Why bac could be beatable itlr

Started by AsymBacGuy, June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

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AsymBacGuy

Thanks KFB, I'll look forward for your valuable inputs and comments.

KFB is a true grinder (I'm referring to another post), he knows very well that to get a possible edge of any kind we need to suffer, to fight, to wait and wait and wait for favourable circumstances and those are not coming out for magical coincidences but because they are "due" for statistical reasons.

Therefore "more likely patterns" or "average distributions/deviations" or the RTM effect showing up after moderate/strong deviations must be properly evaluated by a fair number of shoes dealt.
Even though the rule dictates we are betting 1 to get 0.9894 (B) or 1 to get 0.9876 (P), we shouldn't forget that such unfair propositions are unevenly distributed and it's about this volatile but constant asymmetry that we should focus our attention at.

More later

as. 
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

AsymBacGuy

Suppose we are just taking care of consecutive doubles, so our trigger will be any fresh double.

Any new double could come out just in two different quality classes:

a) isolated, so not followed by another double

b) clustered, that is followed by another double

Class b) is in turn splitted by b1, b2, b3, etc. clustered patterns in relationship of how many consecutive doubles come out: b1 category means one doubles cluster, b2 two doubles cluster and so on.

Say our strategic plan is set up by generally wagering that a) > b) or that b1) > b2+).
There are no substantial differences about those triggers, mainly because when a given pattern had shown up it'll remain slight more probable than the counterpart to come out in the remaining portion of the shoe.

In our opinion and according to our results, every category tends to get low or very low variance values AND following a kind of clustering effect easy to be ascertained at a) events but more complicated to be grasped at b) situations where the "clustering effect" could mean a higher than average presentation for the reason that b) is 1:3 underdog to show up (that is b class has a general slight more propensity than average to come out again at the same shoe).

Simplyfing, we want to challenge the baccarat model not to provide consecutive doubles and when this thing happens we want to restrict the consecutiveness factor to just 1 (b1).
Everytime the b1 value is surpassed, we are not interested anymore to know the next results, so waiting for the next shoe to be dealt.

Notice that such doubles consecutiveness feature works at every random walk imagined (sub successions) as a mechanical method employed to build successions is affected by the paramount asymmetry anyway.

At baccarat most of the times doubles symmetrical patterns coming out in a row are just accidental results and not natural situations, so when they seem to be "too clustered" we have to put the brakes on and wait for the next shoe.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

Whatswhats

Hi asym, I read your post from years and years from this and other forums.

I want to ask you if possible a thinks about the asym/sym concept of S/A etc..

It's work also on not pure result of B/P but also on W/L ?

Meaning if we simulate a spreadsheet with 10 or more players that bet every hand and get W/L so like a B/P

Can we get an edge or a better way to bet?

Having multiple player that give us in the same shoes multiple S/A stats?