### Topic: Philosophy of Prediction  (Read 8725 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2020, 11:58:52 pm »
• Interesting to link this work 2 years ago with my present work overlapping and with a response to Blue Angel and Green Guy (if they are still here).

Healthy scepticism is a fine quality but crossing the line into cynicism never appeals to me, and some used to reply with a negative agenda.
It was funny to hear I had 'Finales' stamped on my lenses as if some sort of curse.

Well the results in the section Private Bet certainly indicate a successful model/ form and the grouping into 9 number sets which is a brilliant neat idea I adapted from the late professional mathematician/ statistician Mark Sarris enables quartering the wheel in approximation and in 2-3-4-5 staking pattern in four play attacks.

I modified this to 6-7 play attacks and also for analysis purposes to flat staking. Also I noted the 'Black Swan' dangers of a failed progression which once sunk one of my professional roulette colleagues in Las Vegas ( \$1M). With flat staking you can still lose, be 'humiliated' (if you choose to react), but you live to fight another day.

It appears that Finales grouping may have a useful mathematical advantage over say groupings based on table or even wheel layouts.

The science of applied mathematics in such areas would be fascinating and I am happy to discuss such research later.

The actual grouping of 1-3 ( and Zero) and say 5-6 ( and 20) is merely a convenience.

The principle of an abstract number 'ending'/ family for being of advantage in clustering is of more interest, rather then being 1-2 or then 3-4.

Results speak for themselves. We shall see how we go through November.

Meanwhile we shall also soon review the method hinted at above from 'my 90's mentor' BC.

Best Wishes to all.

#### Blue_Angel

• Hero Member
• Posts: 864
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2020, 06:38:05 pm »
• Roger that, do you really want to go through this once more??

Rich serves you the yesterday news today...from my perspective, what you call "private bet" is an assortment of random bets, grouped together without any rational reasoning, they might win or lose like any other betting out there.

Or perhaps I'm missing something (?), in such case why don't you enlighten me?
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2020, 11:11:53 pm »
• Lol....
I cannot promise to enlighten, but you never know something I touch upon in the 'randomness' of it all might ignite a spark of resonance....

Thanks for your echo from the past. It is reassuring you are still here and not swept out with the 'dust' in the spring cleaning which Alrelax cheerfully advises he conducted over the past couple of years. I am delighted you have surfaced to provide questions which I welcome. I hope we can have a constructive exchange of ideas.  My intent has been purely to share information and assist others if possible. Also as you will appreciate in explaining to a third party is a wonderful opportunity to clarify and test thoughts. Such is writing  as here, or in discussion or in teaching.

'Private Bet' is merely my own deliberately ironic term for what is my previously 'unpublished' explanation of Cluster Theory applications. I had earlier merrily chatted away with mainly positive results but did not explain just how these were arrived at. Now I hope to have clarified with 'Clusters' in at least 5 'Sets' that this tool is of consistent advantage to a serious player.

The Cluster betting review of my intended total of 30 sessions (22 completed so far) demonstrates a considerable edge to the player over the casino. You can attempt to calculate this if you wish based on my data.

The Bet has a rational internal order and rules of engagement. I will set these out again in a week or so after the tests are complete.

The purpose of the test is really for my own interest and self questioning. I had anticipated a relatively even distribution of positive outcomes from all five sets ( I have explained their definitions and that at least another five could be developed through creativity or ingenuity or also for curiosity).

I was genuinely surprised that so far the 'Finales' ( as earlier defined) have shown by far the best results and I think may have also in the past tests. I am genuinely intrigued as to whether the random mixing of finales outcomes contrasting to say columns where there can be long runs/ outs and such outcomes can thus be more opportune or not. Or is the sample at the present scale still too small. Over the 30 sessions I can relax and review with a suitably sufficient statistical sample.

My programming friends can run millions of spins in testing but I quaintly prefer my personal sampling at this stage.

Results are very consistent and very different from any other methods I have seen or applied.

WF I mention only as an overview tool- it evidently has no permanent edge over the house but has its moments.

Other little applications like ColDoz are merely small sample ideas - with little merit probably.

It is the Cluster Theory work which I believe has real merit. So the 'Private' is now 'Public' and is there to be openly shared. We shall see how we go with the next 8 sessions samples, and I am doing several later today.

Thanks for your question and I hope to be able to explain more fully the overview by end of November.

Kind Regards
R.

#### Blue_Angel

• Hero Member
• Posts: 864
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2020, 10:14:35 am »
• Let's make an assumption, shall we?

Imagine the roulette wheel without the numbers which lie on the surface, in other words just pockets without "labeling-tagging".
What does remain? Empty spaces waiting to be filled by the small white ball.
Numbers are merely reference points, there could be letters, symbols or colors instead, it doesn't really matter because this is not the point.
Would that alter your perception in regards with prediction philosophy?

Table and wheel layouts are an illusion and when you judge a book by its cover you would get lost eventually.
Therefore my humble advise to all of you who are reading this post is to dissolve the fake filters and realize roulette for what it really is.
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2020, 03:08:00 pm »
• Ah thank you for making clear your view at this time Blue Angel.

Realizing 'roulette for what it really is', ie the book without its cover,  in your view, I take it, is a sequence of outcomes where the edge to the house in a single zero game is -2.75%, or worse in practical application by most roulette players.

I disagree and will continue my analysis using a clustering of elements that illustrate an order that is frequently in place below the surface appearance of a string of randomly generated outcomes. You appear not to have understood this principle and I suggest, if you are sufficiently open minded that you study my current series on the 'Private Bet' which explains quite openly the application of this theory of Cluster Analysis.

Roulette is a beautiful game which illustrates through random generation strings of outcomes of numbers which through reasoned analysis demonstrate cycles within cycles, and for the benefit of the player in particular, short cycles which can be de-constructed to show elemental ( four elements A,B,C,D) cluster behaviour conforming to a very reliable set of behaviours and this enables by extension, effective prediction of outcomes well ahead of the negative expectation of conventional interpretation.

It is simple once understood and from your remarks Blue Angel you do not appear to have understood the clear examples provided.

I seem to recall from past remarks over the years there was a school of thought on this and other Forums where some writers preached a rather hopeless cause, in that there was no way Roulette could be beaten.

It appears this is your theme?

Recall the words of Frank Zappa : 'The Mind is like a parachute- not much use if it remains closed.'

#### Blue_Angel

• Hero Member
• Posts: 864
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2020, 10:34:46 pm »
• House edge is an artificial asset based on lesser/unfair payout, this is true assuming that nobody could predict better than average.
By saying unbeatable I assume that you mean for long-term, no, I don't believe it's unbeatable.

I don't frame my mind by pre-constructed associations regarding roulette predictions, why do I have to group 1-2-3 together, just because they share the shame table space...?
Yes, we have to open up our minds and redefine what's possible, but do you really have an open mind or maybe you think you have.

Just remember, when you are betting a street you get paid 12 times instead of 36, and when you are betting 3 numbers you are getting paid 33 net (36-3), in other words, when your betting selection includes from 2 up to 36 numbers means that all of your numbers may lose but only 1 could win you money...an experienced player with basic roulette knowledge should keep this in mind at all times, unless we want to find ourselves overwhelmed by HE.

If a number is red and the other is black,pink...etc I don't care, if one slot is showing 12 and the other pocket 21 I don't jump to the conclusion that this means something about the reversed numbers, (13-31, 6-9), if I see 22 after the 11 I wouldn't bet 33, if after 0 and 10 have been shown I wouldn't bet 20 and 30...
All these examples are the falsehoods, the illusions which keep on deceiving when reality lies a level deeper...
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2020, 05:36:02 pm »
• Yes excellent thoughts from Blue Angel.

I resonate with the reminder that the 'most efficient bet' is a one number target - the trade off is the relative length of time that needs to be applied. Given a reasonable selection based on accumulated data, this can be a very strong method of play, virtually unbeatable given sufficient bank and the ability to progress. Bear in mind 'house limit' also for max bet at that table - ensure you have adequate cover.

Therein lies the risk exposure, but given a suitable state of mind, adequate resources and pleasant surroundings this might be  a winning strategy, playing at appropriate unit value, many happy hours might ensure.

How to arrive at that one target?  A review of sleepers ( risky) ; a review of hot numbers ( when do they peak ) ; the date ; birthday number ; 24 hour clock as a signal clue eg : 14:14 ; zero ( always my anchor); intuition.

Consider also cycles - such as consecutive spins (repeats - the table signals when it is a 'repeat mode') ; Penultimate spin cycles;  18 spin cycles and multiples thereof; grand cycles - daily hot number(s).

Mr Angel may have further inspirational and helpful commentary.

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2020, 06:51:23 am »
• Re-reading the recent post from Blue Angel it would appear he shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the triggering of Finales in his illustration that just because 0 and 10 show that we might bet say 20 or 30, or that if 22 follows 11 then we might target 33. It has nothing to do with such superficial nonsense. Evidently he has not read and understood my comprehensive notes in the thread 'Private Bet', and the derivation of my sets which are of course arbitrary and flexible.

Cluster Theory analysis accepts that 'clusters'  are a tendency for elements of A, B, C, D and that these tend to temporarily group in pairs such as AB so as to form an ABA cluster or ABBABBAAA for example. Clusters extend from 3 elements up to 17 is the largest I have seen.

That is the energy of 'SAME' where there is a blockage or halt.

By contrast other  patterns are CHANGE where we see play being choppy such as ABDACBA and so on.

When clusters break there is an introduction of a new element by way of a trigger.

So ABBAB C and thus D is the target.  Commentary on the make-up of a set is  irrelevant as it is the process of  capturing a new element ( for example D) at the earliest opportunity that brings considerable earning power. I have illustrated that a short run of wins can enable multiple +27 unit wins in quick succession. Statistical evidence proves the likelihood of a win, rather than a loss and that is why my 'prediction' methodology in Cluster Theory enables flat stake earning about +0.7 units per spin per set as demonstrated in the concurrent 30 session sample now completed.

Quite simple note - there is a powerful tendency for the D to appear more likely on the first opportunity in a decay curve of probability.

This work was tested out and verified by professional statistical analysis by myself and my esteemed colleague the late Mark Sarris who was a professional statistician and also a professional businessman, Board member and Director of a major Australian public company in the 1980's in Queensland, Australia. Mark played professional roulette and taught and mentored me for several years. I later extended and modified his strategy to enable flat staking, thus reducing risk exposure and size of bank required. I added several sets.

This thread is concerned with the philosophy of prediction. Blue Angel has shown a few things he would not do. He is pointing out elementary falsehoods. I certainly do not fiddle at superficial levels when I have a proven methodology, a sort of machine which with training can be applied mentally without notes. That is what I do at a busy table.

I have shown and explained and shared a method that is a reliable and winning bet, given many careful conditions and detail notes.

Of course I am open to fresh and interesting ideas. However my work has been honed now for over 35 years, and in its improved form a Cluster Analysis Bet which has generated much income for the past 12 years.

Purpose of this thread is to share and offer this knowledge to others, and to encourage and enable constructive comment and questions where required to be helpful. Others may suggest further refinements and extensions of application.

Any commentary from a third party should have completed due diligence at least, and the tone of response should be respectful and not coming from a direction of adversary. In fact my whole working philosophy is to share and engage with colleagues to enable increasing prosperity and abundance of creativity and earnings.

I look forward to further commentary from Blue Angel that might illustrate his own predictive methodology as he clearly believes 'roulette can be beaten'. I have been doing this for many years now and I have illustrated one way how it is done, We can thank 2020 for that.

Best Wishes to all rouletteers.
R.

#### Blue_Angel

• Hero Member
• Posts: 864
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2020, 11:54:05 am »

• I do understand the "clustering" phenomena but what I do not understand is the grouping association, do your groups contain all available numbers?
Like I've said before, I see no reason why when in my group of "A - B - C - D", that's 4 elements, there are 2 over-performing and 2 under-performing I have to consider it as an overall success when I'm carrying over the unnecessary burden of 2 elements.

In other words, when with 1 foot standing on ice and with the other on fire I cannot claim that my body has an average temperature...
Furthermore, you are restricting the possible combination of active (over-performing) numbers, you should discard none because any number and every possible combination of them are potential winners.

That's the most common mistake, approaching game with a predefined idea about what is going to occur, nobody knows better than the game itself.
So let it guide you, consider it as the transmitter and your brain as the receiver, remove any filters (predefined concepts) you might have and be like "tabula rasa" (blank paper).

Every session, every game is unique, thus let it write its own history and if you are good on interpretation of the presentments then there would be always a light at the end of the tunnel.
Consider the following, every number is a repeat because all of them have been shown up at one point or another, therefore why to call some when all of them are repeaters?

Law Of the Thirds doesn't favor repeaters or sleepers, neither average numbers, probability remains the same for all regardless of appearances within last 37 spins (cycle), what does this fact is telling you?
Most recent numbers sometimes are profitable while other times are not, sleepers sometimes are profitable and some other times are not.

My conclusion is that you should adapt another selection criteria rather than how many times did or din't come this and that.
I do not believe in "hit n run", nor to progressions, money managements...etc
I understand that you may not like what I'm saying but that's just my opinion, you could ignore it if you wish so.

Thank you for providing me the opportunity to express what I perceive as the most proper roulette betting approach.

''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2020, 06:29:55 pm »
• Excellent response Blue Angel. Thank you for giving serious and appropriate consideration to my particular approach to 'prediction' and for expressing your own responsive and very alert methodology which can detect opportunities efficiently and reads the game accurately and freely.

I will not extend this but simply reinforce my point that I see roulette especially as a game of short cycles, ie 5-25 spins in essence, and the Cluster Theory is responsive to various facets of spins sequences, whether a short cluster of numbers on the Wheel layout or the Table layout or in groupings of particular Finales, or for that matter in streaky or choppy colours, dozens or columns. It is automatically by definition seeking out in a statistically efficient manner, where the action is, and takes quick advantage.

For testing I flat stake, but live I can progress appropriately. And experience teaches that a short cluster of wins on one or two chosen sets with say 2 or 3 consecutive wins is sufficient and profit can be taken for the session. Playing too long has many inherent dangers and is best left to the occasional golden situation where modules of wins keep coming and profit is set aside step by step into the trap door pocket or colleague who is with you in a support role. Sometimes that can be handy at high stakes in a private club room. That is what Martin Blakey did in his final years in Melbourne, and I have done occasionally.

Yes I enjoy your respectful tabula rasa approach as indeed it is a delight that every game is unique. Nevertheless I know from extended ( tested) experience where the fruit to be collected is most often ( but not always) found and a strategy is built to locate and collect that
rich outcome. Where it goes off track and into trouble the Recovery procedures automatically halt wasted chasing until on the first or second (or third) showing reveals a way to collect all or part of an earlier loss, or at least mitigate damage. We are aware of Gamblers Fallacy and so have respect for Madame Roulette and in some cases, simply strategically retreat for a later battle. There is much to be said for simplicity and a quick successful exit is to be respected and encouraged.

As one crusty roulette senior pit boss/ manager noted, it is one thing to win at roulette, but another matter to successfully carry the money out the door.

#### Blue_Angel

• Hero Member
• Posts: 864
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2020, 12:41:38 am »

• Whether you are wagering 1\$ or 100\$ the result would remain the same, money don't make decisions but decisions make money.
Likewise, money don't make man but man makes money...the more I'm betting the more I gain, my personal limits are being determined only by boredom and tiredness.

Good luck Rich, it was a pleasure.
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

#### XXVV

• Moderator
• Posts: 1694
• Gender:
• Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
##### Re: Philosophy of Prediction
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 07:34:14 am »