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Messages - KungFuBac

#1
What Are the Side Bets in Baccarat:
41+ Side Bet Options Explained.

I found this interesting as some of these I've never seen on a layout. Most of my layouts only have 4-6 bonus bets.

https://baccarattraining.com/how-to-play/side-bets
#2
Thanks for elaborate explanation for how you play.



alrelax:

"... side bets wagered, but both sides (P and B side bets) and pretty much consistently.

The following sides the shoe produced:

4th hand was a beautiful 3 card 9-9 Tie for Heavenly 9s, 75:1

4 Panda 8s
3 Fortune 7s
8 3 card 9s for Heavenly 9s
1 3 card 9-9 tie Heavenly 9 75:1
4 3 card 9-0 dragon bonuses 30:1
2 fortune 7 back-to-back
2 panda 8s back-to-back

At least 10 wins by 7 points for dragon bonuses
At least 8 wins by 8 points for dragon bonuses
   ..."


Great shoe indeed.
42 Wins on Bonus Bets alone. I would think that is a bit of an outlier. Of course one would have to be betting for them on every hand (to catch all of them). Im guessing you caught all of them.

?Did I understand you correctly that you also wager for "BOTH" P and B on each hand as well?

Thx in advance.
#3
Hi Asym and thx.
Can you elaborate a little more on the following:

"...Yet, "long" isolated W situations are way more probable to be intertwined by isolated Ls, so in essence the only real losing sequence is anything like as WLLWLL...

Notice that by falsifying the best randomness definition ever made in the history of probability field (RVM) and according to MvS studies, bac successions are affected by a kind of unrandomness (or instrinsic defects of a finite dependent bac card distributions) capable to get a full value of what is more likely to happen (W clusters and/or L isolated situations) as opposed to what could virtually happen at a 0.5068/0.4932 dynamically proposition...."



Thx in advance,
#4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 25, 2026, 03:03:08 PM
Thx for post.

Yes, I play alot of shoes and set in front of many hands(I just don't wager on many).

*I play with a man that plays similar to Alrelax (I perceive). Though I've never played with or met alrelax. So just from what he posts/my perception(I may be incorrect).

This fellow bac mate doesn't cover ALL the bonus bets at once. However, he wagers on one or two bonus bets once thewy have been triggered,  at the same time, along with a base bet(P or B). He is very disciplined and presses back and forth with winnings from either (bonus bets--base bets) and always bets a little more on whatever just hit(P,B, Panda8,Fortune7,...etc). In other words he tries to use the just-won monies to feed larger wagers.

Like me he feels that if something has been activated it is more probable to hit one more time(Vs an event that has never occurred in this shoe and to bet with the hypothesis it will now present "just for me" at this given moment of time).

**A couple days ago we had both played about 10hours that day and the past 6hours at the same two tables. It had been rough sailing for most of day.

I was up approx 500-600, and he was down 850(just after he had won a few hands in close proximity). We were both very tired and each had about a two hour drive in front of us(about 10pm). He stands up and tells the pit "color coming in", and I say out loud "we've got a quitter". We all laugh along with the pit boss and dealer laughing as they knew we had been there along time. As he stands up the dealer deals a bonus win on the panda 8.
My table mate  then says Ok Im back in and then adds: "I know Im probably going to regret this". In a matter of probably 20moins he hits two bonus bets (25:1, and 50:1), then a Fortune7 at 40:1. He jumps up and says Im gone(and whispers to me "I was down 850/closest to even I had been all day, and now Im up over $6K).

As he is waiting for the pit to verify the color up he then teases me: "You gotta bet the Fortune7". As he knows I seldom bet any bonus bets and only occasionally wager the F7 and typically only when Im at a critical pressed-up size/want to do a partial hedge on what I have in the wager,...etc.

I was glad for him. Sometimes Variance smiles up on us. This guy is a veteran player and has a solid money management system in place. I just don't care for the Variance involved as I have plenty volatility trying to navigate a simple base bet(P or B), lol.

I colored up a short time later still near the same balance.



Continued Success To All,

#5
I agree.
This scam was actually a little more sophisticated than most.


Continued Success,
KFB
#6
Even chance / Re: Even Chances made of 6 Streets
March 25, 2026, 05:05:13 AM
Thx Asym:

"...The double/double vs double/anything else ratio is 1:3, we'll wait for a situation where this ratio is moderately/heavily shifted towards the left (the strongest, the better), then starting to bet in order to get an isolated double apparition or isolated double sequence (isolated double correction).

That's one of the most "balanced" propositions we've found out in our long term trials...."


that's a good one. I think you will agree there are a couple (very similar & related) that are productive too.

The key for the above triggers (et al) similar ones is to have patience and wait for the set up. Some shoes may not have very many set ups. I perceive that's what gets most players is they simply can not stand to wait/just watch.


Just my opinion.
#7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 25, 2026, 04:56:37 AM
Asym quoting from above:

"..."Probably those who constantly win have learned to think that the HE is the least problem to face, yet we don't know a single successful player confiding that his/her main profit comes out from wagering the side bets."

And you are absolutely correct.  But si..."


I travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

     The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
     

Continued Success,

     
#8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 25, 2026, 04:45:56 AM
Good win /trip report. I do not see the pics you referenced*.

I like that you use the bonus bet wins to enable a larger base bet(P or B).

"...*The point where I took the picture, I already won 2 Panda 8s, 3 Fortune 7s, 2 three card 9-0s (wagering bankers plus dragon bonus), netting me greater than $8,000.

There were lots of dragon bonuses on both sides as well.  Bankers had several three card 8s with players having 0 or 1.  Both sides had over 25 dragon bonuses paying out between 2:1 and 10:1 consistently. The shoe ended with 5 Fortune 7s and 4 Panda 8s total. ..."


"with 5 Fortune 7s..."
     Im guessing you wager every hand for the Fortune7 to catch that many.

     I think this shoe was a bit of an outlier. Probability for a Fortune7 is (.02254) so approx 1:44 .



Continued Success To All,
#10
Link below. Key points from the article:

Eleven-player baccarat team executed sophisticated casino cheating scheme in Zurich
Hidden phone camera captured card sequence to predict baccarat shoe
Casino surveillance review exposed the scam after suspicious $180K win



https://www.casino.org/news/inside-the-180k-baccarat-cheating-plot-that-almost-fooled-a-zurich-casino/
#11
This will be interesting. I suspect we will see dozens more involved. Of course the NBA, NCAA, and most media will attempt to downplay all of this fraud. i recently saw several similar (betting on their games) cases at the collegiate level too.
#12
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 08, 2026, 10:51:20 PM
AsymBacGuy above in post 1490:

"...Variance is in direct relationship of the number of hands played (or observed) and not about time fragments, so as players we can easily expect many 1 hour losing sessions in a row and maybe a 24 hour session could be a terrific winning session not comparable with many 1 hour winning sessions.

So as long as we play with a verified long term advantage, we'll expect to win money regardless of the time sessions (and actual short term results) so the more we play and the more we win (in the exact same way casinos are confident to separate money from their customers' pockets)..."


Both phrases in BOLD are key in my opinion.

One needs to thoroughly understand the Variance for ones chosen bet selection.

The second phrase "Verified Long-Term Advantage" (meaning % > than casinos' written-in edge), is what we should base our other key metrics: bet size to buyin.

If one knows they have a verified advantage one should try to get as much money, as mathematically efficient (as a f(x) of advantage) as possible, as often as possible.

*I encourage all players to total all wagers placed and then divide their NET+$(or Net-$) into that. Most players do not realize the grand total of all the wagers they place in a single shoe. Pay attention to this tiny metric (%ratio), and what limit this tiny metric will tend to approach "as a Limit".

I observe many players dinking/donking at table min(& significantly less than optimal) based on their buyin(& known bankroll).
The main issue from wagering too small is one can't "move the needle" (i.e., bankroll). Yes one may delay busting a buyin with this dinking/donking.

However, the capacity to compound ones tiny advantage (i.e., vibrate), up through ones bankroll will swamp all those busted buyins.


Continued Success To All,
#13
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Timeless Lessons
March 08, 2026, 10:24:31 PM
alrelax in OP

"...There are basically 14 presentment trends,.."

Thx for listing.

I had not considered the "Ties Cut Ties Stick .
----------------------------------------------------------

AsymBacGuy above:

1 Side Heavy Building 3rd Card (Repetitive)
1 Side Extreme Reduction 3rd Card (Repetitive)



I think this has some merit as a benchmark(especially if used in tandem with other related triggers).


#14
Although I won't be wagering on this I do think Caesars will have a new owner in the near future(Or at least will go through another restructuring). However, IMO it will happen after 1/1/27.
So if I was forced to bet I would go NO.
?What say you?

According to Kalshi this is the proposition:  "If any company announces an agreement to acquire Caesars Entertainment Inc before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify.


https://cdcgaming.com/commentary/betting-on-a-new-caesar/
#15
Your Guide to Ladder Betting Online in 2026 (Link at the very bottom)

I do not wager sports in this manner. However, the headline caught my attention. As I play with a Baccarat player that does something similar to Ladder Betting on Bac. He will wager approx >=24-36 wagers on P or B(Not necessarily in same shoe).
If he is winning he does not do a ladder.

If he is down 1/2 of his total number of bets at anytime he will start wagering for a Panda at an amount that will make him even again.
If he draws down further he will then start wagering for Dragon7 at an amount that will make him even again.

If for example he has attempted to get even on Panda, then Dragon7, and still not even(But then sees the other bonus bet hit(when he wasn't on it), he will then switch to the bonus bet that just hit.
Again, always wagering so that a win will get him even. If he ever gets even he starts in again with only P or B.

Im not an advocate for (or against) this approach as I have never played like this.
He has only been doing this for about 6 months.
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https://readwrite.com/gambling/guides/ladder-betting/