The basic foundation why we should play baccarat with an edge relies upon the probability that along the course of each shoe some events are more likely than expected, negative and positive variance considered.

Sayed that, we've made interesting studies about different bac productions, anyway knowing that in some instances things could change as casinos (or shuffling machine manufacturers) are not babies in the wood.
Neither we are.

Basically we've concluded that nowadays many shoes dealt lack of the "true random" feature as we compared them with a more reliable randomness source and you know what I'm talking about.
The fact that shoes are not properly random shuffled doesn't necessarily mean that "patterns" are getting more or less detectable forms, just that the cards are not randomly shuffled.

That's why we started to consider shoes by the asym/sym feature getting more constant values at real random shoes but strong volatile situations at supposedly unrandom productions.

So the "average shoe" concept I kept stressing in this thread works only at true random shuffled shoes.
Then what to do when we'd think the shoes we're playing at are unrandomly shuffled?

Well, our basic answer (besides of the important fact that we can't be so wrong while following, at least partially, what the shoe is producing) is to assess the AS/S factor of the patterns that can be devised by infinite ways (sub random walks applied to the original BP sequence).

Rhythm and symmetry are the key words.

For example, ABABAB..sequence is rhythmic and asymmetrical up to the step 3 whereas a succession as AABAABAAB..is rhythmic and asymmetrical.

If (key) cards are asymmetrically distributed and the rules favor an asymmetrical distribution of the results, we could dare to make the conclusion that patterns will be more asymmetrically distributed than symmetrically shaped.

On the other end, rhythmic symmetrical patterns (ABAABB.. or AAABBBAABBA..) are less likely to happen or, at least, getting low sd values to happen.
Once a same pattern had shown up symmetrically (so two times in a row) we let it go until it shifts into a different pattern. Since we have learnt that patterns should be only classified into 1s, 2s and 3/3+s, we know we have to register in the AS/S form the three most common pattern situations.

As a general guideline, isolated S are more likely to come out in a row and when they are not most of the times A clusters will show up.
When a S cluster (more likely in the S-S double form) shows up, our data suggest that the future probability of getting another S cluster vs an isolated S is slight endorsed, that is getting a higher than 1:3 probability to appear (remember we utilize a 0.75%, two-step probability to win).
More generally speaking, an abnormal number of S events happening at one shoe will teach us that asymmetry is somewhat "silenced", a sign that we shouldn't bet (or bet again) at that shoe.

Talking about the 0.75% probability to win, one could argue that there are no differences between a single/double vs 3/3+s streaks plan or the AS/S plan and that's the beauty of picking up the subtleties of this game.
Technically the first plan relies upon the unlikelihood to get many shoe portions of side predominance of 6:1 or 6:2 (or more), the AS/S plan will make a kind of conditional probability to be working as any shoe dealt presenting strong S pattern predominance more often than not will deny a proper A balancement whatever considered.

Here some shoes considered by the AS/S feature and according to the rules described in my pages. Since some casinos will cut off a lot of cards from the play the sequences will be considered by "cores".

1) A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-(-1)

That's an 'easy' shoe, all A clusters and all isolated S.

2) S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-S

Another good shoe except for the isolated A happening at 11th spot of the succession.

3) A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-S

Notice the S clusters repeating at the end of the shoe.

4) A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A

A perfect shoe

5) S-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-S-A

The first S cluster makes less appealing the next S situation. In this scenario an isolated S event happened but I wouldn't suggest to bet for A after the second S came out.
Just in case, all A came out in clusters.

6) A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A

Despite of its univocal shape, this sequence will get us just three wins before vig.

7) A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-S

According to the staregic rules depicted above, here it's impossible to lose.

A-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-S-S

A strong S deviated shoe that shows up the importance of not chasing A after a S clustered sequence.

9) S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-S-A-S-A-A

A slight negative shoe

10) A-S-S-A-S-S-A-A-A-S-A

A relative unlikely shoe where up to 8 consecutive bets were lost in the initial portion of the shoe unless the first S cluster had refrained us to play for the next S to be isolated.

In total we got +2 units before vig despite of having an unfavourable AS/S 109/115 pattern ratio.

See you in a couple fo days

as.

Asym up above:

"...without a verified edge the player's bankroll will invariably decline "[/color
    The absolute most important thing a player can do is to confirm(or refute) if one has an advantage. Most importantly use that advantage(or disadvantage) for designing ones money mgmt. Bankroll, Buyin, and Betsize (along with progression, regression, and or flat) should be a function of this figure.

"...Paradoxically doing so they are lowering the math disadvantage by implementing the 'Bold strategy' that teaches us that at any EV- game the best move to adopt is betting large amounts in just one hand or very few hands..."

    IMO if one doesn't have a verified advantage then pressing(Pos pro) is the absolute worse thing a player can do as one is "turbocharging" the casinos' H.E. against ones self.
    My preference is to do a pospro so majority of Ls are at or near the Base Unit(BU).


Op at the top:
"..BANKROLL.  Your total funds set aside for gambling risk.

BUY-IN.  Your funds at risk you bring to the casino for each session. .."

*IMO one should start by clearing writing out ones specific objective/then work backward in how to hit said target win.

I feel one should have ratios that when one completes a win it is large enough to move the needle(meaning increase the overall bank roll).

What I often see (perceive as I don't ask players what is your objective): They have unrealistic expectation of bet size to buyin(e.g., buyin with 1k with a goal of making 5k,...etc). My perception is that most players do not really have a bankroll to support their buyin(Thus they seem to be in panic mode when they are approaching a bust). I bust a  buyin every 10-14 days of playing and kinda expect it based on the Variance I have chosen.

*Though I recently went on a 9-week tear without busting buyin(Very atypical). Three days later busted another one and had only made 19% of itself prior to bust.

I guess it all depends on each persons objective.



Continued Success,

Considering symmetry (at least by the parameters depicted in this thread) as a kind of losing situation no matter what is the best start to look for bac patterns predictability, IMO.

On the other end, asymmetry moves around more likely values splitted into 1-step and 2-step winning spots.

If A-A is more controllable than A-S and S-A is more controllable than S-S our only 'enemy' are A-S-S patterns.
Taking a deeper step, S-S-A are more controllable than S-S-S-A and so on.

Providing a shoe to be really randomly dealt , isolated S are slight overhwhelming clustered S at any derived road considered, moreover clustered A will be slight superior than isolated A especially when S came out clustered.
It's interesting to notice that by utilizing a 0.75% probability to succeed, overall and itlr A impact tend to be lower than S impact, meaning that A is more likely than S by a kind of "quality" factor.
That means that waiting for a S or S-S sequence to appear is the best way to collect a long term valuable edge, obviously coming out by wagering towards an A event one time.

In turn this edge could be better defined by wagering that 1-step winning situations are more likely to prolong or to stop or simply to show up "out of blue".

Next time I'll present some examples of what I'm talking about.

as.

For clarification.  I did not intend to influence people to use what I wrote with wildly or guessing type of consistent betting, etc.

I intended it to be used within a solid M.M.M., and of course, along with some type of wagering as we have discussed whereupon the gambler has advantages. 

Good suggestions for sure (and I really mean it) but without a verified edge the player's bankroll will invariably decline no matter how sophisticated is our MM.

Nonetheless it's very likely 99,9% of the bac players aren't going to follow those guidelines as they will try to replenish the buy-in lost in the previous sessions, often by wildly pressing their bets.
Paradoxically doing so they are lowering the math disadvantage by implementing the 'Bold strategy' that teaches us that at any EV- game the best move to adopt is betting large amounts in just one hand or very few hands.

I mean that if we play with an edge the more we play the more we'll win (so the session concept is worthless), but in absence of an edge MM procedures just dilute the eventual loss of the entire bankroll.

Naturally if every player would follow your guidelines casinos will win a lot less money than they actually do.

as.

KFB wrote:

  I find it helpful to view every shoe(& thus every pattern) from a perspective: What is the expected average and how far has this current shoe deviated(- or +). I view a shoe as a combination of patterns that are always trying to approach their respective expectations(& limits).


I agree.

Example.
Say we could bet when a natural will show up, a kind of side bet where any natural is payed less than its math probability to appear (to guarantee the house an edge, of course).
Well, this bet would be so beatable that actually no casino is offering it. And I'm not talking about card counting 8s and 9s, just assessing the average rhythm of presentation with all related statistical features (gaps, card rank combinations forming naturals, symmetry/asymmetry, etc).

It's obvious that the fact that we don't need to guess the exact side where the natural will fall helps a lot.
Nonetheless what really help is that 8s/9s and natural combinations as 7-2, 6-2, 6-3, 5-4 and 4-4 cannot disappear for long and are in relationship of how many NON naturals had happened in the past portions of the shoe.
Then more shoes are played and registered and various probabilities tend to approach more and more the expected ranges of apparition. 

We could make the same considerations about the asymmetrical hands favoring the Banker side, now being a more complicated issue to be devised as their probability drops from 34.2% (naturals) to 8.6% (asym hands).

Going further, and that's what really interests us, we might take care of B/P patterns and now we're moving the problem into more volatile situations that still must obey to math/statistical laws.
For example we take B/P doubles, the easiest pattern formed by two consecutive hands that 91.6% of the times are the product of 50/50 exact situations.

Now differently than the above situations (naturals and asym hands), we should focus our attention about the consecutiveness of such doubles, therefore we must wait for a first B or P double appearance.
Curiously doubles are the prototype of symmetry.

More later

as.

A topic discussed at length within my circle of gaming friends as well as online venues, has been Bankrolls and Buy-ins.

Through my experience and absolute conclusion, the proper Buy-in would be 10% but no greater under any condition than 15% of the persons Bankroll.

BANKROLL.  Your total funds set aside for gambling risk.

BUY-IN.  Your funds at risk you bring to the casino for each session. 

EXAMPLE BANKROLL.  $10,000.00.  Buy-in per session would be $1,000.00 to $1,500.00, depending upon your comfort and confidence levels.  Bankrolls are also non-accessible from the casino.  Only the Buy-in is taken to the casino on the gambler' person.

REASONING. Dividing up your Bankroll funds gives you multiple chances to win. Realizing dedication and being goal driven with very clear, decisive and definitive numbers. Playing the session in relationship to those three things.  Not playing at any point with the frustration and desperation if you lose, you are out of funds for your gaming pursuits (unless of course you are down to your last session because you somehow wiped out a proper Bankroll with reasonable session Buy-in percentages).

PROTOCOL.  PLAYER ADVANTAGE.  Buy-ins must be religiously and repetitively used to accumulate win money for the current session's play/risk funds. Once the Buy-in is exceeded, the gambler must lock back up his Buy-in.  The win money will determine the length of his session. Sessions can continue as long as he risks only 1/3rd to 2/3rds of his win money. If he exhausted his Buy-in without winning any funds, the session must end.  Period!

POST SESSION.  Gambler must return his Buy-in to his Bankroll to replenish previous losses, if any. Win money must also be returned to his Bankroll to replenish previous lost money, if any.  OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE:  If the gambler is 100% whole with his Bankroll, then he must use the win money outside of gambling to keep a clear and concise frame of mind, so he will not fall into the trap of always believing he will be able to win more and more. This will also put him at an advantage for realizing tangible purchases or uses that his win money created for him.  I.E.:  Pay bills, buy household items, pay down loans, purchase reloadable cards for daily/weekly expenses, etc., etc.

BANKROLL SIZE:  A controversial subject, but in my lengthy experience as well as countless gambling friends and partners experiences, it is of the upmost gamblers advantage to keep the same Bankroll size for a lengthy period of time.  And, not to always have the desire only to win for the purpose of building his Bankroll larger and larger. Doing so brings false hopes, harder session goals, and all types of fallacies which will ultimately cause greater and eventual losses in almost every single case. Bankrolls should be set by the gamblers comfort level, confidence level, and financial ability to be able to risk his entire Bankroll.

'Las Vegas' was a NBC Television series lasting 5 Years.

From WIKI:  "Las Vegas is an American comedy-drama television series created by Gary Scott Thompson. It was broadcast by NBC from September 22, 2003, to February 15, 2008, airing for five seasons. It focuses on a team of people working at the Montecito, a fictional hotel and casino on the Las Vegas Strip. The employees deal with various issues that arise within the working environment, ranging from casino security to restaurant management and valet parking. Las Vegas starred James Caan, Josh Duhamel, Nikki Cox, James Lesure, Vanessa Marcil, Molly Sims, Marsha Thomason, and eventually Tom Selleck. The series originally centered on Ed Deline (Caan), a strict ex-CIA officer who serves as the president of operations for the Montecito. Former Marine Counterintelligence/HUMINT (CI/HUMINT) officer, Danny McCoy (Duhamel), who is Ed's protégé, later becomes the Montecito's new president.

The pilot episode began filming in March 2003, and was produced for $5 million, making it the most expensive pilot in NBC history. Production for a full season began later that year. Much of the series filming occurred at Culver Studios in California, where a set was constructed to represent the Montecito. Some filming also occasionally took place in Las Vegas. The Mandalay Bay and Green Valley Ranch, two hotel-casinos in the Las Vegas Valley, were sometimes used to portray the Montecito."

Years ago I was at Mandalay Bay with one of my non Mandalay Bay Casino hosts and one thing led to another after meeting a few of the TV show stars, I was graciously given the ID cards shown below the stars wear in the show. 

Thought I would share with you guys.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year indeed! 🎄✨

This website holds tremendous potential, and it will be wonderful to see it flourish under Glen's vision, enhancing the experience for all fellow users.

I'm truly grateful to be part of such a close‑knit, welcoming community. We deeply appreciate everyone involved, as each of us contributes our unique part to the orchestration that makes this forum thrive.

May the coming year bring renewed energy, joyful connections, and plenty of success at the game tables for us all 🌟🙌.

With gratitude and best wishes,
Vic & Family 🤗