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1
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« on: Yesterday at 04:07:31 pm »
Hi Albalaha
As always thx for your timely replies.
I know you have spent years studying live bac data. My questions:
A) Per lets say a <=10,000 decision random sample what is largest extreme (-) variance u have seen with live table outcomes (e.g., -5.2SD, -4.8, -5.9,..etc)? Choose either side P or B for our discussion.
B) "" "" (+)Variance u have seen (e.g., +5.2sd,...etc)?
C) Do you typically see both extremes within the same sample approach similar levels(e.g., one side lets say reaches an apex of -5.0sd and the other side lets say had a maximum spread +4.9sd )
?
"OR" do you more often see one side take off in the lead and the other never really draw even after the first couple thousand decisions?
Many Thanks,
As always thx for your timely replies.
I know you have spent years studying live bac data. My questions:
A) Per lets say a <=10,000 decision random sample what is largest extreme (-) variance u have seen with live table outcomes (e.g., -5.2SD, -4.8, -5.9,..etc)? Choose either side P or B for our discussion.
B) "" "" (+)Variance u have seen (e.g., +5.2sd,...etc)?
C) Do you typically see both extremes within the same sample approach similar levels(e.g., one side lets say reaches an apex of -5.0sd and the other side lets say had a maximum spread +4.9sd )
?"OR" do you more often see one side take off in the lead and the other never really draw even after the first couple thousand decisions?
Many Thanks,
2
Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« on: Yesterday at 03:15:49 pm »
Thx AsymBacGuy
Appreciate your efforts-please don't spend much time on it as I will in the meantime look at other sources such as gamblersbookstore in LV, et al.
cheers,
Appreciate your efforts-please don't spend much time on it as I will in the meantime look at other sources such as gamblersbookstore in LV, et al.
cheers,
3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 08, 2021, 03:58:27 pm »
Thx AsymBacGuy for elaboration.
What are the original BP sequences capable to get long and univocal both original and derived outcomes per every shoe dealt?
Just two.
Long BP chops and long consecutive streaks, both being quite unlikely to happen.
I agree. Yet that is what a majority of players are primarily waiting for in every shoe. IMO the tote board design contributes alot to this pursuit and anticipation. It would be interesting to see the change in betting patterns/habits if all of a sudden the design of the tote board changed from the Up-down/L-R layout that is currently utilized.
Thus imo it's not about how much the chopping propensity come out but about how many times it will come out per every shoe played.
Good statement.
Thx as always,
What are the original BP sequences capable to get long and univocal both original and derived outcomes per every shoe dealt?
Just two.
Long BP chops and long consecutive streaks, both being quite unlikely to happen.
I agree. Yet that is what a majority of players are primarily waiting for in every shoe. IMO the tote board design contributes alot to this pursuit and anticipation. It would be interesting to see the change in betting patterns/habits if all of a sudden the design of the tote board changed from the Up-down/L-R layout that is currently utilized.
Thus imo it's not about how much the chopping propensity come out but about how many times it will come out per every shoe played.
Good statement.
Thx as always,
4
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« on: April 08, 2021, 03:37:52 pm »
Thx Albalaha
re: "I use extreme variance management to ward off the worst possible..."
Do you also ward off the best possible to the exact same level??
Lets say (e.g., -4SD to +4SD), OR are u more likely to do a predetermined setup such as : (-4SD to +2SD, ....etc ) ?? Other?
thx,kfb
re: "I use extreme variance management to ward off the worst possible..."
Do you also ward off the best possible to the exact same level??
Lets say (e.g., -4SD to +4SD), OR are u more likely to do a predetermined setup such as : (-4SD to +2SD, ....etc ) ?? Other?
thx,kfb
5
Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« on: April 08, 2021, 03:11:41 pm »
Hi AsymBacGuy
Im still searching for the (Playing Baccarat as a business) book. Nothing on amzn or eb. In my searches I did discover the vast number of books(various gambling et al topics) that Malmuth has published. I knew he published alot on poker, however, I wasn't aware of the multitude on other topics.
AsymBacGuy: "Baccarat was invented in Italy but definitely solved in Asia"
Define solved.
Continued Success
Im still searching for the (Playing Baccarat as a business) book. Nothing on amzn or eb. In my searches I did discover the vast number of books(various gambling et al topics) that Malmuth has published. I knew he published alot on poker, however, I wasn't aware of the multitude on other topics.
AsymBacGuy: "Baccarat was invented in Italy but definitely solved in Asia"
Define solved.
Continued Success
6
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« on: April 07, 2021, 05:47:17 pm »
Hi Albalaha
How many of you go for a trigger to start bet?
I do though I don't view my trigger(s) as being causal to the outcomes. One thing(trigger) I generally do when I sit down at a new shoe and immediately post-cut. I like to wait for the outcomes to hit the other side/back to orig outcome (as a minimum wait), prior to placing my first wager. E.G., PPBP, with the third P being a trigger to consider placing a wager going forward.
Nothing scientific or projective about it. Simply a way as to not allow the cut to dictate the first few outcomes at a short-term stage where results are random and more difficult to discern(at least for me). Mostly due to the simple fact we don't have any intel at that point. Of course I would be first to agree that most anything we do as an attempt to tame undesirable variance will also dilute the desirable variance,...etc.
Do you think it useful/helpful?
My perception is Yes, as it helps with my above objective. Though may or may not increase my hit/miss ratio.
IMO anything we do to reduce number of hands wagered at random is beneficial. At least for me, I don't have any perceived +ev strategies that would help on the first hand following the cut(especially in cas that don't show the burn cards). If required to wager that first post-cut hand I might be slightly more inclined to put it on P.
In my humble opinion and observation, it doesn't change probability further but it could be utilized to ward off the worst possible probabilities and if we take multiple triggers together and their net total impact, I found it helpful logically and probability wise too. We should not expect any in built advantage with any trigger or flat bet win with it.
I agree in that most triggers won't change probability. However, they could possibly make us enter a wager when a W is perceived to be more probable. Also, as u mention above it could help ward off(side step) a negative cluster of outcomes, thus , potentially preserving bullets until we are getting the best of it.
re: Triggers, Im always reminded that a perceived beneficial trigger for my side of the wager has just created the exact opposite perception for approx 50% of my table mates(and vice versa).
Albalaha--what are a couple of your favorite triggers to sidestep losing clusters?
Thx/Continued Success,
How many of you go for a trigger to start bet?
I do though I don't view my trigger(s) as being causal to the outcomes. One thing(trigger) I generally do when I sit down at a new shoe and immediately post-cut. I like to wait for the outcomes to hit the other side/back to orig outcome (as a minimum wait), prior to placing my first wager. E.G., PPBP, with the third P being a trigger to consider placing a wager going forward.
Nothing scientific or projective about it. Simply a way as to not allow the cut to dictate the first few outcomes at a short-term stage where results are random and more difficult to discern(at least for me). Mostly due to the simple fact we don't have any intel at that point. Of course I would be first to agree that most anything we do as an attempt to tame undesirable variance will also dilute the desirable variance,...etc.
Do you think it useful/helpful?
My perception is Yes, as it helps with my above objective. Though may or may not increase my hit/miss ratio.
IMO anything we do to reduce number of hands wagered at random is beneficial. At least for me, I don't have any perceived +ev strategies that would help on the first hand following the cut(especially in cas that don't show the burn cards). If required to wager that first post-cut hand I might be slightly more inclined to put it on P.
In my humble opinion and observation, it doesn't change probability further but it could be utilized to ward off the worst possible probabilities and if we take multiple triggers together and their net total impact, I found it helpful logically and probability wise too. We should not expect any in built advantage with any trigger or flat bet win with it.
I agree in that most triggers won't change probability. However, they could possibly make us enter a wager when a W is perceived to be more probable. Also, as u mention above it could help ward off(side step) a negative cluster of outcomes, thus , potentially preserving bullets until we are getting the best of it.
re: Triggers, Im always reminded that a perceived beneficial trigger for my side of the wager has just created the exact opposite perception for approx 50% of my table mates(and vice versa).
Albalaha--what are a couple of your favorite triggers to sidestep losing clusters?
Thx/Continued Success,
7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 07, 2021, 04:09:22 pm »
Good Day AsymBacGuy
Thx for your reply to my followup question.
Asym:
Hi KFB!
As Key cards I'm referring to 9s, 8s, 7s and 6s.
.Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."
kfb initial followup question/statement:
kfb:
Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a
little more on this sentence.
Asym:Btw, I'm interested to know your opinion about this, thanks in advance!
as.
kfb
IMO the propensity to get higher ITCPs does NOT remain the same and does indeed change if no key cards (6,7,8,9) were
involved in the process.
My initial thought was that lets say : KCR=KeyCardRemaing = x, and Total Cards Remaining(TCR)=y , then our kcr/tcr
ratio at this given point in the shoe is lets say x/y. We don't know exactly the numerical value of x or y. However, the next
hands' cards are A,B,C,D. You/I are at the table together and had both just departed to the restroom and upon our return
asked the dealer: How many cards were dealt in that most recent hand? Four. We follow up with : Did cards A,B,C,or D
have a value of 6,7,8, or 9? Dealer: No.
Thus my aforementioned statement was that although we don't know the values for ABCD(ignore which side won or any
other implications),
we do know that our KCR/TCR=x/y ratio has changed from x/y to x/y-4, and we also obviously can't be
100% certain of how many, if any, KCR remain(0,16,12...etc).
So my thinking is the propensity to get higher ITCPs does not remain the same and has indeed changed(albeit very
slightly). Obviously many other factors we could take into consideration but for simple illustrative purposes that is the gist
of my previous inquiry.
Continue Success,
Thx for your reply to my followup question.
Asym:
Hi KFB!
As Key cards I'm referring to 9s, 8s, 7s and 6s.
.Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."
kfb initial followup question/statement:
kfb:
Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a
little more on this sentence.
Asym:Btw, I'm interested to know your opinion about this, thanks in advance!
as.
kfb
IMO the propensity to get higher ITCPs does NOT remain the same and does indeed change if no key cards (6,7,8,9) were
involved in the process.
My initial thought was that lets say : KCR=KeyCardRemaing = x, and Total Cards Remaining(TCR)=y , then our kcr/tcr
ratio at this given point in the shoe is lets say x/y. We don't know exactly the numerical value of x or y. However, the next
hands' cards are A,B,C,D. You/I are at the table together and had both just departed to the restroom and upon our return
asked the dealer: How many cards were dealt in that most recent hand? Four. We follow up with : Did cards A,B,C,or D
have a value of 6,7,8, or 9? Dealer: No.
Thus my aforementioned statement was that although we don't know the values for ABCD(ignore which side won or any
other implications),
we do know that our KCR/TCR=x/y ratio has changed from x/y to x/y-4, and we also obviously can't be
100% certain of how many, if any, KCR remain(0,16,12...etc).
So my thinking is the propensity to get higher ITCPs does not remain the same and has indeed changed(albeit very
slightly). Obviously many other factors we could take into consideration but for simple illustrative purposes that is the gist
of my previous inquiry.
Continue Success,
8
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Which one will you prefer and why?
« on: April 05, 2021, 06:09:02 pm »
Hi Albalaha
Trick Question
I will raise my hand first and shall select option: B
That is, without saying "it depends", or "what is the players objective", or "mr professor please clarify long run", "clarify earns averagely in average sessions" ...etc.
So my final answer: B
Continued Success,
Trick Question
I will raise my hand first and shall select option: B
That is, without saying "it depends", or "what is the players objective", or "mr professor please clarify long run", "clarify earns averagely in average sessions" ...etc.
So my final answer: B
Continued Success,
9
Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« on: April 05, 2021, 05:51:23 pm »
Thx AsymBacGuy
re: -Playing Baccarat as a business
I don't recall reading this so will follow your recommendation / check it out.
Cheers,
re: -Playing Baccarat as a business
I don't recall reading this so will follow your recommendation / check it out.
Cheers,
10
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Millionaire's plan: My dream project
« on: April 05, 2021, 05:48:16 pm »
Good Morning Albalaha
Thx for your posts--Im watching your new project(millionaires plan) with interest/intrigue.
ALB:
"...To do this perfectly, I need a table limit of 1-1000 to be safest and surest but I would try to finalize it in a table limit of 1-100 too..."
That bet spread is my dream scenario. I most commonly see $50--2k, with occasional 25-1k and 25-2k, occasionally travel to get a $50--5k,...etc.
"...to win at least 100 units per session with a risk of like amount of loss and probability to get a losing session should not be more than 20%. Once accomplished, nothing will be left for me but to play, play and keep playing fearlessly.
It is a hybrid type MM (positive aided with negative progression) and could be trigger based. Playing with trigger will ensure this 80:20 win: loss sessions..."
I like your ideas/ the implementation of 20% rule as I find that applicable to many things(gambling and nongambling alike).
I utilize this metric (>=20%) quite often within a variety of PosPro wagering approaches. I like to set it as a my initial /lowest win (and session exit) stages, along with >=50% and >=100%, as i find it beneficial to set trailing stops and never leave a winning streak.
To verbalize, as I enter a session my thought process: "I think I can win >=20% of my buyin "first" as in "before" the casino
can win 100% of my buyin. The best odds for me are obviously at the very beginning of the session when my balance is : -0- .
In an even-chance game with weighted wagers I like our chances.
Continued Success to you Albalaha,
Thx for your posts--Im watching your new project(millionaires plan) with interest/intrigue.
ALB:
"...To do this perfectly, I need a table limit of 1-1000 to be safest and surest but I would try to finalize it in a table limit of 1-100 too..."
That bet spread is my dream scenario. I most commonly see $50--2k, with occasional 25-1k and 25-2k, occasionally travel to get a $50--5k,...etc.
"...to win at least 100 units per session with a risk of like amount of loss and probability to get a losing session should not be more than 20%. Once accomplished, nothing will be left for me but to play, play and keep playing fearlessly.
It is a hybrid type MM (positive aided with negative progression) and could be trigger based. Playing with trigger will ensure this 80:20 win: loss sessions..."
I like your ideas/ the implementation of 20% rule as I find that applicable to many things(gambling and nongambling alike).
I utilize this metric (>=20%) quite often within a variety of PosPro wagering approaches. I like to set it as a my initial /lowest win (and session exit) stages, along with >=50% and >=100%, as i find it beneficial to set trailing stops and never leave a winning streak.
To verbalize, as I enter a session my thought process: "I think I can win >=20% of my buyin "first" as in "before" the casino
can win 100% of my buyin. The best odds for me are obviously at the very beginning of the session when my balance is : -0- .
In an even-chance game with weighted wagers I like our chances.
Continued Success to you Albalaha,
11
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 05, 2021, 04:59:57 pm »
Hi AsymBacGuy
In your first post on 3/30 you state:
"...Normally card distributions will produce "more likely" back to back ITCPs, as the average key card distribution itlr will make a huge impact over the final two-card point results (not final results!).
It's true that key cards could easily combine with a second low or worthless card, anyway itlr it's way more likely to get a winning point whenever a key card had fallen on that side than to face the opposite situation.
Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees, meaning it's restricted within measurable (then exploitable) terms...."
To clarify: When you say "KEY CARDS" do you indeed mean 8/9 as in main cards to keep P from drawing. OR Do you mean key cards as in side-favoring cards such as 6/4 that may or may not keep P from drawing? thx in advance .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AsymBacGuy: "...Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."
kfb:
Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a little more on this sentence.
Thx/ Continued Success,
In your first post on 3/30 you state:
"...Normally card distributions will produce "more likely" back to back ITCPs, as the average key card distribution itlr will make a huge impact over the final two-card point results (not final results!).
It's true that key cards could easily combine with a second low or worthless card, anyway itlr it's way more likely to get a winning point whenever a key card had fallen on that side than to face the opposite situation.
Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees, meaning it's restricted within measurable (then exploitable) terms...."
To clarify: When you say "KEY CARDS" do you indeed mean 8/9 as in main cards to keep P from drawing. OR Do you mean key cards as in side-favoring cards such as 6/4 that may or may not keep P from drawing? thx in advance .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AsymBacGuy: "...Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."
kfb:
Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a little more on this sentence.
Thx/ Continued Success,
12
Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« on: March 28, 2021, 04:36:45 am »
Gambling Theory(Mason Malmuth)
One of my favorite quotes by Malmuth: "...Serious gamblers makes the most of it when he has the best of it..."
This is what all gamblers, no matter what their game, should constantly be striving for.
Malmuth writes in a dry style as if a college math textbook(similar to how college math instructors instruct) so not an easy relaxing read with heroic/massive wins stories often seen in gambling books.
Malmuth writes for the serious gambler/ spends alot of pages discussing SD, Variance, Required bankroll for players that gamble for a living, budgeting, risk of ruin,....etc. Several formulas worth reviewing from time to time.
Mostly written for poker-type games though can be generalized to most games.
I read some time ago/ still review certain formulas /appendix a couple times a year. My version was early 2000s "I think" so he may have later versions and other publications since then.
*Worth the money IMO
One of my favorite quotes by Malmuth: "...Serious gamblers makes the most of it when he has the best of it..."
This is what all gamblers, no matter what their game, should constantly be striving for.
Malmuth writes in a dry style as if a college math textbook(similar to how college math instructors instruct) so not an easy relaxing read with heroic/massive wins stories often seen in gambling books.
Malmuth writes for the serious gambler/ spends alot of pages discussing SD, Variance, Required bankroll for players that gamble for a living, budgeting, risk of ruin,....etc. Several formulas worth reviewing from time to time.
Mostly written for poker-type games though can be generalized to most games.
I read some time ago/ still review certain formulas /appendix a couple times a year. My version was early 2000s "I think" so he may have later versions and other publications since then.
*Worth the money IMO
13
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 26, 2021, 04:29:43 pm »
Greetings AsymBacGuy
On pg 14 of this thread you stated:
"...Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2020, 09:49:04 pm »
Quote
Instead of thinking as baccarat as a BP outcomes game, we should consider the average probability to get a shoe composition prompting certain degrees of math advantaged situations..."
?On average how many "math advantaged situations" do you typically find per shoe?
IOW what is the Mean and Mode # of wagers for you per shoe----"on avg" ??
Thanks in advance,
On pg 14 of this thread you stated:
"...Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2020, 09:49:04 pm »
Quote
Instead of thinking as baccarat as a BP outcomes game, we should consider the average probability to get a shoe composition prompting certain degrees of math advantaged situations..."
?On average how many "math advantaged situations" do you typically find per shoe?
IOW what is the Mean and Mode # of wagers for you per shoe----"on avg" ??
Thanks in advance,
14
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: Millionaire's plan: My dream project
« on: March 23, 2021, 05:00:05 pm »
Good luck Albalaha with your newest project: Millionaires Plan.
"...I got excited to read the book, "13 at the bank" but.."
I agree it's a good read--david vs goliath.
Continued Success,
"...I got excited to read the book, "13 at the bank" but.."
I agree it's a good read--david vs goliath.
Continued Success,
15
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 23, 2021, 04:41:42 pm »
AsymBacGuy:
"...discipline doesn't turn an EV- game into a profitable one.
Probability to win as disciplined players is the same as being undisciplined.
Discipline intended as a way to restrict the field of operation probably helps to lose less but surely doesn't help to win itlr..."
"...discipline doesn't turn an EV- game into a profitable one.
Probability to win as disciplined players is the same as being undisciplined.
Discipline intended as a way to restrict the field of operation probably helps to lose less but surely doesn't help to win itlr..."