Thanks KFB, I'll look forward for your valuable inputs and comments.

KFB is a true grinder (I'm referring to another post), he knows very well that to get a possible edge of any kind we need to suffer, to fight, to wait and wait and wait for favourable circumstances and those are not coming out for magical coincidences but because they are "due" for statistical reasons.

Therefore "more likely patterns" or "average distributions/deviations" or the RTM effect showing up after moderate/strong deviations must be properly evaluated by a fair number of shoes dealt.
Even though the rule dictates we are betting 1 to get 0.9894 (B) or 1 to get 0.9876 (P), we shouldn't forget that such unfair propositions are unevenly distributed and it's about this volatile but constant asymmetry that we should focus our attention at.

More later

as. 

Hi AsymBacGuy. I like your post on Players Edge up above in post#1408. I will respond more later when I have time to respond this fine post with proper justice.


May the wind always be at your back, kfb

Good post/comments.

I agree with most. I find it helpful to treat ones time at the table just as one would if your job was a daytrader in other investment markets. There are so many similarities. Mainly in regard to budgeting, goals, stop loss, and most importantly mental management. I do realize treating ones gaming as an investment or business is not for everyone. It could also removes the "fun" from the casino in my opinion. I realize some play for fun or get-away from the daily grind of life. There is not a thing wrong with that approach either.

Most Mistakes/Mistaken

1). Play too long
    I often play 8-12 hours of actual table time per day. This is actual time in front of a table. Not just hanging at the casino eating/drinking/chatting socially.

    One thing I've noticed is when Im getting tired I will accidentally place my wager on the wrong side of what I intended. I know I need to get on the road as Im mentally drained. what's interesting is I often win that bet,lol. I've wondered if my subconscious state was seeing things clearly(or just lucky). Either way I know Im too tired to be risking money.

2). Chasing losses

    IMO this is most players downfall/ the most common nemesis I see at the tables. It is my opinion Males have a little more difficulty with this as we are taught from an early age to win at all costs/never accept defeat. Sometimes retreat is a tactical option(In war and at the bac tables).

One needs to learn how to lose gracefully and just accept it as part of the game. Its no different then selecting the wrong stock or investment. We don't double down we simply exit that stock position and cut our losses. I see far too many players really beat themselves up mentally after a loss. I lose all the time and just accept it as part of the game.

3). Chasing a singular win
4). When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up
5). When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop
6). Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

    (6) This also depends on the type of wagers one primarily makes(e.g., even chance or highly volatile wagers).
IMO one should constantly look to compound their winnings into larger base bet and bankroll. Buyin will obviously be a function of the previous two(& table max allowed). Meaning don't increase anything when losing. Do increase winning Base Bets, Buyins, and Bankrolls. We never know if the winning streak will occur short-term(a run in one shoe), or long-term(across several shoes and session).

If one only wagers highly-volatile bonus bets then I would suggest keeping ones base bet as  a percent of buyin(So # of tries stays the same). Regardless of ones MM for wins it is important to never wager 100% of winnings back through. Put a certain % into an investment vehicle with a high intrinsic value(& completely removed from casino investments.


7). Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

    This is the whole ball game. Plus E.M.(Emotional or mental management).

#8).Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Best Defensive & Offensive

1). Keep game relatively short
2). Believing it will all change soon if you are 100% alert
3). Change your responses to be in control, you create what happens with your wagering and no one else does
4). Long term strength is M.M.M. applied and used as a protocol along
    I concur 100%


Continued Success,

Congrats to this sports bettor. That is certainly an adequate ROI on $50.

The power of compounding.
It works for Bac and other even-chance(ish) games too.
My preference is to do four compounds(i.e., five hits four compounds).


https://www.casino.org/news/louisiana-sports-bettor-turns-50-into-574925-on-six-leg-parlay/

The casino will likely try to settle with the victims for only $25--50 per. Meaning that's what they value our SS#, credit card#, personal identity, et al info.
Most people don't realize how often crime rings /identity theft syndicates (& individual perps) track and hack ones phone, cars, computers,...etc. One should always sue individually and not accept the class-action payout that is initially offered.



https://www.casino.org/news/another-las-vegas-casino-suffered-major-data-breach-in-january/

Player's edge

Anytime we place a bet we need to risk our money by a reason, that is to hope that our wager will get at least a 51.3% winning probability at B bets or a 50.1% probability at P bets.
There are no shortcuts on that, anything different than that will transform us as sure losers.

Question #1.

How many possible advantaged betting situations are going to show up, on average, per any shoe dealt?

Answer: Very few, sometimes none at all.
Therefore more bets we place, esponential lower will be the probability to win itlr.
The reason is because there surely are advantaged situations to be bet but they tend to be diluted by the constant negative HE that in a way or another we have to overcome.

Question #2.

Are really existing EV+ bets at baccarat?

Answer: 100% positive.

Most hands are hugely shifted towards one side or another, think about the higher two-card point scenarios that in turn are in strict relationship about the average card distribution.
Of course we'll get more hands privileging the final win at B side than at P side, yet such situations move around more likely ranges, considered as "undetectable" by math experts.

Maybe in the shoe we're playing at or at the two consecutive shoes we're facing a given situation will get us a couple of losing spots. No worries, itlr we'll get a robust edge to rely upon.
On the same token, a couple of more probable consecutive wins should be handled by a kind of caution, meaning that the third bettable spot could be avoided so preserving the actual profit.

Question #3.

How much is our edge at EV+ bets?

Say that most of the times and by considering BP hands as equal outcomes, our placed bets will take a 52/48 probability to win, so getting a -1.3% negative ROI at B bets and a +4% ROI at P bets.
Since B bets are average 15.86% math advantaged nearly 11.62% of the times, we know that even B bets are EV+ (on average) at the spots we decided to wager.

Nonetheless, a super selected strategy waiting for some strong negative deviations to happen at back-to-back shoes will enlarge such values up to 60/40 or more, meaning that our bets will get up to a 3:2 probability to win.

I've written many examples about that, the easiest is by considering consecutive BP doubles, the patterns' stereotype of symmetry.
Test your shoes and check out how many back-to-back consecutive doubles came out in the form of 0 (no consecutive doubles), 1 (one consecutive double), 2 (two consecutive doubles) or 3 (three or more consecutive doubles).

Then pretend to make a betting action after any distinct category had shown up once or two times in a row.
I'd guess you'll prefer to bet against clustered single categories...

as.

Ok, now I understand better what you're referring about any player's "Tier/Plateau".

as.

In response to Alrelax's points.

The win pattern might not appear as you outlined (3W:1L) with frequency and/or consistently, longer W's can and do appear with 1/2 L's stuck in between.  IMO, to 'look for' a standard in W's is not to a persons best interest.


Exactly and that's what I tried to outline.
By using a 0.75% probability, the 'ideal' world would be WWWLWWWLWWWL...etc, so a kind of this pattern happening constitutes an "abnormality"; hence natural variance/defects of randomness will more likely get successions disregarding such 3:1 ratio.
W situations will be more probable arranged by a W clustered effect different than 3 (2 or 4+) whereas L events tend to keep showing up by an isolated quality feature at random productions.
When in doubt about the randomness acting at the shoe we're playing at, privilege the W clustered way.

"So we can sit serenely at the table knowing that "natural" probabilities will make way more likely to get W clustered and/or L isolated."

Way too many variables and individualistic wagering personalities come into play to generalize this, IMO.

True, IMO the paramount variable to get hints from is our perception about how is randomly shuffled the shoe we're playing at.
With the recent use of SM machines we have zero certainty that cards are arranged by random requisites.

The problem with "expected results" IMO, is that, we never know what will be presented in the small amount of presentments we are gambling at, rather than sitting in front of a computer screen running tens of thousands of simulated hands, etc.  Once you begin classifying as - and +, the frustration for losses as well as the artificial momentums for wins, will usually be detrimental to most all in countless ways when a scheduled protocol is followed for wagering.  NOTE: IMO.

Again this reasonable assumptions tend to be worth whether the shoe isn't randomly shuffled. And it happens very often, so good point.

"Truth to be told, it's quite unlikely that a WLL..WLL...situation happens, especially if we take care of the asym/sym feature of the results."

It happens to me all the time.


No way. Probably I haven't clarified enough that I was talking about a 0.75 probability where WLL..WLL.. sequences are very unlikely to happen. Or that I wasn't so good to present what are asymmetrical patterns vs symmetrical patterns.

"More Due" is extremely profitable as well as detrimental.  Extremely psychological decision making subject.  Wagering decisions are the interpretation that occurs as a result of a combination of several factors usually. The mind (yours and mine) has an automatic tendency to interpret an experience (previous hands of the shoe) or series of experiences (past in relationship to now from other shoes). Attempt to consciously analyze the data from within the experience you are wagering upon at the table is extremely difficult, that is if you are analyzing based upon what the casino desires you to—-the past several hands, etc.  It may seem to you that your mind is simply trying to figure out the experience, but actually it is screening for evidence to support the decision you are clinging to. HOWEVER, what you were clinging to and what the presentments coming out of the shoe will be, are two entirely different events. That is why you need to realize what the shoe is presenting and leave all of your feelings, desires and statistics out of your wagering decision making process. I give the disclaimer IMO.  But my opinion is based upon decades of actual playing experience.

One million true and I know what you mean.
Since we can't use a pc at the tables this statement is of paramount importance.

as.

Again, I'll be back later

as.

I'll be back later on this interesting thread

as.