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Messages - alrelax

#1
As Asym wrote in his Post #1433, the following: "Most of the times patterns move around low or very low levels of deviation, more appropriately by ranges of univocal situations happening for short frames.

"Trend following" players (probably 99% of all bac players) will win by hoping (or confiding) that homogeneous (or at least controllable) lines will be superior than heterogeneous lines, so wagering that winning ranges could take a longer than expected distribution.

The remaining 1% part will adopt a kind of system/approach/method/strategy based on B>P propensity, B/P gaps, B/P pattern deviations, RTM effects or other features. Obviously their enemy is strong negative deviations (ranges) not properly balanced by the searched (expected) results.

Definitely both different approaches are completely worthless itlr as bac tables continue to collect huge profits either from trend followers and from "system" players."

Yes, IN THE LONG RUN!  However, although we all play 'forever' in a sense, do not play for the long run.  Play for the instant date and time, play for the instant shoe alone, selective and individualistic.  Do not play for merging the results into your scorecard from the previous hundreds and hundreds of shoes/sessions.  What you are sitting in front of, has no rules, regulations, presentment scheduling protocol, etc., etc.

1). ONE HAS TO ADDRESS THE "Quit when your ahead". True, but a real double edged sword to the maximum! You will stop your potential win if you automatically do, simple. In baccarat you must win and win well when you are winning. Give back a little bit of the win, but have the experience to realize the risk and how reality plays being played out and keep it going without frustration, emotion and greed.  Refer to my rock solid M.M.M. to build and increase winning and realize when to call it quits for the session.

2). TREND FOLLOWING Vs. PRESENTMENT RECOGNITION.  Trends are always present, however a trend is not always there when we wager!  We all believe somewhat in following a trend to profit, but greater than 50% of the time, you will lose far greater than you will prevail. That is a guarantee. However, Presentments Recognition is a greater player advantage without a doubt. Hard to do, I agree. Trend following is a definitive exercise that is very emotional where upon you are basically setting the course that the shoe must conform to and you must follow as well. Presentment Recognition is wagering without judgment course setting. When I learned it I did much better with my results.

3). DO NOT CHASE.  Never ever!!!!  As I just said never ever. A negative martingale or two, but not a chase scene. Don't do it. Yes, I have done it in the past and I regret all the times I've done it. As I said before, the few times I have made up money, the amount of money I lost does not come close to all of the money that I've spent in the attempted chases.

Come on people let's win. Don't give the casino your risk capital. Win!
#2
Actual Baccarat Shoes / Re: Session & It was Great!
December 08, 2025, 02:20:00 AM
I am not 100% sure at that property if it's a Light & Wonder shuffle machine. But I know on their mini table that they do a wash for an X amount of games per side for the alternating decks in the machine. As far as the midi table, of course those cards are trashed after each shoe.
#3
Actual Baccarat Shoes / Re: Session & It was Great!
December 08, 2025, 01:10:02 AM
Couldn't fit this picture on the drive out to the property in the first post.

Bottom 2 on the way home today.  Stayed an extra couple of days, non gaming, full comp, great local area restaurants and lounges.  Good times but although I reside in a wintery weather region, the area we were at is supposed to get physically slammed tonight so we left.  Note the interstate message warning board.
#4
Actual Baccarat Shoes / Session & It was Great!
December 07, 2025, 11:55:50 PM
Well, have not been for several weeks. We got a bit of hellacious winter weather since Thanksgiving. See pictures posted below of the cleared roadways. Left early morning and took a nice long drive with a friend to the casino. Stop for a long great breakfast. Then made a few other stops for shopping at the outlet stores for Christmas, etc. Finally near the casino late afternoon, stopped nearby and got something to eat at one of our regular places. Got to the casino.

First shoe, note the extremely low ties as I always talk about. And as I always say, low ties define certain presentments the majority of the times. Also defines very consistent Sections,  which to myself, are easy money makers. I love them. Note the first section, note to second middle section and note the third, the last section. Easy gimmie money to the 100th power in my opinion!

First shoe, I  didn't do too good on the side bets, although I didn't play the whole shoe I missed the first 25% or so. I seriously love the 6 player start followed immediately by the 5 bankers. Caught the Panda 8.  Check out the 6 players and then the 9 bankers with the 2 ties, a real money maker there!  Parlayed a few times and just kept pulling down gorgeous win money and sacrificed the last one back to the casino on hand 10.  Everyone else was either not wagering or flat betting and even win and then wager less subsequently.  To each his own!

Now we get to the second shoe, the MONEY SHOE my friends! Made a decision after the last shoe to play banker side only and cover the 4 side bets, most every hand. $50 on the Fortune 7, $40-$80 on Panda 8 and varying amounts on the Heavenly 9s and the 7s.

My reasoning was, nothing really except 1 Panda 8 and the few 3 card 9s in the previous shoe. It's coming. My experience, my belief and my GUT at the table I was sitting at.

First hand Natural Eight Bankers over seven for players. Then player and lose, then I win the 3 card player 9, even though I was on the banker and I lost that bet, so about even, maybe win a little total on the hand. Then lose the next hand. Hand 5 was a beautiful 3 Card 7-7 tie as you can see the picture of it in the Bead Plate shown and I had a quarter on the side bet at 200:1. Players had 10/A, bankers had 10/5 and players flop a 6 on the A. The bankers high wagering hand gets the card and peaks. Announcing it was a 1 line card. Turns it vertical and peels it. Announces it is a two or a three. Yeah I feel it. It's a long long peel. And finally a 2 is flopped with several standing and clapping for the 200:1 pay out.

Note the low ties 0-1-2-3 as I always talk about.  What a great proven clue!  2 ties in the first 23 hands.

Lost two out of three players that followed. Won a couple of the bankers. Lost a player. Won a banker and then the first Fortune 7 came out. Again beautiful! Players had a 10/5 and banker had a F/A. Player flops a 5 and I get the card for the banker. Three sided and I peeled back a 6. Got the Fortune 7 with $50 wagered and the dragon bonus for the 7 to 0 banker win as well for and additional 6:1 payout on that side bet.

Next hand was a P6 and B7 win. Then another F7 with first two player cards being a 7/3 and then a 10/4 for the bankers. Player flops a 6 and I get the card for the bankers side. It's a one line card! Turn vertical and peel it back and we have another fortune seven as I slam down a 3.

Cuts to the player and I got the 3 card P9, but lose the bankers bet I had and the other side wagers. Lose next three wagers out there. Win a bankers hand and lose the following player.

Then a mini run of 6B happens with 2 full parlays and 3 full win pull downs before falling off and I win a nice 3 card 9 also!!

Now the win profits are piling up!  Then cuts to P and I lost one. Next P was a Panda-8. See the picture I'm posting. I cut from $80 down to $40 on the Panda 8 bet.  Still won after losing the other wagers, which is making me feel pretty darn good. And that's what counts as I'm covering all my losses easily and keeping most all of my wins.  And for me, that spells large profits with no stress!

BTW, everyone was on bankers with no one wagering on players or the Panda 8.  I was the only one.  I snapped the picture just as he was getting the 10 black chips for my win payout. It's very hard at that property to take pictures of the table. Most of the time they allow me to take them of the scoreboard, but the table is definitely off-limits.  I try to sneak one or two once in a while like this one I took.

I won 3 bankers and lost the following players but won the next Panda 8 with $80 on it. What is not shown is the next 7-8 hands or so. Another Panda 8 came out and another Fortune 7. One more time with a two card 7-7 both sides tie paying 50:1.

Reference 2nd Shoe.

First hand beautiful B natural.

5th hand was that 200:1 3 Card 7-7 tie, within the 6P mini streak.

4Bs with the beautiful 2 Fortune 7s, see explanation above. Followed by a matching 4Ps.

6Bs with a 3 Card 9.

2Ps shown side by side on the Bead Plate (the top road).

Not shown.  Another P8, the 3rd one and it too was adjacent side by side to the other 2 shown.  Few hands later was the 3rd Fortune 7. 2 hands later was beautiful 3 Card 9-9 tie for a 75:1 pay out.  The very next hand was a 2 card 7-7 tie fir a 50:1 payout.

Finished session/trip around hand 50.
#5
ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT.  PAST GENIUS LEVEL!

"........was silently working on handling things that can not be done ordinarily. I found that flat betting is not a remedy and progression is a double edged sword, it might help in certain cases but has its own weaknesses that would kill us faster than a flat better in wrong moments and despite everything, wrong moments can not be avoided fully. That is the harsh reality of randomness."

In a nutshell what the highest majority of all bac players do not grasp. 

Happens all the time, every darn shoe! 
#6
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
December 04, 2025, 03:02:30 AM
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket."

—Unknown
#7
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
December 03, 2025, 12:25:09 AM
"It is often our thinking that hurts us. There is no reason to imprison yourself at the table! Do not think outside the box, ever. Think like there is no box at all".  —Alrelax

#8
Alrelax's Blog / So Wrong So Right
December 01, 2025, 12:57:49 AM
Yes anything and everything happens at the baccarat table! From the cards presenting unbelievable patterns, to the dealers off-the-wall attitudes and responses, to the floor personnel's supervisor lackadaisical actions or super strict compliance, to the people playing of all races and bank-rolls, to those watching the game with their out loud inquisitive comments, juggled with all kinds of emotions and responses.

Music. Some music fits in excellent for the bac table. Such as Stealers Wheel, 'Stuck in the middle with you', you know the song, that famous line so friggen perfect for the bac table  "Clowns to the left of me jokers to the right". And Pink Floyd's 'Money', you know that song too, "money it's a gas, grab that cash with both hands and make a stash". And the Dave Matthews Band, 'Burning down the house', you know that song also, "watch out you might get what your after, I'm an ordinary guy burning down the house ".  Oh yeah, let's not forget about KC and the Sunshine Band, 'That's the way I like it', so well-known, "That's the way uh-huh, uh-huh I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh I like it", the perfect repetitive lyrics for those wins after wins after wins, stacking up the chips! 

Dealers.  Although the shoe is either the real friend or the enemy of each person's session, there has to be a dealer to pull the cards and either swipe your chips away or pay you what you won. Dealers are usually the heartbeat of the game, some run a tight ship counting down the seconds until they smack the felt several times with the palm of their hand, signifying no more bets and yet others allow the players to run the schedule and how the game is actually played out. As well, certain dealers are all smiles and googly eyes, while others are as tight as a military drill sergeant on a Monday morning during basic training. When you become friends with a dealer as a regular player, you see a lot of the coldness suddenly goes away and then it becomes a much different game for many of us.

Floor Personnel.  From Floor Person to Pit Supervisor, to Floor Supervisor, to Table Games Managers, they all exist to keep law and order in the land of the unknown, the casino. While all the Floor Personnel of varying titles have basically the same goal, which is to run the games and take care of player's records and requests. The difference in personnel is there attire and their attitudes. From the, "do I really have to wear a tie and real shoes", to "I take extreme pride in my Sharp Dressed Man look". They stand there with their arms crossed, eyes locked on games, watching larger wagers and settling disputes while keeping the peace, they also stand there propped up against the podiums or a table waiting impatiently for their break time while either snickering at a dispute or laughing at the players fighting amongst themselves.

Players.  Some occupy seats with eye piercing thought, waiting for their prime trigger to wager a minimum table wager. Others wager thousands of dollars per hand with the precision of engaging in their grandma's secret cooking recipes. And of course, there is usually one or two standing behind all the seated players. They are usually passing their chips between their two hands making as much noise as possible by the clacking of their chips, up and down or back and forth. Those standing will usually wager quite infrequently, after several comments about why something should/has to happen and of course they place their wager right after pointing to that 'certain' something on the scoreboard. If their wager won, they usually once again point to whatever it was on the scoreboard that was an absolute certainty for an easy win. And if they lost the wager, they usually just go back to studying the scoreboard and not saying anything. Usually this happens more often than not.  Let's not forget about the newer player attempting to get a comp, that really doesn't have enough time or rating in to get some kind of small comp for a $20 or a $30 meal.  He is continually told that he needs additional play time.  Meanwhile he is risking well past the meal cost many times over. Never understood that but just to speed up the game I have witnessed a few times especially when a table was extremely hot, seeing a green chip or two tossed by other players to the person requesting the comp in order to get him to exit the game.

Watching The Game.  And finally those just watching the game.  Their out loud inquisitive comments such as how did two face cards lose to only a 5 and a 4?  Or how come the players do not draw additional cards? And at Midi/Macau games, why are the players totally vandalizing the cards?
#9
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: L.I.S.T. & MMM
November 30, 2025, 03:52:58 AM
Bump up after 5 years. 
#10
Civil & Criminal Topics / Caesars Executives Apologize
November 22, 2025, 01:46:44 AM
Caesars executives apologize for doing business with illegal bookmaker.  By, Buck Wargo, CDC Gaming.

Saying they didn't do enough to stop doing business with an illegal bookmaker, Caesars Entertainment executives apologized profusely and accepted responsibility for their failure before the Nevada Gaming Commission Thursday.


https://cdcgaming.com/caesars-executives-apologize-for-doing-business-with-illegal-bookmaker/
#11
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: A Definitive Vegas Update
November 19, 2025, 12:06:17 PM
Simply great overview!

Las Vegas spent over $4.3 billion building Resorts World — the first megaresort on the Strip in more than a decade. It was supposed to be the future of Vegas luxury, technology, and entertainment. Instead... it's already struggling. Massive revenue drops, expensive fines, empty retail areas, tech failures, guest complaints, and a location that continues to hold back the entire north Strip have turned this "dream project" into one of Vegas' biggest modern disappointments.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3wWV95g5V8M&pp=ugUHEgVlbi1HQg%3D%3D
#12
Here is another one:

Fourteen people were charged for their roles in a multimillion-dollar illegal sports betting ring that involved college athletes and had links to organized crime, New Jersey authorities announced Thursday.

According to the authorities, Joseph "Little Joe" Perna, a member of the Lucchese crime family, and his associates ran a nationwide network of bookmakers who used offshore websites to facilitate approximately $2 million in bets between 2022 and 2024.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/46957471/14-arrested-mafia-backed-betting-ring-involving-athletes
#13
November 13, 2025

WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) joined the Government of Mexico in targeting the Hysa Organized Crime Group and numerous Mexico-based gambling establishments involved in cartel-related money laundering and a slew of other criminal activities across Mexico and Europe. This coordinated action is the result of recent U.S.-Mexico commitments—secured during Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley's trip—to work together more closely to combat narcotrafficking and related financial crime by Mexico-based drug cartels and other groups.


https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0315


And here us another detailed explanation:

https://www.kget.com/border-report-tour/mexico-shuts-down-13-casinos-for-alleged-money-laundering/
#14
Great detailed explanations with pictures!

If this topic interests you, you must read this!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/11/01/NBA-mafia-betting-poker-charges-investigation/86860683007/#
#15
Great info take!  Funny as hell, but sad!

Gaming industry could face repercussions from NBA-Mafia gambling case.

This statement takes that proverbial cake!!!

"When I saw the Bonnano family, the Gambino family, the Genovese family, the Luchesi family ... these people were in power in criminal organizations since I was a small boy. My question is, where has the federal government been for the last 50 years?"


https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/gaming-industry-could-face-repercussions-from-NBA-mafia-gambling-case-3530797/