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Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 52370 times)

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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #240 on: December 27, 2020, 09:23:08 pm »
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  • Excellent point, at least in the way I got it.

    Probability can only be precisely ascertained by collecting from large datasets the limiting values of relative frequency of the events we're interested to classify.
    Moreover to prove the complete randomness and to deny possible exploitable defects of the game, such classifications must be totally insensitive to place selection and probability after events tools.

    And fortunately this is not going to happen, for good peace of the many stating that, for example, no matter when we start or stop our betting the probability to get a B double (ties ignored) will be 0.5068 x 0.5068 or that a PPPP pattern probability is totally insensitive of the previous hands quality taken at diverse ways.
    Average values corresponding to math general probabilities itlr do not mean a fkng nothing to me as they are mixing here with there, up with down, that is just considering back to back results.

    Baccarat is the prototype of a dynamic probabilities model, an ever changing proposition that should be investigated by comparing the actual dependent and dynamic probability model with a  coin flip "control" model. Shoe per shoe.

    This help us to define when the asymmetrical feature will make a greater, neutral or lesser impact over certain outcomes than expected, or vice versa when the simple key card distribution will prompt at valuable degrees more likely patterns on the mere prevalent "coin flip" general attitude.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me


    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #241 on: January 03, 2021, 10:08:16 pm »
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  • Gambling results are made of gaps, that is the number of intervals between a given event appearance and the opposing counterpart.
    At baccarat BP probabilities are more or less corresponding to a A/B binomial model.   

    Over a given sample of outcomes, higher is the number of gaps greater will be the probability to detect the apparition of one of both sides.
    Thus it's way more likely to "be right" within a restrict progressive betting range on a 26-hand sequence like this:
    AABABBBABABBAABAAABABBAABA than on a same 26-hand sequence as AAAABBBAABAABBBBABBAAAABBB

    In the former example we got 16 gaps, in the latter the gaps number is 10.

    Actually a simple flat betting procedure dictating to wager the same side happened last will produce (before vig) a -7 units and a +7 units.

    In reality those two different sequences, whether compared to a virtual independent 50/50 model, formed patterns quite different than expected.

    The former sequence is made of 9 singles, 5 doubles and 2 triples (average 50/50 probability being respectively 6.5, 3.25, 1.625)

    The second sequence is made of 2 singles, 3 doubles, 1 triple and 3 streaks superior than 3.
    (the final BBB sequence cannot be registered so far to any class other than a superior pattern than a double).
    Of course the probability to get streaks superior than triples on a 26-hand sample is 0.8125.

    Card speaking and thinking about average values, this means that in the former sequence key cards were more likely equally distributed on both sides and that in the latter sequence a strong key card imbalance went out for "long".

    Many out of "key card" parameters will form the real BP results and all related AB outcomes (think about asymmetrical hand scenarios), but itlr and sure as hell, most gap numbers will be sensitive by the actual dynamic key card distribution prompting a great, average, light or neutral impact over the results.

    Of course there's a natural relationship between gaps and streaks lenght that goes well beyond a mere 50/50 probability or a general whimsical asymmetrical strenght.

    A thing we'll see shortly.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #242 on: January 04, 2021, 12:11:46 am »
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  • Example.

    A strict selected streaks approach could help us to define how things really work at baccarat even though we're considering simple B/P results.
    That is considering mere B/P big road streaks happening at each shoe dealt.

    Hypothesis

    Knowing the ascertained math asymmetrical BP general probability, BP streaks distribution coming from real shuffled shoes are not following everytime dispersion values typical of a still 0.5068/0.4932 probability model.
    Simply put, that the probability to get B or P at different spots taken will be different than the expected unbeatable values, meaning that some spots could be EV+ for the player.
    A possible cause of such an effect should rely upon the finite key card impact acting along any shoe.

    Method (material isn't discussed here for obvious reasons)

    We've set up precise parameters to try to disprove our hypothesis.
    After any streak of given lenght has appeared on any shoe, we wanted to test the "back to back" same streak lenght probability acting along any shoe, a supposedly almost 50/50 probability as B>P, albeit this last being a very volatile probability.
    Therefore, we assumed B=P, assigning a greater value to the actual key card distribution.

    Hence we've classified streaks among the more likely situations happening along any shoe that is restricting them within three different classes: doubles, triples, and 4-hand streaks.

    "Back to back" means that whether no given class appeared so far, no one classification could be made.
    In a word, that if a given streak apparition not happened so far, in our eyes that streak class  wouldn't exist in the shoe we're facing at.
    This help us to reduce the general probability related to the actual probability.

    Any real streak of given lenght up to any 4-hand streak (this value is set up only for practical reasons) will proportionally fight with an equal or superior lenght streak, but it's way more probable than expected that some streaks of given short lenght will get at least a single win on relatively "short" sequences of hands dealt.

    Tomorrow a post about how this simple plan will get the best of it by any means.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline Babu

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #243 on: January 04, 2021, 03:47:11 am »
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  • Have we come to a definitely conclusion yet or is it still in the making. If the answer is yes, it would be nice to see it put in action. All these advance talks have killed many brain cells.

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #244 on: January 05, 2021, 12:28:04 am »
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  • Babu thanks for your reply.
    Yep, there's a lot of confusing stuff in this thread, but there's also a common trait working on.

    Imo, in order to find possible baccarat flaws one of the best approach we could make is to compare real baccarat results with a "control" model derived by a coin flip model. Shoe per shoe.

    We know that bac results are "biased" by either the slight asymmetricity and slight card dependency, but differently to coin flip propositions bac real probabilities are moving around a more confused world as the actual key card distribution will make a major role about the long term outcomes.

    Everybody quite familiar with both baccarat and roulette knows that baccarat streaks tend to be shorter than roulette streaks.
    Indeed at baccarat there's a very very slight propensity to get the opposite result already happened.

    But that's not the point, the important feature to investigate upon is that a part of seemingly same streaks lenght are formed by different quality factors.

    And on most part of the shoes, the "quality factor" cannot last for long as deeply influenced by the asymmetrical nature of the game favoring B and the actual key card distribution.
    Even without considering the real quality nature of hands, itlr back to back hands taken at different pace will form different probability lines.

    That's why itlr common derived roads will form more long clustered doubles on Beb and SR or clustered longer streaks on Cockroach road than Big Road registration.

    For example, you need at least a 3 x sample to get a consecutive ten double sequence at Big Road than at Beb or SR.
    The same concept applies to Cockroach road regarding longer streaks probability.

    That doesn't mean to set up a method about simply mining doubles on Beb and SR or mining long streaks at Cockroach road.

    Anyway, derived roads inventors were real geniuses (probably involuntarily) to set up the foundamentals of a long term winning plan as there are only two Big Road conditions making univocal results on all three derived roads: long singles sequences and long streaks.
    Both quite unlikely.

    Remember, we do not want to win many spots per shoe, let alone one spot per every shoe dealt. Just one.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #245 on: January 10, 2021, 10:50:28 pm »
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  • There are no wrong or right methods to beat (or not) this game itlr, there are only methods that do work.
    Meaning that our method after a decent number of trials had to get profits by flat betting.

    It's quite easy to confuse the steady probability of success with the dynamic long term WL probability typical of baccarat.

    Itlr (and even in most short run situations) probability of success line tends to get the zero value, whereas WL dynamic probability must get an ascending line formed by "infinite" positive or negative short segments where positive segments are either longer or more frequent than the negative conterparts.

    Probability of success is symmetrically placed no matter how deeply we've built our progression plan. No way a strict math progression without a valid bet selection could get the best of it for long. Itlr positive fragments will be equal in lenght and frequency as the negative counterparts, even though we know that B>P. Actually the B>P factor is quite volatile and restricted to rare situations (we well know this).
     
    To beat this game itlr we need to find the unsteady situations where our plan might discard the potential B/P plan variance, exchanging it with the more regular A/B registration made on several steps.
    Card speaking, it's like we are challenging the system to provide univocal math advantaged spots acting for long and at different degrees instead of a natural more likely balanced key card falling.

    Our datasets show that dissecting the shoe into an average number of 4 or 5 key situations will make the highest player's edge. Yet remember that not every shoe is playable.   

    If any bet is insensitive to past decisions, why the hell a given flat betting plan will get a slow but steady positive ascending line?

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #246 on: January 10, 2021, 11:48:45 pm »
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  • As you said, "There are no wrong or right methods to beat (or not) this game itlr, there are only methods that do work".

    Exactly!  So true. 

    I remember talking to a very experienced long-time dealer at a large casino not long ago and he primarily deals Baccarat full-time 6 days a week. So naturally he is dealing the cards a lot more than each of us is playing the game. And he really summed it up and I've said some of it before in the past.

    Which is what wins on one shoe will lose on the very next shoe or what wins in the current shoe will lose consistently for the following shoes. What wins in the first half of the shoe will lose every single time in the second half of the shoe. What wins within 10 hands will lose within the next ten hands and to everybody's surprise will win again for another 10 hands and then will lose again for the subsequent ten hands.

    And then he goes on to talk about dealers.  Somebody has winning sessions with one dealer repetitively that same person will have losing sessions with eventually and blame the dealer for it, all the while other people are winning with the same dealer, that person was losing with.

    And then he went on to casinos, citing how some players swear up and down that they can win at one casino when they cannot win at another casino. Then he went on to days of the week, where players will swear up and down they can win on certain days of the week as well as certain times of the day or the night and lose at other times. He cited a lot more examples but you get the point.

    As you said, "Our datasets show that dissecting the shoe into an average number of 4 or 5 key situations will make the highest player's edge. Yet remember that not every shoe is playable".  And I have posted extensively about Sections.  I have found that proper use of Sections to be an advantage many times. 

    There is most certainly winning and losing times and I've talked about that in my own posts referencing such things as Sections and Plateaus. 

    No matter how a person links the wins and the losses to the numbers, the cards, to people playing, the dealers, the casinos, the time of day or night, the color of his chips, the seat number, or any one of another 20 or 30 factors the bottom line will always be the same. And that is something will be related to wins for short sections of time, but will not consistently hold true shoe after shoe, day after day, month after month, from casino to casino. And that is 100% fact.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 30,300 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #247 on: January 11, 2021, 12:31:29 am »
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  • https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10793.0

    Helping to Define Presentments, Models & Bet Selection Wagering, PART 1

    Helping to Define Presentments, Models & BetSelection Wagering, PART 2

    Models are nice because they are finite.  Simple.  A model is tangible in so many words.  And yes, that model might have worked, but still, there is no way to define how large and how long anyone needs to sustain himself at a gaming table until that model kicks in and hopefully performs in the same length, shape and longevity as it did on the model that was discovered by its author, etc.  And more times than not, if not all, there will be periods of thousands and thousands of hands presented until those models do present themselves for an unknown and in no way guaranteed length of stay, let alone arrival.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 30,300 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #248 on: Yesterday at 11:20:37 pm »
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  • As sayed several times here, we want to play baccarat with you Al, it's very very likely our hyper selected betting plan will correspond to your methodology taken at different degrees.

    Few bac players reached the experience level to ascertain what is worth to bet and what it isn't, that's why we need a strong measurement of our possible edge to verify this game is really beatable. Or not.

    There are general and specific means to lower, nullify or invert the house edge. 

    General means to lower the casino's edge

    Reducing at most our betting rate is not only the best tool to lose less money but to define at most what the fk we're really going to accomplish.
    If it's literally impossible to define a betting model capable to win at a fair coin flip proposition, let's think about what are our probabilities to win at a EV- kind of coin flip model.
    Zero.

    Naturally and to give the casinos the idea we're pure losers we can adopt a spread betting range wagering one standard unit per every hand dealt and betting 3, 4 or 5 x bet in the selected profitable spots.
    They do not care a bit about it, every our bet will be EV-. At their eyes.

    Of course casinos are simultaneously thrilled and worried about those rare maximum limit bets as the actual bet or next bets cannot be more wrong than the math negative edge applied (after comps and/or rebates).
    I mean that no 5k or 20k bet can cross a real -1.06%/-1.24% negative edge as some lost money is given back to the player no matter what.

    Conclusively, bac players that are proportionally losing less money are maximum limit bettors, at
    the same time constituting a real threat over casino's pockets as the edge remains quite small.
    Ask any supervisor casino you want whether he/she would be really enthusiastic about facing an occasional univocal and rare 90K euros bet coming from three different players.
    They should have been happy but actually they didn't. Especially after the outcome.

    Specific means to invert the house edge

    Arrange the cards in the fkng way you want. You can put all same rank cards consecutively or alternatively or whatever you'd like, a most likely distribution or most likely arrangement will come along the way providing previous results are considered by a strict scheme.
    A kind of profitable clustering effect will come out along the way by a stastical sensitivity and specificiity rounding 100%.

    And we need just one clustering step to be ahead.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me