Rolling High

Walking through the casino, cash in my pocket
Feeling bold, All hundreds, Buying in let's go
I'm ready, the chips shimmer like pure gold
BetSelection's got my back, where truth's the only game
And from my first wager of the night
Any drama and fakery, vanish like a faint flame. 

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection, my guide in this thrilling night. 

Black and purple chips are my ammunition, I wage my war
Against the house's natural 8s, oh what a score
Winning with my natural 9s! Bring it on, it's all good
EZ, 5 Treasures, Macau style, it don't matter how they play
When the cards are dealt just right, they all turn my way. 

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned.
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection my guide in this thrilling night. 

It's what it's all about, under the neon skies
Facts and figures, no disguise, no more lies
Entering the casino with a mission
BetSelection by my side, Always Always Forever
Feeling the rush, a roller coaster ride. 

From Atlantic City to Las Vegas
From Connecticut's largest to Los Angeles' crowded
From South Florida's Hard Rocks to the Midwest
Been there and played most all without much changing
The amazing Asians, wonderful Whites and
Let's not forget a few other nationalities
That venture into our world, the world of Bac

One thing for sure that is guaranteed not a loser
Same as a natural 9 and you know what I mean
And that my friend is BetSelection
Bring it on, 24/7/365 cause we are here
High five, fist bump, big hugs for those huge wins

Rolling high with BetSelection, the real deal in my hand, Slamming down those natural 9s, just like I planned.
In a world of glitz and glitter
It's the truth that shines bright
BetSelection, my guide in this thrilling night.

And we worked on this one for awhile:

Baccarat Bonanza

Slamming cards on the felt, the lights shining bright,
Risking it all under the neon night,
Bets going down, the chips stack high,
This is the casino, where dreams never die.
Swiping my card, feel the rush in my veins,
Exchanging dollars for chips, breaking the chains,
Sipping on whiskey, feeling the thrill,
I'm ready to play, ready for that skill.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


Natural nine vs a natural eight,
The crowd holds its breath, it's a high-stakes fate,
Cards on the table, it's a battle of pride,
With every round won, Never losing my stride.
The dealer caught off guard, in awe of my luck,
While I'm counting my chips, he's running amok,
Each victory crown, a crown of my own,
In the heart of the city, this thrill I have grown.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


Skill for some, and luck for others,
In this grand game, we all find our brothers,
Blackjack, poker, craps, slots but Baccarat is my jam,
With every new round, I'm a part of this fam.
The clinking of chips, the music so loud,
In the casino's realm, I'm feeling so proud,
Fingers crossed tight, for that natural win,
In this tangled dance, it's where I begin.


Oh, Baccarat bonanza, luck on my side,
Slamming down nines, ready for the ride,
Dealer's jaw drops, can't believe his eyes,
Winning hand after hand, I'm reaching for the skies.
Asian players stare, shaking heads in doubt,
But this game's for all, let me hear you shout!


With cash in my pocket, I'm leaving my mark,
In the heat of the game, igniting the spark,
Casino life may be wild, but it's where I belong,
Baccarat my anthem, my heart's steady song.

Baccarat Soul


Step into the light where the chips all gleam,
In the heart of the night, living out a dream,
Cards on the felt, hear the dealer call,
It's a game of Baccarat, where I rise or fall.
Money in my hand, it's a rush like no other,
The thrill of the game, oh, it's like a lover.
Natural nines coming, I'm riding on high,
Asian players staring, man, they can't deny.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


Whispers in the air as the chips exchange,
Every flip of a card feels a little deranged,
Eyes on the table, the tension can build,
But with every wager, my fortune's fulfilled.
The crowd gathers 'round, they can't look away,
How I conjure up wins, in a magical play,
Counting my blessings as the fates intertwine,
In the world of Baccarat, I'm feeling divine.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


The felt beneath my fingers, it's soft and it's grand,
With every chip stacked high, I'm making my stand,
All the glimmers and the glamour, it's hard to resist,
In the game of chance, I'm lost in bliss.
Asian players amazed, asking how it's done,
But in the dance of the cards, it feels like pure fun,
Natural nines flowing, like a river of gold,
In this Baccarat table, my story unfolds.


Baccarat nights, where the fortunes change,
Winning hand after hand, never feels strange,
Five Treasures waiting, with side bets to find,
In this casino glow, I'm leaving fears behind.


So raise your glass high, let's toast to the night,
To the thrill of the chase, everything feels right,
With money on the felt, and dreams in the air,
In the world of Baccarat, I'm beyond compare.
Every hand is a chance, or every spin and roll,
In this soulful casino, I'm reclaiming my soul.

A casino friend that is into composing rock and also soul songs is putting together a few songs for us. 

Here is the first one.  Music to follow soon:

In the world of spinning wheels, truths untold
Where casinos glitter, but their secrets grow old
There's a beacon shining bright so you'll have the sight
A forum true and bold BetSelection's here to light your soul with gold. 

Oh, BetSelection, you stand the test of time
In a web of rumors, you're the rhythm with endless time
The only drama-free sanctuary you'll ever need
With the wisdom and the truth to succeed.

When the noise of wannabes tries to drown your mind
They spin their copycat tales, but you'll always find
BetSelection's got the facts, a guiding kind
Ready to entertain, inform, and unwind. 

Oh, BetSelection, you stand the test of time
In a web of rumors, you're the rhythm with time
The only drama-free sanctuary you'll ever need
With the wisdom and the truth to succeed. 

24/7, every day, 365 it rocks, A haven on the 'net
Where the gamblers talk, Whether it's Baccarat
Or anything else high stakes for sure
BetSelection's the real deal, it unlocks the block. 

Oh, BetSelection, you stand the test of time
In a web of rumors, you're the rhythm with time
The only drama-free sanctuary you'll ever need
With the wisdom and the truth to succeed. 

It is what it is, as the old saying goes
BetSelection's the place where true wisdom flows.

You wrote, "Conversely, playing towards low levels of presentation will suffer from the inevitable strong deviations.
In the meanwhile HE adds more damage to our bankroll.

The same about betting half of the hands dealt or 1/3 (or more) of the hands dealt.

If you stay away from betting you are not losing anything, I don't recall any long term winning player betting more than few or very few hands per shoe."

I wrote,  "Expectations are extremely dangerous to a player. By expecting presentations to be a certain way you are removing yourself from the reality of the shoe. 

If you remove yourself from expectations of what should happen/ occur and how it should, you become impartial and more open to the possibility of what the shoe will produce.  You pay attention in a different perspective that will be to your advantage.

BAC is complex and your awareness is crucial to profitability. Expectations are great in planning and armchair quarterbacking, but at the table they are extremely dangerous and bankroll drainers in every aspect whatsoever."

More in my thread I wrote just before you wrote the above I quoted.


https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=12019.msg73214;topicseen#msg73214

Besides of the strategy employed, when we play every hand we'll get an inferior number of long winning streaks than long losing streaks for the simple reason that most patterns get a low level of univocal presentation so making difficult (impossible) to be more right than wrong.
Conversely, playing towards low levels of presentation will suffer from the inevitable strong deviations.
In the meanwhile HE adds more damage to our bankroll.

The same about betting half of the hands dealt or 1/3 (or more) of the hands dealt.

If you stay away from betting you are not losing anything, I don't recall any long term winning player betting more than few or very few hands per shoe.

Make an experiment and register how many times you would have won or lost if you were to bet every hand, then half of the hands dealt and so on. The different W/L lines will esponentially get better results in inverse relationship of the betting frequency (HE discounted).   

The AS/S "scheme" is an example of that.
Despite of being very slight unfavorite to proportionally come out over S patterns by mere quantities, A patterns are generally more manageable to be forecasted just because at baccarat clusters of something are slight more likely to happen for card distributions and rules issues.

On the other end, if S>A, 1-step A winning ranges must be more likely included within short ranges so making more room to the slight likely S patterns happening at the 2-step.
And when a S cluster had shown up in the actual shoe there's a slight probability it will repeat again, so restraining us to wager toward getting the future S as isolated.

oOoOo

Since we are strong believers that the only way to ascertain an advantage is by flat betting, say we want to collect many fictional players working for us and wagering different A/S situations.
The basic assumption we rely upon is the AVERAGE RANDOM card distribution.
Obviously and even though it appears as somewhat complicated, that's just a simplified version of what we're actually using at the tables.

Player #1 will be responsible of the mere 1-step A situation, he will register how many consecutive times he would have won or lost the first attempt and is set up at -3/-4. Meaning that he will advice us to bet in order to reverse ONE TIME that negative range.
It's true that the same specular positive cutoff value (+3/+4) should be more entitled to reverse toward the negative field, but after reading Alrelax valuable suggestions and knowing that actual shoes are not so randomly distributed we preferred to let it go a positive amount without betting or possibly riding the positive 1-step wave (see below)

Player #2 will be responsible of the 2-step A situation, acting by the same guidelines seen above for the Player #1.

Player #3 will take care of the A clustered appearances (so full betting the two steps) knowing that isolated A coming out in a row, despite of being relatively rare, are more likely intertwined by S isolated events.

Player #4 is the one supporting long term data telling us that A clusters longer than three vs A clusters of exact lenght of three (A3+:A3 ratio)  will be distributed by a super high balanced ratio favoring a betting towards A3+ patterns. There are several options to exploit this feature, for sure a strong negative variance is very very very unlikely.

Notice that I haven't included in this simplified plan the S shape appearance, at least by direct terms.
First, it doesn't make much sense to be so interested about a 0.25 probability distribution.
Second and more importantly, actual shuffling machines seem to make more probable S clusters giving us no valuable insights to assess their average impact, mostly as their production is not random.

BTW, there's a reason why Player#1 and #2 won't get precise cutoff values (-3 or -4 and +3 or +4), let's wonder why. 

as.

Hey!  If it's Christmas morning there's only one place for me to be.

AD

The basic foundation why we should play baccarat with an edge relies upon the probability that along the course of each shoe some events are more likely than expected, negative and positive variance considered.

Sayed that, we've made interesting studies about different bac productions, anyway knowing that in some instances things could change as casinos (or shuffling machine manufacturers) are not babies in the wood.
Neither we are.

Basically we've concluded that nowadays many shoes dealt lack of the "true random" feature as we compared them with a more reliable randomness source and you know what I'm talking about.
The fact that shoes are not properly random shuffled doesn't necessarily mean that "patterns" are getting more or less detectable forms, just that the cards are not randomly shuffled.

That's why we started to consider shoes by the asym/sym feature getting more constant values at real random shoes but strong volatile situations at supposedly unrandom productions.

So the "average shoe" concept I kept stressing in this thread works only at true random shuffled shoes.
Then what to do when we'd think the shoes we're playing at are unrandomly shuffled?

Well, our basic answer (besides of the important fact that we can't be so wrong while following, at least partially, what the shoe is producing) is to assess the AS/S factor of the patterns that can be devised by infinite ways (sub random walks applied to the original BP sequence).

Rhythm and symmetry are the key words.

For example, ABABAB..sequence is rhythmic and asymmetrical up to the step 3 whereas a succession as AABAABAAB..is rhythmic and asymmetrical.

If (key) cards are asymmetrically distributed and the rules favor an asymmetrical distribution of the results, we could dare to make the conclusion that patterns will be more asymmetrically distributed than symmetrically shaped.

On the other end, rhythmic symmetrical patterns (ABAABB.. or AAABBBAABBA..) are less likely to happen or, at least, getting low sd values to happen.
Once a same pattern had shown up symmetrically (so two times in a row) we let it go until it shifts into a different pattern. Since we have learnt that patterns should be only classified into 1s, 2s and 3/3+s, we know we have to register in the AS/S form the three most common pattern situations.

As a general guideline, isolated S are more likely to come out in a row and when they are not most of the times A clusters will show up.
When a S cluster (more likely in the S-S double form) shows up, our data suggest that the future probability of getting another S cluster vs an isolated S is slight endorsed, that is getting a higher than 1:3 probability to appear (remember we utilize a 0.75%, two-step probability to win).
More generally speaking, an abnormal number of S events happening at one shoe will teach us that asymmetry is somewhat "silenced", a sign that we shouldn't bet (or bet again) at that shoe.

Talking about the 0.75% probability to win, one could argue that there are no differences between a single/double vs 3/3+s streaks plan or the AS/S plan and that's the beauty of picking up the subtleties of this game.
Technically the first plan relies upon the unlikelihood to get many shoe portions of side predominance of 6:1 or 6:2 (or more), the AS/S plan will make a kind of conditional probability to be working as any shoe dealt presenting strong S pattern predominance more often than not will deny a proper A balancement whatever considered.

Here some shoes considered by the AS/S feature and according to the rules described in my pages. Since some casinos will cut off a lot of cards from the play the sequences will be considered by "cores".

1) A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-(-1)

That's an 'easy' shoe, all A clusters and all isolated S.

2) S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S

Another good shoe except for the isolated A happening at 11th spot of the succession.

3) A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-S

Notice the S clusters repeating at the end of the shoe.

4) A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A

A perfect shoe

5) S-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-A

The first S cluster makes less appealing the next S situation. In this scenario an isolated S event happened but I wouldn't suggest to bet for A after the second S came out.
Just in case, all A came out in clusters.

6) A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A

Despite of its univocal shape, this sequence will get us just three wins before vig.

7) A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S

According to the staregic rules depicted above, here it's impossible to lose.

A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-S-S

A strong S deviated shoe that shows up the importance of not chasing A after a S clustered sequence.

9) S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-A-A

A slight negative shoe

10) A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-A

A relative unlikely shoe where up to 8 consecutive bets were lost in the initial portion of the shoe unless the first S cluster had refrained us to play for the next S to be isolated.

In total we got +2 units before vig despite of having an unfavourable AS/S 109/115 pattern ratio.

See you in a couple fo days

as.

Asym up above:

"...without a verified edge the player's bankroll will invariably decline "[/color
    The absolute most important thing a player can do is to confirm(or refute) if one has an advantage. Most importantly use that advantage(or disadvantage) for designing ones money mgmt. Bankroll, Buyin, and Betsize (along with progression, regression, and or flat) should be a function of this figure.

"...Paradoxically doing so they are lowering the math disadvantage by implementing the 'Bold strategy' that teaches us that at any EV- game the best move to adopt is betting large amounts in just one hand or very few hands..."

    IMO if one doesn't have a verified advantage then pressing(Pos pro) is the absolute worse thing a player can do as one is "turbocharging" the casinos' H.E. against ones self.
    My preference is to do a pospro so majority of Ls are at or near the Base Unit(BU).


Op at the top:
"..BANKROLL.  Your total funds set aside for gambling risk.

BUY-IN.  Your funds at risk you bring to the casino for each session. .."

*IMO one should start by clearing writing out ones specific objective/then work backward in how to hit said target win.

I feel one should have ratios that when one completes a win it is large enough to move the needle(meaning increase the overall bank roll).

What I often see (perceive as I don't ask players what is your objective): They have unrealistic expectation of bet size to buyin(e.g., buyin with 1k with a goal of making 5k,...etc). My perception is that most players do not really have a bankroll to support their buyin(Thus they seem to be in panic mode when they are approaching a bust). I bust a  buyin every 10-14 days of playing and kinda expect it based on the Variance I have chosen.

*Though I recently went on a 9-week tear without busting buyin(Very atypical). Three days later busted another one and had only made 19% of itself prior to bust.

I guess it all depends on each persons objective.



Continued Success,

Considering symmetry (at least by the parameters depicted in this thread) as a kind of losing situation no matter what is the best start to look for bac patterns predictability, IMO.

On the other end, asymmetry moves around more likely values splitted into 1-step and 2-step winning spots.

If A-A is more controllable than A-S and S-A is more controllable than S-S our only 'enemy' are A-S-S patterns.
Taking a deeper step, S-S-A are more controllable than S-S-S-A and so on.

Providing a shoe to be really randomly dealt , isolated S are slight overhwhelming clustered S at any derived road considered, moreover clustered A will be slight superior than isolated A especially when S came out clustered.
It's interesting to notice that by utilizing a 0.75% probability to succeed, overall and itlr A impact tend to be lower than S impact, meaning that A is more likely than S by a kind of "quality" factor.
That means that waiting for a S or S-S sequence to appear is the best way to collect a long term valuable edge, obviously coming out by wagering towards an A event one time.

In turn this edge could be better defined by wagering that 1-step winning situations are more likely to prolong or to stop or simply to show up "out of blue".

Next time I'll present some examples of what I'm talking about.

as.