Hi All,
Good thread that all gamblers need to monitor. Often, small changes lead to larger changes(against the player), at later dates. In other words if politicians are allowed to take and inch they will return to take a foot,..etc.
 A Bac comrade had sent a link to that the following day after it came out.

The following link at bottom addresses the same issue/ "I think" is an update to what  your article addresses:
'One Big Beautiful Bill' Has Silver Lining for Gamblers as Certain Tax Reporting Thresholds Increase

https://www.casino.org/news/one-big-beautiful-bill-has-silver-lining-for-gamblers/


Have a good week,

I know we have discussed this topic in the past. A couple good thoughts in the link below.


https://www.casino.org/blog/winning-streaks-in-poker/

10-Day 10- Casino Four-State Casino Cash Extraction

     I hope everyone has been winning bigley. Its good to see the forum is back online. A table mate told me during the trip that the forum had dissolved.  I'm not sure where he heard this obvious nonsense. He(Mostly plays in Wichita, Ks I think) , and had mentioned that he followed posters Gr8 and Asymbacguy. I asked him if it was a forum called betselection. He responded: Yes, but that forum was shutdown/no longer exists.  I had not logged on in 10-15 days due to long hours at the tables and travel. When I returned from my trip, I was unable to log on for some reason.  I'm guessing just general maintenance by Vic. Anyway, it was good to learn from a forum member a few days ago the forum had been reactivated. I think most will agree there is a couple of decades of great content on this forum. Many experienced players who have left the tables, perhaps permanently, spent years sharing valuable Baccarat content.  Many long-term early posters such as Asym are still contributing Bac wisdom as well.

Four-State Bac Trek:

I like playing in states like Kansas and Colorado as many casinos and most offer higher limits (5k and 10k). Most of my casinos in Midwest have Tmax of 2k (which means approx. 3900 is max one could wager). If one is allowed to cap another player's wager. Plus, many casinos in the Midwest require a wager (No Free Hands), or maybe only three FH per shoe, ...etc. Plus, I thoroughly like the option for monitoring several shoes at once/selecting the one I perceive is optimal. Though I'm fortunate to live in a casino market with a hundred casinos within 3 hours of driving. I would like to see more Stadium multiple-shoe (Live Dealer) setups within driving distance.

Six other Bac players caravanned with us/ made this trek playing in several states as we navigated toward the Rocky Mountains. We met four others (two dealers and two of my relatives), at our destination in the Colorado casinos (We spent seven days here). All of us play mostly Bac with a few also playing Roulette, Poker, and Craps line bets. All of us are experienced and serious gamers. I primarily play Bac, but I sometimes participate in ETG games such as roulette when they are available. etc.).

Some Personal Highlights of the Trek.

     +67.5 Units (Base units) for the trip. I have been on a seven-week winning streak without busting my buy in(I've lost some shoes but able to recoup and get a win in the session. Sometimes it took 2-3 shoes to grab the W). The winning streak persisted during the trek.  However, I returned home, took a day off from the tables and four days later did finally bust a buy in.


     +23.4 Units(Max win in any one session). A session was sometimes >=1 shoe.
-13.6 units (maximum drawdown recorded during a single session).  Approx 2.5 shoe session. I finally pulled ahead about 4 units/it was almost midnight. So decided to call it  a night.  I had mostly been (-) for the whole duration of the session.

     *I saw a player hit two out of three consecutive wagers on the Dragon7(3c7 B win). He jogged toward the cashier's cage a couple of hands later.

     *I played with a young lady (approx. 25—30yo) mostly wagering for Panda and or Dragon take an approx. $1500 buy in to approx. 3500—4000. She seemed to mostly win from a clumping of Bonus-Wager hits. She told a relative, possibly her father or uncle, that she was leaving to go to the bank and pay off her $2,200 car loan.  I wanted to high-five her but just told her "Smart move." . She had won several Base Bets in a row as well as a couple bonus bets in close proximity (It seems like it was the Panda8, 8-6, or 9-7 two card bet win).

    * I was playing next to a lady that seemed to mostly wager bonus bets and had been wagering for the Panda8 (I believe), nearly every hand then "erroneously" placed her wager on the 8-6 Bonus and hit it (She had almost busted), and this produced something like a +2K in front of her. She thought she had lost, and it wasn't until the dealer started paying her bet that she realized it was a big W.  She parsed out 200/ locked up the remainder. She departed about 15mins later with most of her winnings it seemed.

     *I wagered two sports bets (Wimbledon) and went 0-2 on this trip. I seldom wager sports bets unless I get a tip from comrades that have more expertise. Both tennis bets were my picks.


Most interesting/entertaining extended session (2.5--3 shoes/approx. 4-5hours).

     I saw a narcissistic player increase what appeared to be a $15k-17k buy in to just over 40k(twice). Then, departing the table with only 3k—4k. He incessantly claimed expertise in numerous subjects and frequently placed wagers, often verbally stating the outcome of the next hand to those at the table(He was equally right and wrong). 

He was another one of those "been-there-done-that" kind of guys that shared his expertise nonstop. My group are veteran serious players that are all about making money. Though friendly and more than happy to celebrate with table mates we generally don't offer advice unless solicited(& then only in brief).
His expertise spanned stock markets, luxury cars, gold investing, real estate, cyber security, computers, relationships, and being the world's greatest Bac player.  A friend who traveled with us, and owns a cyber security company, would frequently nudge me whenever this "expert" shared views on cyber security or government surveillance,..etc.. We had some laughs later on.

 One lady mentioned to a lady next to her (and Opp end of table from the "expert"), they had sold their home and looking to relocate locally. He proceeded to tell her how the real estate companies "get Cha", and one should do like him and just sell /buy your home (Without a RE agent), like he does, and on and on.
 I'm not sure I have ever met a more arrogant/narcissistic player or any person (At least not anyone over 15—25yo or so). He was in his approx. 40s. Most of us would have probably ignored his behavior if he was in his 20s and we probably would have concluded his euphoria/narcissism was due to getting an atypical big win or maybe on drugs...etc. or simply being young /naive. He didn't seem to be on stimulants nor inebriated (though drinking a few beers).  Sadly, it seemed to simply be a chronic personality trait.  At least with drug-induced Euphoria or narcissism it generally dissipates.

OMG, this guy would not stop talking about his Bac prowess et al expertise. He had all kinds of crackpot theories on Bac. He once told us the casino arranges the cards to beat players that wager only Bank (& why he NEVER wagers B). Then, a couple hands later he was wagering on Bank.

He frequently wagered a large bet on (B or P), coupled with a 2-3 bonus bets, all at the same time. He seemed to do a negpro when losing and a pos pro with similar aggressiveness when winning. He wagered very erratically and seemingly didn't care about following a smooth curve with his progressions. HTwice he had to wager a (make or break) wager that if lost he would have a remainder of approx. 2k--5k. He survived both but kept pushing his luck.

He wagered significantly more than others at our table (often 1k—5k per hand. A typical base unit for most of us was a starting wager at $100–300. etc. and followed a reasonable progression. So, he frequently touted his wins and demanded to "hold the floor" on any topic mentioned at the table. Once he won a large bet (and most others lost), he proceeded to stand up and give the touchdown "arms up" gesture all the while looking at nearby tables to see if others may have seen his big W. Because he undoubtedly had the highest IQ in the room, lol.

A few times I considered asking him to just shut up for about 3 minutes and let my brain rest a little. We constantly scanned the tote boards at four adjacent tables for a possible departure. I saw a potentially good shoe profile nearby, but it was too crowded with zero chairs available, and the event was nearing the end.  However, they were all mostly similar to ours and mostly in line with expectation. So our option was to endure this table (& expert) or go to a different casino.

Though, we should never wish bad or bad results at the table upon anyone. Several players appeared thankful when he slinked off after losing his wins back to the casino. His wife was almost in tears at one of the two brief moments he had over $40K in front of him. She whispered to him "let's go now", and he scolded her that he wanted to push his totals to $50K. She responded, "We would still be down from the last two days". Two of the ladies were still laughing about him an hour later in the next shoe (as well as next day). They seemed to resent how disrespectful he was to his wife (often scolded her/ also flirting with other females). After losing almost all (approx. $3k remaining) he slipped off at a chip refill/ tried to act like he was going to another table. He stated he had won "over a 100K" just a week earlier,.etc../ the casino was watching him, and trying to get their money back, etc. You know, because according to him he was such a big winner,lol.
They headed to the cashier's cage/exited the casino.

A classic on what "NOT" to do at a bac table. In other words, never become too haughty /narcissistic and perceive one has nothing else to learn at the bac tables. Same as in life. Most everybody can do at least one thing better than us.


Biggest Single Bet/Session Win from a Tablemate.

     The cyber security friend I mentioned above mostly plays Bac and Craps line bets. He once was a very skilled BJ player for a couple decades but after the payout changed from 3:2 he stopped playing. He has mostly played Bac Base Bets/Craps Line wagers in the past decade.
 
     He took a $275 craps line bet: 275,550, 1000,1825, 3650. I didn't play with him at this Craps session, but he indicated a mix of P and Dp produced the W streak. Then he brought it to the Bac table the next day and wager $5k after seeing one of his favorite triggers (Won it on a 1-0 outcome). He brought it all down and locked it up. He is typically a very stoic/serious person and seldom talks or shows any excitement. He yelled out "YES", as he told me later, he had initially thought the hand had lost (or tied). That was a large win for him as he most commonly wagers between $250--toward $1K if he wins several times in a row.

My largest wager(s) outcomes.
     As some of you know that have played with me.  I mostly play in the Midwest with lower table max vs larger markets such as CO, MS, NV. Most of my casinos are less than or equal to 3900, which is the maximum on $2k tables, while the range is approximately 5800–5900 on a $3k table. 
Whenever I have at least three wagers at a Tmax of about 3800–3900, I reserve one for a future trip to a casino with a larger Tmax. For example, if I get five wins at Tmax, I set aside two; if at least seven wins at Tmax, I set aside three, and so on.  It doesn't happen very often and sometimes takes weeks or months to accumulate at least three of these larger wagers(to warrant a trip). So, this trip I had three "set aside" wagers that would be $5K on their next placement. On this trip, the three wagers finished: 1-1, 0-1, and 0-1.  So, I was a little disappointed as I was optimistic, I could go at least >= 1-1 performance on at least one of them. I'm always optimistic that I can get at least one to slip through the cracks and continue onward/upward. It was not to be.
     Besides the above carried-over wagers my highest in-session wager was $1480.It won.

I saw an old bac comrade at the CO tables.

     I use to frequently play with an elder Vietnamese guy in the Midwest and he frequently plays in Wichita area. It seems every time I play in either of the Colorado cas markets I run into him. He speaks English just slightly better than I speak Vietnamese (approaches zero). So, Bac is our primary shared language.  He seems like a veteran player and wins more than he loses by far. He is very patient and generally will only wager B or P. Maybe only 5-10 wagers in most shoes it seems. It was great to see him/ I enjoyed sharing the tables with him several times on this trip.

     *Awhile back I arrived at a casino in Colorado and approached the Bac pit  on my first day. Upon entering the table pit and baccarat section, I observed an individual standing and signaling for my attention, motioning me over, and indicating that he was experiencing a winning streak.  P had won 11iar(in-a-row) , and it appeared that he caught most of them. He had approx. 8K in front of him. I believe he typically buys in with $2k or so. He indicated he caught most of them and pointed his wins out on the tote board.  After, the 11th P he then switches to B (and wins), then immediately colored up. As we walked to the cashier's cage and then to a different table I asked him why he switched to B after the run reached the  11th P. The response in his best English: "It was done, over."  LOL. I was expecting him to give some logic or explanation of how he interpretated that turn (and end of the P streak).


Thx for reading/ have a good week.

AsymBacGuy in Post #1330 above in response to my post:

"..For some reasons I'm pretty certain that he plays only at RNG shoes (new generation of shuffle machines), am I right?.."

Hi Asym /hope you are taming the tables.

He does indeed play mostly at RNG shoes though not "only" RNG shoes due to his location. He lives in Kansas and in past played alot in Oklahoma Indian casinos. However, he did not like being required to place a Side Bet( B or P) to place any of the bonus wagers such as (T). He also did not like (No Free Hands). So in the past couple years I think he mostly plays in Wichita,Ks,  Kansas City, as well as Tunica.

*I will elaborate more later on some of his triggers. He tracked several triggers/ like me felt "gaps between" events are important to track(e.g. The event gaps' contraction and expansion.)


More later,

"The less you bet, the more you lose when you win." – Bob Nastanovich

Ill have to re-read this post as well as find the link to the story. I think something is missing or maybe a anti-vegas entity paid for the  study/article.
It would be interesting to see how the questions /surveys were worded. However,  I do agree LV has dropped in popularity.

"...There are many parts to good solid MMM. Probably the most important Single aspect of one is the drawdown.  A drawdown is the amount of buy-in you will lose before you really start winning..."

     I agree about the importance of expected drawdown. However, many players do not know or understand normal Variance expected for their bet and skill level(Im talking even-chance wagers). I suspect many players wager too many bets per shoe/ don't realize its all about the NET. For example, if one wagers and Wins=21, Losses=16(NET +5). If one wagers and Wins=11, Losses=6 (NET =5), and on and on.


"...I have witnessed countless players in brick & mortar casinos, that maintain no Bankroll and their Buy-ins are what they consider their Bankroll.  If they lose the session, they have to wait until they have additional funds to gambling again.  Hence, their Buyin is their Bankroll.  And that my friends is completely wrong and extremely mind boggling when they gambling.  It creates pressure and emotional city to the max! .."

     I see this every day. It is my opinion many players are too hard on themselves and have too high expectations of their betting prowess(or lack of). Players badger themselves too much when they lose and or losing in a session. You can see/ sense the self-inflicted pressure when they miss a few bets in a row. Then the fatal chase begins. Then they pull more out of their pocket or go to the cage and get more,...etc. If one is truely risking their buyin then they should expect to bust it occasionally.

Its my opinion most do not have a sufficient bankroll for their buyin/wager size. Of course it also depends on how often one plays. Even if one is just a recreational player they can still expect to see large drawdowns (Variance) in ones bankroll.

For a quick example, lets say one works their job M-F, yet plays every other weekend (all day saturday/sunday) , twice a month, never skipping. Lets say one plays nearly nonstop on both days (4 shoes so 8-9hours) per day. that's 8 shoes per weekend and 16 shoes per month. 16 shoes per month x 12 months =192 Shoes per Year. One could still expect to see massive fluctuations in ones Bankroll (even with an advantage).


The number one calculation a player should do is to know A)If they have an advantage, and B) What is said advantage. All other MM including and most importantly (bankroll-buyin-bet size) should be designed to fit. Flat bet, Pospro, Negpro, pos-neg pro,..etc should also be a function of the above calculations.

     I see many players that claim to be veterans of the Bac table that do not record any data and do not know if they are Net+ or Net- lifetime. They do not know if they have an advantage.


"...If they lose the session, they have to wait until they have additional funds to gambling again...."

     If one has to refuel ones bankroll from outside funds such as paycheck, other investments,...etc than A)They don't have an advantage, or B) They may indeed have an advantage but a weak MM plan, or C) They may have started out with a significantly too small of  bankroll. They did not calculate the Variance one may incur(even with an advantage).

*I see players that have an advantage but they dilute it by hedging their wagers and or they lack self control and discipline.


 More later,

Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent thread.

3) Tie rich shoes should be treated with a lot of caution. The same about shoes resolving hands by utilizing 6 cards.

     I concur 100%. I play with a gentleman that mostly wagers for Tie(He does very well). He has studied Ties for years and only player I've met that primarily makes his money from Tie bets. Its interesting when we set next to each other as Im not a Tie bettor or Tie researcher. However, I do understand what Ties represent. There are many opportunities triggered by Tie Potential/Probability, as well as a shoe with T deficits or surplus. Especially the behavior of (7s outcomes) and their respective Potential/Probabilities.


9) To get a strong advantage we need to win more hands at the first betting attempt than at the second one. So meaning that what we're really looking for is a "first bet" winning cluster.
Therefore consecutive wins at the second betting attempts should be considered as a kind of "backup" plan.

     Well stated/ especially the part about winning the first attempt. This gets into some  topics I've mentioned in previous posts about being patient and waiting for Good, Better, BEST, scenarios. In other words trying to get the W on our first guess. Unrelated to this topic but I also strive to start my shoe with a WIN at the beginning. Again, waiting for the "BEST" spot to place that first wager.



Continued Success,

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.

                                    --AsymBacGuy

Hi Asym

Casinos like randomness and randomness dislikes patterns.



that's a great gambling quote.

Hi AsymBacGuy--I hope u are doing well at the tables.

You are correct. This shoe had several strong deviations. I track shoes so that I can readily see streak distributions more promptly.

I went 14-6(W-L) on this shoe which is a significantly better hit rate than is typical (for me) as well as more wagers per shoe than is typical. I track every wager, hit rate, deviation,..etc.  Most shoes if I make say 10-12 wagers my hit rate is often something like 7-5 or 5-7, 7-6,5-4, 3-5...etc. 
I wagered more than usual and actually had a couple misses (against) on the longer streaks before going with the deviation for a few consecutive Ws. I did not follow the streaks to their very end because of several atypical profiles being presented. The long singles run I actually started incrementally regressing my wager all the way back down to near my base unit/didn't want to regress below my base unit. Plus the streak was so abnormal I felt confident it "must end sometime".

A couple of the events I looked back and thought: "How did I miss that ________",....etc. 

________________________________________________________________________________________

0=B , 1=P, 3 Ties that are not shown in the following as I transferred this manually from my scoring card.

000000011001 0 111111 0

1 0 1001 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0

11 0 11 0 1 0 1 0 11 0 11 0 1 0 11 0 1

0 110010000100

______________________________________________________________





Continued Success To All,

I have been on a multi-day trip and will try to elaborate more within a couple days.

I have been on a multi-week winning streak at my home market. Meaning, I have not busted a buyin in several weeks. Often I bust a buyin every 4-5 days or so in part due to my aggressive pos progression approach. I prefer not to boast or speak of winning streaks(During the ongoing streak) as not to "jinx" them. I know that's a superstition on my part.

I did bust a buyin on my current multi-day trip.


A highlight shoe on this trip was a shoe that produced 15 B singles in a row. Meaning B was stuck on 1iar(In-A-Row). Unfortunately I did not catch 15 wins in that run. Just prior to that I saw each side with approx 7iar runs. I will show the outcomes/elaborate more on this later.

Have a good week,

Personally, I will not be placing a wager on this event. It is my opinion this type of wagering is not a good look for the gambling world(or society).

To each their own I guess.

https://www.casino.org/news/polymarket-allows-gambling-on-new-orleans-jailbreak/

Good discussion.

"...@lovepreaks

Do you have a defined probability model for pattern transitions—particularly from asymmetric to symmetric (A→S) or symmetric to asymmetric (S→A)?
For example, is a 0.75 probability for A→S transitions a reasonable estimate?  ..."

Excellent Q @lovespreaks. I had a similar question but you beat me to it. You presented my exact thoughts very well.


Great reply AsymBacGuy/thx for elaborating in your response.

Asym:

"Since we need to place two bets to define the asymmetry (if the first bet was lost), yes we'll expect A to get a 0.75 p, so the A/S ratio should be 3:1.
That's in theory because in many RNG productions the number of S is way higher than 0.25(!).

Nonetheless S status is more frequent but tend to change faster than at other shufflings.
Maybe betting A-A one time is the safest pattern to look for, then betting A after S-S."


More on this great discussion in a couple days.kfb

"The fifth round NFL Draft pick is making roughly $4.6 million over the next four years. Sanders has announced what he'll be spending his first NFL paycheck on...

Shadeur Sanders:

"..."I'm not tryna buy anything," Sanders told reporters. "My signing bonus ain't that high right now.".."

Congrats to sanders for getting drafted in the fifth round. I don't watch NFL draft day shows. However, from what I understand from radio sports podcasters is Shadeur, his dad(Deon), and media all projected him to go in the first round.
Probably a dozen other QBs that were drafted in latter rounds or had to sign free agent contracts(Generally with fewer guarantees). So no one wanting him until 5th round may work in his favor.

I think the Browns will be a great fit for Sanders(For a variety of reasons). Im sure Browns VP of player personnel (Andrew Berry) will give him every possible opportunity to succeed(For a variety of reasons). Plus his salary is low enough that Browns will not feel pressured to move on from him quickly. Meaning, his salary won't really hurt their salary cap. So Shadeur will likely get several years to do something productive as per typical NFL salaries he is not costing them much.

Plus, per a sports podcast recently: Shadeur having an older veteran QB to mentor him (Deshaun Watson), may expedite his adaptation to the NFL. The podcasters suggested that Deshaun has been injured a lot. Deshaun has a guaranteed salary regardless if he plays every week or seldom(i.e., He gets paid the same). I don't know if Deshaun is the mentoring type but its my understanding he does bring several years of experience to the table.

Shadeur (from the above quote) seems to have the right attitude about his football career / money. Plus he can always fall back on his degree from the University of Colorado should his NFL career not progress as planned.

I wish him well.