Good post Whatswhat.

Good post/info alrelax.

It seems like the NBA/ the media have been mostly silent over the past few days since the NBA, gambling, and crime syndicate story broke. IMO, what could go wrong.

This recent storyline was not too surprising.


NBA Sportsbook Partnerships
The NBA has established several partnerships with major sportsbooks to enhance fan engagement and promote sports betting. Here are the key partnerships:

Major Sportsbook Partners
FanDuel   2014, DraftKings 2019, BetMGM 2018, Caesars Sportsbook   2019, Fanatics   2023,

Partnership Highlights
Advertising Spend: Sportsbooks spent over $52 million on advertising during NBA games last season, showcasing the financial commitment to these partnerships.
Content Integration: DraftKings and FanDuel have rights to use NBA data and branding in their betting platforms.
____________________________________________________________________________

Not to be outdone the Major League Baseball responded on 10/26 with the following statement.

"...In the wake of the NBA's betting scandal, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred defended his league's business arrangements with gambling companies as a necessary tool to catch wrongdoers...."

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/mlb-commissioner-defends-sports-gambling-partnerships-for-the-crucial-data-they-offer/
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The NCAA also stepped up(So not to be outdone).

"...NCAA athletes and staff will be allowed to bet on professional sports following a rule change that will take effect on November 1.

On October 22, the Division II and Division III management councils revealed that they had approved the rule change, following the Division I Administrative Committee's adoption of the change on October 8.

The rule applies only to professional sports like the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and WNBA.  ..."



https://cdcgaming.com/brief/college-athletes-to-be-allowed-to-bet-on-pro-sports-after-landmark-rule-change/

 

Asym from post 1408

"...Question #2.

Are really existing EV+ bets at baccarat?

Answer: 100% positive.

Most hands are hugely shifted towards one side or another, think about the higher two-card point scenarios that in turn are in strict relationship about the average card distribution...."


     The probability of hands being determined by just two cards, without drawing a fifth or sixth card, has been noted. Currently, and unfortunately, mid-hand wagering is not permitted. I think one potential bonus bet that would be wagered upon by many bonus bettors is one that would allow players to wager on the total number of cards revealed in the next hand. I would be interested (but only if the payout was close to probability).
My consideration has also been given to how the game might change if casinos permitted players to view each side's first card before placing additional bets. Predicting the first card may be more straightforward than estimating the value of subsequent cards such as the fifth or sixth, as those draws are functions of the initial card and the recipient side.

*Side Note.
     A couple years ago on one occasion at a table, a dealer mistakenly began to draw an extra card from the shoe, partially revealing it. Several players noticed what appeared to be an eight; we immediately indicated "No draw." The dealer consulted the pit boss regarding the error, who then asked if any players had seen the card. The players indicated they had not by nodding their heads left to right in unison, lol.  We then subsequently wagered for P in the next hand. The pit boss observed the situation without objection, then after the hand just looked at us and shook his head/ smiled.  We increased our wagers by approximately 2x base bet. LOL. I had a passing thought of pushing my stacks all in which would have been the optimum move. However, I didn't want to abuse the situation.


"...Of course we'll get more hands privileging the final win at B side than at P side, yet such situations move around more likely ranges, considered as "undetectable" by math experts...."

     An additional consideration relevant to the previous paragraph—and reflecting topics discussed by AsymBacGuy over the years—is that it may be possible to gain a slight edge by anticipating the outcome of the next hand, specifically the upcoming sequence of 4, 5, or 6 cards being wagered. From the standpoint of whether the Player is likely to draw a third card, this prediction is obviously influenced by the composition of the remaining total card pool. Therefore, as players, we are effectively forecasting the order in which the next group of 4, 5, or 6 cards will appear. The only certainty is that the next four cards will be dealt with in the following sequence: PBPB.

     
Mr. AsymBacGuy continues:

"...Maybe in the shoe we're playing at or at the two consecutive shoes we're facing a given situation will get us a couple of losing spots. No worries, itlr we'll get a robust edge to rely upon.
On the same token, a couple of more probable consecutive wins should be handled by a kind of caution, meaning that the third bettable spot could be avoided so preserving the actual profit.

Question #3.

How much is our edge at EV+ bets?

Say that most of the times and by considering BP hands as equal outcomes, our placed bets will take a 52/48 probability to win, so getting a -1.3% negative ROI at B bets and a +4% ROI at P bets.
Since B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 11.62% of the times, we know that even B bets are EV+ (on average) at the spots we decided to wager. ..."


     Q1    Asym how are you computing this "advantaged nearly 11.62%" in the above paragraph? Thx in advance.

"...Nonetheless, a super selected strategy waiting for some strong negative deviations to happen at back-to-back shoes will enlarge such values up to 60/40 or more, meaning that our bets will get up to a 3:2 probability to win.

    Q2   Asym  do you track >=2 consecutive shoes waiting for even stronger negative situations vs expectation for that specific event?

     I've considered whether tracking 5-6 consecutive shoes to spot extreme limits would be useful. On busy days, I might play for 8-12 hours over 4-7 shoes of 6-deck EZ Bac. Tracking every card is tedious, so I monitor only a few specific card values per shoe. A team could potentially watch for high EV+ opportunities, but I usually focus on playing the shoe in front of me. I find it helpful to stay in "anticipatory mode" watching for certain events to materialize. While rare events—like those with a probability of 9/16 per shoe (i.e, Improbable to show in any single shoe)—are unlikely in any single shoe, however, their Variance can still cause unpredictable streaks (or droughts). This is just my personal perspective and approach.


"...I've written many examples about that, the easiest is by considering consecutive BP doubles, the patterns' stereotype of symmetry...."
Test your shoes and check out how many back-to-back consecutive doubles came out in the form of 0 (no consecutive doubles), 1 (one consecutive double), 2 (two consecutive doubles) or 3 (three or more consecutive doubles)...."

     I concur with Asym. The interpretation of traditional doubles—often referred to as "terrible twos"—can offer valuable insights, particularly in doubles scenarios such as BBPP. Personally, I prefer to consider any occurrence of doubles as "terrific twos." The deductive reasoning used to assess the increasing improbabilities associated with doubles can equally be applied to other patterns. Many of these "other" patterns result from factors present at this critical juncture (i.e., Doubles), including historical outcomes.
     It is my opinion that one of the primary advantages for players is to base their wagering strategies on the averages and limits typically produced by an average shoe. Occasionally, there will indeed be outlier shoes that defy most statistical norms; however, these too are subject to certain boundaries. It is advisable to cease wagering against such anomaly-outlier shoes and exercise patience rather than attempting to capitalize on significant deviations. By the time it becomes evident that a shoe is intent on surpassing all odds, it may already be approaching its extreme statistical limits, for example, exceeding 2.5-3 standard deviations for a specific event.

*Side Note
I just returned from nine-day trip last week to a larger market. I prefer this market for its higher table max bets, eight-deck shoes, and multiple shoe options at each casino. etc. One session I played a shoe that begin with B26 P12. Several players, including kfb, increased their bets and experienced massive wins.

However, three participants in the early-B run lost all their most-recent winnings by betting against the streak near the B26-12 stage. The shoe continued running to approximately B38-14 before showing a slight shift toward Player in the latter stages. Two players (including that kfb fellow) avoided losses by reducing wager size and slowly decreasing larger pressed bets around the B26-12 point. The Banker side had produced multiple streaks exceeding six wins, including one streak of ten and another of seven consecutive wins. It was amazing as near this B26-12 scenario the three of the  (big-win-give-wins-back) players in unison said to each other: "You think P? Yeah lets go P", ...etc.
IMO it is best if we watch for a Turning of Events to actually start and then go with the Turn, if one so desire.
     
Asym continued:
"...
Then pretend to make a betting action after any distinct category had shown up once or two times in a row.
I'd guess you'll prefer to bet against clustered single categories...,..."


Thx AsymBacGuy for all your posts currently and through the years as I know it takes a lot of time /effort on your part.


May the wind always be at your back. kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy. I like your post on Players Edge up above in post#1408. I will respond more later when I have time to respond this fine post with proper justice.


May the wind always be at your back, kfb

Good post/comments.

I agree with most. I find it helpful to treat ones time at the table just as one would if your job was a daytrader in other investment markets. There are so many similarities. Mainly in regard to budgeting, goals, stop loss, and most importantly mental management. I do realize treating ones gaming as an investment or business is not for everyone. It could also removes the "fun" from the casino in my opinion. I realize some play for fun or get-away from the daily grind of life. There is not a thing wrong with that approach either.

Most Mistakes/Mistaken

1). Play too long
    I often play 8-12 hours of actual table time per day. This is actual time in front of a table. Not just hanging at the casino eating/drinking/chatting socially.

    One thing I've noticed is when Im getting tired I will accidentally place my wager on the wrong side of what I intended. I know I need to get on the road as Im mentally drained. what's interesting is I often win that bet,lol. I've wondered if my subconscious state was seeing things clearly(or just lucky). Either way I know Im too tired to be risking money.

2). Chasing losses

    IMO this is most players downfall/ the most common nemesis I see at the tables. It is my opinion Males have a little more difficulty with this as we are taught from an early age to win at all costs/never accept defeat. Sometimes retreat is a tactical option(In war and at the bac tables).

One needs to learn how to lose gracefully and just accept it as part of the game. Its no different then selecting the wrong stock or investment. We don't double down we simply exit that stock position and cut our losses. I see far too many players really beat themselves up mentally after a loss. I lose all the time and just accept it as part of the game.

3). Chasing a singular win
4). When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up
5). When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop
6). Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

    (6) This also depends on the type of wagers one primarily makes(e.g., even chance or highly volatile wagers).
IMO one should constantly look to compound their winnings into larger base bet and bankroll. Buyin will obviously be a function of the previous two(& table max allowed). Meaning don't increase anything when losing. Do increase winning Base Bets, Buyins, and Bankrolls. We never know if the winning streak will occur short-term(a run in one shoe), or long-term(across several shoes and session).

If one only wagers highly-volatile bonus bets then I would suggest keeping ones base bet as  a percent of buyin(So # of tries stays the same). Regardless of ones MM for wins it is important to never wager 100% of winnings back through. Put a certain % into an investment vehicle with a high intrinsic value(& completely removed from casino investments.


7). Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

    This is the whole ball game. Plus E.M.(Emotional or mental management).

#8).Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Best Defensive & Offensive

1). Keep game relatively short
2). Believing it will all change soon if you are 100% alert
3). Change your responses to be in control, you create what happens with your wagering and no one else does
4). Long term strength is M.M.M. applied and used as a protocol along
    I concur 100%


Continued Success,

Congrats to this sports bettor. That is certainly an adequate ROI on $50.

The power of compounding.
It works for Bac and other even-chance(ish) games too.
My preference is to do four compounds(i.e., five hits four compounds).


https://www.casino.org/news/louisiana-sports-bettor-turns-50-into-574925-on-six-leg-parlay/

The casino will likely try to settle with the victims for only $25--50 per. Meaning that's what they value our SS#, credit card#, personal identity, et al info.
Most people don't realize how often crime rings /identity theft syndicates (& individual perps) track and hack ones phone, cars, computers,...etc. One should always sue individually and not accept the class-action payout that is initially offered.



https://www.casino.org/news/another-las-vegas-casino-suffered-major-data-breach-in-january/

Link below.

I agree about self inflicted. Vegas not only sat back and watched other casinos(Indian , online cas, sports wagering,..etc) take their market share. They turbo charged their own demise with what u mentioned above.

Much like Walmart once dominated their part of the market. Then sat back with complacency for 7-10years as Amazon grabbed their share with faster service, free shipping, better prices, easier returns, and on and on.

Like many things in life its easier to maintain a lead than play catch up.


*I also find it interesting how the LV casino industry spins each month/quarter/annual report. Headlines such as Vegas tourism is down but Hold from Baccarat is up. Vegas profits down but due to post-covid hesitation by tourists,...etc.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Quote from the link below:

"...Las Vegas saw a 12% decline in visitation in July — the last month for which statistics were released — compared to July 2024, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Hotel occupancy rates also dropped to 66.7% in early July 2025, down nearly 17% from the same period in 2024..."

https://www.casino.org/news/layoffs-at-the-venetian-las-vegas-raise-more-questions/


Continued Success To All,

Vegas is doing everything they can to generate income.


https://www.casino.org/news/fabulous-5-day-sale-exploded-digital-engagement-vegas-officials-claim/

Link at bottom.


"...where former employees and those affected by the breach have taken legal action, as their data may have been subject to public disclosure without their consent...."


https://readwrite.com/boyd-gaming-lawsuits-pile-up-in-the-wake-of-data-breach/

Thx AsymBacGuy.
I like your fine post/ this thread.

"...The long term money you'll win is a by product of the money you haven't lost..".

    I concur. All other variables being equal: Fewer selectively placed wagers will out perform a large volume of wagers.
The ol "Good, Better, Best" situations. When in doubt or we get that subconscious nudge that although this upcoming wager is EV+, it may not be the "BEST", just pull our wager back/ wait.


"...we'll see that at both systems W and L streaks will show up or stop by a better than expected probability in relationship of how things went so far in the actual shoe..."

    It is my opinion this concept(In Bold) is why we casino gamers (investors) should focus on "even-chance" ish type games that do not have card replacement(i.e., Baccarat) vs card-replacement games (i.e., dice and balls type games).


"...By utilizing a 0.75 winning probability you'll get a better idea about "quality" distributions as what we should be really interested upon is, first, cutting loss streaks; then trying to exploit the "rarer" economical profitable streaks.
The 0.75 probability incorporate itself a minor number of decisions, thus restricting the single hands realm. This alone is doing us a favor.  ..."


    I like your 0.75 prob examples as well as your thoughts in above/previous posts about Sym vs Asym setups.
I think u will agree that if one is extremely patient one can occasionally find even more profitable probability examples > 0.75. Though I suspect many gamers would not find it enjoyable if they only wagered  4-5 spots per shoe.


Continued Success,

Hi VLS. I saw that and I think it was a good move.

AD. I agree as IMO that is usury.
I realize patrons are not forced to play any game. However, casinos often seem borderline "Carnival" environment with some of their games/gouging.


Continued Success,

It is my opinion Manhattan(the specific burrough) would not benefit from a casino. NYC needs to first address the crime in ManHattan as well as the surrounding burroughs. Casinos historically do not improve the crime rate for the nearest streets/communities.

*I kept getting emails from Caesars telling me to contact my politicians to vote Yes on this project. I responded to an email inquiry and stated I was not for this venture until NYC lowered crime. Tourism to NYC has tanked in recent decade, due in part, from the increasing crime/homeless encampments. This was once a beautiful city(at least Manhattan was at one time). Much of the other four burroughs have been in decline for even longer.

Just my opinion and I do not live in NYC/have not been there in a couple years. I wish NYC the best.


Continued Success,

"The biggest risk is not taking any risk." – Mark Zuckerberg

"...I have found taking the uncertainty out of the picture is truly the key. It is not easy by any means, but you have to. Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening at the moment (the presentments) and all of the other automatic tendencies to interpret and wager upon your experiences, memories and wagering plan(s) attacks..."

I agree with most of your fine post. Some I may differ with a little. I agree limiting the uncertainty is extremely important. Even if we can't eliminate it we can do small things to lessen or lower said uncertainty.

My belief is that we can apply the math of the game(Probability scales) yet stay in tune on "what this specific shoe is producing". Some times the shoe may initially present as skewed but will generally start settling in to the laws of probability expectations(or at least start approaching limits). Though sometimes the race is cut short and the runners run out of distance. So we may not get to see the comeback from the late-charging runners.

By math of the game I mean: We should constantly be thinking and looking for opportunities to apply probability games with the casino where we are the casino. For example, what is the probability of seeing X and Y, and X or Y, prior to seeing Z, ...etc. I find opportunities are easier to see by looking for events where limits are being approached that we know are very rare or seldom reached (in most shoes).

Yes we will see some shoes that defy math theorems and are what I call "weird" shoes. This is where  money management is paramount. That is, we should have a cut off so we only miss a certain number of wagers (mine is typically two or three), and I stop pursuing that event. Yet I never limit the upside when I am in sync with the results(selecting consecutive winners). This is what I perceive keeps me off extended losing streaks on one single event.

"...Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage..."


Emotional chaos and lack of emotional control is the "achilles' heel" for many players.


Continued Success,