Great detailed explanations with pictures!

If this topic interests you, you must read this!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/11/01/NBA-mafia-betting-poker-charges-investigation/86860683007/#

Great comments, Great reporting, Great points.

I have to agree, the Parking fees and Resort fees were the gateway to the corporate greed and pathways to; Put something in our mini fridge and you are charged, and the $24.00 bottle of water. 

"The strip isn't empty cause people forgot about it, it's empty because the house changed the rules and the players walked away.  Vegas thought no one would notice, but everyone has!"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bd0AG9doLjY&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D

hi asym, I write better things then just " share a strategy .. "

Whatswhats wrote:

Why didn't explain a single strategy from a to z?

Because, I'm sorry, there's no point to share detailed and specific actions in a public forum, let alone to provide scientifical studies why players could play baccarat with a sure edge over the house.
Well, the cost is 8 M bucks so we're sure it will remain a sort of secret forever.


As always KFB made brilliant comments deserving a deep study to get a proper value from them.

If you can approximate at best the actual conditions and variables 'ranges' happening at the table you're playing at, you can be sure that baccarat is a 100% beatable game as your bets will get a better than 51.3% (B bets) or 50.1% (P bets) cutoffs capable to get you a sure indeniable edge.

See you around and thanks for your interest at reading my pages.

as.

Wow, a lot of good comments needing some time to respond.

@KFB:  B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 11.62% of the times,

Yep, you're right:  the correct version is:

B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 8.6% of the times

Don't know why this 11.62% came from....

I'll be back later

as.

Quote from: KungFuBac on October 27, 2025, 04:45:36 PMGood post Whatswhat.

Thanks really!

Meanwhile for asym, it's rare but i see personally that happen very often, almost with the SYM that I decide to bet against that are what I wrote before with X/O

So for you the best ASYM/SYM what is?

Meaning the ASYM I explain are the quality and quantity ASYM in my opinion but you are ahead of me obviously so i never talk on forum etc.. but its the moment.

Because at the end get a SSS and every S is a 4 hand group, is pratically bet against that a 3 prefixed pattern of 4 hand will appear continuesly, can be this another fallacy?

Or anyway mathematically if we before play decide to do this the stats say what you and I say before so there is an advantage?

I say this because you and kunk/alex give a lot of good info here.

Really and I personally take every info and then make it in mine way, I literally study every post of this entire topic,

Why didn't explain a single strategy from a to z?

I ask this because with a we'll explain strategy we can then go further with other concept or improve it.

Obviously you explain well how to bet with A/S , when is better to bet example after a single AA one time or after SS it's the best option.

But is possible to have an entire plan or multiple plan?

Obviously I didn't ask private things just a better summary or what you already decide to share, like I said i study very post but obviously a summary from the owner will be a gold value for then in my case applicate my other concept or idea.

Ps.

Another strategy that I'm testing is your A/S

With column of shoes, obviously we know that  single are 50% of the result then double 25%
and so on.. obviously this didn't mean nothing it's just a stats but betting only in this position can be an idea already developed also by other

So we use 4 column to say if is X/O so I personally use X/O and not anymore B/P etc

X/O is based now on single or double/ or more

This with a not precisely random walk , so on example online baccarat we have multiple table that we can observe so we can choice example the table with SS or our trigger without waiting too long.

But this always with / what we mean for ASYM or sym?

So in a world of X/O and XXXX XXXO etc always with a X of start, what do you think that is the "pattern" symmetrical that we need to bet against?

Good post Whatswhat.

Good post/info alrelax.

It seems like the NBA/ the media have been mostly silent over the past few days since the NBA, gambling, and crime syndicate story broke. IMO, what could go wrong.

This recent storyline was not too surprising.


NBA Sportsbook Partnerships
The NBA has established several partnerships with major sportsbooks to enhance fan engagement and promote sports betting. Here are the key partnerships:

Major Sportsbook Partners
FanDuel   2014, DraftKings 2019, BetMGM 2018, Caesars Sportsbook   2019, Fanatics   2023,

Partnership Highlights
Advertising Spend: Sportsbooks spent over $52 million on advertising during NBA games last season, showcasing the financial commitment to these partnerships.
Content Integration: DraftKings and FanDuel have rights to use NBA data and branding in their betting platforms.
____________________________________________________________________________

Not to be outdone the Major League Baseball responded on 10/26 with the following statement.

"...In the wake of the NBA's betting scandal, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred defended his league's business arrangements with gambling companies as a necessary tool to catch wrongdoers...."

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/mlb-commissioner-defends-sports-gambling-partnerships-for-the-crucial-data-they-offer/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The NCAA also stepped up(So not to be outdone).

"...NCAA athletes and staff will be allowed to bet on professional sports following a rule change that will take effect on November 1.

On October 22, the Division II and Division III management councils revealed that they had approved the rule change, following the Division I Administrative Committee's adoption of the change on October 8.

The rule applies only to professional sports like the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and WNBA.  ..."



https://cdcgaming.com/brief/college-athletes-to-be-allowed-to-bet-on-pro-sports-after-landmark-rule-change/

 

Asym from post 1408

"...Question #2.

Are really existing EV+ bets at baccarat?

Answer: 100% positive.

Most hands are hugely shifted towards one side or another, think about the higher two-card point scenarios that in turn are in strict relationship about the average card distribution...."


     The probability of hands being determined by just two cards, without drawing a fifth or sixth card, has been noted. Currently, and unfortunately, mid-hand wagering is not permitted. I think one potential bonus bet that would be wagered upon by many bonus bettors is one that would allow players to wager on the total number of cards revealed in the next hand. I would be interested (but only if the payout was close to probability).
My consideration has also been given to how the game might change if casinos permitted players to view each side's first card before placing additional bets. Predicting the first card may be more straightforward than estimating the value of subsequent cards such as the fifth or sixth, as those draws are functions of the initial card and the recipient side.

*Side Note.
     A couple years ago on one occasion at a table, a dealer mistakenly began to draw an extra card from the shoe, partially revealing it. Several players noticed what appeared to be an eight; we immediately indicated "No draw." The dealer consulted the pit boss regarding the error, who then asked if any players had seen the card. The players indicated they had not by nodding their heads left to right in unison, lol.  We then subsequently wagered for P in the next hand. The pit boss observed the situation without objection, then after the hand just looked at us and shook his head/ smiled.  We increased our wagers by approximately 2x base bet. LOL. I had a passing thought of pushing my stacks all in which would have been the optimum move. However, I didn't want to abuse the situation.


"...Of course we'll get more hands privileging the final win at B side than at P side, yet such situations move around more likely ranges, considered as "undetectable" by math experts...."

     An additional consideration relevant to the previous paragraph—and reflecting topics discussed by AsymBacGuy over the years—is that it may be possible to gain a slight edge by anticipating the outcome of the next hand, specifically the upcoming sequence of 4, 5, or 6 cards being wagered. From the standpoint of whether the Player is likely to draw a third card, this prediction is obviously influenced by the composition of the remaining total card pool. Therefore, as players, we are effectively forecasting the order in which the next group of 4, 5, or 6 cards will appear. The only certainty is that the next four cards will be dealt with in the following sequence: PBPB.

     
Mr. AsymBacGuy continues:

"...Maybe in the shoe we're playing at or at the two consecutive shoes we're facing a given situation will get us a couple of losing spots. No worries, itlr we'll get a robust edge to rely upon.
On the same token, a couple of more probable consecutive wins should be handled by a kind of caution, meaning that the third bettable spot could be avoided so preserving the actual profit.

Question #3.

How much is our edge at EV+ bets?

Say that most of the times and by considering BP hands as equal outcomes, our placed bets will take a 52/48 probability to win, so getting a -1.3% negative ROI at B bets and a +4% ROI at P bets.
Since B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 11.62% of the times, we know that even B bets are EV+ (on average) at the spots we decided to wager. ..."


     Q1    Asym how are you computing this "advantaged nearly 11.62%" in the above paragraph? Thx in advance.

"...Nonetheless, a super selected strategy waiting for some strong negative deviations to happen at back-to-back shoes will enlarge such values up to 60/40 or more, meaning that our bets will get up to a 3:2 probability to win.

    Q2   Asym  do you track >=2 consecutive shoes waiting for even stronger negative situations vs expectation for that specific event?

     I've considered whether tracking 5-6 consecutive shoes to spot extreme limits would be useful. On busy days, I might play for 8-12 hours over 4-7 shoes of 6-deck EZ Bac. Tracking every card is tedious, so I monitor only a few specific card values per shoe. A team could potentially watch for high EV+ opportunities, but I usually focus on playing the shoe in front of me. I find it helpful to stay in "anticipatory mode" watching for certain events to materialize. While rare events—like those with a probability of 9/16 per shoe (i.e, Improbable to show in any single shoe)—are unlikely in any single shoe, however, their Variance can still cause unpredictable streaks (or droughts). This is just my personal perspective and approach.


"...I've written many examples about that, the easiest is by considering consecutive BP doubles, the patterns' stereotype of symmetry...."
Test your shoes and check out how many back-to-back consecutive doubles came out in the form of 0 (no consecutive doubles), 1 (one consecutive double), 2 (two consecutive doubles) or 3 (three or more consecutive doubles)...."

     I concur with Asym. The interpretation of traditional doubles—often referred to as "terrible twos"—can offer valuable insights, particularly in doubles scenarios such as BBPP. Personally, I prefer to consider any occurrence of doubles as "terrific twos." The deductive reasoning used to assess the increasing improbabilities associated with doubles can equally be applied to other patterns. Many of these "other" patterns result from factors present at this critical juncture (i.e., Doubles), including historical outcomes.
     It is my opinion that one of the primary advantages for players is to base their wagering strategies on the averages and limits typically produced by an average shoe. Occasionally, there will indeed be outlier shoes that defy most statistical norms; however, these too are subject to certain boundaries. It is advisable to cease wagering against such anomaly-outlier shoes and exercise patience rather than attempting to capitalize on significant deviations. By the time it becomes evident that a shoe is intent on surpassing all odds, it may already be approaching its extreme statistical limits, for example, exceeding 2.5-3 standard deviations for a specific event.

*Side Note
I just returned from nine-day trip last week to a larger market. I prefer this market for its higher table max bets, eight-deck shoes, and multiple shoe options at each casino. etc. One session I played a shoe that begin with B26 P12. Several players, including kfb, increased their bets and experienced massive wins.

However, three participants in the early-B run lost all their most-recent winnings by betting against the streak near the B26-12 stage. The shoe continued running to approximately B38-14 before showing a slight shift toward Player in the latter stages. Two players (including that kfb fellow) avoided losses by reducing wager size and slowly decreasing larger pressed bets around the B26-12 point. The Banker side had produced multiple streaks exceeding six wins, including one streak of ten and another of seven consecutive wins. It was amazing as near this B26-12 scenario the three of the  (big-win-give-wins-back) players in unison said to each other: "You think P? Yeah lets go P", ...etc.
IMO it is best if we watch for a Turning of Events to actually start and then go with the Turn, if one so desire.
     
Asym continued:
"...
Then pretend to make a betting action after any distinct category had shown up once or two times in a row.
I'd guess you'll prefer to bet against clustered single categories...,..."


Thx AsymBacGuy for all your posts currently and through the years as I know it takes a lot of time /effort on your part.


May the wind always be at your back. kfb