alrelax:
"...Be careful.  There are ways the casino can track you and have it appear they are not.  I have some minor detailed info on this.  Not handy right now, but I will dig out the email I received from an out of country, live online casino personnel, whom gave me some detailed operating tricks they use/used, etc.  I will find it and post what I was told..."


Thx as I would like to hear these operating tricks.

I like the idea of Stadium Bac setups like in Vegas,USA or Bethlehem, PA,USA where one can set at a console and observe 4 games at once being dealt with live dealers visible at the tables in front of you. Observing the cut/ see each card and draw. It doesn't seem like they could utilize any tricks. Possible, I guess.

My state of main residence doesn't permit any online gaming(of any kind). However, two nearby adjoining states allow it. Plus my state is changing some of their gambling laws(or likely will in the near future).

*Regarding the two nearby adjoining states. I find it interesting that as I drive and approach the state borders, I start receiving popup texts from Caesars et al sports books offer sports betting there.


Continued Success,

alrelax :
"...2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them.   ..."

Every variable (including Exit) in our game should be predetermined EXCEPT: Bet Placement.

Re: Exit Point--My preference is to predetermine my W exit as (>= X). Never Ever Limit.
Im always looking for that extended W streak. However, one must be realistic/ not push. Patience and wait for it to come to us.

My Lexit is (0) per buy in/shoe or I'm tired. I will only lose (<=1 buy in) per shoe. Yes I could possibly lose 1 buyin in >1shoe, or every shoe that day(though I don't recall ever doing so), and the next day, and the next day,...etc.

I don't feel a need to lose down to (0) or hit W goal each day. For example if I play 4-5 shoes and up(or down) a few hundred and didn't hit W or L exits I may call it a day. I'm not thrilled but some days I head home and feel like it was a wasted day. However, its also a consolation on some days as I realize many players went on tilt and busted several buyins in a single shoe. Other days I observe just as many winning big and then give back their orig buyin + 100% of the winnings.

*A few weeks ago I played two 4 hour sessions that day(prob 6shoes): Session 1=+120, Session 2=+15(after gas). that's not a good return for 9 hours at the table and away from home 12 hours.

** Another day awhile back I a had a grand Net = +$8 for the day after about 9 hours at the table.

Some days I simply can't get anything going. I try to avoid dwelling in the past. Same for big win days--I start anew the next day.


Continued Success To All,

Good Morning Gizmotron /thanks for your reply.

Gizmotron: "... missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate.  ..."

I agree.

I view gambling at Bac as similar in some ways to fishing. There is a reason we call the art of casting a line into the water "fishing" and not "Catching".

A skilled fisherman doesn't just go anywhere into the ocean and start randomly casting their line in all directions and hope a fish finally sees the bait(and the fish also wants that bait and strikes at that bait).

A skilled fisherman may look at the weather conditions(In the past has fishing been productive in weather like this)?
In the past have the fish liked this particular bait better vs typical bait?
In the past have fish struck at my bait in this section of the ocean vs typical days?
What depth have fish in the past seemed to strike at my bait vs typical day?
In the past have fish seemed to strike at my bait at this time of day vs other times of day?.

...etc.

The more experienced the fisherman the more tools in the tackle box. Some days very few tools(lures--bait) will work.

Some days the fishing is great and we should fish all day and all night or until they quit biting.

Some days the fish simply are not biting. It is a great option to know we do not have to use all our bait and fish all day.


Continued Success

Good post 8OR9--I was getting ready to post this (or similar) link from MSN and noticed you beat me to it.

"...over two-thirds of blackjack tables on the Strip have shifted from 3:2 payouts to 6:5. Tables that pay out at 6:5 give the winning gambler $12 for every $10 bet as opposed to winning $15 in a 3:2 payout, Mehaffey explained.

Bets at the roulette tables on the Strip are also getting harder to win thanks to a triple-zero iteration of the game that favors the house rather than the gambler, per WSJ.
  ..."

Roulette Dealer: "Step right up folks--Now offering Triple-Zero roulette: More ways to win,...etc." 



Continued Success,

alrelax in original post of this thread:

"*...  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)..."

In Baccarat this sentence is so true: The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result.

As players we should look at wagers and think "is this a good-value buy(GVB)". If it is a GVB for that shoe in that spot then place the wager and not look back(Ok to always be evaluating our choices. However, we may still NOT win many of our Good-Value Bets).

Nor should we expect to win in a dominating ratio(e.g., win 8/11 or say 16/20 bets). It is a victory if we can only manage winning 6/11 placed wagers. 11/21 placed wagers,...etc). Its this same "tightness" in the great game of Bac that also makes it difficult to lose 8/11 or 16/20 placed wagers.
This is a good thing.

When one limits their bet placement to a good,better,best choice and selectively only choosing perceived "best" spots we will see our overall results as winning slightly more correct vs incorrect.
In other words always ask ourselves just before bet placemeent: Is this a good-value bet. We should be able to state WHY we are placing this bet right now. What makes it better than random.

We should be able to silently say in our minds eye: Im betting B or P because of: _________, or because of ___________ and _____________, or because of _________, _________, and _________ just occurred...etc.

I find it helpful to keep meticulous records and notes for review (re: bet selection) and what I was thinking before placing that bet(Win or lose). Often, I look back at a losing shoe and find very few if any wagers that I would have placed differently. Usually, my losing shoes will have my side losing 2-3 extra hands to atypical outcomes or abnormal series of events' continuance. However, I know across several shoes of only placing perceived "good-value" bets I will get the W (meaning +Net $) for the day.


Continued Success,

Hi Gizmotron--hope all is well.

Your statement: "They are unpredictable but at times they are coincidental."

Can you elaborate on that.
I view the word coincidental meaning in this context as: (results from chance despite being very unlikely,...etc) Do you mean something different?




Continued Success,

alrelax in orig post at beginning of this great thread(Great thoughts/comments everyone). Ill try to take one topice at a time.

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them?
------------------------------------------------------------------

Randomness:
"In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in information.[1][2] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.[note 1] For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is not haphazardness; it is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome. Randomness applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. "

IMO this is key: Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable[

Or my preferred way of saying that last sentence:
"but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is SLIGHTLY MORE predictable VS RANDOMLY GUESSING[ "

Our ability to use logic/deduction(reasoning) gives us a huge advantage when trying to guess one more correct than incorrect. My thinking is: The Laws Of Probability (LOP) are like a cloud hovering always above the table (its always there suggesting what will happen across hundreds of outcomes).

However, just as certain types of clouds can suggest rain(or not rain) within the next hour. We can use these (LOP) clouds to predict our (rain or not rain) at the table. In other words if we see a cloud overhead and also know the meteorologist has stated 60% probability of rain. Then we wait until we start feeling just a slight moisture on our arm so lightly that we can only sense it on our arm hair---THAT is the moment we should place our bet on rain.

Some players invert this order of events and think: I shall bet for rain every hand and thus it shall start raining (eventually).


Continued Success,

re: #2 John Gates from above from 7 Biggest Baccarat Legends.

"...Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.  ..."

    When I first read that I thought: "is this Gates guy just a degenerate gambler." ??
Then I had a second thought and concluded (maybe or maybe not): Maybe he knew something about (Falling speed of raindrops) that his opponent didn't know. Maybe he knew that he knew more overall knowledge about falling raindrops than his opponent. So it may have actually been "A Good-Value Bet" for Gates.
At the casino as well as in life: There are good-value/bad-value bets. In other words what is the risk vs reward or what is the potential.

This thought led to another thought (I've been doing a lot of thinking lately).
I perceive that in a casino there are numerous wagering opportunities across the many games where a Good-Value Bet could be found more often vs only looking at the single bac shoe we are playing. I often ponder if we could maybe find other Non-Baccarat betting opportunities by simply strolling through the table pit and note the tote boards at various other games. Streak or anti-streak or whatever else you feel is a good trigger.
This may be more applicable at small casinos where they may only have 1-2 Bac tables but 20-30 other games always in play.
Simply walk through the pit/note the most recent outcomes at a particular game and making a couple attempts.

I feel most certain that Mr. Gates could find a good betting opportunity (Win or lose some bets are still a good-value buy).

Thoughts?

Thx Asym for all the details /examples.

I like your utilization of 7 event cycles.


In your post #796 above.

as:

"...2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.  ..."

re: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.






Continue On My Friend,

As an addendum to Gizmotron post #4 above:

"We don't stop playing because we get old, we get old because we stop playing"
Doyle Brunson, RIP.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/golf/poker-icon-doyle-brunson-dies-at-89-years-old/ar-AA1bbr59?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77fd04dfea1f4d3ea763ada19bf9d2bf&ei=11

7 Biggest Baccarat Legends--Scroll to the bottom for the link. Thanks for viewing.kfb

The following is an excerpt from #2 John Gates:

"...His wife, Dellora, wasn't thrilled about these marathon poker sessions. But John kept diamonds in his vest pocket and gave them to Dellora to calm her down and keep his poker games going.

Gates once wagered $70,000 on a horse race in England and won $600,000 dollars. The story was exaggerated to claim that he won $1 million, which only furthered his reputation as Mr. Bet-a-Million.

Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.   ..."



https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/7-biggest-baccarat-legends/

The volatility at the Bac table is easier to navigate.

May 8,2023

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-08/Bitcoin-crashes-below-27-400-wiping-60-billion-from-the-crypto-market-cap.html

I could possibly consider playing online "Live" dealer Bac (Where we can view dealer cutting/dealing live.
Has anybody played Bac in this manner??? Thoughts/ Opinions ?? Thx in advance.


Live Casino Online - Best Live Dealer Casinos & Games May 2023

Good read /thx alrelax. Several very important topics that we probably can't do justice by discussing as a group or within the same essay.

A couple important ones I will parse out below.

"...Because if you use sections, limiting the amount of hands you play, complete disorder is impossible 100% of the time. Therefore, by limiting your wagered hands and time played you get pathways for possibilities and probabilities to positive results for some of your bets.  ..."

    limiting the amount of hands you play
Personally, I don't think the game(or any game with a written-in H.E.) can be regularly defeated wagering every single hand. Even if we could there simply is no reason to battle that level of Variance. In other words, there are good, better, and best spots to place our wager. 

    complete disorder is impossible 100% of the time
This characteristic in Bac and other similar card games (where the marbles are not placed back into the jar), is why we can use concepts such as (Regression to the Mean and Approaching of Limits), as just a couple tools of many, that can help us.

Unlike dice games where every outcome always has at least a tiny potential to show on every single outcome into perpetuity.
When I'm at the Bac table I constantly ask myself what is Not-As-Probable to happen.
I find it helpful to think of the Less-Likely Outcome as a guide for when/where to wager on the More-Likely Outcome. This thought process along with What-Is-This-Shoe-Producing coupled with What-Does-The-Laws Of Probability suggest should happen seem to assist in achieving a higher hit rate.

As alrelax has mentioned 00s of times in other posts. We sometimes erroneously wager on what we desire instead of what is most probable based on the above criteria.

More later as I will parse out a couple more topics from the original post that I find helpful/very important.



Continued Success,

Thx for TR(session report). The bad along with the good.

"...Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. ..."



When I finish a shoe or a multi-shoe session and look back. I often find the reason I didn't win a net+ isn't always because of a subpar hit rate (guessed more wrong vs right). It was because I didn't win the amount I should have on the winning steaks, or winning shoes. It was that one or two key presses that missed and would have returned a significant profit vs Now Im drawn down even further.

As players we often beat ourselves up for the losing (or subpar) sessions and pat ourselves on the back for the winning sessions when both types of sessions boiled down to just one or two key decisions. A skilled player will win just slightly more than 50% of these key-decision hands (at least for me Im not out there consistently winning 25/30 consec decisions,...etc).

One more reason Im an advocate for a prospro. I'm losing less when I'm missing and significantly more when I guess that key-decision correct. Sometimes on my winning sessions I actually guessed more incorrect but won 3-4 consecutive presses that overwhelmed the subpar guess rate.
This bust or boom approach isn't for everyone, but I feel in the long run most would make a greater NET.

IMO the "bust" is only dangerous if one depends on the "boom"..


Thx again for the TR (& for always reporting the neg as well as the pos).


Continued Success,