Link at bottom.

The short summary from anthony curtis las vegas advisor:

"...to encourage Canadian tourists to return to the city. The program, which runs through August 31, 2026, allows Canadians to pay for select hotel stays, beverages, and gaming at a 1-to-1 currency exchange rate (CAD to USD), offering a significant discount compared to current exchange rates. Key Details of the "Canada at Par" Program: Participating Properties: Circa Resort & Casino, the D Las Vegas, and Golden Gate Hotel & Casino. Duration: Valid from January 22, 2026, to August 31, 2026. Hotel Stays: Canadians can receive the "at par" rate at check-in, meaning the USD room rate is charged directly in CAD. Gaming: Guests can redeem up to CAD$500 in slot promotional play at a 1-to-1 value by visiting the Club One desk with a valid Canadian ID or passport   ..."


This could give our Canadian neighbors an opportunity. I play with two poker players that use to live near Detroit and would monitor the currency exchange rate daily. Often the true strength of a countries currency (compared with another countries currency strength) isn't stated accurately by the financial industry. They said often the currency exchange rates true benefit would be less than 1%. Even <1% could be very lucrative(doing it daily or every few days,...etc).


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forums/deals-comps-coupons/canada-at-par/page/1/#post-484147/

Tried-and-True Money Casino Gambling Management Techniques

I agree with most of the authors' suggestions.
re: Stop Loss and Stop Win.

Stop Loss:
Personally, I do not rebuy into the same shoe after busting a buyin. I do go get another buyin but will select a different shoe, go to different casino, maybe take a restroom break/walk around 15-20mins,...etc.

What is interesting is when I bust a buyin it seems I will bust another within a few shoes or days and often that second bust in close proximity will have a Net-(i.e., meaning it had not earned itself once).

Recently I had gone about 9 weeks without busting my buyin(very long for me). It busted and a short time later( a couple days later) it busted again with only a 19% win of itself. Most busts that are Net- I seem to at least have profits of 60%--80% prior to bust.

Stop Win: Personally I do not think we should have a Stop Win. Simply implement a trailing loss (similar to investing in a stock or precious metals,..etc). One never knows how long the current winning trend will last(shoes, days, weeks, months,..etc).



https://www.888casino.com/blog/gambling-management-tchniques

Good post/ I will quickly respond with some quick thoughts. Then respond/elaborate more at a later date.

For the most part many of the general statements above would be considered mostly accurate for the average(i.e., most typical) gambler. Meaning the gamer that wagers nearly all hands dealt, balls spun, dice tossed, every day, and continuously to perpetuity. This average gamer is the type that does not record data, doesn't study or try to improve ones skills, ...etc/ 20-30 years later is still at the skill level as year one. For this type of gamer I say most of the above assertions about ruin, h.e., ...etc are mostly accurate.

re: H.E. I agree with the above about how small H.E. add up. The same is true when the player has an edge. Even when a player does not always have a H.E. the player can still go on significantly long and massive winning streaks. Meaning prior to seeing the casinos' written-in edge start to show as (+) for them.

It is my opinion the player has many options and tools the casino does not possess. One main advantage for the player is the fact the casino must offer the game 24-7.

The player can play(or not play) as much or little as one desires.

The player can play very few (or many) hands.
Players can select only the hands more favorable to the player.
Players select how much to wager in each spot and the casinos' only option is to match it.
A player should think of the casino as a robot that's only allowed to match our move--this alone gives us many favorable options. If it wasn't for low table max bets a larger-funded player could bust the casino(especially if one knew how much liquid assets the casino could access quickly).


IMO one of the main advantages the casino has is the option to select(limit) the table max bet. If it wasn't for the casino limiting this(Tmax) I perceive we would see many of the poorly managed casinos go bust. Just like the players do that exhibit poor money management skills.

More later /have a good week.kfb

20 College Basketball Players Indicted in Federal Point-Shaving Case

Who could have seen this coming? Stay tuned to this story as more indictments are in the pipeline.

Key points to story: "...  U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania on Thursday announced the indictments of 20 recent men's college basketball players from 17 schools for allegedly attempting to fix games via performance manipulation in the 2023–24 and '24–25 seasons. Officials say 39 players from 17 teams attempted to fix 29 games. The feds also filed charges against six other people associated with the scheme, including former NBA player and college standout Antonio Blakeney and individuals who worked as personal trainers or AAU coaches. ..."

20 College Basketball Players Indicted in Federal Point-Shaving Case

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/20-college-basketball-players-indicted-in-federal-point-shaving-case

Hi Asym.

"...Obviously when in doubt betting towards the deviations will be a minor mistake than wagering to have that deviation to stop..."

    I think this is the optimum approach for most events. 


Q: Approximately how many events(i.e., Betting Spots) do you consider in most shoes?


Q:What is your typical deviation-from-expectation requirement for betting into that spot? For example do you look for events that lets say occur four times per shoe. Then after say 60% penetration (with -0- occurrence) in the shoe you start wagering for that event to occur  after the first stages of said event have shown?
    OR 
Are you more likely to only wager on events that lets say only occur every 3.5 shoes?


Thx in advance.

Hopefully they will fix this(i.e., revert back to previous rules).

Good news for slot players is the $1200 cutoff(for jackpot payouts generating a form) has been raised to $2000 >1/1/26. This change doesn't affect me as I don't play slots (or if I do its only when required for free play).


https://cdcgaming.com/brief/house-rules-committee-blocks-fair-bet-act-leaving-2026-gambling-tax-reform-uncertain/




Continued Success,
Continued Success,

Thx Alb. Good stats to ponder.
.

*The key metric to focus on:


Total hands: 56,746

Player wins (P): 28,038

Banker wins (B): 28,708

Raw Player WR: 49.41%

*A difference of B+670

-------------------------------------------------

Player wins (P): 154,176

Banker wins (B): 157,824

Total hands: 312,000

📈 Percentages

Player: 49.42%

Banker: 50.58%


*A difference of B+3648



Continued Success,

Hi Asym

Another group of fine posts up above.Ill comment more on the weekend as I have a couple addendum Qs.

I like:

"...On the other end no commission games will get an inferior ROI whenever a B 6 will win (Tiger/Lucky 6 tables) or when a B three card winning 7 will show up.

From a mere asymmetrical/symmetrical patterns point of view and besides the math implications, that means that we should have more reasons to bet P at Tiger/Lucky 6 tables and conversely to bet B at EZ baccarat tables..."


    One of the easiest ways to approach an even-steven game: A) Play at EZ Bac tables, B)Side step 1 out of every 2 3c7 B wins.



Continued Success,

alrelax up above (in part):

I agree w most of what you have written(and how you have phrased it), as for focusing on what is currently happening.


"..."Expectations are extremely dangerous to a player. By expecting presentations to be a certain way you are removing yourself from the reality of the shoe.

If you remove yourself from expectations of what should happen/ occur and how it should, you become impartial and more open to the possibility of what the shoe will produce.  You pay attention in a different perspective that will be to your advantage.

BAC is complex and your awareness is crucial to profitability. Expectations are great in planning and armchair quarterbacking, but at the table they are extremely dangerous and bankroll drainers in every aspect whatsoever."..."



However, my personal belief is that one can do both: Use expectations as a baseline or guide, yet, focus on the shoe at hand(currently right in front of us). IMO this is superior vs doing solely one approach.

Where I consider expectations-as-a-baseline a little more is when the shoe has significantly deviated from expectations(2-3 SD),...etc. Especially in the early part of shoe. Dependent on how extreme the limits have been approached.


Continued Success,

Wishing everyone a happy new year.





May the wind always be at your back[/i], KFB

Asym up above:

"...without a verified edge the player's bankroll will invariably decline "[/color
    The absolute most important thing a player can do is to confirm(or refute) if one has an advantage. Most importantly use that advantage(or disadvantage) for designing ones money mgmt. Bankroll, Buyin, and Betsize (along with progression, regression, and or flat) should be a function of this figure.

"...Paradoxically doing so they are lowering the math disadvantage by implementing the 'Bold strategy' that teaches us that at any EV- game the best move to adopt is betting large amounts in just one hand or very few hands..."

    IMO if one doesn't have a verified advantage then pressing(Pos pro) is the absolute worse thing a player can do as one is "turbocharging" the casinos' H.E. against ones self.
    My preference is to do a pospro so majority of Ls are at or near the Base Unit(BU).


Op at the top:
"..BANKROLL.  Your total funds set aside for gambling risk.

BUY-IN.  Your funds at risk you bring to the casino for each session. .."

*IMO one should start by clearing writing out ones specific objective/then work backward in how to hit said target win.

I feel one should have ratios that when one completes a win it is large enough to move the needle(meaning increase the overall bank roll).

What I often see (perceive as I don't ask players what is your objective): They have unrealistic expectation of bet size to buyin(e.g., buyin with 1k with a goal of making 5k,...etc). My perception is that most players do not really have a bankroll to support their buyin(Thus they seem to be in panic mode when they are approaching a bust). I bust a  buyin every 10-14 days of playing and kinda expect it based on the Variance I have chosen.

*Though I recently went on a 9-week tear without busting buyin(Very atypical). Three days later busted another one and had only made 19% of itself prior to bust.

I guess it all depends on each persons objective.



Continued Success,

Hi albalaha--good to see you posting again. A very interesting study across many hands. I will respond more later as I have not read all of this yet.

Q: Do you mostly play online or at live bac tables?
If mostly online are the hands dealt via live feed dealt from a live in-casino shoe?

alrelax in the post above:

"..1). ONE HAS TO ADDRESS THE "Quit when your ahead". True, but a real double edged sword to the maximum! You will stop your potential win if you automatically do, simple. In baccarat you must win and win well when you are winning..."

     My preference is to always quit when ahead. Versus the alternative: quit when behind.

"...In baccarat you must win and win well..."

     The last part is the secret sauce. In other words:
"Its not about how fast you win, its about how well you win fast."

It is my opinion one must use some form of compounding (intra pattern streaks, shoes, sessions, trips), as we will see comparable W streaks vs L streaks. Utilize a cutoff for L streaks and do not chicken out when Variance is matching our bet selection/compounding regime is swamping the inevitable L runs.


Continued Success To All,



                                     

I've always pondered why Fortune Tellers and Psychics didn't just go to the Baccarat tables and win the 200:1 bonus bet. Maybe do the Lottery for a $1 every time it exceeded a million.,...etc. No reason to waste time reading palms, tarrot cards,...etc for a small fee.


https://www.casino.org/news/star-casino-let-fortune-teller-gamble-800k-despite-400-income/

alrelax in OP:

"...Well, have not been for several weeks."

     Good to see you are playing again.

"...ith a 3 Card 9.

2Ps shown side by side on the Bead Plate (the top road).

Not shown.  Another P8, the 3rd one and it too was adjacent side by side to the other 2 shown.  Few hands later was the 3rd Fortune 7. 2 hands later was beautiful 3 Card 9-9 tie for a 75:1 pay out.  The very next hand was a 2 card 7-7 tie fir a 50:1 payout.

Finished session/trip around hand 50.   ..."


     Good play-by-play/liked the photos. Hopefully you quit when you were ahead.


Cheers,