Quote from: AsymBacGuy on Yesterday at 08:57:08 PMThe above considerations might suggest what we name as "The right/wrong bettors strategy" knowing that baccarat is formed by an half part of frustration and an half part of patience. Obviously both factors being not perfectly balanced along any shoe we're destined to face.

More later.

as. 

Oh absolutely!  Just this morning I was discussing this very same topic with my regular playing peers!!!

So very very true. But for most players it is much larger than 'half' part frustration.  It really is.

The above considerations might suggest what we name as "The right/wrong bettors strategy" knowing that baccarat is formed by an half part of frustration and an half part of patience. Obviously both factors being not perfectly balanced along any shoe we're destined to face.

More later.

as. 

Like my man Ron White says, "you cannot fix stupid!". This guy has to be the ultra stupidity of all idiotic F***ing people.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-bQ2qwjsM


And like my man says:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UQv7Tr8HbGE&pp=ygUecm9uIHdoaXRlIHlvdSBjYW4ndCBmaXggc3R1cGlk

Here is a very detailed outline of what is happening.  It affects all California card rooms with card games.

https://capitolweekly.net/cardrooms-file-legal-challenge-to-new-gaming-regulations/

Here are the changes effective April 1st, 2026.

On February 6, 2026, California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced that the Office of Administrative Law approved two long pending California Department of Justice regulations governing cardroom operations. The regulations were finalized without substantive revision and will take effect on April 1, 2026. This marks a significant shift in how cardrooms may lawfully operate their most popular games.

https://www.womblebonddickinson.com/us/insights/alerts/california-cardrooms-face-major-operational-shift-following-doj-rule-approval

The other night, a show following our fantastic and off the wall, abundance of winning side bets.

Equalization.
Heavy 3rd Card Increases and Reductions.
Naturals Cut.
Sections Following.

35 Bankers
36 Players
4 Ties
75 Total Hands

Sides:
2 P8s
2 F7s
1–3 Card 9-9 Heavenly 9s
1 Blazen 7s 2 Card 7-7 Tie
11–3 Card 9s Heavenly 9s
45–Dragon Bonues 4:1 to 30:1 Payouts


Will post later how we played it and some reasoning as to why.

7 iar P
1 B
7 iar P
1 Tie
2 B
1 P
1 B
2 P
1 B
2 P
3 B
1 P
1 Tie
2 B
2 P
2 B
2 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
3 B
5 P
4 B
2 Ties iar (1 3 card 9-9 & 1 Nat 8-8)
1 P
1 B
1 P
1 B
1 P
6 B
1 P
5 B

My friend keeps notes on most all shoes as to the card values. I will call him and see if he has these.  Especially to figure out what the Dragon Bonuses paid out.

Back to my original topic.

Giving a 0.75% probability to win and assigning W as a winning pattern and L as a losing pattern we'll get infinite W/L successions to take care of.
The least likely succession to face will be a perfect WWWLWWWLWWWL.. succession, meaning that a strong overalternating mood had taken place.

On the other end, since W is 0.75:1, a good rule of thumb is to wager toward getting W as clustered at least once (WW).
L side moves around the same concept, being more isolated (WLW) than clustered (WLL) but since the game is volatile and affected by just one hand whimsically going toward one side than another, we do not want to chase the "end" of any L cluster.

Yet, "long" isolated W situations are way more probable to be intertwined by isolated Ls, so in essence the only real losing sequence is anything like as WLLWLL...

Notice that by falsifying the best randomness definition ever made in the history of probability field (RVM) and according to MvS studies, bac successions are affected by a kind of unrandomness (or instrinsic defects of a finite dependent bac card distributions) capable to get a full value of what is more likely to happen (W clusters and/or L isolated situations) as opposed to what could virtually happen at a 0.5068/0.4932 dynamically proposition.

as.

Regular posters here (Alrelax, me, KFB, etc) are well aware that side bets are enormously favoring the house, yet we have learnt that if we expect that sh.i.t happens (strong unexpected negative deviations) in the same way sometimes "jackpots" happen now favoring players for the huge payment involved.

Rarer events tend to come out in clusters (shorter gaps than the expected probability ratio) or not showing up at all (or once) for long periods, another way to consider bac outcomes under the "asymmetrical" factor.

Paradoxically not everytime the HE is the primary tool to look for, maybe it would be better to take care of the possible payement and the relative volatility.
Paradoxically only the side bets are mathematically favoring the players by card counting techniques (mostly by not getting a practical substantial edge over the house).

I've already mentioned the team wagering the naturals 8/9 or 9/8 situation (payement 50:1), obviously starting to bet whenever the naturals/any other hand ratio (34.2%) of any shoe was very low, then adding the current number of 8s/9s live in the deck.
Since the betting usually started after half of the deck was dealt, we know that just one winning situation was able to get a profit no matter what. 

Another side bet particularly present nowadays is the Tiger bet, the situation where Banker wins by a 6 point.
Probability that such event will come out is 5.38%, so we'll expect on average one Tiger event out of nearly 20 hands dealt, so around four times at any 8-deck shoe.
HE at Tiger bet is very huge, 14.33% when B wins with two cards 6 (Small Tiger, payement 22:1) and 15.25% when B wins with three cards 6 (Big Tiger, payment 50:1), aggravated when a general Tiger bet cumulatively takes care of both situations (16.68%, payments are respectively 12:1 and 20:1).

Regardless of the actual shoe conditions (number of 6s, number of 8s/9s) itlr we'll expect a B 6 point distributions shifted towards the P side (B 12.8% and P 14%) and the same is about 7, 8 and 9 points not belonging to naturals (respectively 13.5% vs 14%, 4.2% vs 4.9% and again 4.2% vs 4.9%).
Therefore 6,7,8 and 9 points (no naturals) happening at P side are more likely to show up than 6,7,8,9 points (no naturals) at B side.
On the other end, many 6- 0 value card situations are symmetrically falling at B side so it's just an educated guess about how many same/superior points P side will get, the remaining situations (B6-P drawing) are favorite to win.       

About F-7 (payment 40:1) we know they are quite unlikely to happen, mostly coming out, on average, just once per every shoe played.

Then Dragon bonus being nearly 4 times more burdened by the HE at B side than at P side.

Ties should be never ever wagered, too tiny payed and too whimsically distributed.

I don't know about other side bets, maybe Alrelax could be of some help here.

0=0=0

In our opinion side bets should never be considered as the main way to collect profits (or to recoup a previous deficit) but sometimes they could be a viable tool to enlarge at most an actual positive session as back to back or short gapped side bets happenings MUST come out sooner or later.

as.

The other night we had an absolutely great session with two shoes as explained in post number 1510 in AsymBacGuy's thread.  Click on link to read it.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10695.msg73464;topicseen#msg73464

The three of us desiring to wind down the extreme hype we all had, discuss the events and eat some great food went to an off-property fantastic steakhouse.   

What we had:  20 ounce T-bone. Prime rib with a great horseradish cream sauce. Huge porterhouse steak. Our plan was for each of us to split those. Sautéed mushrooms and garlic grilled Parm lemon asparagus. For dessert we ordered banana cream pie and chocolate mousse pie and a cheesecake with fresh raspberries with extra raspberries on the side. They are known for huge desserts which we knew we could split them amongst ourselves.

Summation of what we talked about: Great BAC players do not convince themselves they have a rock solid winning guarantee.  Anything and everything can quickly fail and likewise anything and everything can quickly turn into great profitability.

A great BAC player knows when to quit, so they do not go broke and you have enough money for the next session.

A great BAC player will not take away his next chance, by refusing to walk away from the session that is not working. An extremely difficult decision to make and always unknown if it can change, because we tend to hold the past in our inner resistance as I have described in other writings on the board here.

But it involves admitting failure if we walk away while losing money. That is almost too hard to do for most all of us. Most of us can't even imagine walking away while we're losing unless we bust our entire buy-in amount without re-buying in and attempting to recoup. And that my friends is what, at least our group now recognizes and pledged not to fall prey to as a protocol.

Countless fantastic BAC players talk a good game, a good plan as well as having excellent triggers, but if you cannot execute them for whatever reasons, you are going to lose each and every time.

We talked about it and discussed in detail the absolute necessity of being totally in conscious and that is fully 100% conscious while playing; being resilient as well as recognizing and being conscious of our inner habits that we all have. I've written about those on the forum here as I have mentioned in other writings on the forum.

The last thing that we discussed was not taking a view of 'in totality' when playing a shoe.  We all agreed on recognizing  'Sections' and having some sort of blinders on to the left and right sides of each 'Section' of the shoe. 

What we did after dinner and desserts:  We shared a fantastic bottle of Hennessy XO Cognac, along with side dishes of fresh grapes, sliced pears and beautifully smoked and sea salted herring.  We then recalled the comical events and situations of our side bets that most all of us continued to hit including in detail the back-to-back Fortune 7s and the back-to-back Panda 8s.  My two BAC buddies mimicked me with the details of the back-to-back F7 $1,900 dealer tip I had the lady fall prey to, as well as the waitress sprinkling her magical dust on the cards for the back-to-back P8 and the players side dragon bonus 8-0.

Our bill came to just under $1,100 but it was well worth the $450.00 each we tossed in! 

The laughter, the camaraderie and the experience of live table 'anything goes' baccarat, priceless to the hundredth degree!

Quote from: KungFuBac on March 25, 2026, 04:56:37 AMI travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

     The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
     

Continued Success,

Thanks KFB for posting this!

More or less I got similar responses from a couple of floormen working at two different HS rooms.

Very HS players are there to gamble, period. And most of them are totally insensitive of the money lost for the reasons you wrote. 

Surprisingly both think that the game could be beatable by players patiently waiting for the "right" opportunities as infinite coin flip propositions must markedly go in one univocal way, the job is just to wait for such deviations.

About the side bets wagering, I will make a post later.

as.