Kungfubac wrote: "The main issue from wagering too small is one can't "move the needle" (i.e., bankroll). Yes one may delay busting a buyin with this dinking/donking."

This is past North of correct!  At times I have witnessed the so called "good" players do the same.  And IMO and Experience, it throws the table off balance.  IMO, it is far better just to sit out hands rather than the dinking b.s.! 

Look at the ultra strong Banker clump I posted in a thread recently and you will see others NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE of ez-peasy money.  I say ultra strong bankers because of the 7 naturals straight and a 3 card 9-0, prior to additional bankers continuing.  They are wagering table min!  Ludicrous.

Here is the picture below.  16 strong Bankers clump with 3 beautiful side wagers won, Fortune 7, and two 3 card bankers 9 to players 0.  They are continually wagering table min of $25 and I am doing $550, $1,100 and $2,200 wagers several times throughout it.  Some I did drop down on the second parlay.  But an easy $10-$15k profit at a low stakes table. 

ASYM, I didn't understand well why you got the sequence of W/L , example why first is WL while other just W?

Thanks for your valuable comments.

Both replies focus about the importance of concentrating our action when things seem to go in our favor and/or when expected values are more likely to show up.

Casinos will make their enormous bac profits by exploiting the uncertainty but this will get limits of intervention capable to erase/invert the HE.
Only the "time" factor will help us to define such limits but at the same time long term data assessments (or long term experience) will direct us to play the right spots where the uncertainty is underdog to come out so favoring more likely situations to show up.

Example.

Probability that any shoe will present at least a 1-2 succession in any order (1-1, 1-2, 2-1 or 2-2) longer than one (enemies: 1-3, 2-3) is 100%, so it's just a matter of time to spot the shoe fragments where a 1 or 2 will be followed by at least another 1 or 2 before a 3 happens.
More importantly is assessing back to back shoes where precise pattern positions are less likely to form same back to back situations (ranges) for "long".

Here some shoes (just the first 14 patterns are displayed for simplicity):

1-1-1-1-3-2-3-1-2-1-3-1-2-3
2-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-3-3-2-1-3
3-3-1-2-3-1-3-3-2-2-3-2-2-1
1-1-3-1-3-2-3-1-1-1-2-2-1-3
3-3-3-3-3-1-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1
3-2-1-1-1-3-3-1-2-1-1-1-2-3

So far how many 1-2 patterns longer than one are VERTICALLY showing up per each of the 14 columns? W= win and L=loss

01) WL
02) WL
03) W
04) W
05) L
06) LW
07) L
08) WW
09) W
10) LW
11) W
12) W
13) W
14) LL

Now, if you have to make some "guesses" about the next W/L patterns belonging to the simple 1/2 lenght what will you expect to get?

1-2-1-3-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-1
2-1-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-1-3-2-1-2
2-1-3-3-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-2-1
2-1-3-1-2-2-3-1-2-1-1-2-3-2
2-2-1-3-1-1-1-3-2-1-3-3-3-3
3-3-2-3-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-3-2-1

Again considering vertically those outcomes we'll get:

01) W
02) W
03) LW
04) L
05) W
06) W
07) WW
08) LW
09) W
10) W
11) LW
12) WL
13) W
14) W

There are infinite statistical considerations to be made, for example that the only column providing ALL 1-2 patterns is just the column #9.
On the other end, all columns getting a loss (L) on the first six shoes dealt (#5, #6, #7, #10 and #14) got a W on the next six shoes dealt.
(L happening at columns #1, #2 and #14 after the first shoes sequence didn't get a second result to be compared at the second shoes succession).

We mean that "limits" should be evaluated not only by the simple single shoes' texture but even by the back-to-back shoes sequence (vertical shape) that cannot provide harsh deviations for more than one column in most cases.

as.   

This will be interesting. I suspect we will see dozens more involved. Of course the NBA, NCAA, and most media will attempt to downplay all of this fraud. i recently saw several similar (betting on their games) cases at the collegiate level too.

AsymBacGuy above in post 1490:

"...Variance is in direct relationship of the number of hands played (or observed) and not about time fragments, so as players we can easily expect many 1 hour losing sessions in a row and maybe a 24 hour session could be a terrific winning session not comparable with many 1 hour winning sessions.

So as long as we play with a verified long term advantage, we'll expect to win money regardless of the time sessions (and actual short term results) so the more we play and the more we win (in the exact same way casinos are confident to separate money from their customers' pockets)..."

Both phrases in BOLD are key in my opinion.

One needs to thoroughly understand the Variance for ones chosen bet selection.

The second phrase "Verified Long-Term Advantage" (meaning % > than casinos' written-in edge), is what we should base our other key metrics: bet size to buyin.

If one knows they have a verified advantage one should try to get as much money, as mathematically efficient (as a f(x) of advantage) as possible, as often as possible.

*I encourage all players to total all wagers placed and then divide their NET+$(or Net-$) into that. Most players do not realize the grand total of all the wagers they place in a single shoe. Pay attention to this tiny metric (%ratio), and what limit this tiny metric will tend to approach "as a Limit".

I observe many players dinking/donking at table min(& significantly less than optimal) based on their buyin(& known bankroll).
The main issue from wagering too small is one can't "move the needle" (i.e., bankroll). Yes one may delay busting a buyin with this dinking/donking.

However, the capacity to compound ones tiny advantage (i.e., vibrate), up through ones bankroll will swamp all those busted buyins.


Continued Success To All,

alrelax in OP

"...There are basically 14 presentment trends,.."

Thx for listing.

I had not considered the "Ties Cut Ties Stick .
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AsymBacGuy above:

1 Side Heavy Building 3rd Card (Repetitive)
1 Side Extreme Reduction 3rd Card (Repetitive)


I think this has some merit as a benchmark(especially if used in tandem with other related triggers).

Although I won't be wagering on this I do think Caesars will have a new owner in the near future(Or at least will go through another restructuring). However, IMO it will happen after 1/1/27.
So if I was forced to bet I would go NO.
?What say you?

According to Kalshi this is the proposition:  "If any company announces an agreement to acquire Caesars Entertainment Inc before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify.


https://cdcgaming.com/commentary/betting-on-a-new-caesar/

Your Guide to Ladder Betting Online in 2026 (Link at the very bottom)

I do not wager sports in this manner. However, the headline caught my attention. As I play with a Baccarat player that does something similar to Ladder Betting on Bac. He will wager approx >=24-36 wagers on P or B(Not necessarily in same shoe).
If he is winning he does not do a ladder.

If he is down 1/2 of his total number of bets at anytime he will start wagering for a Panda at an amount that will make him even again.
If he draws down further he will then start wagering for Dragon7 at an amount that will make him even again.

If for example he has attempted to get even on Panda, then Dragon7, and still not even(But then sees the other bonus bet hit(when he wasn't on it), he will then switch to the bonus bet that just hit.
Again, always wagering so that a win will get him even. If he ever gets even he starts in again with only P or B.

Im not an advocate for (or against) this approach as I have never played like this.
He has only been doing this for about 6 months.
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https://readwrite.com/gambling/guides/ladder-betting/

Baccarat Trip Report

Reflections on a Seven-Day Out-of-Local Market Casino Run

I recently completed a seven-day out-of-my-market baccarat trip.

Below, I'll detail some highlights and lowlights from the excursion.


Typical Wager Strategy and Trip Frequency

Some of my regular playing companions from this forum know that whenever I accumulate five or more pressed-up wagers at the table maximum in my local casino markets (typically $4,000 or $5,000), I set aside two of those five maximum wagers for a trip to a casino market where the table maximum exceeds $5,000. If Im fortunate enough to reach seven wagers pressed up to $5,000, I set aside three for a future trip, and so on. If I do get this favor, I travel interstate for baccarat.  Usually every three to four weeks, though sometimes it's >= eight to ten weeks between trips.

This particular trip, I only had three pressed-up wagers. I went one win and two losses, with the win losing on its very next attempt. Overall, it was less productive than I would have liked.

Casino Access

My main motivation for these out-of-state trips is the desire to play pressed-up wagers as soon as possible to compound winnings. Living in casino country, I have access to approximately 120 casinos within a three-hour drive. Unfortunately, I have to drive a couple hours to play at a casino with a  >$5K Table Max.

Current Trip Overview

Sports Betting

Sports bets:
Typically I try to find the best EV+ wager and choose  one per diem.  This trip I couldn't find one every day. So only three wagers for the whole week. I had one win and two losses, resulting in a net gain of 0.588 units. On my previous trip, I had placed a single sports wager and parlayed all wins for a $4,000 net win from a $240 BaseUnit(BU). This time, my optimism for a repeat faded quickly after losing my first two wagers and not finding many positive expected value (EV+) opportunities. I am generally indifferent to the sport, team, or individual I bet on, relying mostly on analytics. Sometimes I wager on hockey in Canada, tennis tournaments, boxing, or other events, and typically don't watch the matches, only checking the scores occasionally during the event.

I use AI to sort through all sporting events and identify the one to three highest EV+ offerings for the day, then tweak my selections using personal criteria to place one bet per day. Some days, there are no EV+ wagers worth considering (I prefer EV+ greater than 10.0 for further research).


Baccarat Sessions

Baccarat: I won all sessions except one. However, only a few easy shoes/sessions.

The losing session was due in part to leaving for a previously scheduled dinner while I was down 2.7 base units. After returning about an hour later, I made up the loss and left with a gain of 7.3 base units. Normally, I wouldn't record this as a loss, treating it like a routine break.

In my home market, a typical day at the casino involves playing four to seven shoes over eight to fourteen hours. I usually record four to seven sessions, though sometimes I play five to seven shoes and record only two to four sessions due to ongoing pressed-up wagers, even though I may be Net- until that larger wager(s) are decisioned. This trip mirrored these typical routines: I played all day, every day. Though often drawing down after one or more shoes and continuing until I was positive or busted  my buy-in. Thankfully I didn't bust any buyins but that is very difficult as I don't chase when guessing wrong. The key metric is having at least one active pressed-up wager. I always feel if I have 1-3  pressed-up wagers that haven't been decisioned I can overcome any initial drawdown. I just need one to slip through the cracks.

Side Note:

Compounding is a very powerful tool IMO as I do not perceive I could survive day in and day out wagering only Flat. In other words I perceive it is important for a player to know the average Wins-In-A-Row one gets from X# of tries(The buy in). Because some days I guess wrong more than I guess correct.

Back to the trip report

This interstate journey was uneventful for the most part. My largest per-shoe win was only 16.7 base units. Most shoes and sessions started with struggles, but I would eventually return to the positive. After all pressed-up wagers were resolved, I called it a session, or a end to the day, usually with just a few base units net win.

Free Play and Food Offers

FREEPLAY: I had $1,750 in free play, which I converted into a $905 gain. So not as good as I expected/hoped.

FREE Food Offers:
There was an abundance of food offers, but I generally don't eat in casinos. Most offers were used on  two players who traveled to meet me. It's not about the quality of food in most casinos; I'm just particular, avoiding fried, fast foods, and buffets, and prefer not to spend an hour eating when I could be playing.

Even at home markets casinos, I seldom eat during the day, opting to give away offers or take food to go. Some casinos in my local market allow one to use food vouchers at the snack counter or gift shop. I usually get bottles of Gatorade or coffee beans,...etc to take home.

On this trip, my host kindly booked a $200 dinner at a nice restaurant, anticipating my wife would be traveling with me. She didn't, so I attempted to eat for two,lol,  managing $140 worth:

Calamari with jalapeños as an appetizer, pan-seared scallops, and filet mignon.
All were excellent, though I wouldn't want them daily. I hadn't eaten filet mignon in about twenty years, preferring T-bone steak (grilled at home per my personal recipe), over ribeye, porterhouse, filet mignon,...etc. Nonetheless, the comped dinner was very good and appreciated.

A Couple Of The More Interesting Shoes

One shoe featured eleven consecutive columns of twos (e.g., ppbbpp, etc.). I went zero for two in the middle of the streak, trying to predict a one-in-a-row streak to break the 2x2 run,  then finally caught three wins near the end. Since it was late in the run, I parlayed+ the first W, then reduced to one base unit, and rode it to the finish. Obviously, I didn't capitalize as much as I usually would on such a long run of any similar streak. I kept seeing conflicting intel and was wrong.

The same shoe also had four streaks of four-in-a-row that each extended to five-in-a-row, though not consecutive columns. I guessed wrong twice, betting a four-in-a-row wouldn't become five.
Shortly after the above two-by-two streak ended, I caught a long one-by-one chop that went seven-in-a-row, finishing the shoe with a W of only +8.3 base units and one pressed-up wager left alive for a future shoe.


Another Interesting Shoe

Another shoe had a grouping of eleven player-in-a-row, followed by a sixteen banker-in-a-row just a few columns later. I was at the next table, hoping for a seat, but no one left. Two players fighting the player streak busted and rebought, but I was never able to switch tables.

In nearly three decades of play, including eight-plus years of full-time, 5.5—6.5 days per week of live table action, I've only seen one sixteen-in-a-row chop and one sixteen-player streak. I don't recall ever seeing two lengthy streaks of eleven and sixteen in the same shoe. Occasionally, I've seen two runs of something reach maybe eleven or twelve each(as best I can recall).

Sometimes, baccarat friends in other U. S. States or Macau send photos of boards showing runs of seventeen, nineteen, or even twenty-five in-a-row, usually after the table closes for the night. As it seems there are never players around.  I wonder if casinos make these entries after the night's last shoe for advertising "or torment me", lol.
Recently, an acquaintance sent an image of a twenty-nine-in-a-row Prun from what appeared as an online casino, but he said he wasn't on the streak nor playing at the time, so the source is unclear.

It seems some players upon arrival drift through a 8—12 table baccarat pit, snapping pictures of extreme boards for their YouTube channels or forums. I guess it makes for good conversation.

Unique Event on the Trip

One night, while playing baccarat near the craps table, a friend—a full-time player of blackjack, Texas Hold'em, baccarat, and only occasionally roulette or craps—finished his baccarat session and told me he was going to check out the craps table. He usually plays craps only a couple of times a month, . Ofwaiting on a Bac table to open. Typically sticking to line bets (pass or don't pass) and sometimes taking odds.

After about twenty minutes, he signaled to me to come over, showing a chip rack with about $5,000 profit from a $10,000 buy-in. I gave him a thumbs up and returned to my seat at the baccarat table.

The craps table grew loud and attracted a crowd; about 45m--hour later, my friend was up over $11,000 when the roll ended. Another acquaintance, that mostly plays poker/Bac, and typically betting $1,800 as his base bet, won $138,000 from a $25,000 buy-in, thanks to some shooter tossing excessive repeaters, though only making a few points. My friend only wagers the line (points), and occasionally one other bet. So he didn't make much on this high-repeater hand.

A Humorous End to a Long Day

On one night around midnight, several of us who played together about 14 hrs that day decided to call it a day. One local, whom I'd played with many times, but don't know personally, had done very well—up about $45,000 on his typical $20K buy in .

Most of us cashed out between $7,000 and $12,000 from buy-ins of maybe $5,000 to $10,000, so our cashouts were handled quickly by the two cashier clerks.

Mr. $45K winner then approached the VIP window with around $65,000. One clerk had just left for a break, leaving just one. It took about fifteen minutes for this clerk to handle his chips, counting and verifying each $10,000 stack of USD repeatedly, running through the auto counter, going into the back and getting someone to come out to verify. While a growing line of players waiting to cash out grew frustrated. Some started making snide remarks about "He must be a Baccarat plaer, high-stakes baccarat players taking so long for cashouts, those damn Asian players,...etc", "making them wait in line", making a request to the lone clerk to call someone else out to help, and on and on. My group had already checked out and was waiting for him, so we were just standing to the side/chatting about all the people complaining in line.

A security guard, waiting to escort our friend to his car, finally turned to the crowd and said, "You all sound like my grandkids whining. There's only one clerk, so just chill." We found that amusing. Our friend calmly picked up his  six $10,000 stacks and another $5,000–$6,000 bundle, and just tossed into his brown carry-out food bag, like it was no big deal,  and walked right through the middle of some of the complaining folks, requiring them to step aside for him.

We all walked out together, slowly migrating toward the elevators and escalators, paused for a couple mins, to discuss when and where to play the next morning. We were getting ready to depart on the escalator. The security guard and Mr. $65K were taking the elevator, to the parking garage. The security guard then informed everyone else waiting they'd have to wait for the next elevator. More complaints followed as a couple of those waiting were also from that initial whining group at the cage. That made us laugh as we headed down the escalator.  It seems some folks just love to complain about anything.

Thanks for reading,

I do not wager every hand Albalaha.  I wager 20-30 hands on a good shoe if I'm winning after the first 5-10 or so.

I employ 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd when I win a couple of parlays with the win money.  If I am winning, I cannot give back all of my win.  If I am losing before I win, I will lose a portion of my buy-in before I stop and wait for another shoe or change tables.

Ref win.  $500 wager.  Win, next bet $1,000.  Win next next $2,000.  If I lose, I lost $500 from my risk capital of the buy-in.  If I won I am up $3,500.  I will then employ my 1/3rds with the $3,500 to continue.

I shoot for a few double parlay wins during a Section of a shoe.  I am more successful than not in completing it.  One time completing that will give me 'free' ammunition, non buy-in funds for the additional attempts.  It works for me far greater than failing me.

But, I do not wager every single hand.  If I play out a series of a Section, I might go down to half of my base wager for several consecutive hands as well.

I also set up wagers on Panda 8s, Fortune 7s, Blazzin 777s and Heavenly 9s for the side bets.  Those have been good to me over a period of time.