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[Mr J]

This is PART of the reason why I try and create easy methods >>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor AND http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html

Ken

[esoito]

Sorry, Ken, but in tune with a slide in profits I had this sudden image of sliding down Occam's Razor...

(You'd walk a bit funny for a few weeks afterwards.  )

Anyway, I've often thought that if politicians -- and bureaucrats in particular -- subscribed to 'keeping things simple' we'd all be better off.

The simpler a betting method the less room for confusion in the heat-of-the-moment....yes?...no?

[XXVV]

Ken and Esoito.

Simplicity can be beautiful, but one of my favourite books is Complexity and Contradiction in Architecture by the great US Architect Robert Venturi.  There is real complexity and false complexity. Nature has no false complexity, only human endeavours that can be so.

The essence of beauty and exquisite engineering is removal of the superfluous, and a walk in any park or garden will illustrate the workings of this principle from leaf and flower design to great trees and their cantilever wonders.

I heard an interview this morning with Professor James Bagian,  US Engineer, Surgeon and Astronaut.

He flew with NASA 337 hours in space and told of the wonders of our unaided human eye that can resolve images from 180 miles above the earth to see the grid patterns on airport runways or ship's wakes that can trail 1000 miles  behind a smooth ocean traveler when the sun angles permitted.

He was the guy who developed the procedure, still used today, to reduce motion sickness for astronauts.

His role these days is, amongst other stuff, to tour the world and spread the awareness of human frailty. Yes, we all make mistakes; even he has, although he is a very cool dude. He tells us the growing +18% of GDP of Healthcare in the US and the major importance of preventing human error.

Notorious are the cases of wrong side ( left or right) or  more often, the wrong person in surgery.

What he teaches is the simple principle of all within the operating theatre to introduce themselves on a first name basis to the patient ( this improves patience confidence and improves results by +10% in positive outcomes) and that a patient is asked to state their  full name and date of birth before surgery ( notice not to answer yes or no to questions).

Simple pilot- like check lists  and  layered procedures of cross checking should then eliminate all errors, including the infamous left/ right quandary.

Over the past ten years since introduced these 'simple' measures and acknowledgement of our human frailties, have made huge savings and improvements in patient and medical staff outcomes.

Also regarding risk of spread of a disease, his logical simple two step procedure - #1 limit the spread #2 go to the source. His comments on the contradictory statements and procedures of ill prepared medical organisations in the recent ebola issues showed how confusion can arise from two contradictory statements issued at the same time. Simple resolution. Keep focus and issue one statement only.

Regarding roulette, I increasingly acknowledge and identify areas of weakness in my professional play and work to at least mitigate these. Often errors such as playing while over-tired or without focus, ie distracted/ fragmented attention, can result in disastrous consequences.

This applies to driving, playing chess, and dealing with the complexities of roulette, by staying in focus and keeping simple clarity of intention and discipline.

Under pressure, we need to be well trained and drilled to simple recovery procedures or to exit strategically. The old saying, when you are in a hole - stop digging, is appropriate.

[Mr J]

THE GAMBLER >> I'm a big movie guy, this looks damn good >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5gPQXbFs9Y