Started off good but with excessive ties as you can see.  The shoe had a total of 16 ties with two more sets of back to back ties.  Lots of natural 8 or natural 9 ties within those 16.  Probably 8 of those were natural 8 or 9 ties. 

I hit the fortune 7 as you can see from the picture I snapped. 

I was playing $225.00 to $350.00 build outs, positive progressions for my base wagers.

Right after the score board shot I snapped, it turned to all chop chop.  There was a total of 9 additional chops, bringing the shoe to hand 38. 

I was not playing the chop.  I stuck with banker and fell outside the groove, big time!  It was a big time easy 'give me' playing the chop, most were naturals for either side, as well as reductions to zero for the side that just previously won, etc.  But I did not play it.  Would have been a quick $5k-$9k. 

I was staying even at best, winning one, giving it back, winning one, giving it back, etc.  I took it all the wrong way and the frustration built.

The shoe then turned to all singles, doubles and 1 triple for the next 37 hands.  10 singles, 12 doubles and the one triple.  Like I said, there were 6 additional ties as well.

Not a good shoe for me.  Big time stupid me!  I just didn't play it as it was being presented.

I try to play all shoes with 3-5 sections.  Sections allow me to concentrate and realize on what is actually being presented. 

Every shoe will have sections.  Every 15-25 hands or so is a section.

Anything and everything can happen in any shoe played of Baccarat.

That is why my greatest advantage is, if I can stick to it and deploy huge self-control and patience is, following sections without being biased and focusing on experience (which causes us to be biased) and what I want the shoe to do (which most don't understand the shoe will not comply with our desires—rather it presents what it is physically set to).

And what you just wrote there; "Naturally there is no guarantee that the deviated category at either positive or negative side will come out "when we wish" and it's very likely that after one or a couple of negative shoes the player's attitude is flawed." 

SPOT THE FRICK ON!  So many, the highest of the greatest majority have zero idea why the casinos spent so much real valuable money on all those high tech beautiful score boards!


Ask a player and something like: "Those scoreboards give us a huge advantage", will be said.

Ask a casino executive back in the late 90s/early 2000s and something like:  "Those scoreboards entice players to wager as well as feel like they can predict more, causing them to wager longer and larger.  Couple that with the well known fact, the longer they play the more they lose", will be said.   

Went and played a shoe the other night.  Lots of classic easy to read give-me's in the shoe! 

The sections occurring, the strong, the weak, the mini run of 6 by each the bankers and the players and those being side-by-side, the 3 beautiful fortune 7s, and a lot of great dragon bonuses of 7 and 8 and 9 to zero bonuses for pay outs of 6 or 10 or 30 to 1.

Fortune 7s at hands 6-11 and 55. There was one more F7 at the end of the shoe as well.

Here is a picture of the shoe a little better than half way with the first two sections marked up.  I was playing this particular shoe in 3 sections. 

Here is a picture of my 3rd fortune 7 win, which was a 7 to 0 win, so the F7 $20 bet was an $800.00 payout and the dragon $30 bet was a $180.00 payout.  The dealer is getting ready to pay me as you can see, he has the $180 cut out for the dragon win and is getting 6 hundred more of green out, as that is what I asked for.

Asym,

They are shuffled by a machine.  But after each shoe, they remove the cards from the holder box to the right side of the dealer in approximate 8 groups, place on the table, mix them up real good and then replace in the shuffle machine.  Then they remove the one that is ready and use that one.

For some reason, I don't know why, cannot post more than 10 pictures in the thread so I'll give you the 11th one here which is worth displaying IMO.

This was a great shoe if one believed in it. Although only myself and about two others really did throughout the majority of it. It was a full table with some back betting going on as well.

Most of all the belief was, the players side will come back and come back strong. Lots of Martingale wagering on the player side with consistent and repetitive player side wagering going on. The mentality of most of the people was totally amazing.

So so many people these days wager against any streaking and for the chop when there is obviously one side dominating; Or they wager for the streak when the shoe is producing repetitive chops or 1s and 2s. 

Best I can recall is the following. In the beginning was just about the bankers side winning by one point or a drastic reduction in the players side to a zero or near zero. Those three natural back to back hands number 4-5 and 6, were  players natural eight and bank natural nine, players natural nine And banker seven, players natural eight and banker natural nine.

When the first streak of 6 bankers happen the players side had pretty good opening cards such as a two card 7 and a natural 8 on the first two. The next two hands 12 and 13, players five and bankers one, Players pull a three and bankers pull an eight. Then players open zero and bankers opens zero also. Players pull a seven and bankers pull an eight. Last one was a Fortune 7, see picture.

The players make a single win. Everyone but myself and another are verbally pumping up the player side with belief that the players will have a strong come back with almost every hand played. And they're all wagering on it.

Hands 18-19 and 20 are all natural nines for the bankers side and the players side once again had natural eights or open with a two card seven. Then the second Fortune 7 happens.  See picture.  Another natural for the banker.

Now one of my favorite dealers turns to be and mouths the word, "TIE".  I seldom wager tie, very seldom. So I throw up a black chip on the tie wager. The dealer flops a natural 8 for the players side and I look at him and he looks at me while holding the two cards for the bankers side and he says, "don't worry I told you tie". Of course all I see was the loss of about $650 on my bet, $30 on the dragon side bet, $100 on the Tie bet and $20 on my fortune 7 bet. I said, "yeah right you just cost me $800"!!!

So he flops the two bankers cards and it is a natural 8 as well, and on top of that he says, "TIE and I gave you an exact 6/2—6/2 Tie". Looks at me and rolled his eyes, one for the books. See picture, I kid you not!  Now this game is getting interesting! 

Only myself and one other person had the tie as you can see. The other guy had two green chips on it.

The players side makes a triple with back to back wins. I religiously stick with the bankers side, but I tone it down a bit because there's like zero camaraderie and very little excitement except for one or two of us and a favorite dealer. But I don't jump on the player side as most all were doing.

If this shoe was at a $10,000 max table it would easily be a $250,000 shoe plus, but unfortunately it was not.

Then came the small chop. Jumped on that, but not using positive progression which of course I should have. I still did not see what was going to happen in real strong vision. It was now right at the +10 mark that the bankers were ahead and which I do believe the highest majority of the times, will continue with chops or turn in favor of the lacking side with doubles and triples. And I'm a firm believer on what I just said.  See picture 7 in relation to this.

But what happened, what was set to happen, happened!!

Hand 32 through hand 46. When it made that bankers win on hand 33, I started to envision the bankers side is going to remain strong and will get stronger. Hand 33 went players zero and Bankers 2.  Players pulled a seven and bankers pulled a six. The next two hands, Players side once again had a natural eight and then a seven and the bankers side had a natural nine and then a natural 8 to beat the players side each time.

Not many couldn't believe what was happening. Mouths were physically opened and repetitively saying, "WTF" as well as "OMG I can't believe what's happening", etc. etc.

Hands 36 to 41 were a strong show of banker power. With each hand the players side had a six or seven and the bankers would win by pulling a 7 or 8 or 9 or the players side was reduced to zero or possibly a one and the bankers won each hand by having a two or three total point value. 

Both of the back to back ties were natural nines. The bankers side finished with a 13 streak win. See picture eight in relation to this. 

The game continued as you can see in the next picture. See picture nine in relation to this. What is interesting, was the bankers had a lot of hands they normally would lose to a pretty good opening player hand or a 3rd card players pull, but almost every time that happened the bankers would just dominate and have to pull one or one of two cards and they would pull that one or the other card necessary to win the hand numerous times.  Example.  Players having a 4 and bankers having a 3.  Players pulling a 4 and bankers pulling a 6. 

Another fortune 7 came with the last winning banker hand of the shoe, hand 68.  See picture 10 in relation to this.

The last picture is my reward for playing the shoe the correct way.

PICTURES:

1st. Up to the end of the 2 bankers side runs starting the domination.  Shows the two Fortune 7's.

2nd. The first Fortune 7

3rd. The second Fortune 7

4th. My tie bet, showing what I had out there.  PLEASE NOTE, THIS IS A LOW DOLLAR TABLE, $25.00-$1,000.00.

5th. Getting paid on my tie bet and showing you the cards as I stated.

6th. Stacking up some early wins, while others are continuously buying in due to their employment of the martingale on the Players side!

7th. Showing the strongest the players ever got with that triple win as I wrote about.  The point most all got influenced IMO to commit to the players side. 

8th. Showing the board after the 13 streak banker run.

9th. Showing the board where the dominant bankers side continued with no equalization that normally happens.  Especially at or near the ending of the shoe!

10th. Showing the last few hands of the shoe with the 3rd fortune 7. 

11th. The profit.

Win today with an app and lose the next ten fold days/sessions with the app. 

Same thing as the scoreboard.  Follow it this shoe and win and then the next 15 shoes total unpredictability or un-followability! 

Take all the notes you want at the table.  4 cards left, three face cards and one 9, before the red card comes out.  Please tell me which side will get the two face cards and which side will get the 9 and a face.  Please tell me.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

AS YOU WROTE:  "My opinion differs on this one. I attempt to beat the game every day/ when Im not playing Im researching, studying the game, discussing with others,  ..etc on how to improve and beat it. So I guess I am obsessed and live to beat the game. Much like trying to beat the stock market. One must be obsessed with winning as both are very arduous tasks. Sometimes I receive favor /sometimes I don't."

Well I actually meant, play until you win amounts greater than previously or you totally lose all.  So many players wherever I go, are winning and when engaged in conversation, they are telling me their goal is to beat their previous high/record win or they just keep randomly adding on win goals as they continue playing.  Then when they start losing, their new win goal reverts to recouping their previous win they gave back.  Frustration and emotional decision making enters.  Huge disadvantage. 

THEREFORE, based upon that, my original meaning would be:

Accepting 100% some sessions will not be win sessions and governing your wins with a great MMM plan is what I was referring to. 

Not, being a dedicated hard researcher, risk taker, learner, putting in the hours or anything along those points.

Quote.................


Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

A very controversial subject. 

But.....all a machine can do is 'deep' shuffle, or 'light' shuffle.  No way to put in order card values, etc. 

And....if you see same cards and 1 or 2 lesser/greater
point value consecutive cards appearing in repetitive order, use that to your advantage.  Again, as I have done very well with, following the presentments and not wagering for something I desire.

And.....I strongly believe the cut, at least if it's greater than a half deck deep, as well as the burn, squashes any order the shoe could have been set up with.

I have done countless trials years ago with 8 decks, shuffling, putting in order and then hundreds of cuts and burns, no order of my 'pre-set' cards was able to be held.

The questions are tough, the questions are ones that most never find the answers to, never really want to deal with, or ones that are quickly dismissed as unanswerable.  But they MUST be!

I desperately struggled for years to engage into finding answers and just thinking about it stressed me out countless times. So I simply avoided the questions and the soul-searching it demanded of me. Until............Recently.

The tangled and the misunderstood realm of the game entered my mind and remained in the forefront at the end of every single session I played. The presentments, the shuffle, the dealer, the amount won or given back, the published and written Q's & A's and stories. All ran through my head on the way out of the casino after each session.

Think about it. The shoe produces presentments that fall within the sphere, the domain within which anything and everything can occur, prevail, sometimes dominates the field, or fails to produce anything recognizable. Other times the presentments are totally recognizable and they match our beliefs, desires and decisions spot on, sometimes even allowing us to win like 7 or 8 times out of 10 leading us to fantastic wins. 

And with that said, onward with what this is really about, decisions and making them while winning.  How would it have been great if we previously left? Think about it, sure we are after anything to protect our buy in and a small or smallish win.  But IMO and experience, the greatest wins and 'great' sessions come after an 'up and down' of my buy in.  Which means, a drawdown of my buy in, evening out and getting a little bit ahead, once even twice, like being on a roller coaster ride. 

Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, visually and physically which will definitely assist in relieving the person's emotional downturn and stress factor, making it easier for clearer and more focused decision making.  It does for myself every time I get within the event of a nice ongoing winning session. 

IMO there is no magic percentile when to stop or continue play when you are winning. But one thing for 100% certain, if you stop, you cannot win more. And the more you win the more you want to continue playing. I don't care who you are, that applies to each one of us.

One example comes to mind that happened to myself not long ago. I arrived at my regular casino and no one was playing and one of my absolute favorite dealers was sitting there bored to death. We engaged in some quick small talk and I was gonna go get something to eat and kill an hour or so and come back. Anyway I took out only $100 from my buy in risk capital I brought and I laid it out on the table. She said, 'WHAT'?  I said, one hand be nice, just checking you out before the real play when I come back from eating. I put $80 on the banker and $20 on the fortune 7. She gave me a fortune 7 for an $800 win. I played a few more hands, and I won most of them. Not many hands later she gives me a second Fortune seven. A few people sat down at that time. By the end of the shoe I had over a $2,000 profit, got up to well over $3,000 and gave back about $1,000. She is telling me to take it and leave. Not a bad return on the next to nothing investment of my only $100 buy in.

But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. 

And I remember her, seriously telling me to take the money and leave when I was at the $2,000-$3,000 mark. Thinking back on that, at least twice I almost did, but the ups and downs were quick and I stalled out at that $1,800-$2,000 mark and again at $2,900-$3,300 mark as well. Then I took off again with winning most all parlays and positive progressions for 1-2 or 3 hands and losing only those when I backed down to my base unit wagers.

So if I left with say $2,500 I never would have reached the $7,000 to $8,000;mark. I was basically doing a 1/3 risk of what I was winning once I reached the $3,000 level which I have written about countless times in my money management method, that I normally use.

Here are three quick examples of what I am talking about here actually was applied and gave me clear advantages.

1)


2)


3)



NOTE:  Reference #3.  I have several pictures of the scoreboard and will post them.

So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at. At least it is for myself and most of the people that I play with at the casinos. Buy in safe-a but of profit. But I do know playing on all win/won money is what I strive for.  But, it gets confusing at times. How much longer to quit, risk the win money further, leave even if winning fails to continue, etc., etc.

So many repeatedly write/say on the forums, win 1 to 3 units and leave. Lose 3 to 5 units and stop. I can't fathom that and I don't play that way. I don't have those kind of win stop, loss stop rules. I can never see making anything substantial if you play like that. Maybe I'm wrong? However mine are like so many. They want to win sizable amounts and I do, quite often. My loss stop is my buy in money. My buy in is my risk capital for the session. My win stop is unclear without definitive numbers. Once I takeoff, if I do, I govern myself by my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method.  Which works like a rock-solid rule manuscript maintaining success or having further profitability 1,000,000% of the time!

It works extremely well and I know it does, because I have no regrets if I was winning nicely, then gave back 1/3rd win and continued my play with my second 1/3rd of my win as my playing money. If I took off again, great, that is what my 1/3rd sectors are designed to do. If I lost a 1/3rd sector and struggling with my second 1/3rd sector, I am normally done. I have my buy in plus 1/3rd to 2/3rds of my win.  Cash out, leave, done and that emotional, 'I shoulda and coulda' doesn't exist!!!

So many win and see their session as unprecedented and a labored win they so rightfully deserved. They get into a zone, tuning everything out and become their own worst enemy most every single time they win or when the wins are happening for them. But they have nothing to govern themselves with.

It is easier said than accomplished at the table, but the only way to really excel is to focus, be extremely conscious and forget the past and what the shoe has produced or failed to produce in the past hands. Wager with the shoe's presentments and do not wager for your own desires as to what the shoe should produce or what your desires are. 

We talk about it all the time, especially with the ones we actually gamble with. The questions go something like; "How long do you play" or "If you are winning how long do you stay" or "If you are losing, how long will you attempt to come back" or "If you keep winning do you just up and leave at a certain point". And so on and so forth.

Tough, real tough if you soul search. By theory, so simple. If you are winning and start to lose, leave. If you were losing and can't get above your buy in or your buy in is depleting, leave.  But, it is not easy because we all know the presentments can certainly match our decisions and blast us into the positive if we were losing, or if we were winning, can blast us even further ahead. 

There are no easy, simple answers and never will be. However, you will wish you left much more than staying when losing. Because you experience the loss of your funds if you lose them. However, if you win/won or broke even and left, you probably will not really know what would have happened to really come about with a definitive conclusion. 

The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something; 

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. 

As soon as someone writes the below or along the lines of James Bond; the only possible motive is to steal the gambler's money, no matter a casino, systems seller or author.  Period.

"If you're looking to sit down at a Las Vegas casino table game with few complexities and a lot of James Bond-style gambling fun, baccarat is your go-to game."

"The purpose of gaming is to win".

Alrelax, 2023

....."it's more intricated to be grasped as being a by product of both math and statistical features.".....

But stress, you never know when it will adhere, appear or disappear.