I'm extremely sorry to interject here, but I have to.  If Asym wants this post deleted, delete it it's okay. 

Reference last few posts on both sides.  I have found in over 40 years of actual brick and mortar bac play, that anything and everything has an equal chance to occur.

Test and stat all one enjoys and until you are confident with numbers, triggers, patterns over the long run.

However, and a huge giant HOWEVER; those triggers that occurred and came about in all one's tests, cannot be transposed into a live bac game of a few shoes and may never come about in that session made up of 1-2-3-4 shoes. 

But, maybe I am off course?

Yes, I knew it was coming in this one!  And you know if a waffle house is closed, it is bad!

IT'S not often a 24/7 diner chain goes dark, but that's exactly what happened as a major winter system triggered a rare "Code Red" situation across parts of the South.

https://www.the-sun.com/money/15837424/waffle-house-shuts-down-weather-storm-fern-code-red/

And when I wrote, "The long-run strategy is mathematically doomed, while the short-run strategy at least gives you a fighting chance."  I tried to express my love and success with a hard pos-progression hit and run, short session positive experience.  Rather than playing a grinding shoe after shoe and attempting to feed into what the casino desires bac players to do.

If I understand what you are asking, that is, how to make and hold profit with a progression that is winning?

I would apply the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd I have written about and explained in detail many times.  I would also use a 2 step full parlay progression max and then just pull down the winnings and eventually apply that 1/3rd to. 

Now the indictments come.

From the comments section, to the point, factual and never ending:  "If money is involved people will always figure out a way to cheat."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v__1GlOXsNs

Taking a break the other night and talking with a few BAC friends at the casino, we wound up discussing new dealers placed on the BAC tables. And we simply do not prefer them in most any way over the regular dealers that we have built a rapport with.

There are just simply no connections, or understanding(s) and certainly no harmony between dealer/player with the new dealers. Most all regular dealers we know, there is a special kind of dealer/player camaraderie. I don't know about you guys but after years of playing BAC, that camaraderie has grown into a bond with players like myself and many others I know personally. In fact, it has helped us countless times with either leaving the table or continuing to great wins.

New dealers do not know what I prefer in chip denominations when I buy-in.  I have to explain it and at times I get a bit of resistance until the floor person is called over.  The regular dealers know and automatically cut it out.

When it's slow or one on one the small talk starts. The regular Dealers, pick up the conversations where they generally last left off and are heads and tails over the new dealers in every way. 

A lot of the new dealers have that fast losing chip sweep that absolutely sucks and so many people detest. Yes the money is going to go away, however that fast sweep is absolutely insulting and ultra negative in my opinion.

Regular dealers have that gentle losing hand chip sweep. Not much more to say about it, but they know how to handle losing hands a lot better than the new dealers do.

Tips.  At least myself, I have a certain strange rapport with all my regular dealers, whereupon my tips are paid and rather than the dealer quickly snatching them up, I stack them and slide them up to the dealer, kinda skirting then across the table somewhat.  The new dealers will quickly pay them and snatch them up without any class whatsoever, IMO.

When I buy-in the new dealers will repetitively ask for my players card when every regular dealer already knows the routine and will just say it is Glen's and point to me and nothing else is said. I have to explain to the new dealer I don't have a card in my pocket and the floor person already knows who I am and sometimes that new dealer even rolls their eyes. Again another uncomfortable feeling.

The ending, so important when a player loses. The new dealer will have that standardized, "thanks for playing, better luck next time". Yeah the regular dealers just don't say anything, they are quiet, give me a quick nod of their head, which means will see you next time and you'll get everything back, type of secret code talk, LOL. But personally I detest and so does everyone else that standardized, "thanks for playing and better luck next time" pure made up trash!

And one final one is a few of my hand gestures that I use throughout the game.  Either for a very brief waiting period before dealing the hand, or I'm not gonna play this hand, or I'm gonna get up and go use my phone and many other ones. The new dealers have no clue and I'm not gonna explain it to them, when the regular dealers make it so comfortable.

Absolutely correct in many many aspects.  Most will never understand the simplicity of it.

Gambling Science: Why the house will always win in the long run

Undoubtedly you have heard the phrase "the house always wins" when it comes to casino gambling. But what does that actually mean?  And why is that said?

After all, people do hit jackpots, people have great runs at table games, people win repeatedly in the sport books, people win at the other games.  And casino games are supposed to be fair – so what guarantees the casino still comes out ahead?

The answer lies in a simple but powerful mathematical idea called "the house edge": a small, systematic statistical advantage built into every single casino game. It's the invisible force that ensures the numbers will always tilt toward the house in the long run.

So, let's unpack and quickly take apart the science behind that edge: how it's constructed, and how it plays out over repeated bets.

Roulette: the clearest place to see the house edge at work

Roulette looks like one of the fairest games in the casino. A spinning wheel with numbered pockets, half colored red and half colored black, and a single ball sent spinning around the outside to eventually land in one pocket at random. If you bet the ball will land in a red pocket (or a black one), it feels like a 50–50 gamble.

But the real odds are a little bit different. In most Australian casinos you'll find 38 pockets on the roulette wheel: 18 red, 18 black, and two "zero" pockets marked 0 and 00. (In Europe roulette wheels have 37 pockets, with only a single 0.)

The zero pockets are what creates the house edge. The casino pays out as if the odds were 50–50, however if you get the color right, you get back the same amount you bet. Which most believe that is a 50-50 chance, but in reality, on a wheel with two zero pockets your chance of winning is 47.37%.

When you bet on a color, the house has a 5.26% edge – meaning gamblers lose about five cents per dollar on average. A single-zero wheel is slightly kinder to the gambler at 2.7%.

You don't see the house edge in the course of a few spins, one-two or three shoes of cards, a few hours at a slot machine, etc. But casinos don't rely on a few spins, a few shoes or a few hours at a machine. Over thousands of bets, the law of large numbers takes over. This is a fundamental idea in probability that implies the more times you repeat a game with fixed odds, the closer your results get to the true mathematical average. The short-term ups and downs flatten out, and the house edge asserts itself with near certainty.

The law of large numbers is why casinos aren't bothered by who wins this spin or that shoe of cards, or even tonight, or win for several nights or even more. They care about what happens over the next million bets. They don't care about the winners (unless they are obviously cheating), they only care that there are enough losers.  Please read the Wiki for a great detailed run down of 'the law of large numbers', that will help you understand this super important info as to what I just mentioned. 

CLICK ON THE WIKI:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Simply a great detailed explanation.  OPENING:  "In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean."

And once you understand that, you will be able to adjust your play, gain advantages and use a Money Management Method that benefits you whether you are winning or losing. 

The Gamblers' Ruin problem

Another way to see why the house always wins is through the so-called Gambler's Ruin problem.

The problem asks what happens if a player with a limited bankroll keeps betting against an opponent with effectively unlimited money (even in a fair game).  Say baccarat with 50-50 banker-player wagering with no commission or side bets. 

The mathematical answer is blunt: the gambler will eventually go broke if he continually wagers every hand or a large number of hands per shoe, plays everyday or nearly everyday.  Period, with absolute certainty. 

In other words, even if the odds are perfectly even, the side with finite resources loses in the long run simply because random fluctuations will push them to zero at some point. Once you hit zero, the game stops, while the house is still standing.

You have to fully understand the following without any doubts, "In statistics, gambler's ruin is the fact that a gambler playing a game with non-positive expected value will eventually go bankrupt, regardless of their betting system.  The concept was initially stated: A persistent gambler who raises his bet to a fixed fraction of the gambler's bankroll after a win, but does not reduce it after a loss, will eventually and inevitably go broke, even if each bet has a positive expected value."

Casinos, of course, stack the odds even further by giving themselves a small edge on every bet. That tiny disadvantage, combined with the fact the house never runs out of money, makes ruin mathematically inevitable.

The more bets you make, the worse your chances

Say you walk into a casino with a simple goal. You want to win $100, and you plan to quit as soon as you hit that target.

Your approach is to play roulette, betting $1 at a time on either red or black.

How much money do you need to bring to have a decent chance of reaching your $100 goal? A thousand dollars? A million? A billion?

Here's the surprising truth: no amount of money is enough.

If you keep making $1 bets in a game with a house edge, you are practically certain to go broke before getting $100 ahead of where you started, even if you arrive with a fortune.

In fact, the probability of gaining $100 before losing $100 million with this strategy is less than 1 in 37,000.

You could walk in with life-changing wealth and still almost certainly never hit your modest $100 goal. (The full mathematical explanation is spelled out in, 'the law of large numbers', I referred to above.

Betting bigger may give you a fighting chance

So how do you create a real chance of success? You must either lower your target or change your strategy entirely.

If your target were only $10, you'd suddenly have over a 50% chance of going home happy, even if you started with just $25. A smaller goal means fewer bets, which means less opportunity for the house edge to grind you down.

Or you can flip the logic of Gambler's Ruin: instead of making hundreds of small, disadvantageous bets, you can make one big bet.  Or several depending on your knowledge and bankroll in regards to what you are attempting. 

If you put $100 on red all at once, your chance of success jumps to roughly 47%. This is far higher than the near-zero chance of trying to grind your way up with $1 bets.

The long-run strategy is mathematically doomed, while the short-run strategy at least gives you a fighting chance.

A small house edge adds up

Roulette is the clearest place to see the house edge, but the same structure runs through every casino game. Each one builds in a varying degree of statistical tilt or bias.

Some games, like roulette, have fixed, rule-based house edges that don't change from one player to the next. But others, like blackjack, have a variable house edge that depends on how the game is played. But no game is exempt from the underlying structure.

Small edges don't stay small when you expose yourself to hundreds or thousands of bets. In the long run, the variance fades, and the outcome converges to the house's advantage with almost certainty.  Again, maybe not in a session or two or three or even five.  But the house's advantage will always outweigh yours, always.

That's why the house always wins. Because mathematics never takes a night off.  Never ever.

When you win, there is no charge to color up and leave.  By the way, you can opt-out anytime and remain a winner.

A few details about what was written and pending, it's not over yet:

A new tax law goes into effect on Thursday that is likely to have massive ramifications for gamblers.

Starting on Jan. 1, 2026, only 90% of gambling losses will be able to be deducted on taxes at the end of each year.

Meanwhile, 100% of winnings will still be taxed as income, meaning that even if you break even while gambling, you could still be on the hook for a significant tax bill.

For example, if you record $100,000 in gambling losses throughout 2026, but also record $100,000 in gambling winnings, you would still owe $10,000 in taxable income, despite earning no net income.

Those with modest annual net income gains could also see their gambling winnings completely erased in taxes if a significant amount of offsetting losing wagers are placed throughout the year.

The change comes as part of the Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law in July. All 50 states will be affected, and the changes will apply to all sports bets and casino games that are played, both online and in person.

However, the change will not affect previous wagers placed throughout 2025, with old tax rules still applicable for the last time this spring as tax season gets underway.

Only federal taxes to the IRS will be impacted. State tax rules on gambling winnings and losses will not be affected.

Already, the new tax rule is generating significant backlash among the gambling community, with some warning that wagers placed on sports bets and in casinos are likely to decrease as a result of the change.

A push is underway to repeal the provision of the bill, led by Las Vegas-area Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada. However, the bill, titled the Fair Bet Act, was introduced in July, and has not progressed in the House since.

Dedicated to ADulay

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8zgD7UovI6U&list=RDk2fN36wq-zc&index=13&pp=8AUB

Ref the below video in the comments:  "I was a waitress at Waffle House while going to college.  This is the best thing I have ever seen.  It's pretty accurate for a Friday night."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KYNFqmu2toI&pp=ygUQd2FmZmxlIGhvdXNlIHNubA%3D%3D

THE BEST RIGHT HERE!  OMG!  I clicked on this one and just took a sip of coffee when Steve Harvey started about the waitresses screaming when going inside.  Coffee came out my nose and mouth, seriously.  Went to Ameristar casino year in Kansas City and left about 3:30 am, we got to the Waffle House down the road next the interstate and got a table.  The part about the menus in the table were spot on!!! Waffle House loud, waitresses screaming the orders, "sliced, diced and double covered", etc., etc.  A complete zoo inside, everyone screaming and yelling to be heard.  But what great food!  Winning cash at the casino, then the Waffle House afterwards. 

"Waffle House is one of the best places to eat, but eating it at Midnight to before 5am hits absolutely different."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GQtr35B8M4k&pp=ygUMV2FmZmxlIGhveXNl

And on the serious side of things, for those who have no idea what a Waffle House is all about:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tl2hnyXIdlc&pp=ygUMV2FmZmxlIGhveXNl

One last one.  From the comments:  "as a former WaHo overnight server, yes. this is true except the actual dojo and training it implies. i have seen people shot in the parking lot, coworkers OD and get revived, coworkers throw hands then keep on working, drug dealers keep the peace, dealers make change for us, idiots try throwing things, customers arrested, fist fought a lunatic trying to threaten us, crack head call the cops on his self, prostitutes try turning tricks in the bathroom, and much more. i only did it for about 2 years."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nVrFzg4xWps&pp=ygUMV2FmZmxlIGhvdXNl

And one very last one.  GO BACK TO CALIFORNIA BEACH BOY KIDDIE.  ROMAL LAUGHING!

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/XJ3SGI5p4iY

Chime in here if it's okay please.

Asym wrote, "After all most players follow the shoe and all of them are long term losers and trying to exploit the "following the shoe" approach mixed with the expectation guidelines needs a lot of experience and study that surely KFB and Alrelax got in their arsenal."

Finding and defining advantages from fallacy to tangible;

Applying a rock solid Money Management Method that works and you religiously abide by regardless of loss or win;

The ability to take uncertainty out of the picture.  Not easy but you have to. Taking uncertainty out of your conscious will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you an advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening and presentments that have a much greater negativity of advantaged play.

The above 3 have proven themselves as great advantages IMO, in my actual brick & mortar play experience and allowing myself the ability to win far greater than what I lose. 

The 2 states I am between the majority of the times, there are no Waffle Houses.

Although when I am in or around Kansas City for work or casino, there are!  And in fact I/We will even break from a casino to go one nearby to eat! 

Love them, always did and always will!

Rolling High

Walking through the casino, cash in my pocket
Feeling bold, All hundreds, Buying in let's go
I'm ready, the chips shimmer like pure gold
BetSelection's got my back, where truth's the only game
And from my first wager of the night
Any drama and fakery, vanish like a faint flame. 

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection, my guide in this thrilling night. 

Black and purple chips are my ammunition, I wage my war
Against the house's natural 8s, oh what a score
Winning with my natural 9s! Bring it on, it's all good
EZ, 5 Treasures, Macau style, it don't matter how they play
When the cards are dealt just right, they all turn my way. 

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned.
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection my guide in this thrilling night. 

It's what it's all about, under the neon skies
Facts and figures, no disguise, no more lies
Entering the casino with a mission
BetSelection by my side, Always Always Forever
Feeling the rush, a roller coaster ride. 

From Atlantic City to Las Vegas
From Connecticut's largest to Los Angeles' crowded
From South Florida's Hard Rocks to the Midwest
Been there and played most all without much changing
The amazing Asians, wonderful Whites and
Let's not forget a few other nationalities
That venture into our world, the world of Bac

One thing for sure that is guaranteed not a loser
Same as a natural 9 and you know what I mean
And that my friend is BetSelection
Bring it on, 24/7/365 cause we are here
High five, fist bump, big hugs for those huge wins

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned.
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection, my guide in this thrilling night.

And we worked on this one for awhile:

Baccarat Bonanza

Slamming cards on the felt, the lights shining bright,
Risking it all under the neon night,
Bets going down, the chips stack high,
This is the casino, where dreams never die.
Swiping my card, feel the rush in my veins,
Exchanging dollars for chips, breaking the chains,
Sipping on whiskey, feeling the thrill,
I'm ready to play, ready for that skill.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


Natural nine vs a natural eight,
The crowd holds its breath, it's a high-stakes fate,
Cards on the table, it's a battle of pride,
With every round won, Never losing my stride.
The dealer caught off guard, in awe of my luck,
While I'm counting my chips, he's running amok,
Each victory crown, a crown of my own,
In the heart of the city, this thrill I have grown.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


Skill for some, and luck for others,
In this grand game, we all find our brothers,
Blackjack, poker, craps, slots but Baccarat is my jam,
With every new round, I'm a part of this fam.
The clinking of chips, the music so loud,
In the casino's realm, I'm feeling so proud,
Fingers crossed tight, for that natural win,
In this tangled dance, it's where I begin.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


With cash in my pocket, I'm leaving my mark,
In the heat of the game, igniting the spark,
Casino life may be wild, but it's where I belong,
Baccarat my anthem, my heart's steady song.

Baccarat Soul


Step into the light where the chips all gleam,
In the heart of the night, living out a dream,
Cards on the felt, hear the dealer call,
It's a game of Baccarat, where I rise or fall.
Money in my hand, it's a rush like no other,
The thrill of the game, oh, it's like a lover.
Natural nines coming, I'm riding on high,
Asian players staring, man, they can't deny.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


Whispers in the air as the chips exchange,
Every flip of a card feels a little deranged,
Eyes on the table, the tension can build,
But with every wager, my fortune's fulfilled.
The crowd gathers 'round, they can't look away,
How I conjure up wins, in a magical play,
Counting my blessings as the fates intertwine,
In the world of Baccarat, I'm feeling divine.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


The felt beneath my fingers, it's soft and it's grand,
With every chip stacked high, I'm making my stand,
All the glimmers and the glamour, it's hard to resist,
In the game of chance, I'm lost in bliss.
Asian players amazed, asking how it's done,
But in the dance of the cards, it feels like pure fun,
Natural nines flowing, like a river of gold,
In this Baccarat table, my story unfolds.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


So raise your glass high, let's toast to the night,
To the thrill of the chase, everything feels right,
With money on the felt, and dreams in the air,
In the world of Baccarat, I'm beyond compare.
Every hand is a chance, or every spin and roll,
In this soulful casino, I'm reclaiming my soul.