Hmmm, Bac2Bac, you learnt a very crucial PART OF MY STRATEGY. WE NEED TO CONTROL VARIANCE BUT VARIANCE CAN STILL HURT.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 18, 2026, 03:22:41 AMSeveral years later, this MdG strategy was deeply investigated by testing real roulette outcomes and simulated pc spins but with no avail at both cases.

Correction surely will act but always in proportional terms (percentages) related to the number of hands dealt so needing a lot of time to show up, so making worthless any bet selection.


as.

Can you direct me to any information on these investigations, beside the books written on Marigny adaptations?

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You described very well the "statistical limit" concept but as long as the production is independent and therefore symmetrically shaped, no strategy will be able to shift a 50/50 probability in our favor no matter how deep a deviation will happen before starting to bet.

This topic was studied nearly one century ago by Marigny de Grilleau whose strategy was to wait for a 3 sigma before betting with the aim of winning just one (large) unit by flat betting.
Several years later, this MdG strategy was deeply investigated by testing real roulette outcomes and simulated pc spins but with no avail at both cases.

Correction surely will act but always in proportional terms (percentages) related to the number of hands dealt so needing a lot of time to show up, so making worthless any bet selection.

Anyway the main problem is not related to the A/B deviations but by the 0 impact that cannot be overcome by any bet selection or progressive schemes no matter how sophisticated are conceived.

At baccarat things are way easier as any deviation won't stand for long (strong correction), at least by considering the same shape of apparition of any pattern at back to back finite and dependent shoes.  If not, all bac player aiming for constant deviations of some kind will clean up every casino in the world and we know that's not the case.

To support our hypothesis let's take the back to back bac doubles distribution.  We want to bet that any double won't be followed by another double just one time (so letting go the multiple double clusters greater than two).

The double/double vs double/anything else ratio is 1:3, we'll wait for a situation where this ratio is moderately/heavily shifted towards the left (the strongest, the better), then starting to bet in order to get an isolated double apparition or isolated double sequence (isolated double correction).

That's one of the most "balanced" propositions we've found out in our long term trials.

as.

Maybe you are opening a new world about this game, no jokes.

Yes, getting a clear and focused mind is very important in every field, but successful gamblers made their fortune by exploting an advantage most people do not have.

Now the question specifically related to baccarat is:

Could a player find the situations where B bets will get at least a 51.3% probability to win and/or where P bets will get at least a 50.1% probability to win?
That's the basic undisputable form of advantage that must be measured after collecting several session results.

If no valuable triggers exist (I disagree on that, but that's not the point here) that means that some players show the ability to guess more right than wrong by a value capable to erase and invert the HE.

I'm aware some studies made at mere coin flip propositions guessing have shown that some people got a winning percentage above than 50% and those studies were driven by serious professors evaluating significant statistical data.
We know that when the HE=0 things might naturally take incredible long positive (or negative) lines, so what when we have to guess at a -1.06%/-1.24% negative edge proposition?
Now is a clear focused and prepared mind capable to spot the events where the HE will go down the drain?

I don't have the answer but Alrelax words seem to give us a positive reply, we ought not to forget that he played for real an astounding amount of shoes.
For that matter a couple of high end casinos floormen gave me a similar response when asked if they'd think some players have "more feeling" for the game than the rest.

So could a clear, focused, prepared and experienced mind be able to approximate at best when some spots are better than others?

as.

And here is just one example I'm not gonna go too much into detail because of the responses are next to nothing from all the readers.

So, I'm gonna save most of my pictures but I just want to bring out a point and here is a perfect example of almost all naturals cut. What a friggin trigger to make a quick 10K!  Simple, period.

Lots more tricks of the trade but with the readership not engaging, I'm going to hold back many more pictures I got from the last few weeks of play.  And I do have lots more pictures of actual score boards and table tops with the wagers, but the effort and the time to edit and post I feel is just a waste at this point.

DON'T FOLLOW THE NORM.....BE DIFFERENT!

Tools for the mind are truly unlimited. Research-learn-absorb-discuss-practice.

No matter what you think, you have to think outside of the 'NORM'.

It is not what a computer can do.
It is not what a product or system can do.
It is not what stats or their results prove or show can or cannot be done.

Because, you are going to be wagering on a limited number of hands per session. 

It is solely dependent upon you to go around the walls that project themselves because of the history that allow them to stand without challenge and strange belief by assuming those are correct and can be easily applied. They cannot, never in any way, shape or form, no matter the twists you believe will make them work with uniformity and consistency.

You cannot with the minimal amount of effort succeed by applying a simple trigger when you see the 'point' coming. It will not work. It never has and never will. Why? Because your effort is without true knowledge and experience. And you need both to make it past the countless hurdles that will present themselves. Once you realize that, you've learned more than the average player playing for years and years.

50% means nothing, zero, zip!  Instant time, no advantage. Carryover to wait, also means nothing. Math stats and obvious happening patterns/trends means nothing past the current hand or two or several that just happened. Don't fall in the same rut most all players do, losing 5-7-9 or more hands to win just a few.

With the game you can certainly get a complete shoe of the obvious. Meaning, 1s, 2s and 3s, combinations of chops and every repeating three or four, cuts to the opposite side. But when you see it and don't wager for it, wait a bit, it's too late. Does not continue. Hence sections/turning points.

"The Perfect Expected Results". What so many fail to realize or do not want to realize is, what is actually happening.  Again, WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. Which is, A Section Vs. Redundancy that results in fallacy.  A downfall that will eat your bank roll with fierce hunger.

The truth is success does not come by accident. It comes from consistent hard work in pursuit of a dream. It comes from passion that drives you and it will also come from consistently and diligently employing some key habits that position you for greatness.  This success comes from an innate desire to win. Gambling is by far the hardest and most toughest profession out there!  Do you know why? Because it involves you controlling your emotions. And it involves controlling your thoughts when you're in the zone and you're down financially. Do you have the patience and skill to keep it together mentally when you're losing so much on the table? Can you walk away and come back the next day, just as strong and win twice the amount? See, when you lose your mind, you lose your money! Big-time. Surely there must be a winning attitude and habitat that winners religiously apply right?  Is there?  I've considered this for a long long time. I've studied the great minds of the best gamblers out there, through books and other writings, because I was sick of losing my hard earned money! I was sick of cursing my luck and blaming others for my losses. The difference between you and Patrick Veitch or anyone else that has made millions from gambling is their state of mind. They think and do things differently, they have that winning attitude! Richness comes from the mind, not from the pockets!

Your success will be an extension of real knowledge and experience into the game of baccarat or whatever else you are playing to win.

My closing is this. Forge ahead and paint in vivid colors, not in black-and-white or in numbers.

Asym, as I highlighted in my summation, "how psychologically our brain functions play a much larger part of wagering and interpreting the baccarat shoe and its presentments than most can ever imagine."

This IMO is the underlying reason the highest majority of bac players lose or give back their winnings in pursuit of greater immediate winnings. 

One must (MUST) understand with a deep, clear, conscious thought of their ingrained psychological habits I outlined above and then be able to combat those with perfect clearity at the the table. NOT an easy thing to do,  but hey-winning money is the same as hard work.  NOT EASY.  If it all was, the games would not be there, the casinos would not be there, and so on. 

People are lazy.  People want to read a few forums, watch a few imbecile crazy fallacy YouTuber's, grab a few hundred dollars, believe there are guaranteed triggers and hit the casino. They have some off-the-wall fallacy about turning that into thousands and repeatedly doing the same, session after session after session. 

As I have admitted, I believe you have also () and others have on this forum, "Not a surprise knowing that 100% of keen bac players have lost their a$$es at the tables."  100% HONEST AND SPOT-ON, high five my friend. 

As well, by my writings I have gained numerous advantages, learned countless things I was doing wrong and improved my psychological aspects of play.  One of those that I accomplished was a conscious ability to employ positive progression while interfacing each hand along with acknowledging those 3 habits and my Money Management Method. 

Good thread.

Al wrote: The bottom line is, while you cannot totally control what is happening, or about to happen in front of you, you must control yourself by the way you respond to what is happening or just happened.

That's a very good rule of thumb and our general answer, when in doubt, is to bet very few hands.
Obviously there are many specific guidelines to follow as well that more or less are framed in the "hoping for the best but expecting the worst" picture.
This seems to collide with the #2 point (The habit of your inner resistance) but it doesn't if one has verified a long term edge that must be adapted to the actual outcomes.
Laboratory tests are made by a way greater speed than live shoe results and this leads us to do a lot of mistakes at real tables, especially when we're losing.

Then:
1). The Habit of Expecting Things to be a Certain Way

As you sayed, this point is very subjective.
We'd guess that at least 95% of bac players hope for limitless positive deviations, 4.99% "wrongly" confide about 1-step long term math/statistical data (B>P, B/P average ratio, etc) but only the remaining 0.001% (an optimistic percentage, I know) are really able to understand and more importantly exploit the intricacies of the game.
"Expected things" need a moderate/huge hands volume to be exploited, providing one had carefully tested and measured why his/her edge comes from.

2-The Habit of Your Inner Resistance

Not a surprise knowing that 100% of keen bac players have lost their a$$es at the tables.
The game is conceived to make the players to lose no matter how smart or st.u.p.id or aggressive or cautious they are.
If a coin flip proposition (No HE) cannot guarantee a player to be ahead after X hands, let's imagine what happens after several trials of betting when the ROI is constantly 0.9894:1 or 0.9876:1.
In a word, this factor is important to be "ignored" after having assessed to play with a verified long term edge, even though we all know that most "no edge" players are particularly prone to raise their bets while losing and being particulary prudent while winning (an asymmetrical detrimental attitude).

3). The Habit of Focusing Only on What Is/Was Wrong

This is a very important factor to be constantly aware of.
When things are not going to our favor, we should evaluate what are the probabilities that future patterns will fit (or not) our plan and now our brain must be particularly focused about NOT losing more hands than promptly recovering the actual losing status.
It's here that most money is lost by the intervention of what we call as "compounding error" even if the first hands were lost by natural variance.

as.

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