Recent posts

#1
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: The Power of Winning
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 05:24:28 PM
Okay, here it is.  After several hours of looking at my notes from the previous two good to great sessions, I was able to define what I was referring to in the above posting.

I was definitely overpowered by my winning. I believe because it came fast and hard, out of the norm, out of the so-called schedule by all means. In brief, the winning was disruptive.

Winning is always welcomed, don't get me wrong. However, I strive to control both my losing and winning wagering with merging both into my money management method.

My money management method, posted and written about enough on the forum, does control me in the upper 90% percentile of all of my play.

But my problem was, I went out of conscious and clear frame of mind.  I wagered far greater amounts, as well as not as much as I should have after the winning was coming at me, fast and hard. Yes, I far accomplished my session goal!  And while I was NOT going to color up and walk away, I followed the winning recklessly and like I said, I was out of schedule.  I wish to stress, I did not give it back, not by any means whatsoever. I had my buy in. I had my session goal and I was continuously winning at an out of schedule return rate.

I should have wagered what was winning in a different light, as well as larger amounts while merging into the temporary out of schedule, fast and hard winning, with my normal 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd MMM and being conscious of my 'everything held' (buy in and previous wins/goal), so that means 2/3rds held and a wagering continuation with the last 1/3rd of my wins for additional wins with conscious and clear frame of mind. 

The last part is what I should have done and I did not do. And that is what I am referring to, The Power of Winning can change you.
#2
Alrelax's Blog / The Art of Baccarat
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 03:20:33 PM
What is The Art of Baccarat?

The fact is, I understand it because I have the experience, the brick and mortar play with over four decades of solid play starting with those big beautiful 14 seat BAC tables, two sided with seven seats on each side, three dealers with two floor people, one at each end, the entire shoe, each and every shoe.  The shoe was held by each player in a counterclockwise rotation and each player dealt the cards until that player dealt out a winning Players hand, no matter what side the person was wagering on.  It truly was an 'art' because of the way it was played, the majority understanding the complexity of the game and the extreme respect for it that surpasses anything seen these days.

No scoreboards, no side bets, just simple and pure, respectful BAC. The game was played by the majority of its players that really did understand what was happening and how to approach it. Of course that developed into the mini and midi BAC tables with the scoreboards the players adore, watching and pointing to, believing they can transport the statistics that they read about on the Internet into real life with guaranteed triggers.

However, you have to understand the true Art of BAC. There is a distinct definition of not just what it is, but the how and the reasoning of why. Not, and I emphasize the "should" or the "statistics" that do not consistently and never will apply to the 1-2-3 or 4 shoes anyone sits down to play in a session.

The Art of BAC is definitely the ability, the execution, using profits to comfort oneself, avoiding grinding down the buy-ins that sit in front of the players because the players that understand the Art of BAC, are different than the highest of the highest majority of all players these days.

The Art of BAC. There is one, seriously there is. If you get it right most of the time, you got it. If not, sit down and think hard and long, change your ways. Once you do, you're on your way to understanding the Art of BAC.

You have to be a receiver of your actions and not a defensive wall the highest majority of the time. The game of BAC is not just about watching the presentation of hands produced +/- 80 times from a shoe. The Art of BAC is about you and your ability to understand it and merge your conscious with a skillful application of imagination and creativity that develops into intellectual responses entitled, 'wagering'. That my friend is the art of BAC.

#3
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: The Power of Winning
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 04:07:14 AM
BUMP! 

I was at the casino within the last week.  Both sessions were good to great!  However, my mind was not there even though I was winning and turned profits. 

Could I have done better?  Absolutely.  Why did I blocked myself from winning a lot more than I did?  Because I fell prey to 'The Power of Winning'.

Walking out to the parking lot with my hand on the obvious bulge of cash in my front pocket, I remembered this post I wrote. 

Will explain when I write it out and define it, later tonight or tomorrow.



#4
Civil & Criminal Topics / Minnesota woman embezzled $1.2...
Last post by alrelax - April 10, 2026, 09:37:49 PM
Can't make this stuff up.  Pull tabs, huh?  Yeah, gambling I guess.

Federal charges accuse a payroll manager of embezzling more than a million dollars from a Minnesota company "to fund her gambling and pull-tab addiction."

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/payroll-manager-embezzles-1m-for-pull-tab-addiction-charges-say/#
#5
Civil & Criminal Topics / Re: California and huge card r...
Last post by alrelax - April 10, 2026, 09:33:53 PM
Reference the card rooms new and changing dissolution.

CARDS CLOSE Americans can say goodbye to blackjack and other card games thanks to April 1 rule change in US state

https://www.the-sun.com/news/16147835/california-sales-tax-hike-card-room-games-april/
#6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 09, 2026, 02:23:56 AM
Notice that in this shoe succession the total  I/C results = -15 (before vig) but it's not rocket science to get an advantage at those sequences.

as.
#7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 09, 2026, 02:16:23 AM
At baccarat we've seen that the fear of missing something "good" is always inferior to the fear of getting rid of something "bad", so it's more important to shift losing situations than exploiting the entirety of profitable opportunities.

This problem, verified at an unimaginable number of real shoes dealt under different circumstances, has shown us that losing situations and short winning situations are both slight more detectable than long winning situations unless those W patterns reach relative values that the best course of action to take is riding them until they'll stop. Yet this last strategy sounds more as a gambling plan (so affected by huge variance) but anyway getting some merits.

Example #1 (1 and 2 vs 3/3+ streaks)

Arrange the cards whatever you like but 1/2 clustered patterns will show up at least two or more times per shoe, not to mention what happens at the infinite random walks we decide to consider.
More importantly is the fact that 1/2 isolated patterns long term distribution considered by back-to-back events will slight disregard the expected 3:1 ratio so making more probable 1/2 clustered patterns than isolated patterns showing up clustered for longer than two.

Nonetheless, we know that 1/2 sequences could last up to 22-25 or more patterns not crossing any 3/3+ streak.

But most of the times 1/2 patterns are coming out as clustered at least for 2 (under general probability values), 3 (exact general probability values) or longer (over general probability values).
Naturally the actual number of long 3/3+ streaks and/or the number of ties will affect the 1/2 clusters along with other actual card features.

Anyway, there's a virtual certainty that 1/2 clusters of any lenght will come out, especially after fictional losing situations.

Example #2 (doubles consecutiveness)

This is a more intricate situation as doubles are the most likely outcomes at baccarat.
I mean that consecutive doubles will make more probable the efficacy seen above of the 1/2 being clustered, yet a strong number of isolated doubles will come out along the way in the form of clusters (isolated double/isolated double).
Even here, isolated doubles followed by clustered doubles are taking a different probability line than what the general probability dictates.

Again and knowing that now we're taking care of just one of the possible three patterns of interest, it's the actual quality distribution to help us for taking the best course of action.

Just to give an example here some real shoes about the doubles I or C distribution (we discarded from the registration the first 20 hands dealt):

C-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-C-I-I-I-I-I

I-C-I

I-I-I-C-C-I

I-C-C-I-I

I-C-I-I-C

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-C-I-C

I-C-I-C

I-I-I-C

I-C-I

I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-I-I-I-I-C-I

C-I-I-I-C-I

I-I-I-C-C

I-I-C

I-I-I-C-C

I-C-I

C-C-I-I-I-I-I-I

I-C-I-I-C

C-I-I-I

I-I-I

I-I-I-I

I-I-I-C

I

C-I-I-C

C-C-I-I-I

I-I-C-C-C

I-I-C-C-I-I-C

C-I-I-C

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I-C-I

C-C-I-I-I

C-I-I-C-I-C-I-I

Even though C=-3 and I=+1, this brief sample should give the idea that the chaotic "unguessable" bac world is less undetectable than what most experts or people think of, naturally not taking outcomes as mere arithmetic sequences.

as. 
#8
Wagering & Intricacies / Reality Baccarat
Last post by alrelax - April 08, 2026, 09:18:24 PM
REALITY BACCARAT

PLEASE NOTE:  This will be a new thread of shorts, tidbits and similar baccarat reality.  Real life, non statistical and leaving the, 'should have' out.

Just to help me focus a bit at the table.  I consolidated down my betting and Pos Progressions on a score card.  These are for a $2,000/$2,500 max bet table.  It really does help me in numerous ways.

They are read from Left to Right.

There is a distinct definition of not just what you desire o wager on and how you manage your win or loss, subsequent to a wager.  We all have our unique and exclusive styles of doing such.  However, I personally look for stability in my play and positive progressions such as those on my sheet below, giving me a constant reminder of what I should be doing when I win wagers. 

EXAMPLE:  If I can do a $450-$900-$1,800 and profit net $3,150 on my short 1 + 2, I can then divide up the $3,150 for the ammunition, stress free, buy-in free, to attack something sizable within the shoe. 

It works for me as I constantly am looking at my sheet.  Easier than attempting to implement it all into my subconscious.
#9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 08, 2026, 08:39:08 PM
Obviously those long univocal situations putting casinos into a passive mood aren't coming out around the corner as the vast majority of patterns are difficult to be grasped; technically meaning that we'll have hard times to win more than two maybe three bets in a row at best, so winning situations diluted into a more likely losing ocean.

Capitalizing on those relatively rare univocal situations could be an option as well as setting up a strong defensive attitude oriented to "limit" the losing patterns impact.
And of course a mix of the two strategies that unfortunately players like to shift too frequently towards the first "easy" plan.

The mistake of "hoping" is always worse than the mistake of "estimating probabilities" because our bets must always fight vs the HE.

After all casinos will substantially lose when consecutive bets are placed on easy patterns or easy situations and the same is true for players keep wagering back to back difficult patterns and difficult situations not going to be resolved within short times.

While casinos can't prevent players to wager the univocal situations standing for long (so eliciting a consecutive positive wagering), players have the important option to discontinue the betting when difficult chaotic patterns show up and the latter situation is more probable to come out along the shoes dealt.

Not surprisingly casinos want us to bet every hand or almost every hand and not only for obvious math reasons but because they well know how whimsical (so uncontrollable) are distributed the bac results, especially when losing players try to get the money back by increasing their wagers.

There are many pattern examples showing that, see you later

as.
#10
Civil & Criminal Topics / Wynn Casino and Resorts Data B...
Last post by alrelax - April 08, 2026, 10:01:56 AM
Wynn Casinos and Resorts and their weak security systems falls prey to hackers.

https://www.securityweek.com/wynn-resorts-says-21000-employees-affected-by-shinyhunters-hack/