks like:
-----------------------
bet in 4increment,
sit out the remaining spin if win.

let say,
L=banker
w=player

bet 4HAND(wwww),
if lose all four, then bet (LLLL)
X=lose
h=hit


bet 4spin (wwww)
Lx
Lx
Lx
Lx lose all
next bet 4spin(wwww)

W hit
L nb
L nb
L nb

W hit
L nb
Wnb
Lnb

L x
L x
W hit
L nb

L x
L x
L x
L x next bet (LLLL)

W x
L hit
W nb
L nb

Wx
L hit
L
W

W x
W x
W x
L hit

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
W
W

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
L nb
L
L

W x
W x
L hit
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
W x
W x
L hit

W x
L hit
L
W

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
L
L


W x
L hit
L
W

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

W x
L hit
W
W

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
L
L
W

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
W
W
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
W
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
L
W
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
L
L
W

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
L
W
W

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
L
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
W x
W x
L hit

L hit
L
W
L

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
W
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
W
W
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

L hit
W
L
L

W x
L
L
L

L hit
L
L
L

L hit
L
W
W

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
L
W
L

W x
W x
W x
L hit

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
W
W
W

W x
W x
W x
L hit

L hit
L
L
W

W x
W x
L hit
L

L hit
W
W
L

L hit
W
W
W

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
W

L hit
L
L
W

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
W
W
W

L hit
L
L
W

L hit
W
L
W

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
L
W
W

W x
W x
W x
L hit

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
W
W

L hit
W
W
W

W x
W x
W x
L hit

L hit
W
L
W

W x
W x
L hit
L

W x
L hit
W
L

L hit
W
L
W

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
L
L

W x
L hit
L
W

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
L
W
W

L hit
W
W
W

W x
W x
L hit
W

W x
L hit
W
L

W x
W x
L hit
L

W x
W x
W x
L hit

W x
W x
W x
W x bet(wwww)

W hit
W
L
L

W hit
L
W
L

W hit
W
W
L

W hit
W
W
W

L x
W hit
W
L

L x
W hit
W
L

W hit

Alrelax,
thanks for
your interesting
anecdote,
appreaciat them.
As you see,
mathwise,
if we bet, flatbet,
for every-single bet,
we can't win, thus,
I think, we need
to bet where the
math won't applied.
Something,
like the futures bet...
where you bet, from
three angles,
whether the market,
down, up, or stagnant,
you make money,
if the bet$ are right!

Of course, I mean playing separate ly.

Since I can't do programming,
I hope, some long testing done,
with YOUR applicable strategy.

Without testing, we could only guessing.
The logic, if one person bet RED only and in next 1000spins,
he will encounter,
a hundred or two that hit with extreme variance, and come out with some profit,
thus another person playing separately, BLACK,
at the same table and same 1000spins, will also encounter,
same risk, and end with positive result.

Sir,
May you please test this...

imho...

Since your concept
is to minimise losses when extreme hit, especially 30/100 hit, and making hay when within expectation.

Hypothetically,
Say,
two person betting at same table,
applying your strategy and method to the book.
one person bet RED, and the other bet BLACK.
Thus if next 100 spins, within expectation, then both person will win within expected profit.
Then ,if say, RED, hit by extreme, then RED will suffer "x losses", but then BLACK will going through POSITIVE variance, and should make a huge killing, to OFFSET the RED's x-losses.

But then again RED&BLACK, respectively, will have offsetting extreme variance too,
thus, if RED goes through extreme, and suffer losses, the other side, BLACK, must gain positive offsetting value.
Then, no matter, extreme positive or negative variance, constant profit, albeit smaller, profit could be make.

Quote from: 6th-sense on April 03, 2020, 10:08:06 AM
Would the Paroli method be combined with the modified Labby?

could you show example how the combined. ...method win with only 7hit in next 20spins?

in the other hand,
any method, must keep losses low, when hit with, say ,
only 30hit/100spins,
preferably under 100u,
(starting bet=1u),
and then next 200spins,
which has hit within expectation,
the winning could offset the losses...

Friends,
Let me try to explain Albalaha's Way, or concept.
I THINK,
Albalaha's way...
1)He can't predict, and won't forecast...
He says,
in long run, say 1000spins,
RTM, may always kick in, (Albalaha had found "only 387/1000" in Zumma, thou...).
2)in next 100spins, rtm always kicks in, but once in while,
extreme variance, also presents itself, now the pertinent question, is, in increments of 100spins, WHAT THE RATIO,
of RTM/EXTREME?
I, think Albalaha, regard, 6/2...

6rtm/2extreme,
as the ratio.

3)Extreme variance,
He regards , short term,6/20 as extreme, since labby can't close in 20spins.
And I think, any lesser than 40/100,
being extreme,( though labby could close, horrible staking causing br depleted).
4)Extreme avoidance...He apply 20spins, as stop loss parameter, anything less than 7/20, will alert stop, and see if next 20spins, has 7/20 or more, before resume betting.

5)I don't know about his progression,
I think he start small, (labby0,1,maybe),
to avoid hitting huge losses, if extreme hit...losing between 20 to 50u losses per 100spins...
and make hay, when hot!

Thus, in long term bet, he may encounter one or two extreme losing, seasons of 100 bet, but OFFSET, with few more winning seasons.

what you think?