The other night, a show following our fantastic and off the wall, abundance of winning side bets.

Equalization.
Heavy 3rd Card Increases and Reductions.
Naturals Cut.
Sections Following.

35 Bankers
36 Players
4 Ties
75 Total Hands

Sides:
2 P8s
2 F7s
1 3 Card 9-9 Heavenly 9s
1 Blazen 7s 2 Card 7-7 Tie
45 Dragon Bonues 4:1 to 30:1 Payouts


Will post later how we played it and some reasoning as to why.

7 iar P
1 B
7 iar P
1 Tie
2 B
1 P
1 B
2 P
1 B
2 P
3 B
1 P
1 Tie
2 B
2 P
2 B
2 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
3 B
5 P
4 B
2 Ties iar (1 3 card 9-9 & 1 Nat 8-8)
1 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
6 B
1 P
5 B

My friend keeps notes on most all shoes as to the card values. I will call him and see if he has these.  Especially to figure out what the Dragon Bonuses paid out.

Good day, folks! a quick notice:

The board will undergo intermittent maintenance at random times today.

We're applying a mandatory upstream update plus some required source-code changes. If you see the maintenance message, please try again later.

Thanks,
Vic

Back to my original topic.

Giving a 0.75% probability to win and assigning W as a winning pattern and L as a losing pattern we'll get infinite W/L successions to take care of.
The least likely succession to face will be a perfect WWWLWWWLWWWL.. succession, meaning that a strong overalternating mood had taken place.

On the other end, since W is 0.75:1, a good rule of thumb is to wager toward getting W as clustered at least once (WW).
L side moves around the same concept, being more isolated (WLW) than clustered (WLL) but since the game is volatile and affected by just one hand whimsically going toward one side than another, we do not want to chase the "end" of any L cluster.

Yet, "long" isolated W situations are way more probable to be intertwined by isolated Ls, so in essence the only real losing sequence is anything like as WLLWLL...

Notice that by falsifying the best randomness definition ever made in the history of probability field (RVM) and according to MvS studies, bac successions are affected by a kind of unrandomness (or instrinsic defects of a finite dependent bac card distributions) capable to get a full value of what is more likely to happen (W clusters and/or L isolated situations) as opposed to what could virtually happen at a 0.5068/0.4932 dynamically proposition.

as.

Regular posters here (Alrelax, me, KFB, etc) are well aware that side bets are enormously favoring the house, yet we have learnt that if we expect that sh.i.t happens (strong unexpected negative deviations) in the same way sometimes "jackpots" happen now favoring players for the huge payment involved.

Rarer events tend to come out in clusters (shorter gaps than the expected probability ratio) or not showing up at all (or once) for long periods, another way to consider bac outcomes under the "asymmetrical" factor.

Paradoxically not everytime the HE is the primary tool to look for, maybe it would be better to take care of the possible payement and the relative volatility.
Paradoxically only the side bets are mathematically favoring the players by card counting techniques (mostly by not getting a practical substantial edge over the house).

I've already mentioned the team wagering the naturals 8/9 or 9/8 situation (payement 50:1), obviously starting to bet whenever the naturals/any other hand ratio (34.2%) of any shoe was very low, then adding the current number of 8s/9s live in the deck.
Since the betting usually started after half of the deck was dealt, we know that just one winning situation was able to get a profit no matter what. 

Another side bet particularly present nowadays is the Tiger bet, the situation where Banker wins by a 6 point.
Probability that such event will come out is 5.38%, so we'll expect on average one Tiger event out of nearly 20 hands dealt, so around four times at any 8-deck shoe.
HE at Tiger bet is very huge, 14.33% when B wins with two cards 6 (Small Tiger, payement 22:1) and 15.25% when B wins with three cards 6 (Big Tiger, payment 50:1), aggravated when a general Tiger bet cumulatively takes care of both situations (16.68%, payments are respectively 12:1 and 20:1).

Regardless of the actual shoe conditions (number of 6s, number of 8s/9s) itlr we'll expect a B 6 point distributions shifted towards the P side (B 12.8% and P 14%) and the same is about 7, 8 and 9 points not belonging to naturals (respectively 13.5% vs 14%, 4.2% vs 4.9% and again 4.2% vs 4.9%).
Therefore 6,7,8 and 9 points (no naturals) happening at P side are more likely to show up than 6,7,8,9 points (no naturals) at B side.
On the other end, many 6- 0 value card situations are symmetrically falling at B side so it's just an educated guess about how many same/superior points P side will get, the remaining situations (B6-P drawing) are favorite to win.       

About F-7 (payment 40:1) we know they are quite unlikely to happen, mostly coming out, on average, just once per every shoe played.

Then Dragon bonus being nearly 4 times more burdened by the HE at B side than at P side.

Ties should be never ever wagered, too tiny payed and too whimsically distributed.

I don't know about other side bets, maybe Alrelax could be of some help here.

0=0=0

In our opinion side bets should never be considered as the main way to collect profits (or to recoup a previous deficit) but sometimes they could be a viable tool to enlarge at most an actual positive session as back to back or short gapped side bets happenings MUST come out sooner or later.

as.

The other night we had an absolutely great session with two shoes as explained in post number 1510 in AsymBacGuy's thread.  Click on link to read it.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10695.msg73464;topicseen#msg73464

The three of us desiring to wind down the extreme hype we all had, discuss the events and eat some great food went to an off-property fantastic steakhouse.   

What we had:  20 ounce T-bone. Prime rib with a great horseradish cream sauce. Huge porterhouse steak. Our plan was for each of us to split those. Sautéed mushrooms and garlic grilled Parm lemon asparagus. For dessert we ordered banana cream pie and chocolate mousse pie and a cheesecake with fresh raspberries with extra raspberries on the side. They are known for huge desserts which we knew we could split them amongst ourselves.

Summation of what we talked about: Great BAC players do not convince themselves they have a rock solid winning guarantee.  Anything and everything can quickly fail and likewise anything and everything can quickly turn into great profitability.

A great BAC player knows when to quit, so they do not go broke and you have enough money for the next session.

A great BAC player will not take away his next chance, by refusing to walk away from the session that is not working. An extremely difficult decision to make and always unknown if it can change, because we tend to hold the past in our inner resistance as I have described in other writings on the board here.

But it involves admitting failure if we walk away while losing money. That is almost too hard to do for most all of us. Most of us can't even imagine walking away while we're losing unless we bust our entire buy-in amount without re-buying in and attempting to recoup. And that my friends is what, at least our group now recognizes and pledged not to fall prey to as a protocol.

Countless fantastic BAC players talk a good game, a good plan as well as having excellent triggers, but if you cannot execute them for whatever reasons, you are going to lose each and every time.

We talked about it and discussed in detail the absolute necessity of being totally in conscious and that is fully 100% conscious while playing; being resilient as well as recognizing and being conscious of our inner habits that we all have. I've written about those on the forum here as I have mentioned in other writings on the forum.

The last thing that we discussed was not taking a view of 'in totality' when playing a shoe.  We all agreed on recognizing  'Sections' and having some sort of blinders on to the left and right sides of each 'Section' of the shoe. 

What we did after dinner and desserts:  We shared a fantastic bottle of Hennessy XO Cognac, along with side dishes of fresh grapes, sliced pears and beautifully smoked and sea salted herring.  We then recalled the comical events and situations of our side bets that most all of us continued to hit including in detail the back-to-back Fortune 7s and the back-to-back Panda 8s.  My two BAC buddies mimicked me with the details of the back-to-back F7 $1,900 dealer tip I had the lady fall prey to, as well as the waitress sprinkling her magical dust on the cards for the back-to-back P8 and the players side dragon bonus 8-0.

Our bill came to just under $1,100 but it was well worth the $450.00 each we tossed in! 

The laughter, the camaraderie and the experience of live table 'anything goes' baccarat, priceless to the hundredth degree!

Quote from: KungFuBac on March 25, 2026, 04:56:37 AMI travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

     The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
     

Continued Success,

Thanks KFB for posting this!

More or less I got similar responses from a couple of floormen working at two different HS rooms.

Very HS players are there to gamble, period. And most of them are totally insensitive of the money lost for the reasons you wrote. 

Surprisingly both think that the game could be beatable by players patiently waiting for the "right" opportunities as infinite coin flip propositions must markedly go in one univocal way, the job is just to wait for such deviations.

About the side bets wagering, I will make a post later.

as.

Kungfubac wrote in the above post:  "I play with a man that plays similar to Alrelax (I perceive). Though I've never played with or met alrelax. So just from what he posts/my perception(I may be incorrect).

This fellow bac mate doesn't cover ALL the bonus bets at once. However, he wagers on one or two bonus bets once thewy have been triggered,  at the same time, along with a base bet(P or B). He is very disciplined and presses back and forth with winnings from either (bonus bets--base bets) and always bets a little more on whatever just hit(P,B, Panda8,Fortune7,...etc). In other words he tries to use the just-won monies to feed larger wagers."

Here is a shoe from a couple of nights ago, worth almost $20k in conservative side bets wagered, but both sides (P and B side bets) and pretty much consistently.

The following sides the shoe produced:

4th hand was a beautiful 3 card 9-9 Tie for Heavenly 9s, 75:1

4 Panda 8s
3 Fortune 7s
8 3 card 9s for Heavenly 9s
1 3 card 9-9 tie Heavenly 9 75:1
4 3 card 9-0 dragon bonuses 30:1
2 fortune 7 back-to-back
2 panda 8s back-to-back

At least 10 wins by 7 points for dragon bonuses
At least 8 wins by 8 points for dragon bonuses

After hitting the 3 card 9-9 tie on the 4th hand for a Quarter, I allocated that win to side bets.  And boy, did it pay off!

Reference the back to back F7 and the back to back P8s:

Hand 26.  The second back to back F7 was great.  Whole table on bankers.  Couple others were on the first one.  I covered the 2nd one and forced someone else I play regularly with to covered it.  She didn't want to.  I put $50.00 on the rail in front of her and told her, no F7 you are whole.  F7 you give the dealer $1,900 and you keep $100.00 profit.  She laughs, dealer laughs and smiles, floor person says, "Glen with his drama again"!  Okay, players have a 5 and bankers have a total of 6.  She says, "see I told your A**", I look at the dealer and say we need a 6/7 for the players.  4 or 5 people stand and do the 6-7 thing with their hands jumping up and down.  Floor person says, "no drama like Glen".  Dealer flips a 6 for the players.  I stand and yell out, Ace Baby, Ace Baby, Ace Baby!  Dealer's hand is shaking a bit.  Floor person crosses his arms and says, "no friggen way, it ain't going to happen"!  I say, "it ain't over until it's over".  Dealer flips a darn Ace!!!  FORTUNE 7!  I don't think the dealer recognized that the floor person was standing right there.  Dealer yells out, "FLOOR!".  I yell out, dealer going to drop $1,900 for the boys!  Nearby dealers are clapping.  Floor person says, "this kind of drama really only happens when Glen is here".  We all make fun of the lady who made $100.00 on her $50.00 F7 wager telling her she wouldn't even have made that if she didn't listen to me!  Another person shouts out, "your the first to profit only a hundred dollars on a $50.00 F7 wager that won".  It was great!

Hand 25.  Oh yeah I forgot, I snapped a quick pic of the first F7 in the above described back to back fun drama event.  It was a three card 6/7 F7 which was celebrated with several standing doing that 6/7 thing!  In case you are saying I'm bull sh**ing everyone, I got a pic.  It was classic!  I'm posting the pic below the scoreboard picture of this one.  Flopping a 6 of hearts for the players third card and then a 7 of hearts for the bankers.  Love it.  I also won by 6 for a dragon bonus payout of 4:1 for a few hundred.  I took that payout down before sneaking the picture. 

Here's what happened on the back to back P8:

Ok onward with the Panda 8 back to back event to finalize here.

Although P8 came while bank already made 7 repeats in a row, I won all those with two full parlays and pulling down each win.  Easy and non stressful wagering!  Had a few hundred on banker as my basic base wager and maximum on the player Dragon Bonus and P8. Player had a 2 and bankers had a 7 on those first two cards. Player flops a 6. P 8 and the first P8 of the back to back came about. I switched to players with near table Max and of course a P8, F7 and the dragon Bonus with $50 on each side, B and P.

Several people hit the P8 on hand  53. I set up for a heavy players hand and several commented. Couple asked me reference my thoughts about a back to back P8. Told them, I'm done teaching you guys how to play the Sidebets. Lots of laughs.

The lady with the $1,900 forced dealers tip to my right side on the previous back to back F7, copies my wagering. We fist bumped each other for that show of camaraderie.

Through 2 quarters up on empty P8 spaces for the dealer. My favorite cocktail waitress was just passing by as the cards were pulled out and flipped over. Two face cards for players and a 8 and a 2 for the bankers. I tell The dealer pull the players card and do not flip it over. I put $100 off to the side and tell the waitress, if we get a P8 it's yours. If we get a three card 9-0 it's yours also. Told the waitress reach in there and sprinkle some magical dust on top of that card so we get a snowman. Everyone is laughing of course. Good fun. She does and the flop produces a beautiful snowman, 8 card.

Dealer slides the bankers third card out and once again I told her wait a second please. Told the waitress once again, sprinkle more of your magical dust for a monkey so we also can get an 8-0 for a 10:1 dragon bonus win. Waitress does her thing again with several reciting, don't kill that panda with a nine card. Others just calling for a monkey of course.

Dealer flops the card and it was a monkey card! Players win the base bet, a P8 win and a 10:1 dragon bonus win. Fantastic! Comical but serious fun and serious high profiting payouts!

Yell out once again, dealer dropping $1,250 for the boys! I gave the waitress a $200 tip, all smiles from her! This is one for the memory book and it will be cherished. 

I stress again I do not play the game for Sidebets only and expect side bets to always win. And I allocate money from previous wins as well as part of my risk capital for Wagering Sidebets. I do not wager only one side for the side bets, meaning placing side bets only on the B or P side. I usually wager both sides. As well, the dragon bonuses have been very good to me because they will generally pay off enough to cover the other side bets if they lose or nearly what I lost on the other side bets.

Yes, these shoes do not come along every session, but like everything else in bac at the live tables, when it's there, it's there. I love those high paying, quick profitable side bets that pay handsomely!

Thx for post.

Yes, I play alot of shoes and set in front of many hands(I just don't wager on many).

*I play with a man that plays similar to Alrelax (I perceive). Though I've never played with or met alrelax. So just from what he posts/my perception(I may be incorrect).

This fellow bac mate doesn't cover ALL the bonus bets at once. However, he wagers on one or two bonus bets once thewy have been triggered,  at the same time, along with a base bet(P or B). He is very disciplined and presses back and forth with winnings from either (bonus bets--base bets) and always bets a little more on whatever just hit(P,B, Panda8,Fortune7,...etc). In other words he tries to use the just-won monies to feed larger wagers.

Like me he feels that if something has been activated it is more probable to hit one more time(Vs an event that has never occurred in this shoe and to bet with the hypothesis it will now present "just for me" at this given moment of time).

**A couple days ago we had both played about 10hours that day and the past 6hours at the same two tables. It had been rough sailing for most of day.

I was up approx 500-600, and he was down 850(just after he had won a few hands in close proximity). We were both very tired and each had about a two hour drive in front of us(about 10pm). He stands up and tells the pit "color coming in", and I say out loud "we've got a quitter". We all laugh along with the pit boss and dealer laughing as they knew we had been there along time. As he stands up the dealer deals a bonus win on the panda 8.
My table mate  then says Ok Im back in and then adds: "I know Im probably going to regret this". In a matter of probably 20moins he hits two bonus bets (25:1, and 50:1), then a Fortune7 at 40:1. He jumps up and says Im gone(and whispers to me "I was down 850/closest to even I had been all day, and now Im up over $6K).

As he is waiting for the pit to verify the color up he then teases me: "You gotta bet the Fortune7". As he knows I seldom bet any bonus bets and only occasionally wager the F7 and typically only when Im at a critical pressed-up size/want to do a partial hedge on what I have in the wager,...etc.

I was glad for him. Sometimes Variance smiles up on us. This guy is a veteran player and has a solid money management system in place. I just don't care for the Variance involved as I have plenty volatility trying to navigate a simple base bet(P or B), lol.

I colored up a short time later still near the same balance.



Continued Success To All,

Quote from: KungFuBac on March 25, 2026, 04:56:37 AMI travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

    The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
   

Continued Success,

   

I agree on a general point.  Especially if one (pro or very experienced) plays consistently and a great amount of shoes. 

However I have developed an allocation of MMM from winnings, a portion of my risk capital and certain winnings go into my wagering ammunition for the side betting.  I have certain parameters I follow, especially in the beginning of shoes. 

My overall 'hit' ratio has been 3 successful out of 4/5 sessions with a considerable amount of side bets hit as shown in my pictures with 3-5 sizable side bets won for the one or two shoes I play in a session.  And, those 3 successful side bet session hits produce way more profits than the 1-2 sessions I failed to cover my side betting investment allocations. 

I do not play anywhere near the amount of shoes you guys are playing these days.  So maybe that is a factor? 

In my MMM I do have rock solid resetting and pos progressive winning protocols, etc., etc.  My 'Sections' and '1/3-1/3-1/3' are my other two advantages serving me extremely well over the long run. 

Thanks, Alrelax

I agree.
This scam was actually a little more sophisticated than most.


Continued Success,
KFB