QuoteWinning spots
There are three different ways to catch a W spot:
1- Hoping it'll come out as a "starting" spot
2- Considering it to stop a L pattern of given lenght
3- Considering it to come out again after a W spot (W cluster)
From a math point of view, such list doesn't make any sense as the W probability will remain 0.75 indipendently of what we're trying to dissect.
Actually (and fortunately) things doesn't correspond to those raw probabilities for each W scenario happening.
In fact even the first starting scenario mainly based upon "luck", itlr will form detectable W distributions needing quite time to be correctly grasped, many times by letting go those natural L clustered events to show up.
The third point seems to be quite straightforward but it is not, we reckon being the #1 reason why most players fail.
The second point needs a lot of time to provide real bettable spots, but by far will provide those sure strong EV+ situations completely denied by math (but not by statistics).
Remember that we do not want to win 100% of those relative rare allegedly EV+ spots, we'll always expect negative variance putting us into a harsh emotional status.
Yet, whenever a verified situation launched "infinite" times won't provide proportional math values, well we'd think to be in a very good shape to exploit an advantage.
More later
as.
1 & 3 go together for myself and I have profited nicely and smoothly with clear insight because of both of them merged at a live table.
You have touched upon a detailed post I have been working on!
Minor/Major problem with your 1-2-3 and catching a winning spot are many.
HOWEVER, 1–Single spot is easier, than 2-3-4-5, etc., I agree, but the confidence and profitability is usually not available with just 1-ONE-a single wager here and there sporadically for numerous reasoning.
But, and a huge "however" with detectable distributions remain with numerous wagers are needed for a good advantaged chance at profitability in a live game of baccarat.
To myself, your 1 & 3 combined to a nice opportunity at times and those times it does, when I am on it, I progress heavy and fast and then pull down continual winnings.
My reasoning is because change happens and will happen no matter what it is. And when it does, it is a "FOLLOW ME" flag and reward. Doesn't matter if it was supposed to produce what was presented or not.