Well said, XXVV.

GLC

It is my limited and humble opinion that some even chance methods can be winners for a very long time.  Ultimately, they can all lose.  I love playing around with progressions, but all they do is give a greater possibility that you might stay ahead of the large losses with a little luck.


As long as either more than half the possible outcomes will defeat you or the payoff is less than fair, eventually enough of the losing bets will hit in a large enough cluster to bust your bankroll.


Even if you had a 2% advantage, the wild swings in deviation from standard, can kill you.


You can play and win for long, long periods of time with enough bank, but if you hit the killer series, if was all for naught.


I prefer to play with a 1,000 unit bank.  Divide the bank into 3 session buy-ins.  Set 350 unit stop loss.  This gives you 3 chances to survive a buy-in loss.  If you can't survive this, luck is not on your side and you should re-group.  Maybe a better system, if there is such a thing.


From my testings I have found that your system played by a computer program for millions of spins always loses.  If you test it by hand, no matter how many sessions you test, it's still too few to guarantee that the first time you go to the casino to play for money, you won't hit the worst string of spins you can imagine and wipe out all your previous confidence.


I keep remembering our friend Ivica warning that he had a system that won and won and won and he thought he couldn't lose until he encountered the streak from hell that almost wiped him out.


It's a good reminder to never and I mean never play with money you can't afford to lose!


That's my 2 cents worth.


GLC


P.S.  I've been by real play a bastardized version of Tera TNT for a couple of years off and on and am ahead by 500 units.  It wins about 1 unit for 15 bets.  The swings are pretty extreme.  I have a maximum bet of 80 units.  I have been down over 900 units at times.  For quarters, it's scary.  I can't imagine if you had to play a $5 unit.  I don't think it's a viable system.  I keep thinking when I'm in the hole 900 units that I could start the same kind of losing streak that I just had and since my bets are elevated, I'd be wiped out in short order.  Been lucky so far in my opinion.  If I had never gotten in the hole more than a couple of hundred units, I'd have more confidence, but scratching my 1000 unit limit so often scares me.

Victor has encouraged me not to be too bashful to post on this forum, so here goes.
Since I'm always toying around with progressions, here's another one.

All my progressions start with even chance bets and then I adapt them to dozens or dbl dozens etc...This bet method is based on taking advantage of hot streaks.  If you notice, most of the time when you're playing, you are having average luck.  But, there are times when you're having very bad luck and other times when you're having phenomenal luck.  This method exploits the latter.A good thing about this method is that it's a flat bet. 




For those of you who aren't that fond of flat betting, this can definitely be adapted to progressions.I'll explain using e.c.sBuy in for 12 units.  Flat bet 1 unit until you have 24 units in front of you or you have 0 units.  This can take a very long time or it can happen very quickly.If you lose all 12 units, you decide if you want to call it a day or try again.Let's assume we are on a hot streak and we win 12 more units.  Put your original 12 units in your pocket and play with the 12 you just won.Double your bet size to 2 units and play until you either get behind 4 bets or get ahead 6 bets.  If you get behind 4 bets, end the session.  You will have won 4 units.If you get ahead 3 bets, put these 12 units in your pocket. Continue play with the original 12 units you won.Your bet size goes from 2 units to 3 units.  That means we have 4 bets worth of 3 units each.  If you get behind 3 bets, end the session.  You will have won 3 more units.If you get ahead 4 bets, put these 12 units in your pocket.Continue to play with the original 12 units you won.Your bet size goes from 3 units to 4 units.  That means we have 3 bets worth of 4 units each.  If you get behind 2 bets, end the session.  You will have won 4 more units.If you get ahead 3 bets, put these 12 units in your pocket.Your bet size goes from 4 units to 6 units.  That means we have 2 bets worth of 4 units each.  If you get behind 1 bet, end the session.  You will have won 6 more units.If you get ahead 2 bets, put these 12 units in your pocket.  That means you won 60 units.  Go home.  How lucky do you think you can get?Of course, you don't have to play all 5 levels.  You could only play 3 or 4 levels.  And, you don't have to play until you win 12 units at each level.  You could stop when you've only won 6 units or 9 units.That means for example if you're at the 6 bet level of 2 units each, instead of playing until you're up 6 bets, you could end that level when you're up 4 bets.You can tweak this any way you want.  All you're risking at one time is 12 units and once you win at the 1st level, you walk away a winner no matter how much further you get in the progressions.

I suggest that you track you e.c. bet selection on paper until you go through a down turn and then start playing this system in hopes that your down turn won't last much longer.  You can set some parameters for determining that your down turn has ended such as winning 2 out of 3 or 4 out of 6 etc...Cheers,GLC

Some of us grew up in Oklahoma.  We can't read fast, we can't talk fast, nobody can understand our accent and it takes a lot of rabbit trails to say anything!

All kidding aside, your point is well taken.

If this forum were in say,  Bulgarian, all posts would be shorter.  Especially mine.

GLC

Sam,  This is indeed the nature of progressions.  We win a lot of quick units and then we have a bad run that drives us into the hole.  Now comes the decision.  Do we stay at small stakes to climb out over time or do we keep betting larger and larger bets to try to recover quickly at the risk of going even deeper into the hole more quickly.

That's what a fibonacci does.  It gets you out of the hole with only 2 wins back to back or 2 out of 3 wins.  But, if you don't get those wins quickly, you can find yourself betting all that money you earned in your business.

I've developed, who hasn't, progressions that recover with only 3 wins or 3 out of 4 wins or any number you want.  The problem is when you're betting large units hoping to recover quickly, you can just as easily run into another bad losing streak and next thing you know, you're practically buried alive.

Sometimes, I look again at a simple progression of like 1 then 2 or 1-2-3(4) or whatever.  This is just a small step away from a flat bet.  Actually, if you remember some of my bloviating I presented the idea that every bet is just a camoflauged flat bet.

My favorite bet is still the flat bet parlay.  Bet 1 unit and any time you win, you let your bet and all wins ride until you have enough money on the table to cover all previous losses and then you pull it back.  You may have to let it ride up to 5, 6 or more times.  When this happens, you can set a cap on the parlays of say 3 or 4 and recover in smaller chunks.

At least betting this way, we can quit at any point because all we lose on a loss is 1 more unit.

The extreme of Giz's method is the "Target betting method".  Flat bet 1 unit until a win and then bet all previous losses for a 2nd win in a row.  I know this isn't what Giz is presenting, so I don't want to misrepresent his betting methodology, it's just what I thought of when I read his explanation.

If you find a remedy, we're all ears.

GLC

Here's my initial thoughts.  Since we know the 3 has some pretty long sleeping sessions, to have a shot at winning, I think we need to incorporate a trigger.  The most obvious is to wait until the #3 hits and then bet on it for a pre-determined number of spins.  If no hit, then you must wait until it finally hits again before we can bet on it again.  We could, instead of waiting for another hit, wait for either another hit or a pre-determined number of spins with no hit.  Say 108 spins.  If it doesn't hit within 108 spins, we can assume it's (forgive me for using the word) DUE   and act as if it just hit.  That means if we're betting for 37 spins for a hit once it shows, sleeping for 3 cycles triggers another round of 37 bets.

We would have to use a very small progression, say 1-1-2-2-3-3-4-4-5-5-6-6 etc...(each number represents 37 bets at that unit amount.  I'm using 2 sets of each unit amount thinking of the suggestion I read somewhere of the 2nd set at the same level being used to limit our number of units lost at that amount.  Of course we wouldn't recover all previous losses on a single win unless it hits within the 1st 36 spins.  That means we'd have to work our way back to a profit with a series of hits. 

The whole purpose of a progression is to keep us at the table long enough to get enough wins at large bet sizes and close enough together to recover all the small but numerous losses during a losing series.

As with all progressions, a bad enough stretch can kill your bank roll and a flat bet will just drift into oblivion without a little luck.  I'm sure if we had the patience we could back engineer some convoluted system to beat the 15K spins betting on the #3 only, but it wouldn't work for any other number or any other set of 15K spins.

Okay, I'm on Pacific Standard Time and even TCS is probably in bed by now, so I'm going to get some of that sleep I talked about earlier.

GLC

P.S.  I just notice that Victor had a similar thought.  Oh well, I took the time to type it up, so I'm going to post it even if it is just an echo.

Quote from: albalaha on November 16, 2012, 03:29:48 AM
Hey Captain,

Personally I have nothing against you or anybody else.

I want to learn something from you guys too, who are playing these games for decades but most of the veterans are still not ready to share anything worthwhile ( a few veterans like flat_ino and GLC are just opposite and they share all their fancies and fantasies) .

If we do not test new ideas and accept challenges and try to find new ways, it is useless to roam around forums and make a big gathering just to chit-chat.

Dear Albalaha,
I didn't know you knew I was a "veteran".  US Army to be exact.  Military Police.  Hehe
Sorry I can't help you with your challenge.  Since I've posted every thought I've ever had about roulette (I'm not so sure Ivo has) then you should know that I don't mess around with straight up numbers.  Time constraints.  If I didn't have a family, a job, and public service, or need a few hours of sleep every couple of days, I might consider it.

Actually, I think it's kind of like asking if God can make a rock too big for Him to lift.

Your challenge reminds of the story of David and Goliath.  You know, where Goliath would come our every morning and challenge the Isrealites to send out a champion to fight him.  David, only a boy, didn't have enough sense to know he couldn't defeat the 9' giant.  So he took his sling shot and nice smooth stone and before he got close enough for Goliath to reach him, he smote him right between the eyes.  It was like taking a gun to a knife fight.  Goliath never knew what hit him.

Maybe Bally or GM3 will turn out to be our David.

Cheers my friend,

GLC