Asym up above:

"...without a verified edge the player's bankroll will invariably decline "[/color
    The absolute most important thing a player can do is to confirm(or refute) if one has an advantage. Most importantly use that advantage(or disadvantage) for designing ones money mgmt. Bankroll, Buyin, and Betsize (along with progression, regression, and or flat) should be a function of this figure.

"...Paradoxically doing so they are lowering the math disadvantage by implementing the 'Bold strategy' that teaches us that at any EV- game the best move to adopt is betting large amounts in just one hand or very few hands..."

    IMO if one doesn't have a verified advantage then pressing(Pos pro) is the absolute worse thing a player can do as one is "turbocharging" the casinos' H.E. against ones self.
    My preference is to do a pospro so majority of Ls are at or near the Base Unit(BU).


Op at the top:
"..BANKROLL.  Your total funds set aside for gambling risk.

BUY-IN.  Your funds at risk you bring to the casino for each session. .."

*IMO one should start by clearing writing out ones specific objective/then work backward in how to hit said target win.

I feel one should have ratios that when one completes a win it is large enough to move the needle(meaning increase the overall bank roll).

What I often see (perceive as I don't ask players what is your objective): They have unrealistic expectation of bet size to buyin(e.g., buyin with 1k with a goal of making 5k,...etc). My perception is that most players do not really have a bankroll to support their buyin(Thus they seem to be in panic mode when they are approaching a bust). I bust a  buyin every 10-14 days of playing and kinda expect it based on the Variance I have chosen.

*Though I recently went on a 9-week tear without busting buyin(Very atypical). Three days later busted another one and had only made 19% of itself prior to bust.

I guess it all depends on each persons objective.



Continued Success,

Hi albalaha--good to see you posting again. A very interesting study across many hands. I will respond more later as I have not read all of this yet.

Q: Do you mostly play online or at live bac tables?
If mostly online are the hands dealt via live feed dealt from a live in-casino shoe?

alrelax in the post above:

"..1). ONE HAS TO ADDRESS THE "Quit when your ahead". True, but a real double edged sword to the maximum! You will stop your potential win if you automatically do, simple. In baccarat you must win and win well when you are winning..."

     My preference is to always quit when ahead. Versus the alternative: quit when behind.

"...In baccarat you must win and win well..."

     The last part is the secret sauce. In other words:
"Its not about how fast you win, its about how well you win fast."

It is my opinion one must use some form of compounding (intra pattern streaks, shoes, sessions, trips), as we will see comparable W streaks vs L streaks. Utilize a cutoff for L streaks and do not chicken out when Variance is matching our bet selection/compounding regime is swamping the inevitable L runs.


Continued Success To All,



                                     

I've always pondered why Fortune Tellers and Psychics didn't just go to the Baccarat tables and win the 200:1 bonus bet. Maybe do the Lottery for a $1 every time it exceeded a million.,...etc. No reason to waste time reading palms, tarrot cards,...etc for a small fee.


https://www.casino.org/news/star-casino-let-fortune-teller-gamble-800k-despite-400-income/

alrelax in OP:

"...Well, have not been for several weeks."

     Good to see you are playing again.

"...ith a 3 Card 9.

2Ps shown side by side on the Bead Plate (the top road).

Not shown.  Another P8, the 3rd one and it too was adjacent side by side to the other 2 shown.  Few hands later was the 3rd Fortune 7. 2 hands later was beautiful 3 Card 9-9 tie for a 75:1 pay out.  The very next hand was a 2 card 7-7 tie fir a 50:1 payout.

Finished session/trip around hand 50.   ..."


     Good play-by-play/liked the photos. Hopefully you quit when you were ahead.


Cheers,

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/las-vegas-casino-heavyweights-implore-congress-to-restore-gambling-loss-tax-deduction/

Hopefully our lawmakers will address this issue.


https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2025/12/12/trump-to-mull-ending-tax-on-sports-gambling-wins/

Hi Asym.
Good to see the forum is turned back on/great to see you posting again.
 
*I assumed you had been on a lengthy Bac trek before the forum shut down 2-3 weeks ago.
I kept getting a message similar to: Site no longer available, database error, or only seeing the (search topic) page,...etc.

Back to your post.

I like your statement:

"... C) second AS step

Once the first step loses, the second AS attempt will intervene.
Again, long streaks of winning or losing streaks are slight less likely to happen, mainly as 2/2 and 3+/3+ streaks cannot be "clustered/clustered" for long.."

     I find it helpful to view every shoe(& thus every pattern) from a perspective: What is the expected average and how far has this current shoe deviated(- or +). I view a shoe as a combination of patterns that are always trying to approach their respective expectations(& limits).

More later,

Good post Whatswhat.

Good post/info alrelax.

It seems like the NBA/ the media have been mostly silent over the past few days since the NBA, gambling, and crime syndicate story broke. IMO, what could go wrong.

This recent storyline was not too surprising.


NBA Sportsbook Partnerships
The NBA has established several partnerships with major sportsbooks to enhance fan engagement and promote sports betting. Here are the key partnerships:

Major Sportsbook Partners
FanDuel   2014, DraftKings 2019, BetMGM 2018, Caesars Sportsbook   2019, Fanatics   2023,

Partnership Highlights
Advertising Spend: Sportsbooks spent over $52 million on advertising during NBA games last season, showcasing the financial commitment to these partnerships.
Content Integration: DraftKings and FanDuel have rights to use NBA data and branding in their betting platforms.
____________________________________________________________________________

Not to be outdone the Major League Baseball responded on 10/26 with the following statement.

"...In the wake of the NBA's betting scandal, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred defended his league's business arrangements with gambling companies as a necessary tool to catch wrongdoers...."

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/mlb-commissioner-defends-sports-gambling-partnerships-for-the-crucial-data-they-offer/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The NCAA also stepped up(So not to be outdone).

"...NCAA athletes and staff will be allowed to bet on professional sports following a rule change that will take effect on November 1.

On October 22, the Division II and Division III management councils revealed that they had approved the rule change, following the Division I Administrative Committee's adoption of the change on October 8.

The rule applies only to professional sports like the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and WNBA.  ..."



https://cdcgaming.com/brief/college-athletes-to-be-allowed-to-bet-on-pro-sports-after-landmark-rule-change/

 

Asym from post 1408

"...Question #2.

Are really existing EV+ bets at baccarat?

Answer: 100% positive.

Most hands are hugely shifted towards one side or another, think about the higher two-card point scenarios that in turn are in strict relationship about the average card distribution...."


     The probability of hands being determined by just two cards, without drawing a fifth or sixth card, has been noted. Currently, and unfortunately, mid-hand wagering is not permitted. I think one potential bonus bet that would be wagered upon by many bonus bettors is one that would allow players to wager on the total number of cards revealed in the next hand. I would be interested (but only if the payout was close to probability).
My consideration has also been given to how the game might change if casinos permitted players to view each side's first card before placing additional bets. Predicting the first card may be more straightforward than estimating the value of subsequent cards such as the fifth or sixth, as those draws are functions of the initial card and the recipient side.

*Side Note.
     A couple years ago on one occasion at a table, a dealer mistakenly began to draw an extra card from the shoe, partially revealing it. Several players noticed what appeared to be an eight; we immediately indicated "No draw." The dealer consulted the pit boss regarding the error, who then asked if any players had seen the card. The players indicated they had not by nodding their heads left to right in unison, lol.  We then subsequently wagered for P in the next hand. The pit boss observed the situation without objection, then after the hand just looked at us and shook his head/ smiled.  We increased our wagers by approximately 2x base bet. LOL. I had a passing thought of pushing my stacks all in which would have been the optimum move. However, I didn't want to abuse the situation.


"...Of course we'll get more hands privileging the final win at B side than at P side, yet such situations move around more likely ranges, considered as "undetectable" by math experts...."

     An additional consideration relevant to the previous paragraph—and reflecting topics discussed by AsymBacGuy over the years—is that it may be possible to gain a slight edge by anticipating the outcome of the next hand, specifically the upcoming sequence of 4, 5, or 6 cards being wagered. From the standpoint of whether the Player is likely to draw a third card, this prediction is obviously influenced by the composition of the remaining total card pool. Therefore, as players, we are effectively forecasting the order in which the next group of 4, 5, or 6 cards will appear. The only certainty is that the next four cards will be dealt with in the following sequence: PBPB.

     
Mr. AsymBacGuy continues:

"...Maybe in the shoe we're playing at or at the two consecutive shoes we're facing a given situation will get us a couple of losing spots. No worries, itlr we'll get a robust edge to rely upon.
On the same token, a couple of more probable consecutive wins should be handled by a kind of caution, meaning that the third bettable spot could be avoided so preserving the actual profit.

Question #3.

How much is our edge at EV+ bets?

Say that most of the times and by considering BP hands as equal outcomes, our placed bets will take a 52/48 probability to win, so getting a -1.3% negative ROI at B bets and a +4% ROI at P bets.
Since B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 11.62% of the times, we know that even B bets are EV+ (on average) at the spots we decided to wager. ..."


     Q1    Asym how are you computing this "advantaged nearly 11.62%" in the above paragraph? Thx in advance.

"...Nonetheless, a super selected strategy waiting for some strong negative deviations to happen at back-to-back shoes will enlarge such values up to 60/40 or more, meaning that our bets will get up to a 3:2 probability to win.

    Q2   Asym  do you track >=2 consecutive shoes waiting for even stronger negative situations vs expectation for that specific event?

     I've considered whether tracking 5-6 consecutive shoes to spot extreme limits would be useful. On busy days, I might play for 8-12 hours over 4-7 shoes of 6-deck EZ Bac. Tracking every card is tedious, so I monitor only a few specific card values per shoe. A team could potentially watch for high EV+ opportunities, but I usually focus on playing the shoe in front of me. I find it helpful to stay in "anticipatory mode" watching for certain events to materialize. While rare events—like those with a probability of 9/16 per shoe (i.e, Improbable to show in any single shoe)—are unlikely in any single shoe, however, their Variance can still cause unpredictable streaks (or droughts). This is just my personal perspective and approach.


"...I've written many examples about that, the easiest is by considering consecutive BP doubles, the patterns' stereotype of symmetry...."
Test your shoes and check out how many back-to-back consecutive doubles came out in the form of 0 (no consecutive doubles), 1 (one consecutive double), 2 (two consecutive doubles) or 3 (three or more consecutive doubles)...."

     I concur with Asym. The interpretation of traditional doubles—often referred to as "terrible twos"—can offer valuable insights, particularly in doubles scenarios such as BBPP. Personally, I prefer to consider any occurrence of doubles as "terrific twos." The deductive reasoning used to assess the increasing improbabilities associated with doubles can equally be applied to other patterns. Many of these "other" patterns result from factors present at this critical juncture (i.e., Doubles), including historical outcomes.
     It is my opinion that one of the primary advantages for players is to base their wagering strategies on the averages and limits typically produced by an average shoe. Occasionally, there will indeed be outlier shoes that defy most statistical norms; however, these too are subject to certain boundaries. It is advisable to cease wagering against such anomaly-outlier shoes and exercise patience rather than attempting to capitalize on significant deviations. By the time it becomes evident that a shoe is intent on surpassing all odds, it may already be approaching its extreme statistical limits, for example, exceeding 2.5-3 standard deviations for a specific event.

*Side Note
I just returned from nine-day trip last week to a larger market. I prefer this market for its higher table max bets, eight-deck shoes, and multiple shoe options at each casino. etc. One session I played a shoe that begin with B26 P12. Several players, including kfb, increased their bets and experienced massive wins.

However, three participants in the early-B run lost all their most-recent winnings by betting against the streak near the B26-12 stage. The shoe continued running to approximately B38-14 before showing a slight shift toward Player in the latter stages. Two players (including that kfb fellow) avoided losses by reducing wager size and slowly decreasing larger pressed bets around the B26-12 point. The Banker side had produced multiple streaks exceeding six wins, including one streak of ten and another of seven consecutive wins. It was amazing as near this B26-12 scenario the three of the  (big-win-give-wins-back) players in unison said to each other: "You think P? Yeah lets go P", ...etc.
IMO it is best if we watch for a Turning of Events to actually start and then go with the Turn, if one so desire.
     
Asym continued:
"...
Then pretend to make a betting action after any distinct category had shown up once or two times in a row.
I'd guess you'll prefer to bet against clustered single categories...,..."


Thx AsymBacGuy for all your posts currently and through the years as I know it takes a lot of time /effort on your part.


May the wind always be at your back. kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy. I like your post on Players Edge up above in post#1408. I will respond more later when I have time to respond this fine post with proper justice.


May the wind always be at your back, kfb

Good post/comments.

I agree with most. I find it helpful to treat ones time at the table just as one would if your job was a daytrader in other investment markets. There are so many similarities. Mainly in regard to budgeting, goals, stop loss, and most importantly mental management. I do realize treating ones gaming as an investment or business is not for everyone. It could also removes the "fun" from the casino in my opinion. I realize some play for fun or get-away from the daily grind of life. There is not a thing wrong with that approach either.

Most Mistakes/Mistaken

1). Play too long
    I often play 8-12 hours of actual table time per day. This is actual time in front of a table. Not just hanging at the casino eating/drinking/chatting socially.

    One thing I've noticed is when Im getting tired I will accidentally place my wager on the wrong side of what I intended. I know I need to get on the road as Im mentally drained. what's interesting is I often win that bet,lol. I've wondered if my subconscious state was seeing things clearly(or just lucky). Either way I know Im too tired to be risking money.

2). Chasing losses

    IMO this is most players downfall/ the most common nemesis I see at the tables. It is my opinion Males have a little more difficulty with this as we are taught from an early age to win at all costs/never accept defeat. Sometimes retreat is a tactical option(In war and at the bac tables).

One needs to learn how to lose gracefully and just accept it as part of the game. Its no different then selecting the wrong stock or investment. We don't double down we simply exit that stock position and cut our losses. I see far too many players really beat themselves up mentally after a loss. I lose all the time and just accept it as part of the game.

3). Chasing a singular win
4). When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up
5). When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop
6). Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

    (6) This also depends on the type of wagers one primarily makes(e.g., even chance or highly volatile wagers).
IMO one should constantly look to compound their winnings into larger base bet and bankroll. Buyin will obviously be a function of the previous two(& table max allowed). Meaning don't increase anything when losing. Do increase winning Base Bets, Buyins, and Bankrolls. We never know if the winning streak will occur short-term(a run in one shoe), or long-term(across several shoes and session).

If one only wagers highly-volatile bonus bets then I would suggest keeping ones base bet as  a percent of buyin(So # of tries stays the same). Regardless of ones MM for wins it is important to never wager 100% of winnings back through. Put a certain % into an investment vehicle with a high intrinsic value(& completely removed from casino investments.


7). Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

    This is the whole ball game. Plus E.M.(Emotional or mental management).

#8).Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Best Defensive & Offensive

1). Keep game relatively short
2). Believing it will all change soon if you are 100% alert
3). Change your responses to be in control, you create what happens with your wagering and no one else does
4). Long term strength is M.M.M. applied and used as a protocol along
    I concur 100%


Continued Success,

Congrats to this sports bettor. That is certainly an adequate ROI on $50.

The power of compounding.
It works for Bac and other even-chance(ish) games too.
My preference is to do four compounds(i.e., five hits four compounds).


https://www.casino.org/news/louisiana-sports-bettor-turns-50-into-574925-on-six-leg-parlay/

The casino will likely try to settle with the victims for only $25--50 per. Meaning that's what they value our SS#, credit card#, personal identity, et al info.
Most people don't realize how often crime rings /identity theft syndicates (& individual perps) track and hack ones phone, cars, computers,...etc. One should always sue individually and not accept the class-action payout that is initially offered.



https://www.casino.org/news/another-las-vegas-casino-suffered-major-data-breach-in-january/