There are two schools of thought pertaining to virtual losses.

1. Virtual losses make no difference. All real wagers will result in a 50/50 win loss ratio minus the house edge of the game. No stop bet trigger or amount of virtual losses will over come the mathematical expectation.

2. Virtual losses are the same as real losses and allow the bettor to avoid the loss of real money and increase profits as the win rate will climb above 50%.


I am enrolled in the first school, but I do peer over the fence and watch school 2. Some of my play is RTM related. This RTM effect does fall under the shadow of the Gambler's Fallacy. It is the same shadow that is cast upon virtual losses. The problem with the virtual loss conversation is that nobody ever talks about virtual wins. Virtual losses are always presented as a system that has 100% accuracy of predicting when a series of losses will occur. But that is impossible. It is a 50/50 proposition.

Nobody talks about what to do when the first bet after a stop bet trigger is a virtual win. Do you wait until the virtual losses out number the virtual wins? How often is your play indefinitely suspended as the virtual wins continue to out number the virtual losses?

A stop bet trigger doesn't prevent 9 or more LIAR. It only changes the structure of your nemesis pattern. I'd like to be on the record saying a stop bet trigger after X amount of losses is a great tool. Better to take a deep mental breath after 4 or 5 losses before you re-bet into another 4 or 5 consecutive losses than to continuously make 9+ losing bets in a row. Losing bets adversely affect the psyche, taking a breather after a handful of consecutive losses is a good way to avoid gambler's tilt. 

All bet selections are equal. Some say that this or that bet selection is a road to ruin. They are all the same. Bet P or B, OLD or FLD, TBL or OTBL. Record the win loss strings. Compare them, they are the same. Mix them up in a hat and draw one out, it will be impossible to determine which bet selection it belongs too. All bet selections lose 4 in a row, all of em lose 9 in a row just as often as each other bet selection. Play long enough and you will see winning and losing streaks for any bet selection larger than 12 in a row. In fact, given enough time, you will see any and every bet selection lose and win as many times in a row as the longest streak of B or P you've ever witnessed.

Every bet selection can be compared to the B and P outcomes of any shoe. They are the most easily recognized. I've seen 9 Banker followed by 1 Player followed by 9 more Banker. This represents the ability of any bet selection to lose 9 in a row. Possibly 6 virtual losses, only to win once, and then lose 9 more times in a row.

Consider the first 10 decisions of any and every shoe. They represent 10 consecutive losses of some bet selection. Bet selections aren't limited to OLD FLD TBL OTBL PLAYER or BANKER only. They can be any combination of decisions. After all OTBL is nothing more than FLD until 1 win then switch to OLD for one win and then switch back to FLD for one win etc.

IMO the virtual loss game can save you from yourself, but it cannot change the math of the game. It will change your nemesis pattern, but it will not reduce the number of times you lose 6,8, or even 10 in a row.

As for the deleted posts of alrelax.... I dunno, some of it was off topic, some of it absurd (umpteen times...), part of it was offensive or at least antagonistic, and a great deal of it was born of a misunderstanding of the post(s) he was attempting to respond to.

HBS

5 winning shoes out of 20? What's a winning shoe, just a shoe where he hits a few runs of 4 and 5? that overcome his losses on the 1's and 2's? What's his starting bankroll? The 20u he has displayed in green? surely not. Does he only bet on P runs? What about all the lost units in commission on a failed progression on Banker? How does switching shoes make a difference?

I can see why he got laughed off a forum. This is absolute rubbish. The whole presentation is a mess. Why are there dice in the frame? What's with switching to white chips in the middle of his illustration? Why does he have three separate betting places for B and P on his cardboard for a two man team approach? Why is he stacking chips on his losing bet instead of raking it off like he is supposed to? How could he have been winning with this method for months and still need to check his notes on how much to bet on each hand? How did he not realize the opposing bet does nothing?

Ima say no, the method does not work. Two reasons. 1. No mechanical method works, the stop loss after 20 decisions isn't making a difference. 2. I just glanced through some of my bac cards, and even though some of them open up heavy FLD, most of the runs are 3 and 4 with a spattering of 5's. Profitable, but not the 40u this guys is talking about. A couple have streaks 6 or 8 early in the shoe, but they are surrounded by several singles and doubles, making the long run a recoup of lost units more than a gain of profit. And the rest of the shoes are just straight up an accumulation of losses in the first 20 hands.

HBS

WBK,

I think its much less than 1%. I have no data to back up my assumptions, accept maybe the existence of so many casinos and so many gamblers anonymous meetings.

I think maybe 1 in 1,000 people actually lose just the expected amount of appropriate HE against their action or only a few standard deviations from it.

I think 1 in 10,000 lose less than they should according to the appropriate HE against their action, but are still down over all.

I think 1 in 100,000 are even or only up a tiny bit, but still down considering travel costs, food, tips etc.

I think 1 in 1,000,000 are up for a lifetime, but not a significant amount, or if it is a significant amount its from a big hit and they aren't spending much time if any in a casino anymore.

I think 1 in 10,000,000 are up a decent amount for a lifetime, continue to gamble, win and lose, but maintain a positive net winning.

I think 1 in 100,000,000 can consistently win, either from pure luck or skill, and are increasing their net gain as time goes on.

You get my drift. No research in the numbers, just a pattern of 1% of 1% and then 1% of that etc. It's got to be a rare occurrence. Equally as rare as someone born with nothing, no family money, and achieving $100 millionaire status.

HBS

Hey Soxfan,

Alright, I can dig that. If you had strong success winning 3u with a 100u BR and a max draw down of only about a third of that then winning only 1u should be even easier. Well, maybe not easier, but successful more often.

Thanks for your response.

HBS

Rolex,

First off, I may have inadvertently crossed a line outwardly speculating about your personal financial level. I don't blame myself much, it wasn't an easy line to see. Even now you continue to post winnings of 30 to 60k. Speculating further, I'm would imagine there are many instances of you having large sums of winnings in your pocket. In reference to the 30k I was talking about in roulette winnings that you say was baccarat winnings....you know, its your money, in your pocket at your IT meeting. I cannot say with certainty where it came from. However, I came across the story, reading threads written by you relating to roulette. About making wagers before the croupier put the ball in motion, winning big for several sessions and then going back only to have croupiers switched out that you later suspected were exerting control over the outcome and intentionally made you lose it all back. This being a thread where you are explaining how the casinos cheated you early in your gambling career.

But it doesn't really matter where the money came from or how much it was. You and your friend could have been talking about turning 1 mil into 10 mil and just related it to the 100k for a matter of simplicity.

As for believing what people say on the internet without a face to face meeting. My choices are limited. Not much I can do accept take it at face value and use the information for discussion purposes and just keep a mental check that the information is consistent. This I do with everything I read on the internet, including what you write, GR8, and the rest. There is no risk to myself here. I'm not investing any real capital into any internet claims.

Pushing on to the meat of the conversation. Its not the dollar amount but the number of units. It seems the unit size is $25 with a BR of 4000 units. With a win goal of just 40 units a day. No mention of a daily BR, but the OP implies the full 100k is in play at all sessions to insure a 1k win. This is a very large "spread". Certainly seems to me to be more than sufficient to ride out the shifts in variance not in your bet selections favor, as long as the bettor himself doesn't balloon their MM out of control.

Still, no mechanical method will work. Composure ( discipline and patience ) is paramount in deploying the proper MM. And the proper MM is what it is all about. All bet selections being considered equal according to the math. I'm not sure what your pattern capturing technique is, but I can't imagine it's performance being better than 50/50. We've already gone over your column approach, its performance is no different than any other bet sequence of equal length.

I don't know what point of interest you want to talk about. There are two things I want to discuss. Partners and Progressions.

I think the whole partner idea is the biggest gamble. The worst bet. It will take someone you can trust. These people tend to be friends, friends make the worst enemies. Only someone you trust can con you. And money, unpredictably, does the strangest things to people.

Even if your partner does half the gambling, and comes up with half the BR. What happens when one of you starts out performing the other? The best one of the two of you will start to think they can do this themselves. One of you may start shaving off a few chips here and there. Maybe the guy pulling all the weight thinks he deserves it, maybe the lagger thinks the other guy can continue to take up his slack plus an added unit or two per night. Maybe one of you wrongly suspects the other of cheating so starts cheating themselves. Maybe someone starts pocketing everything over 1k.

Selfish greed and covetous thoughts are in 99.99 percent of the population, maybe more. It's very very rare person that truly isn't concerned about someone elses belongings. Especially money. A lot of times it doesn't even manifest itself until the object of their desire is staring them in the face. My favorite quote about money comes from Danny Devito in Heist with Gene Hackman. " I know you need money, everybody needs money, that's why they call it money"

Have you considered the problems a partner can cause? Have you considered finding a $10 game and using 40k for a 4000u BR. Is it all about a non bettor watching your composure and warning you when you reach gamblers tilt? Will you be receptive to constructive criticism? Will your partner?

BTW big difference between going to work 330 days a year and getting guaranteed compensation either by the hour or in the form of a salary and going to a casino and playing a game of chance. You might get screwed out of some money owed you by an employer, but your not going to risk a year, month or even a weeks pay everyday you show up for work.

Progressions.
Aside from the negative progressions every MM is that isn't flat betting. Have you considered just chipping up after each 4000 units won? Instead of grinding out the same 2k every day for a year, once you reach 8000u divide by two and reduce it to a 4000u BR once again and grind out the same number of units daily but with a dollar value of 4000. This will bring your 1mil win goal in sight much faster. Allow you to propel beyond it with increasing acceleration. And once you hit 600k, grinding out 2k a day isn't going to have the same feeling of accomplishment that it did when you only had 200k. It becomes a smaller and smaller percentage as you successfully continue to win.

HBS

I agree with alrelax. It is impossible to guarantee a win every day. Let alone a specific dollar amount. IMPOSSIBLE. It's called gambling. It is not called "sure thing".

Since when did the dollar amount of a bankroll start guaranteeing success at the tables? The question needs to broken down into units. But is not necessary as it is impossible to guarantee a specific unit win every day.

Greenguy proposes 20 bankrolls with a daily win goal of 10%. This imo is a modest win goal, and even though it is still 10% short of the desired 1k, it still can't be guaranteed daily. But I really do like the idea of creating 20 bankrolls with the 100k.

Rolex, I find it hard to believe you can't come up with 100k by yourself. Aside from the fat stack of money in your picture I've read where you have won 1k per day every day for a week. (maybe longer) I'm also pretty sure I've read a story about you at an IT meeting with 30k in your pocket from roulette. Plus VIP rooms, gambling trips across several countries and an ocean. I find it hard to believe you can't scrap together 100k. ESPECIALLY, with the confidence that you can turn 100k into ten times that amount in one year. Just like Missmusibat implies. Turn 10k into 100k and then 100k into 1 mil.

Furthermore, I find it hard to believe you even thinking along the lines that more money equals guaranteed success at the tables. It's all about your MM (an adept execution of a personally modified lab) and a stable bet selection. 2k a day whether its 80 $25 units or 100 $20 units only adds up to 730,000. I find it hard to believe you missed that detail. In addition, you can't play 365 days out of the year, I guess a partner could cut that in half, however you win goal still has to be nearly 3k per day.

Your whole response to this thread is baffling. I wouldn't expect you at all to respond to it, and if you did, I would have bet money your post would have been the opposite of what it is.

Noregret, you offer a win goal of 5% with a 40k buy in. To me this translates into 80 $500 units. It can be not easy, but quick, to win two 2u bets, or one 3u bet and a 1u bet follow up. But from experience it is not uncommon to be down 75% of your buy in. Trying to scratch back to even is not a comfortable experience. Even less comfortable is the fact that you only have 1.5 BR left if you bust the 40k. But I do agree, one can go a long time with a win goal of 5%.

Soxfan, I'm perplexed by your response as well. I know you have a career BR of a couple thousand units. I know you adhere to the importance of having a large BR of career units. Why would you limit this one to a tiny 100u? And how would you employ a positive progression with 1k base units. Your first win in a parlay attempt would be your win goal. Do you stay and risk it for triple your win goal? I also know that you are aware, and expect to bust out your progression attempts periodically. Even if you won 1k per day for 200 days straight, busting out the 100k BR on day 201 only yields you an average of $500 per day.


I truly surprised this wasn't a thread full of one word responses. And that word would be "No"


HBS

Hey GR8,

Pretty sure I read where you have lowered your unit size. I'm not concerned with its value but I was wondering if you have increased your unit win goal.

Are you still trying to net the same dollar amount? Or have you like halved your unit size but only increased your win goal from 12 to 15 or 18? Or are you still aiming for 12 units?

HBS

um, why the deleted posts?

HBS

GR8,

Yeah, I read it either before or after my last trip. You are absolutely right about knowing when to walk. I knew I was pushing it. Pretty much one of the top 'no nos'. I could have left after 30min with 15u. Could have left several, several times with 17 to 19 units. I was really playing with fire there.

I recently sat next to a bettor that was doing very well. Two stacks of reds and 1.5 stacks of green. They turned to the bettor next to them and said " I'm leaving as soon as I get this" and indicated two equal stacks of greens. At that moment, I thought to myself, "uh oh, famous last words". They started betting a bit aggressively, eager to win. Didn't work out. I was glad to see them leave with still 1/2 of one stack of greens left. I'm pretty sure they were still up for the evening. I take no joy in anyone's distress, glad I didn't witness a full fledged bust out.

Glad I didn't do it to myself either. I knew better.

HBS

So, this thread has turned into a trip report blog of sorts.

Well, my exit strategy of hitting my win goal and continuing to bet didn't work well tonight. 4 times I hit 20u and 4 times I bet again and lost. I kept the pressure up to not to settle for anything less than 20u. Probably not the wisest thing to do. Confidence was high because my biggest draw down was 3u. Lost my first bet of 3u, and from there I stayed ahead the whole time. I did get back down to even several times, but I didn't let it get to me.

About 4 hours. 1.5 shoes. +20u profit after 2u in tips.

Final bet was 4u on Player. Player has six and will stand and banker gets a three card 6. Tie, Argh. I stay up for 4u. Player gets a three card 7 and then Banker gets a three card 7. Tie again! ARGH! Finally Player wins with a three card 9. Yay. I'm not betting again. I'm taking my 20u and leaving.

I didn't go Thursday night, I had work at 630 am Friday. I didn't want to feel pressured to leave if I got caught in a marathon session with a deep draw down. Not sure if I will go Saturday night, but I want to.

HBS

I can see of no viable way to pre order the cards to confound a table of bettors. Unless they all bet the same exact way together.

I can see pre ordering the cards to counter 1 bettor, but you are taking a risk he/she doesn't change their bet selection.
It would have to be done on a hand by hand basis from the shoe, and that tactic doesn't involve special shuffling.

I can't imagine there is any benefit in waiting for an abundance of low or high cards to either bet P or B. The change in the house edge is infinitesimal. I can't see bettors losing more than usual just because the house edge on any bet approaches 0.00. A 50/50 game still means you win and lose half your bets. Plus variance is still alive and kicking.

How could one recognize an artificial surplus of P doubles over a natural occurrence of P doubles? How would the artificial thwart the bettor any more successfully than a natural occurrence? You certainly can't keep this imbalance going, or you form a pattern, and people will catch it, bet it and win it.

Besides, regardless of which side wins some things remain the same. Combined singles vs runs for instance. If B is suppressed and P is doubling more often, together one compensates for the other. I just don't see any pre order shuffle being strategic for the casino.

HBS

Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on August 03, 2015, 03:13:17 AM
HBS, I play with real money. I backup my talk with PLAY with REAL MONEY! I don't know why we all squabble with each other. We can all agree that there isn't a system on earth that can win EVERY shoe. No way, no how.....You would need a table with UNLIMITED spread and you would need MILLIONS of dollars and you could simply bet BANKER or PLAYER to come in and martingale it....That is a fairy tale and does not exist so no need to talk about it.....

I keep seeing the same stuff re-hashed time after time after time..................

I don't know why im even replying.....? i guess its sunday night and im bored.

I will say this about ALRELAX. I have spoke to him a few times at length and I think his a good guy and means well. He went OUT OF HIS WAY and contacted a host at foxwoods who could accommodate me for a weekend. How many people would do that for a stranger they spoke to a few times?

Al is a good guy. He means well. He says what he thinks and that's ok. Is his way the RIGHT way? The ONLY way? HELLLLLLLLLLLL nooooooooooooo. There is NO RIGHT or WRONG way. We all have different likes, dislikes, financial issues, tolerances, etc etc etc............

Its like the stock market. I know guys who have millions, yet if they lose 10-20k they won't SLEEP for 1-2 days! They are SICK. mentally they can't handle the stress of losing. It eats them up inside. the brain doesn't like losing....

No system is a one fit all. Just like a diet. No diet, NOT ONE will work for everyone. everyones bodies reacts to different foods, activities, and processes it differently. Gambling is the same thing, systems are the same thing. Holy smokes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyways, al plans on being in Foxwoods in a few months and I plan on meeting him and see how he plays and see if he bets like he does, gets the perks he claims, etc etc. Does it matter? Not really, I like al. But, I don't think his a BS'er....I think his the real deal based on the host I spoke to.......

can't we all just get along?

I play with real money too. Maybe not large sums of money like some. "real money" But it isn't 10 pence a hand online either. I play B&M only. There is little one can do to prove it one way or the other online though.

A lot of old things get brought back up. I expect some of it is by new players, or old players make 'new to them' discoveries. I'm sure some stuff gets forgotten. And then there is always 'hope'. That driving force that makes you go back to the casino and hope to win this time, makes you push out one more bet, increase your bet beyond your comfort zone. That has you go over some old information hoping you find something everyone has missed. It's just part of human nature.

I find alrelax handles himself pretty well in the face of constantly being attacked for every thread he starts. I don't know the past history he has had with other members of this board, but he certainly handles it 100% better than I would. He doesn't seem to be full of malice or intentionally misleading anyone down the wrong path.

It seems like he is going out of his way to accommodate you on your next gambling trip. I agree, few would put forth the effort. He doesn't come across as a BSer to me either. I guess you are going to find out, or have already found out first hand.

I'll be interested in a trip report. Not for proof, but as a nice read. I enjoy reading the experience of others.

HBS

Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on August 02, 2015, 10:05:06 PM
No SHITTTTTTTTTTT. You can have any system and of course it will lose. Who cares if it loses to natural 9 or 1-0? A loss is a loss. Reading more into it is LUDICROUS!
I wish we could get everyone together at one casino here in the USA and have a convention at the tables. God I would love it! The stories you could talk about for years and years (if anyone actually played with REAL MONEY THAT IS!).....

I find it amusing the go to insult from frustration is "...you've never even set foot in a casino..."

I am back to diligently recording the B and P decisions I witness. I'm always asked by another player, as they lean over and peer at my card what the last score was. I never know, cause I neither care nor record it. They always look at me perplexed that I'm not keeping score. I always wonder why someone who is so concerned about the score NEVER KEEPS SCORE. FFS.

As interesting as it would be to have all these personalities meet in one place, I doubt there could ever be an agreement on where. It would have to be a non Indian casino, with a live dealer, hand shuffled cards, a non mechanical shoe, at a real table. I doubt you could even get 7 to fill up a mini table, however if enough showed up for a full size table with 14 seats. That would be very entertaining indeed.

I'm in. If you will let me borrow some real money to play with. [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley]

HBS

Alrelax,

I looked up Buttersworth. Read some stuff about him against Indian reservation bingo halls. Unclear what his motivations were, can't say I'm a fan of wanting to arrest non Indians from gambling on reservations. Which is the same as me gambling in another country. It's not illegal. Plus Florida has dog racing tracks and Jai Alai gambling, the latter of which has been suspected of being fixed. I've gambled there before and don't like it. No mention of Buttersworth vs the gambling industry in his state, just against the Indians doing it.

I'm sure it's all about regulation and taxes. And less of a moral high ground. I saw a picture of Chief I cheat you's house by the ocean. Sure I agree, he doesn't need a 9million dollar jet. I imagine the management companies were rampant with corruption too. His 12million a year seems unnecessary as the Indian citizens, who are supposed to be benefiting from the revenue surely aren't getting anything except pocket change.

It is a fine example of what self regulation produces.

Personally, I'm not against reservations having full fledged casinos. But, if they are open to US citizens, on land fully encompassed by US soil, then a separate entity of NON Indians, a US gaming commission, should be regulating the action. Making sure all the games are fair. Cards, dice, slots etc.

BTW, the best course of action would be to allow full fledged gambling in Florida, thus cutting off the need for US citizens to go on a tax free reservation.

HBS

Ah, I can't believe you breathed life into this thread.

I have this conversation because of my gambling experience and understanding percentages and random with local people about the weather all the time. The weather is hard to predict. So when it says only 20% chance of rain, and then it rains, you should hear these people go on and on how it shouldn't be raining. It was only a 20% chance. The weatherman is an unintelligent blah blah blah. I have to point out to them that 20% is still a chance. It didn't say 0% chance of rain. It still has a 1 in 5 chance to rain, and that's a relatively good chance. Plus it isn't raining across the entire state, it is not like a giant thunderstorm the size of the entire state is rolling in dropping 5 inches of rain. (not every shoe in the house is simultaneously defying a 77% chance)

I try not to get hung up in the score. It means nothing. The end result is all that matters. It's got to be selective memory. Do you recall all the times you pulled an 9 vs the other sides 8? Do you really think you are on the losing side of this wager more than 50% of the time? Does management come down and accuse of cheating or reshuffle the deck when your side has monkey duece and pulls a monkey for a total of two, and the other side has nine three for a total of two and pulls a nine for a total of 1, and you win with that 2?

Plus it makes no sense for the casino to try and cheat back your win goal right before you leave and award the drunk guy next to you several times that amount. When he would be the easy target, the guy who doesn't understand the draw rules.

It's just like the dealers saying Player shouldn't win by 12 decisions, Banker has the advantage. It isn't that strong of an advantage, it is very slight, and yet Player still streaks to 20 as well. All bet selections can be compared to a long streak. Sometimes they are going to win again and again and again and not collect an equal amount of losses any time soon in the same manner, and other times they are going to lose and lose and lose and not recover an equal amount of wins any time soon in the same manner.

It's just part of random. You play it long enough and you will see its extremes. If you don't ever see the extremes of random, over a very long (don't ask how long) period of time, then your not playing a random game.

The very same thing happened to me the other night. I expect my side to win, it's not doubled, or singled or hit the 3h or whatever for like 5or 6 attempts and Player gets 6 and stands and banker gets 7 no draw. Or worse! I'm on Banker a bunch, with a 4 5 or 6, and the Player keeps pulling a non draw card and winning by 1. If not outright drawing a N8 or N9 to begin with. And my comeback was betting against the table and my side winning by 1 and the very low end of the spectrum. 1-0 or 2-1. The whole table moaning and groaning as my side gets a crappy draw but there side always getting reduced from a 3 or less.

Of course all of this is part of my non-fiction novel according to wewin222 as I'm actually part of global casino management.
FACT!!!  [smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley]

Let me say, I also would have some apprehension about playing at a terminal if I couldn't see the shoe, or worse, the shoe was actually a continuous shuffle machine. I can't see how a card reader would be necessary in a shuffle machine but even if there was one. Once the player cuts the cards it changes the order. It also changes the value of the burn card, which again changes the order.

HBS