Thx Asym for answering my question above in post#847. That makes sense.

Also, you mentioned: "...You can't do nothing when your B 5 point will succumb vs a 3 P point catching a 3 third card, or when your P 7 point will lose to a B 3 point drawing a 5 as third card.  ..."

My Q: Do you have any thoughts when B wins with one of its key favored hands: Drawing a two-card five/ choosing to not draw that third card, and getting the W.

    ?So do you view the remainder of the shoe as: There is now one less "two-card five scenario" available for B ?? 
"OR"  other viewpoints for the remainder of shoe re:  that "B two-card five scenario"


Thx in advance,kfb

Congratulations on the solid W.

"So I say, let's all name as many famous movie quotes and whom they are from within 5 minutes each without stalling and the winner, second and third runner up pays nothing for dinner and drinks.  The other two pay the entire bill.  We all agree."...
"...I got second place..."

Im always cautious when someone proposes a unique betting opportunity, LOL. I would have finished last in your "movie quotes" competition.


Continued Success,

alrelax:
"Understand winning and how it comes, why it came, why it doesn't and most of all, how to apply it to your Money Management Method"

I agree--its all about money management. Much of what we do when assessing wins/losses long term is based on when we take the short-term snapshots of our lifetime movie of betting.

In the short-term that snapshot after a winning streak looks great and the opposite if the snapshot is taken just after a losing streak. We shall have both. The key is to have something to show for the Win Streaks, as well as do not dwell on the L Streaks.

The winning is often more difficult to manage because we have to make decisions re: how we are going to parse the just won monies. Our MM should be predetermined and rock solid based on ones specific objectives. After the Losing sessions the casino is applying their MM.

We don't want to make ourselves "rewin" the just-won money again. In other words, don't play back 100% of our just-won money. Otherwise, we are just playing an endless/vicious cycling of money game. The casino will gladly do that all day long repeatedly siphoning out their 2%.


Continued Success,

Im thinking the casino employee(s) should have seen a couple red flags when "The 23-year old Gutierrez" presented himself as the hotel owner. Is it possible a couple accomplices helped this intellectual sleuth???  Cmon man.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/las-vegas-hotel-impersonation/2023/06/27/id/1125098/

Thanks AsymBacGuy--Good points.


"...But at the end the player capable to spot more 'higher' two-card initial points than average will get a sure advantage and this task could only be estimated by the average lenght of 'shifting' situations, that is the number of runs...."

Can you clarify (or give an example) as I'm not clear on what you're saying.

Thanks in advance,

Good article. The gentleman you referenced above had the right idea (Just not a well-formed plan or obviously not a preplanned plan).




Continued Success,

LOL, Yeah I thought my bac comrades would like that 

Ok/thx alrelax for prompt reply. Everything worked perfectly.

To clarify my above post: Upon clicking on the MORE button, then click on MODIFY, then edit,add, or whatever u want to the initial post.


Cheers,

As I mentioned in above TR. I went /picked up the newly ordered BacMobile today in Dallas,Texas,USA(Approx 6hours each way for me).

I typically don't travel to the Southern edge of Oklahoma(Texas border) to play Bac. However, I thought I would stop by at Winstar (Chickasaw tribe) and play a couple hours on the way back from Dallas.

*Winstar in OK, and the Choctaw casino(Durant,OK) are two of the top four largest casinos in the world.

I was ahead of schedule all day(Car was prepped /ready for me), stopped back by one of my favorite steak joints in Texas(Texas Roadhouse) and enjoyed a great Porter house steak. All good.

Then I had the great idea I would take a few pics of the car after finishing at the restaurant(as I figured by the time  I arrived home tonight it would have bugs on the grill/front end, road grime,...etc.
Well, I squatted down to take some pics level with the car tag and completely split my slacks in the back,LOL. So, no Bac at the Winstar cas this afternoon.  Oh well. Otherwise, a great day.


Continued Success To All,

I "think" the edit /upload pics feature is temporarily disabled while Vic is doing upgrade. I tried to upload a pic and had issues. Prior to the last few days we could post an item and if we needed to edit or add a pic we could A)Open initial post, and B) click on the  MORE button to the Right-Bottom of the initial post and then see that option(i.e., To edit or add pic).

Maybe Vic or alrelax will chime in here.


Continued Success,

as:
"...In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.
 

And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE...."

I agree. Its this "tightness" in Bac that makes it a superior game to other even-chance games. Plus we may receive that winning situation first (regardless of ones skill or lack of).


Continued Success,

Hi Asym

Thanks for reading and offering your thoughts.


Continued Success,

Continued TR from above post

LLLOOOONNNGGGG 12-Day Trip Report combined with my approach, to follow

A little delay on the TR as I didn't know how much downtime Vic was allotting for the new upgrades. Thx Vic for all you do.

But mainly due to the fact I was a little tired from my extended trip/had numerous errands and Honey Do projects on the home front after being gone for 12 days and 800 miles away.

Plus, I've been doing a little shopping:

Ordered my wife a new *Genesis G70 car (Ill try to post pic when it arrives—ETA <=10-13days).
I ordered myself a new tailored custom-fit suit from Black Lapel/ a new pair of cross trainer shoes from Amazon.

Many thanks to the Bac tables (and this run), as we will all agree that sometimes "The Bac" giveth/sometimes "The Bac" taketh away.

*This new car was a treat for my wife as she typically isn't into cars as long as they get her to work and back. I'm much more into cars than her and have always driven a luxury sedan and her an SUV. Neither of us have ever purchased a new car as we have always just paid cash for a low mileage 1.5—2yr old and driven them to approx. 150K—170k miles across 6-7 years, ...etc. Then park in garage or give to our kids, or a niece or nephew in college,...etc. Because as we all know typically dealerships won't offer a premium price as trade in value, on an above-avg mileage car ...etc.
This is the first car she has driven in probably 25-30 years as she has always preferred an SUV. Another part of the treat for her is that I typically don't purchase her car.


OK, enough boasting/ Back to the RUN

This run started in the Midwest, USA (I mostly play in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas), as I have a home near the junction of these states and within a few minutes can access turnpikes/interstates traveling 75-80mph N, S, E, or W. There are 120+ casinos in Oklahoma alone though I don't play at many in that state. I can stand in three states within 15minutes of my house. I have one casino approximately four minutes away, ...etc. So, I do certainly enjoy the benefits of living in a casino market and so close to so many cas/ main reason I moved here.

As I've mentioned in previous posts some don't offer Bac tables and many only have one or two bac tables and may not open both until 5pm, etc. I won't get into all the variations and types of bac offered on their mostly 6-deck shoe tables. Along with all kinds of goofy nonsensical rules/policies by some. So, I do have to be strategic with my daily travel and often schedule my travel a couple weeks out to optimize playing when the most tables are open, and other factors.   But I digress.

Ok. Back to the run.

To reiterate the intro post: This run started with a shoe that begin with P winning 16 of first 22 hands (mostly naturals) with turns after B1: PPP B PPPP B PPPPT B PPPP B PP B ,...etc. Then a long chop of approximately 8-10 or so in-a-row(IAR). I didn't catch many on the chop run. As I mostly just fiddled with my chips and admired my stacks, lol , for a few minutes. I caught Ws on the BOLD P spots above.

I also recall at a couple key spots in the early stages of the run where my wager was vulnerable(Meaning I hadn't collected any or only a small amount), I caught favor on a couple Ws (1-0 hand total once and another where  P won as B drew into an L by lowering their total), and another spot I was pressed at a higher level and P lost to a Dragon7 and I had hedged with the D7 for a W at approx. $ of my P wager amount.

As I recall this was one of only two D7s I wagered and though I do an ongoing count for D7s I primarily only do in the above situation where if I lose that bet I'm crippled/if I win I'm golden as Im typically net+  > than buy in. So received a little favor in the early-to-middle parts of the streak that "spun off" these initial five bets >=Tmax. So admittedly I was certainly receiving favor in critical spots.

Its what these "spun-off" amounts produce that is key as they are already high (vs starting at say 120), as they have been "generated" and their birth starts at an increment ~~4-5 bet levels above that very original generating bet (in this case was 120 + addendum $ added for that first parlay+). They become their own wager (after one stutter step) and get pressed much more aggressively in the early stages of their lifespan. Typically after their stutter step I only collect 2K, press the rest on each succeeding W until they reach 10K, and then they go into a 20% exponential press regime for the remainder of their life. . Of course, there may be many times that base unit of 120 never progressing beyond 500 or 1000, and sometimes fails to get past even 1iar.

So, after getting five wagers above that initial 2k Tmax I started to consider my options for a >=5K table in Oklahoma, Missouri or Kansas. As I typically head to one asap.
I chose the latter and traveled 4 hours & spent a day/night. They had a couple of 5K tables and since it was a weekend night, they agreed to open an additional 10K table. All good. I had a friend meet me there as four eyes better than two eyes,etc. A little stressful and though I also bought in with my usual 5K and played just like I typically do re: base wagers. The carryover wagers loomed, and I finally wagered the two largest ones for a W, and lost one of the lower (2475) from original five. So some shoes I only wagered 3-4 times (including the base unit sized bets).
The 2nd significant streak on this trek that I jumped in the middle of was a 2x run: BBPPBBPPBBB,P,B.  Other than these two runs I didn't really ever see a long same-event type runs of any significant length for the whole 12-dy trip that I was willing to bet into. I did see a P run late in one shoe but didn't get many Ws because up until that point the shoe was very erratic plus Im always a little hesitant to dive in late in a shoe.
So after a day/night in Kansas on the 2nd leg there was only one thing to do: Head to a market with 10K tables. It was either Kansas City, Missouri or The Great Rocky Mountains of Blackhawk, Colorado.

I headed to the mountains.
Famous for its gold run starting in the late 1800s. When the mining slowed the adjoining cities of Blackhawk and Central City (an hour out of Denver, Colorado, USA) decided to convert town/buildings to casinos and now 24+ casinos within an approximate 1.5mile. Great ski slopes and resorts only a few miles away. One of my favorite gaming destinations (not just for the 10k casinos/ski slopes/resorts) but a lot of gold/silver mining still going on in the area. I'm a hobbyist gold miner and have a small lease in that area. So, I decided to leave from Kansas as I was only 6-7 hours away. One of only two gaming cities in USA (Biloxi Mississippi) that I would consider livable cities.

A little more about my Bac Run in The Rocky Mountains a little later.

Another unique attribute of this run is the only wager remaining from the initially generated five is still alive and at its highest level(Next bet20,300). Whereas what typically happens is that the original wager may die at say the 8th-9th W hit and one of the spun-off wagers is the one that actually continues and can get to an inflated level very very rapidly(or at least has the potential).

Sometimes I have to remind myself "OK I only have135 in this and its already produced many times the  buy in,...etc", as sometimes I put a "kungfu grip" on the pressed-up wagers and really hesitate to keep pushing it out there again and again.

Re: Two lengthier streaks (The P run/2x alternating run) –Other than these two somewhat obvious streaky events most of my Ws came one or two here and there where I would try to get a W from the middle of an event(s)  and not always try to guess the turn precisely as I seem to have more success with this approach(i.e., not trying to guess the precise turning point).

Especially like in the above initial streak case where the significantly inferior side (B) was only going 1iar, as I would be more inclined to instead wager the "turn" from that 1iar and into the significantly superior side (P) in this case. 

Though I sometimes think I'm an above average guesser after several Ws in a row --I also look back sometimes and think "Damn I was lucky" and just thank God for the favor. Sometimes a little skill / a little luck are difficult to differentiate. At least IMO and for me.

*I did have one shoe at Blackhawk that started: Five of first eight hands were bonus-bet winners. (Two Dragon7, 3card 9 over 3c-7:200-1, 8-6, and one other that I don't recall). Dealer pointed it out to me. Crazy. I didn't have any of them.

What made this run a little different than previous ones (I've had six similar runs in past four years), is in this run I made it home with a net of ~~96% of highest Net+ $s, and still going with one wager (20,300). Whereas in the aforementioned runs my take home % was (r= .72--.85% of highest net), though a couple of these runs were larger net $ amounts,  their ROI and "take-home %" wasn't as efficient.

Plus on this run I was fortunate to get five above that initial Tmax (Mostly In one day and mostly one shoe). Whereas it often takes maybe two to three shoes across several days (or weeks even ) to get my >=3 pressed up wagers(often only 3) and justify traveling to a higher Tmax table.

Sometimes I only get 5wins in a row and though my buyin is typically replaced I may lose that very next bet or two and have to start all over again at the base unit level. When I do have the opportunity to travel to a higher Tmax casino with >=three wagers I often just hope to find enough favor to get 1of3  above the next Tmax of 5k, and often fail to reach that next higher Tmax increment.
So what I'm trying to say to all my 25-30yo bac comrades that could be reading this(Whom may have more money than maturity): An aggressive pospro doesn't always materialize as smoothly as this one trip. Much more easily said than done when in the trenches with your real / hard-earned money at risk.

My M.O. is to sink or swim with a positive progression(Pospro). I press (or occasionally regress)  something on every W. I seldom change directions: e.g., Press, regress, press.  When/if I ever start regressing, I continue regressing until that W streak ends. I prefer not to regress as we never know when that wager may win 4-5 more times.

I press a higher % in early Ws and <=% in latter stages, though nearly always press something. In other words, I never stand still after a W.


To summarize my typical approach:

I nearly always buy in with table max(Tmax) as many of my tables only have 2K Tmax. Most of my casinos allow one to cap another players wager. The other player has to handle the wager and actually place the bet for you,etc, so similar to many markets on that requirement.  So, one could possibly get ~~ 3800—3900 on the felt on a $50--2k table, depending on that neighboring players' wager size.

My starting base unit is always in an increment of 60(120, 180, 240, 300). The 240 and 300 base unit is typically only at 5K or 10K tables.

I like an increment of 60 because it allows one to easily increase as a function of the Tmax and I like the function of 60 (LCM for 123456) because these increments allow one to easily press/regress ones wager along a smooth curve (e.g., 1/1, ½, 1/3, ¼, 1/5, 1/6, ...etc), if one desires.

If I press aggressively early on and not still in line with a "60" increment I quickly do get in line/ get early-stage wager size in line with Tmax amount as I want to land right on Tmax. At or near this amount is where I typically do my main collection (stutter step), and then it's off to the races.

Re: fractional (1,1/2,..---1/6th) I don't worry too much about what to do after that sixth press or regress because I find it difficult to put together a streak significantly longer (i.e., I cross that bridge when I get there).

The Final Days Of The Trip:

The last two days of the trip was nothing eventful really as my cousin had to leave/back to work. So I didn't have any one that would cap their wager so I couldnt wager my lone pressed-up bet.

They don't allow you to hand a player your wager/request them to cap their bet like in other markets. So it has to be prearranged with someone and they appear to just be wagering their own bet,...etc.
The last two days I dropped down to the 5K levels. I did get one wager pressed up to 5K and hit. So I will hopefully get addendum hits on it in the near future. Two others made it to that level but lost.

More later/thx for reading, KungfuBac (aka Kungfu Karas)

Hi everyone. This Pic is me packing up to head home after a 12-day Bac run. (Hopefully I can get the pic to upload)

Ok, I didn't make quite that much but one of my better cash extractions in the past four years of full time play.

I just returned from a gold mining expedition at the Bac tables. Ill try to give more details in a day or two as trying to get caught up on a few things(plus I have road fatigue after traveling 800 miles each way to several casino markets).
The sweet part of this expedition is that I made it home with approximately 96% of my highest net+ during this run. Plus I have one very pressed up wager still alive from the original buyin that started this run.

I've mentioned in previous posts that most of my local tables only have 2K Table Max (so potentially could wager upward to 4K) if one can cap a fellow players wager (and they are not appreoaching Tmax).
My M.O. is that once Im fortunate enough to get three wagers above my local Tmax of 2K I then travel to a market with 5K Max. Sometimes I don't get three wagers to that level within one shoe or streak so it may take a few days or weeks and I simply set the wager aside until I have time to make a 4 hour overnight trip to the 5K tables. If Im successful and get three wagers above the 5K table(seldom), I then head to a 10K market,...etc. So alot of IFs.

Well, this original buyin (and gold mining expedition) started over two weeks ago as I caught a shoe starting with 16 Ps in first 22 hands. I jumped on it and pressed aggressively from the beginning. It produced five wagers above the 2K table max (2000,2060,2475,3275, plus the wager that produced these was (next bet at 4475). So two days later I was headed to a 5K table.

More to follow........

  AsymBacGuy

"...yet even at a 50/50 coin flip situation some patterns are proven to show up first than others (Konold, Nickerson, etc)..."

A large part of my game is based on this concept. Along with compounding.

Thanks for referencing Nickerson above. Im more familiar with Nickerson than Konold. Both great researchers. I actually communicated with Nickerson via email a few years back regarding some of his other unrelated research.

Though he is now getting up in years. He was very prompt in responding and seemed like a super nice guy. I "think" he retired in early 2000 or so.

Of course, like many scientists that publish something about a coin flip or HT results they probably didn't anticipate Baccarat players would be reading/studying their fine research.


Continued Success,