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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 11:00:45 pm »
Let's compare baccarat with two casino games that have demonstrated to get players an edge.

First game is black jack.
How the hell bj was considered a beatable game?
By running millions of pc shoes to test whether high card and aces concentration (theory) really goes to player's advantage by a hi/lo card counting.
The theory was verified by practice. Bj is a math beatable game by card counting (providing a valuable penetration, etc).

Second game is craps.
Some shooters after having practiced for long at home think to be "dice controllers", meaning that they can throw the dice unrandomly thus producing profitable situations. For example, lowering the "sevens" rate or enhancing the 6 appearance on either cubes. That is to transform a random model into a wanted unrandom model.
To test the possible "unrandom" profitability such players would run thousands of throws, that means to study the limiting values of relative frequency that must deviate from common math  expectancy applied to random outcomes.
If after a given amount of trials (of course the greater the better) the "sevens" percentage was lower than expected and/or the "6" appearance was greater than expected, those players might think to get an edge at different degrees (this not necessarily capable to invert the house edge in their favor) and now we talk about "statistical significance" (again restricted within certain levels).
Now theory can't be 100% ascertained by practice for two reasons: first, there's always a tiny probability to have registered unrandom results by coincidence; secondly, the dice throws sample is way more restricted than bj numbers.

Nonetheless, those dice controllers can't give a lesser damn about millions of throws proving or not their confidence to beat craps. They just collect the money won or accept the losses, assigning the possible temporary failure to a umproper technique due to several disparate causes.

Imo baccarat stays in the middle of those two extremes.

From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.
Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.

From the other part, we must challenge the "baccarat model" to always provide perfect randomly situations regardless of when we decide to bet, a thing scientifically proven to be wrong at least in the live shoes dealt sample that any human can collect.
Now it's the dealer or the SM to really make the desired unrandom world we want to get.

In fact it's virtually impossible that at an 8-deck shoe a human or a physical shuffle machine will be able to arrange key cards proportionally for the entire lenght of the shoe, our datasets strongly state otherwise.

Again the probability after events tool will get us the decisive factor to beat baccarat.
Without any doubt.

Tomorrow we'll see why.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 08:45:34 pm »
Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and  most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.

True, yet the derived road inventors had made the first primordial attempt to use the important probability after events tool, one of the two statistical parameters that could get us a real edge.

Of course most players make a bad use of those roads, trying to win an endless number of hands around any corner by hoping that "trends" must remain univocal for long.
In a word, they just gamble.

I agree with you that just one type of registration will make things simpler for many experienced players, especially for those capable to promptly recognize that some shoes cannot be played at all.
Now baccarat becomes more an art than a science, but imo we must find ways to scientifically prove the game is beatable by every person in the world.

as.
3
Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« Last post by alrelax on January 21, 2021, 03:18:04 pm »
The Baccarat book by Tommy Renzoni was a waste of money. This book was more of a story book than a baccarat book. This book talks more about how the game was introduced to Las Vegas. Does anyone really care about that?
There is no mention of bet selection which in my opinion is the most important topic next to money management. It just has a bunch of stories not much else.

As i wrote, "I highly recommend this great short work of reality baccarat for refreshing quips".
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Baccarat Forum / Re: The 2 Best Books on and for Baccarat Gambling
« Last post by CT70 on January 20, 2021, 04:43:25 am »
The Baccarat book by Tommy Renzoni was a waste of money. This book was more of a story book than a baccarat book. This book talks more about how the game was introduced to Las Vegas. Does anyone really care about that?
There is no mention of bet selection which in my opinion is the most important topic next to money management. It just has a bunch of stories not much else. 
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by alrelax on January 19, 2021, 12:12:01 pm »
Key hands are very deceiving and until fully understood by the person playing and how he interprets what will help him or what might hurt him, it will continue to be a very deceiving advantage that is probably one of the strongest advantages the player can obtain to favor himself.  However, each person must figure out how to interpret what can and cannot be interpreted in comparison to the instant presentments. 

Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and  most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 19, 2021, 11:31:26 am »
Btw, I highly suggest you to read this book:

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke


as.

7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 17, 2021, 11:56:07 pm »
Clustering effect

Baccarat is a game of clusters of different lenght and thickness.
And of course at baccarat there are no real symmetrical situations: for example, a 9 falling on the first two Player cards doesn't get the same power than a 9 falling on the two first Banker cards.
The probability to get that 9 falling on either side is equal but the effects are not symmetrical.

This concept could be applied to many other key card ranks, 8s and 7s of course but even 5s and 4s follow the same principle.

Any shoe dealt is formed by different "states" that eventually equal the rank number but the situations forming outcomes and player's ROI start asymmetrically, stay asymmetrically and end up asymmetrically.
The main reason conditioning the outcomes itlr regards the key card distribution getting different powers depending upon the side cards will fall at.
Most of the times key cards determine those outcomes. Not every time but most of the time.
When the outcomes seem to be too whimsically produced (see next post), it means that the shoe is not playable (that is unprofitable). We name that as "a very low clustered shoe".

Baccarat outcomes are not B or P results. Yes, we need a B or P to show up in order to register our random walk lines as there are no other betting options.
In reality baccarat is a game of states and not an endless B/P sequence.

We've seen that there are tools to derive unrandom successions from a primitive random sequence, our task should be focused to assess when one or more unrandom successions will take just one step forward toward the clustering world.
To maximize the reward risk ratio, per each shoe played looking for just one step is more than enough to battle versus a sure EV- math game.

By far and without any doubt, our EV will be greater and affected by the most ridiculously low variance when we'll try to find out just one profitable state per every playable shoe.
This means to discard a lot of unplayable situations and naturally to possibly witness "all winning" shoes without betting a dime.
It's not a coincidence that those rare long term winning players after winning or losing their "key hands" simply quit the table.

Deciding to be ahead of more than one step per playable shoe is a sure risky move to put in jeopardy the actual edge we get over the casinos.
On average clustered states are slight more likely than expected and that is mainly due to an imperfect shuffling.

Consider baccarat in the same way as black jack works for card counters even though by totally different reasons.
At bj profitable card counting situations cannot last for long. The same happens at baccarat.
We want to play by concentrating at most our edge, challenging the bac system to show its flaws within very few spots.


as.
8
Other Casinos / Over $13 Million "Missing" From South Korean Casino
« Last post by alrelax on January 17, 2021, 04:40:06 pm »
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2021, 11:20:37 pm »
As sayed several times here, we want to play baccarat with you Al, it's very very likely our hyper selected betting plan will correspond to your methodology taken at different degrees.

Few bac players reached the experience level to ascertain what is worth to bet and what it isn't, that's why we need a strong measurement of our possible edge to verify this game is really beatable. Or not.

There are general and specific means to lower, nullify or invert the house edge. 

General means to lower the casino's edge

Reducing at most our betting rate is not only the best tool to lose less money but to define at most what the fk we're really going to accomplish.
If it's literally impossible to define a betting model capable to win at a fair coin flip proposition, let's think about what are our probabilities to win at a EV- kind of coin flip model.
Zero.

Naturally and to give the casinos the idea we're pure losers we can adopt a spread betting range wagering one standard unit per every hand dealt and betting 3, 4 or 5 x bet in the selected profitable spots.
They do not care a bit about it, every our bet will be EV-. At their eyes.

Of course casinos are simultaneously thrilled and worried about those rare maximum limit bets as the actual bet or next bets cannot be more wrong than the math negative edge applied (after comps and/or rebates).
I mean that no 5k or 20k bet can cross a real -1.06%/-1.24% negative edge as some lost money is given back to the player no matter what.

Conclusively, bac players that are proportionally losing less money are maximum limit bettors, at
the same time constituting a real threat over casino's pockets as the edge remains quite small.
Ask any supervisor casino you want whether he/she would be really enthusiastic about facing an occasional univocal and rare 90K euros bet coming from three different players.
They should have been happy but actually they didn't. Especially after the outcome.

Specific means to invert the house edge

Arrange the cards in the fkng way you want. You can put all same rank cards consecutively or alternatively or whatever you'd like, a most likely distribution or most likely arrangement will come along the way providing previous results are considered by a strict scheme.
A kind of profitable clustering effect will come out along the way by a stastical sensitivity and specificiity rounding 100%.

And we need just one clustering step to be ahead.

as.
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General Discussion / Re: New Jersey Sports Book Cancelling Withdrawals
« Last post by 8OR9 on January 16, 2021, 12:56:42 pm »
d
And yet people never ever learn. The same for casinos but they just use different tactics. The wherewithal and the knowledge of gamblers is totally overwhelmed by their own greed. 

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/47170/nj-sportsbooks-caught-canceling-withdrawals/amp/

And also overwhelmed by their own stupidity.

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