That's a very interesting topic I'll make my comments later.

as.

Average deviations

In our opinion there are two recipes for not getting a single possibility to consistently win at baccarat:

1) Always betting toward pattern deviations

2) Always betting to stop pattern deviations

Both "approaches" tend not to rely on numbers but about situations; people hoping to get 'limitless' deviations on one part or players thinking that after a kind of deviation things must be balanced in some way at the other one.
Despite that, most players prefer to adopt the approach #1 for the simple reason that a deviation could stop after several wins (actually we need just two wins to be ahead of something) whereas stopping patterns strategy needs a prompt win to be ahead (so hoping to get prompt winning streaks and again we need just two prompt wins to be ahead of something).

Another reason why the #1 approach is preferred is because the game seems to take consistent pattern lines along the course of every shoe dealt, or at least this is what is perceived by players after the results are arranged in different registrations.

Obviously both approaches will lead invariably to the same losing results having an opposite nightmare: stopping patterns happening too soon or prolonging patterns happening too soon.

Most of the times those different methods will get reliable numbers to set up a bet selection upon, think about 1 or 2 gaps, unfortunately hands are so whimsically distributed that many times it's very difficult to choose a method or the other one, yet and generally speaking we should remember that an "overalternating" distribution of certain patterns will be the least likely to happen.

More later

as.

I can write all day long about each one, but for lack of input from all the readers here, I'm going to restrain myself and just outline what reminds me of advantaged play with a little guideline chart that I have for myself.

Most Mistakes/Mistaken

1). Play too long
2). Chasing losses
3). Chasing a singular win
4). When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up
5). When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop
6). Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts
7). Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.
#8).Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau 

Best Defensive & Offensive

1). Keep game relatively short
2). Believing it will all change soon if you are 100% alert
3). Change your responses to be in control, you create what happens with your wagering and no one else does
4). Long term strength is M.M.M. applied and used as a protocol along with your emotions recognized and controlled while applying
5). You do not have to have all the knowledge and experience
6). Gear your mind towards the shoe, not a limited event(s) to occur or reoccur


Discover and align yourself with the various (1) Protocols - (2) Opportunities and (3) Reality of what a shoe presenting itself offers.  (4) Be Careful, (5) Be Conscious and (6) Be 100% Unbiased. Not easy but if you remember those you will give yourself true advantages IMO and experience.

KFB wrote:

It is my opinion this concept(In Bold) is why we casino gamers (investors) should focus on "even-chance" ish type games that do not have card replacement(i.e., Baccarat) vs card-replacement games (i.e., dice and balls type games).

Exactly.

Winning streaks are inferior in economical return than losing streaks so we're forced to exploit the natural baccarat asymmetry making more probable short, moderate or long steady patterns (at either W or L side) than a kind of overalternating distribution less likely to happen at many portions of the same shoe.

By letting go some W or L patterns, IMO, we should find better than random spots to risk our money.
There are infinite ways to dissect a BP production, surely the asymmetry will overwhelm the symmetry: it's up to us to assess (approximate) when asymmetrical patterns will prolong or stop just one step ahead, given that the symmetrical counterpart is slight less likely to happen for long.

More later

as.   

There was a Sheriff who had a game,
and Bingo was the name-o.
B-I-N-G-O
B-I-N-G-O
B-I-N-G-O
FULL OF CASH, FULL OF GOOD TIMES
And Bingo was the name-o.

Alabama sheriff misspent $5 million from county's bingo operations, audit report says.


https://www.al.com/news/2025/10/alabama-sheriff-misspent-5-million-from-countys-bingo-operations-audit-report-says.html

Highest majority of people who desire to gamble can certainly do it in almost every state now.  Why spend the extra for travel coupled with ultra price gouging past comprehensibility?  Another factor is flying.  Even for 100% compliant 'Real ID w/yellow star', it has become additionally burdensome all the way around. 

As far as higher line players, there are so many properties throughout the country offering max table limits all the way to $100k without anything special, no front money, no credit lines, etc., just of the street and buy-in. 

As far as concerts, shows and events-those too are all over the country in casinos nowadays as well.

Sure Vegas has some special things and one of a kinds, but once or twice done, it's all good for the majority IMO. 

As far as the younger Millennials and older GenZ, party/pool thing for 3 seasons a year, they will pay over the top prices I'm sure.  But the gambling isn't there in most cases. 

Link below.

I agree about self inflicted. Vegas not only sat back and watched other casinos(Indian , online cas, sports wagering,..etc) take their market share. They turbo charged their own demise with what u mentioned above.

Much like Walmart once dominated their part of the market. Then sat back with complacency for 7-10years as Amazon grabbed their share with faster service, free shipping, better prices, easier returns, and on and on.

Like many things in life its easier to maintain a lead than play catch up.


*I also find it interesting how the LV casino industry spins each month/quarter/annual report. Headlines such as Vegas tourism is down but Hold from Baccarat is up. Vegas profits down but due to post-covid hesitation by tourists,...etc.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Quote from the link below:

"...Las Vegas saw a 12% decline in visitation in July — the last month for which statistics were released — compared to July 2024, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Hotel occupancy rates also dropped to 66.7% in early July 2025, down nearly 17% from the same period in 2024..."

https://www.casino.org/news/layoffs-at-the-venetian-las-vegas-raise-more-questions/


Continued Success To All,

Real random bac successions (again we have chosen the random.org site to get 416 card infinite distributions) will make isolated symmetrical sequences so frequent and so "reliable in probability" that it's virtually impossible to lose, meaning that the probability of success of A-S-A vs A-S-S of a same pattern is so consistent that we could even think to make a multilayered progressive plan to exploit it.
Not mentioning a kind of Marigny de Grilleau plan dictating to wait for some fictional negative deviations to happen and then betting towards clusters of isolated S once a S pattern shows up.

Unfortunately the real world seems not to fit such random requisites and anyway and no matter the shuffling source once a SS pattern come out (LL if we constantly chase the asymmetry) we have to make some adjustments in order to keep our advantage.

In fact and after having evaluated large samples of shoes, it seems that symmetrical patterns coming out in a row (S-S, etc) at the same shoe will make slight more probable to encounter more S clusters, so diminishing a natural S isolated probability.
In a word, that at a same shoe clustered S-clustered S patterns are getting an equal or slight superior probability to show up than clustered S-isolated S.

But there's another important intricate feature making bac players' minds boggling.

Suppose we're taking care of the times when a clustered S pattern (S-S or S-S-S, etc) will be followed by another S-S or S-S-S, etc pattern (L) as opposed to the times when the same clustered S pattern will be followed by a more natural A pattern (W), then regardless of the shoes played our action will be oriented to get W-W instead of W-L.

The reason is because at an asymmetrical model, quality tend to overwhelm quantity so making more probable a kind of clustered W or L events succession.
Since we aren't interested to chase symmetry and let alone to chase asymmetry when symmetry shows up in clusters, we should just wait the situations where asymmetry comes out after clustered symmetry, then  wagering towards getting such asymmetry clustered.

Summary

Bac successions, providing to be really random, are more naturally taking an asymmetrical route.
Symmetrical patterns come out of course, more often than not by isolated events (if the source is really random).

Once symmetrical patterns show up clustered at the same shoe, the symmetrical isolated feature tends to go down the drain, meaning that the isolated symmetrical propensity is slight lowered.
Sowe're forced to classify the outcome sby a further step.

Thus SS../SS../A patterns tend to concede an exploitable room to SS../SS../AA patterns than at the specular opposite SS../SS../AS situation.

as.

More later on the LL sequence

as.

Hi KFB and thanks for your comments!

You wrote:

I like your 0.75 prob examples as well as your thoughts in above/previous posts about Sym vs Asym setups.
I think u will agree that if one is extremely patient one can occasionally find even more profitable probability examples > 0.75. Though I suspect many gamers would not find it enjoyable if they only wagered  4-5 spots per shoe.

Definitely I agree and that's the point.

Even the worst bac player in the universe choosing 3 or 4 (or 5) spots per shoe arising FROM THE SAME CIRCUMSTANCES, will be able to understand that the derived random walk built from this betting line will get very manageable sd values.
So, maybe, enticing the use of a progression.

The problem, as you sayed, is that almost nobody is going to bet 3, 4 or 5 spots per shoe, let alone to realize that some shoes are not producing the decisive "the same circumstances" factor.

If every baccarat player would discard the "gambling attitude" from the play the game wouldn't exist.

as.