Recent posts

#1
Civil & Criminal Topics / Minnesota woman embezzled $1.2...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 09:37:49 PM
Can't make this stuff up.  Pull tabs, huh?  Yeah, gambling I guess.

Federal charges accuse a payroll manager of embezzling more than a million dollars from a Minnesota company "to fund her gambling and pull-tab addiction."

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/payroll-manager-embezzles-1m-for-pull-tab-addiction-charges-say/#
#2
Civil & Criminal Topics / Re: California and huge card r...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 09:33:53 PM
Reference the card rooms new and changing dissolution.

CARDS CLOSE Americans can say goodbye to blackjack and other card games thanks to April 1 rule change in US state

https://www.the-sun.com/news/16147835/california-sales-tax-hike-card-room-games-april/
#3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 09, 2026, 02:23:56 AM
Notice that in this shoe succession the total  I/C results = -15 (before vig) but it's not rocket science to get an advantage at those sequences.

as.
#4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 09, 2026, 02:16:23 AM
At baccarat we've seen that the fear of missing something "good" is always inferior to the fear of getting rid of something "bad", so it's more important to shift losing situations than exploiting the entirety of profitable opportunities.

This problem, verified at an unimaginable number of real shoes dealt under different circumstances, has shown us that losing situations and short winning situations are both slight more detectable than long winning situations unless those W patterns reach relative values that the best course of action to take is riding them until they'll stop. Yet this last strategy sounds more as a gambling plan (so affected by huge variance) but anyway getting some merits.

Example #1 (1 and 2 vs 3/3+ streaks)

Arrange the cards whatever you like but 1/2 clustered patterns will show up at least two or more times per shoe, not to mention what happens at the infinite random walks we decide to consider.
More importantly is the fact that 1/2 isolated patterns long term distribution considered by back-to-back events will slight disregard the expected 3:1 ratio so making more probable 1/2 clustered patterns than isolated patterns showing up clustered for longer than two.

Nonetheless, we know that 1/2 sequences could last up to 22-25 or more patterns not crossing any 3/3+ streak.

But most of the times 1/2 patterns are coming out as clustered at least for 2 (under general probability values), 3 (exact general probability values) or longer (over general probability values).
Naturally the actual number of long 3/3+ streaks and/or the number of ties will affect the 1/2 clusters along with other actual card features.

Anyway, there's a virtual certainty that 1/2 clusters of any lenght will come out, especially after fictional losing situations.

Example #2 (doubles consecutiveness)

This is a more intricate situation as doubles are the most likely outcomes at baccarat.
I mean that consecutive doubles will make more probable the efficacy seen above of the 1/2 being clustered, yet a strong number of isolated doubles will come out along the way in the form of clusters (isolated double/isolated double).
Even here, isolated doubles followed by clustered doubles are taking a different probability line than what the general probability dictates.

Again and knowing that now we're taking care of just one of the possible three patterns of interest, it's the actual quality distribution to help us for taking the best course of action.

Just to give an example here some real shoes about the doubles I or C distribution (we discarded from the registration the first 20 hands dealt):

C-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-C-I-I-I-I-I

I-C-I

I-I-I-C-C-I

I-C-C-I-I

I-C-I-I-C

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-C-I-C

I-C-I-C

I-I-I-C

I-C-I

I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I

C-I-I-I-I-C-I

C-I-I-I-C-I

I-I-I-C-C

I-I-C

I-I-I-C-C

I-C-I

C-C-I-I-I-I-I-I

I-C-I-I-C

C-I-I-I

I-I-I

I-I-I-I

I-I-I-C

I

C-I-I-C

C-C-I-I-I

I-I-C-C-C

I-I-C-C-I-I-C

C-I-I-C

I-I-I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I

I-I-I-I-I-C-I

C-C-I-I-I

C-I-I-C-I-C-I-I

Even though C=-3 and I=+1, this brief sample should give the idea that the chaotic "unguessable" bac world is less undetectable than what most experts or people think of, naturally not taking outcomes as mere arithmetic sequences.

as. 
#5
Wagering & Intricacies / Reality Baccarat
Last post by alrelax - April 08, 2026, 09:18:24 PM
REALITY BACCARAT

PLEASE NOTE:  This will be a new thread of shorts, tidbits and similar baccarat reality.  Real life, non statistical and leaving the, 'should have' out.

Just to help me focus a bit at the table.  I consolidated down my betting and Pos Progressions on a score card.  These are for a $2,000/$2,500 max bet table.  It really does help me in numerous ways.

They are read from Left to Right.

There is a distinct definition of not just what you desire o wager on and how you manage your win or loss, subsequent to a wager.  We all have our unique and exclusive styles of doing such.  However, I personally look for stability in my play and positive progressions such as those on my sheet below, giving me a constant reminder of what I should be doing when I win wagers. 

EXAMPLE:  If I can do a $450-$900-$1,800 and profit net $3,150 on my short 1 + 2, I can then divide up the $3,150 for the ammunition, stress free, buy-in free, to attack something sizable within the shoe. 

It works for me as I constantly am looking at my sheet.  Easier than attempting to implement it all into my subconscious.
#6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 08, 2026, 08:39:08 PM
Obviously those long univocal situations putting casinos into a passive mood aren't coming out around the corner as the vast majority of patterns are difficult to be grasped; technically meaning that we'll have hard times to win more than two maybe three bets in a row at best, so winning situations diluted into a more likely losing ocean.

Capitalizing on those relatively rare univocal situations could be an option as well as setting up a strong defensive attitude oriented to "limit" the losing patterns impact.
And of course a mix of the two strategies that unfortunately players like to shift too frequently towards the first "easy" plan.

The mistake of "hoping" is always worse than the mistake of "estimating probabilities" because our bets must always fight vs the HE.

After all casinos will substantially lose when consecutive bets are placed on easy patterns or easy situations and the same is true for players keep wagering back to back difficult patterns and difficult situations not going to be resolved within short times.

While casinos can't prevent players to wager the univocal situations standing for long (so eliciting a consecutive positive wagering), players have the important option to discontinue the betting when difficult chaotic patterns show up and the latter situation is more probable to come out along the shoes dealt.

Not surprisingly casinos want us to bet every hand or almost every hand and not only for obvious math reasons but because they well know how whimsical (so uncontrollable) are distributed the bac results, especially when losing players try to get the money back by increasing their wagers.

There are many pattern examples showing that, see you later

as.
#7
Civil & Criminal Topics / Wynn Casino and Resorts Data B...
Last post by alrelax - April 08, 2026, 10:01:56 AM
Wynn Casinos and Resorts and their weak security systems falls prey to hackers.

https://www.securityweek.com/wynn-resorts-says-21000-employees-affected-by-shinyhunters-hack/
#8
Off-topic / Re: Photo Ops
Last post by alrelax - April 07, 2026, 10:32:56 PM
Sky was on fire this morning, not one doubt about it!
#9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - April 07, 2026, 08:46:02 PM
Considering things from the other side (casino) could probably help to determinate what would be the best course of action.

When casinos will (temporary) lose a lot of money?
When strong univocal deviations will happen within short times (basically long streaks or strong B/P predominances) or when some high payout side bets are coming out frequently.
Actually casinos are relatively worried about BP bets and not about the side bets as they know that it'll take a lot of more time to take back the money lost at BP bets than at side bets.

Obviously I'm talking about HS players action as casinos fear that winning players won't come back to lose at their premises.

The casinos advantages are hard to be challenged yet it's not so infrequent to read casinos experiencing one or even a couple of losing months per year.
That's a big difference with other gambling games where no losing months were accounted despite of getting a theorical lower HE (black jack).

More later

as.
#10
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
Last post by alrelax - April 07, 2026, 03:05:44 PM
My gaming partners and myself adopted these:

* Black is Black.

* Nothing from Nothing Leaves Nothing.

* You Can't Change What is Going to Happen.