The long term money you'll win is a by product of the money you haven't lost

As banal as this statement could appear actually is one of the best recipes to consistently collect profits.

Suppose we have two systems to adopt:

a) The preferred system, that is one we particularly like for whatever reasons;

b) The perfect opposite system.

We know that besides some very rare circumstances (of course privileging the (a) method, I guess), both systems are losers itlr for the HE.

But after having tested hundreds and hundreds of shoes shuffled in the same fashion, we'll see that at both systems W and L streaks will show up or stop by a better than expected probability in relationship of how things went so far in the actual shoe.

Obviously it seems better to bet toward positive a) system streaks, yet those streaks are (almost) equally likely to show up while using the b) system so becoming losing streaks.

Cutting a long story short, in order to get long term wins we have to fictionally cut off an equal or almost equal number of losses (that is wins on the other system's side), but this procedure must be partially insensitive of the previous shoe(s) distribution.
The "ploy" not to expect something more due than average without assessing current patterns was set up by not ruling out the possibility (albeit very rare) that the same or correspondent card distribution will be dealt twice or more.
An heaven when things went good at our favor but a terrible and worse nightmare in the opposite scenario.

Therefore and simplyfing a lot, back to back a) or b) system "long" streaks are not coming out around the corner and even less likely are the situations where a kind of overalternating mood stands for "long".
Nothing new: for example run 6 coin flip hands and symmetrical quality patterns are just 4 possibilites (ABABAB, BABABA, AAABBB, BBBAAA) out of 64 possible results.
So 60 patterns are making asymmetry either from a quality (e.g. AABABB) or quantity (e.g. AAAABB) point of view.
 
In real baccarat terms, it's the distribution of back-to-back patterns that counts, in the sense that once a symmetrical pattern had shown up we have to wait for a pattern breaking the previous symmetry then assessing whether the symmetry will stand another time for the new different pattern or conceding room to a more probable asymmetrical one.

Utilizing a 0.75% probability oriented to get an asym pattern (and providing the action of proper random walks), you'll see that first and second winning attempts will come out clustered at least one time (so negating long isolated successions) by percentages getting astounding levels of probability (so profitable edge to exploit) as, again, asymmetry is the norm at baccarat.

An opposite less desirable system to utilize (so privileging the less likely symmetry) should be employed with caution once asymmetrical patterns seem to be silent in relationship of the number of hands dealt, especially when we suspect that the production wasn't randomly distributed.

as.

You wrote:

We tend to wager on what I would define as, expecting certain results. I do believe those are brought about by our inner subconscious and previous experiences with what is actually occurring. And I wholeheartedly believe that is where and why we go wrong on many wagers.

Probably this is one of the best advice any baccarat player in the world should implement in his/her arsenal.

as. 

 

That's ok, but this shoe is very polarized towards something and of course such shoes won't come out around any corner.
That doesn't mean that whenever we'd think a distribution will seem to take a strong polarized line we must stay still (or, worse, approaching a kind of balanced route), yet it takes a lot of experience to know what to bet, how much to bet and by which frequency in such circumstances.
For sure when in doubt we better go toward the actual flow or what's happening, providing the actual flow is consistent so, IMO, getting marked deviations where thinking to bet the opposite would be a silly move most of the times.

OoOoO

According to our experience and long term data, the game could be "resolved" by crossing more EV+ hands than EV- hands so not giving a damn about the actual level of profitable or unprofitable probability.
We've taught that no matter how we manage our betting, every bet will be EV- no matter what and this is a complete bighorn.sh..it.

More specifically we think (but we could be wrong) that the best and riskless primary way to ascertain a possible advantage is by adopting a flat betting procedure.
If the sum of EV+ betting spots > EV- betting spots, we'll win otherwise we'll directly fall into the HE.
Varying the betting amounts without a EV+>EV- verified factor acting on the long term cannot alter the negative edge by a one trillion probability.

Again in the real world we'll have to choose whether to bet this or that, say to get something going on, stopping or showing up for the first time.

Basically, more tentatives we'll make to guess such three different situations and higher will be the probability to lose as those three diverse situations feature "general cutoff" values to get hints from where strong deviations happen but are not the norm.

Among the three different classes, a special place is taken by what hadn't happen so far as we do not want to rely upon general statistical data made on random successions when the actual succession could be easily unrandomly distributed.
I'm not joking, many shoes you'll face aren't randomly distributed.

Notice that once a pattern is not prolonging (so stopping its appearance) a given silent third pattern can easily remain silent so breaking the old adage that baccarat is an "either/or" interminable sequence.
That happens because we utilize a 0.75% probability where the third pattern could remain absent for quite long.
On the same token and whenever that's the case, the remaining two patterns move around very small levels of variance, that is 0 or 1.

Since any random sequence (any shoe dealt) is supposed to produce different but surely shifted (unbalanced) A,B or C patterns, we ought to approximate at best how many times each pattern will come out isolated, silent or clustered.
Obviously once a pattern remains silent, the other two patterns tend to take a more clustered route; conversely whenever all three patterns come out by a kind of proportional (unlikely) fashion, best bets will be made by a sort of "stopping" approach thus negating long clusters of anything.

Suppose we classify those three patterns as A, B or C.
Consider any shoe dealt as AA, AB, AC, BA, BB, BC and CA, CB and CC probability distributed by innumerable sequences.

At an indipendent random model, every doublet will show up by a math expected percentage (11.1%), at baccarat once a pattern had shown up OR NOT, it'll affect next outcomes by percentages capable to erase and invert the HE.

The baccarat model is asymmetrical, only incidental and rarer values will alter a more probable asymmetrical flow of the outcomes. Not ignoring that asymmetry most likely will be included within low or very low values.

See you in a couple of days.

as. 

Well, how can I disagree with what you have written...

as.

If we'd think to play with an edge, two big enemies must be overcome in order to properly exploit it.

1) Betting few hands, that is selecting at most our betting options.

2) Being totally insensitive of the actual session's bankroll status, knowing that any edge needs time to get its full power.   

No surprises that by disregarding the point #2 even the point #1 will be invariably affected, meaning that when we're losing we'll try to find reasons to unnecessarily bet too many hands with the effort of breaking even.

That's why we advocate a basic flat betting procedure where W/L streaks and W/L spots aren't equally balanced within short frames.

So when you'd think to raise your bet consider the worst scenario (losing a lot more) than the hopeful situation capable to erase some losses by a lesser number of wins.
It's true that no matter what are the betting amounts we will place, once we play with an edge everything will come at our favor.
Yes, but we cannot be 100% sure about the current conditions making profitable our plan devised at different environments.

Then the house and besides the HE has at its disposal way more money than us, so serenely willing to accept a passive mood vs our wagers oriented to get an advantage by mere statistical reasons.

Probably the most wanted action any casino in the world would like to face is getting players betting every hand and raising their wagers with a kind of "sky's the limit" attitude.
So, in some way and generally speaking, our best action would be to play very few hands and always betting the same amount.

Next topic is so complicated I prefer to present it the next week.
Sorry.

as. 

I'm glad a real expert on this subject as KFB agreed on this point!

Of course I'm not advertising random.org site, just taking it as the best probable source to get real random card successions worthwhile to be compared with what you're facing in the real world.

When deep money is involved we've learnt not to trust anyone or anything even though it's very likely that most people on the "other side" are unaware of the randomness topic (let alone the players...), so relying on formulas and/or math laws, etc.

In our opinion collecting large samples of real random successions is the best way to get an idea about how things develop in the terms depicted above.
It's, again, quite probable that unless a software instructs the cards to be distributed by a perfect random source, what we played so far in a way or another are just unrandom shoes where Alrelax posted many valuable thoughts for them.

In any instance, we keep thinking that random production or not, different patterns move around more likely ranges where a large part of situations are completely worthless to be wagered, remember that at baccarat we're constantly going uphill for the HE.

Setting up a strategy about 'ranges' means to approximate at best of our human possibilities the various patterns apparition and lenght with the old rule of thumb that what happened so far could be easily considered as not existent (especially at unrandom shuffled shoes), yet many valuable and relatively more frequent spots will incorporate a higher edge as 416 cards tend to be distributed by quite detectable levels of clumping.

More later

as.

Consider baccarat as a world formed by three different pattern models:

a) Homogeneous patterns (e.g. long 1-2 sequences, long chopping lines, long consecutive streaks, etc)

b) Heterogeneous patterns (patterns that continuously change their shape by a very high frequency)

c) Patterns not belonging to a) or b) categories.

At the vast majority of shoes dealt c>a+b as patterns are more likely to get levels of probability roaming around "intermediate" levels different than 0 or 1 (case b) or getting huge values (4, 5, 6 or more, case a).

Most players like to bet towards the a) class, other players prefer to chase the b) scenario (patterns standing for short sequences); almost nobody but the very rare serious bettors have learnt to set up their plan upon the c) category.

Notice that we're not criticizing to ride the occasional a) successions where we could only lose one bet but collecting several wins, yet for sure the b) situation (unless the player is particularly super skilled) is the worst to set up a strategy upon.


Let's take a look a bit further by a "consecutiveness" point of view.

- a+a situation could happen, a+a+a situation is very very unlikely to happen.

- (b) situation is a kind of consecutive situation by definition, so it's way more probable to get it mixed by (a) situation or, more likely, interspersed by a (c) situation.

- (c) situation, the strongest on average, tends to constitute the "norm", so itlr c-c>c-a, c-c>c-b.
Once c-c happened, the c-c-c sequence starts to get more volatile values belonging to the classic gambling world (no edge).

We see that in a way or another we had to empirically set up a limit to those a, b and c scenarios transformed into numbers. All unsound math considerations that any math or stats expert could dispute and, frankly, that we couldn't care less about.
After all we are just approximating probabilities at our advantage with the aim of winning money and not disturbing the casinos' knowledge about the baccarat invulnerability.

Anyway there's a decisive factor to be ascertained, that is the real randomness of the card distributions we'll have to face in the real world.
On that important subject we think that it's an intricated task for us to assess whether a shoe is really randomly shuffled or not, fundamentally as real random sources cannot be implemented so easily in any card distribution.

Try to run a 416 finite card distribution at random.org site (considered the best), register the outcomes by baccarat rules and take care of the a, b and c situations happening by a consecutiveness and average levels of presentation point of view.

Probably random.org site is the best source to get an idea about how things will distribute by a perfect (or at least, nearly to perfect) random factor.

By comparing random.org successions with real card distributions happening at your table (same table, same conditions) you'll get a better idea about how real randomness is supposed to act or not.
So when in doubt do not bet anything or bet what's happening whenever b and c situations have surpassed their cutoff values.

as.

Basically at a game where is so easy to win in short terms and practically impossible in the long run, the most important skills come from experience, that is learning from the mistakes we continuosly make in our sessions and in our tests.

HE impact interferes very little with our plan once we properly run infinite times similar betting situations, where of course everything will tend to be equal or almost equal.

For example, one of the worst mistakes to make at baccarat is quitting the session after having collected more wins than losses, a thing particularly frequent and made by players who like to hugely modify the betting amounts, so not taking with the proper consideration the inevitable WL permutation issue.

More later (hoping no site maintenance work will go on)

as. 

Yep, your "Sections" tool is a nice idea to try to get a better picture of what is going on.
We adopt the same concept by assessing consecutiveness of certain outcomes.

Problem, obviously, arises whenever any kind of pattern assessment seems to fail (no long 1-2s sequences, no moderate/long streaks, no one side predominance, etc)
And altogether obvious is the fact that casinos will prosper a lot about such natural patterns being by far the most likely occurrence itlr.

That's why we came to the conclusion that betting at an EV- game needs to choose the same route taken by casinos: long term quality will overcome long term quantity; math edge is just an additional factor to win money from customers and not the principal cause.

Experience

Differently than NL hold'em poker, for example, very young players have a 0 probability to win at baccarat itlr.
Aggressiveness here is the sure recipe to go broke or to win a lot but just within short terms.

The best bac players are people who have experienced thousands and thousands of shoes and I mean "real shoes" and not using strategies obtained by simulated shoes, no matter how's sophisticated the software's production.
We've seen that it's very probable that bac productions will feature different levels of randomness and probability, so any mechanical approach disregarding such factor is destined to lose.

Of course a possible unrandomness or a kind of "undetectable randomness" needs a careful study in relationship of the actual conditions that do not necessarily link with the current patterns.
That's why something it's advisable to stay put for many hands (or even shoes) or at the very least to play some hands by an opposite line of what we've found to be profitable in our findings.

More later

as. 

Quality remains a totally ininfluent factor anytime the production is indipendent and perfectly 50/50 shaped for each hand, a thing that can't happen at baccarat no matter how cards are arranged.

Once 312 or 416 cards are shuffled into a shoe, a strong bias constantly acting towards more likely ranges is set up at the start, meaning that each succession is affected by a kind of unrandom element.

Such statement is supported (albeit taken at different issues than baccarat) by studies made by eminent math experts as RVM and MvS.

oOoOo

A bias could show up by "natural" features (natural variance) or defects of shuffling, what is important to understand is that a bias doesn't always act towards LONG sequences of something but towards PREDOMINANT things of something.

In a word, that most of the times such a bias is quite balanced along any shoe dealt, meaning that what was won in the past will tend to get more losses than wins in the next successions.

Many times this assumption means that what many call as a "chaotic world" is just a bias that naturally go in the other direction.

The common trait helping us a lot is that the famous overalternating mood is the least likely to happen.

So even it might appear as an unsound approach, sometimes there are reasons to apply the reversal strategy, of course only whenever a preferred strategy stopped to work.

Once the "overalternating" opposite patterns betting had reached the 2 or 3 value, we'd better stay still or wagering towards the last side being clustered at least one time.

That's one of the best strategies I can suggest here, perfectly fitting the Gambler's Fallacy law where it's impossible to guess this or that by assessing previous outcomes.
So we can safely assume we're considered as clowns by casinos.

as.

There's no uncertainty when you look for patterns from a quality point of view

No matter how's random or unrandom the production we're facing, the quality performs way lower levels of variance than quantity. 

Quantity is beloved by short term players, quality remains a factor obviously needing more time to be properly ascertained in its inevitable fluctuations.

It's very likely that the few people making a living at baccarat prosper about "quality" parameters, making the  qualities "lenght" just a second-step possibility.

So basically the first thought shouldn't be focused about how long a profitable pattern will happen but WHEN a given pattern would be supposed to show up in relationship of the previous patterns and in constant relationship of the "expected" patterns.

Anytime we'll place a bet we must confide on the probability that patterns stop or show up by values capable to erase or better invert the HE; then the "quantity" factor remains just an additional element.

More later

as.

I enjoyed reading your thread.

Very often players forget that dealers are there to work so deserving the utmost respect.
In our opinion the vast majority of bac dealers are excellent employees even though there are some rare exceptions.

Now I'm looking forward for a post about floormen, Al!

as.

Hi Bally!

Below are just personal thoughts.

The waiting time is one of the most important concept to implement in every bac strategy, KFB knows very well this EC feature.

About doubles we know that 2s are the most probable pattern happening at baccarat, but long term quantities are strongly affected by a "quality" factor.
In a word, doubles are predominant as an overalternating mood is slight less likely to happen and, of course, long consecutive streaks at baccarat are relatively uncommon unless several "incidents" happen along the course of every shoe dealt.

Simplyfing, it's the clustering effect that matters.

as.

A couple of good links, Al!

We've extensively wrote a lot about it...

When a slice of pizza costs $12, a cocktail $25, a T-shirt with a simple "F1" logo $80, no free parking available, etc...well maybe people will look for better places to spend their money.

Where are the famous "Vegas prices" now?

as.

Welcome back!!

as.