Could we have a serious discussion about luck?

TwoCatSam · February 13, 2013, 05:39:57 PM

Ralph says you have to be lucky.

Let's use our imagination: My bot is playing as I type. When it finishes, there will be a long, long list of numbers it produced. Suppose I am lucky and the L v F system wins. It is because I'm lucky? What if I had played the "Five Strikes" system and it lost? Would I then be unlucky? Same numbers, don't you see? How could I be both lucky and unlucky?

I guess my question is this: In a long trot of numbers, say 5,000, the L v F system goes up and down. (I watch it too much!) Am I lucky when it is up? Am I unlucky when it is down?

My real question is this: What if you rode through the unlucky patches and always quit when you were up and lucky. Could you say you're lucky? Or smart enough to know you're luck will change.

And my last question is this: Is all that is needed to win a large enough bankroll and a robot that stop when it hits the lucky win goal?

Sam

RouletteKEY · February 13, 2013, 05:45:32 PM

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 13, 2013, 05:39:57 PM
Is all that is needed to win a large enough bankroll and a robot that stop when it hits the lucky win goal?

Sam

You need a few things to make your own "luck"
A big bankroll certainly helps...as a small bankroll is certainly a recipe for disaster
A stable bet selection would be nice
And...to go along with that big bankroll...a huge bet spread so you can play thru the bad luck...start low and be able to play a progression that never hits a table limit linked with the big bankroll
hmmmmmm...pretty much makes you sound like the house at that point...and the house always seems pretty lucky

Ralph · February 13, 2013, 07:42:55 PM

In 5000 spins there are 36/37 chance to lose a straight up bet every time. The pay out is 1/36 if we include the stake.

The game has a variance, with to a large extents can be overcome using a large bankroll. There is no way to win if we do not play to overcome the variance against the play. The HE we can never change, so the variance is not the enemy only, you need it on your side to win.

We can not predict which path of the billions of possible, the 5000 spins will take, we have the probability, but it helps not very much at a fixed odds game. If we use a method which can stand some drawdown, and add the luck we will win. We guess the next bet, or we let a method do the guesswork.

A progression will help but increase the risk. It is hard to gain any winnings flat, even that is possible.

For example a labby need 1/3 of the bets winning to go plus, but it can lose a lot.
Martingale can handle an large unbalance like 20% black and 80% red, if it is distributed even rrrrbrrrrb......

A l'Ambert can not handle a large unbalance, but an uneven distribution bbbbbrrrrr, it must near even out.

People playing poker focus at the odds, and try to low the variance, on a fixed odds game with -EV, we must have the
variance on our side. Some claim they can find the entry point to get the variance at the good side. I think it is probably
not possible, It is that I use to call luck, when we find the winning streak and go for a piss, just when the bad streaks arrive.

A method which use to win, will sometimes lose. I think it does matter which method you use, but no one can guarantee you will end up winning. The best we can do is to use money we can risk without harming our life.

It is possible to win, and it is possible we lose, it is gambling.

Billion loudspeaker · February 13, 2013, 11:10:35 PM

Hello

If one system won and one system lost then you would be lucky that both systems didn't lose -- unless you lost money overall.

Then you would be unlucky that both systems didn't win.

TwoCatSam · February 14, 2013, 03:41:57 AM

Quote from: billion loudspeaker on February 13, 2013, 11:10:35 PM
hello

if one system won and one system lost then you would be lucky that both systems didn't lose unless you lost money overall then you would be unlucky that both systems didn't win

That's one way to look at it. Hadn't thought of that.

Welcome, b........

TwoCat

esoito · February 14, 2013, 03:46:34 AM

"Or smart enough to know your luck will change."

JL would probably agree with that !

Isn't that partly what hit'n'run is about? Getting out before the luck changes?

Which further begs the questions:

Does luck flow in cycles?

and

Is luck nothing at all to do with the way numbers are randomly distributed?

(Sorry, 2CS. Not the answers you're seeking, probably. It's just that your good questions raised more questions for me!)

Billion loudspeaker · February 14, 2013, 04:02:11 AM

Luck is a window with a very narrow view. Eventually something worth looking at will come along but the guy next door with the big window probably saw it ages ago.

RouletteKEY · February 14, 2013, 04:25:45 AM

An argument can be made that your "luck" is linked to your level of preparedness at any given point in time. How are some people seemingly long-term lucky while others catch a big hit once in a blue moon (and the one-hit wonders usually give it all back in the next 30 minutes anyways...just a continuing observation of mine)

I would suggest that to at least a certain degree...certainly for the serious players...we build our luck much like we build a structure...start with a strong foundation and hope there's not a tornado or earthquake before we're all "weathered in"

Am I lucky to make $5000 in a night? Not if I deviated from what I know and could have made $10,000. What about if I lose $600? Maybe I was "lucky" I didn't lose $2,000 because I recognized some things and changed course. Just something to think about

Billion loudspeaker · February 14, 2013, 04:41:26 AM

Quote from: RouletteKEY on February 14, 2013, 04:25:45 AM
An argument can be made that your "luck" is linked to your level of preparedness at any given point in time.

An argument can be made for exactly the opposite.

But you make a good point.

I remember a famous golfer being asked about hitting a hole in one and was it luck.

He answered that pro golfers spend hour after hour day after day year after year practising their shots and when they hit a hole in one you say it's luck but that's exactly what they were trying to d.

TwoCatSam · February 14, 2013, 05:47:19 AM

Does luck flow in cycles?

I'm of the opinion it does. Somehow, I think luck is not a good word for it. At least, not for the way I'm thinking.

Luck would be finding a lottery ticket and winning a million. Unlike the golfer who is trying for a hole in one, it's pure luck as he was not trying to find a lottery ticket.

I like synchronization! The numbers BV RNG is producing are in synch with what I'm asking the bot to do. Or they are not. Let us say the system wins 75% of the time. The 25% when it loses are when the numbers are out of synch. No reason for this to happen; it just does.

In the days I've been running these bots on two different computers, it amazes me how the numbers can come so perfectly for ages and then turn on you. So it seems to me I get cycles where the numbers fit the program and cycles where they don't.

The question for me is how long do you stick with the game when the numbers are running against you? When to get out? When to sweat it out?

Sam

Ralph · February 14, 2013, 06:38:27 AM

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 14, 2013, 05:47:19 AM
Does luck flow in cycles?

I'm of the opinion it does. Somehow, I think luck is not a good word for it. At least, not for the way I'm thinking.

Luck would be finding a lottery ticket and winning a million. Unlike the golfer who is trying for a hole in one, it's pure luck as he was not trying to find a lottery ticket.

I like synchronization! The numbers BV RNG is producing are in synch with what I'm asking the bot to do. Or they are not. Let us say the system wins 75% of the time. The 25% when it loses are when the numbers are out of synch. No reason for this to happen; it just does.

In the days I've been running these bots on two different computers, it amazes me how the numbers can come so perfectly for ages and then turn on you. So it seems to me I get cycles where the numbers fit the program and cycles where they don't.

The question for me is how long do you stick with the game when the numbers are running against you? When to get out? When to sweat it out?

Sam

I decide before the amount to risk, and use it to the last penny. The bankroll exist for the loss, if you should be able to play without a losing bet, you have no use for a bankroll, just one chip needed.

Good and bad streaks goes in cycles, but the amplitude is not possible to know. Small swings are more frequent than larger, that's the simple reason we need a bankroll, and it should not be too small.

Even if I put 1000 Euro in the game account, I stick to pennies units. The nature of the progressions on inside makes the stakes more than a cent, it can be up to a few Euros some times.

You can win for weeks and more, and suddenly start lose using the same method.

The compare with the golf player is not that good, every time you try, it is a small chance to hit hole in one, and just do it many, many times it should happen. If you have to pay a fee every time you need a "bankroll".

Compare the hole in one with playing fun mode, try to parlay a straight up three times. It may takes time, but it will in time happen.
It will as well happen in real mode, but there the bankroll is real, and it is not at all sure the bankroll will stand it.

The casino wins due to the large bankroll and the HE. The player wins due to variance at the positive side and many times the strength of the bankroll is needed.

We can very often ride out a downswing, but there are situations we can not effort to go trough.