Why bac could be beatable itlr

[Whatswhats]

new pm for you asym! good idea probably

[alrelax]

DON'T FOLLOW THE NORM.....BE DIFFERENT!

Tools for the mind are truly unlimited. Research-learn-absorb-discuss-practice.

No matter what you think, you have to think outside of the 'NORM'.

It is not what a computer can do.
It is not what a product or system can do.
It is not what stats or their results prove or show can or cannot be done.

Because, you are going to be wagering on a limited number of hands per session. 

It is solely dependent upon you to go around the walls that project themselves because of the history that allow them to stand without challenge and strange belief by assuming those are correct and can be easily applied. They cannot, never in any way, shape or form, no matter the twists you believe will make them work with uniformity and consistency.

You cannot with the minimal amount of effort succeed by applying a simple trigger when you see the 'point' coming. It will not work. It never has and never will. Why? Because your effort is without true knowledge and experience. And you need both to make it past the countless hurdles that will present themselves. Once you realize that, you've learned more than the average player playing for years and years.

50% means nothing, zero, zip!  Instant time, no advantage. Carryover to wait, also means nothing. Math stats and obvious happening patterns/trends means nothing past the current hand or two or several that just happened. Don't fall in the same rut most all players do, losing 5-7-9 or more hands to win just a few.

With the game you can certainly get a complete shoe of the obvious. Meaning, 1s, 2s and 3s, combinations of chops and every repeating three or four, cuts to the opposite side. But when you see it and don't wager for it, wait a bit, it's too late. Does not continue. Hence sections/turning points.

"The Perfect Expected Results". What so many fail to realize or do not want to realize is, what is actually happening.  Again, WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. Which is, A Section Vs. Redundancy that results in fallacy.  A downfall that will eat your bank roll with fierce hunger.

The truth is success does not come by accident. It comes from consistent hard work in pursuit of a dream. It comes from passion that drives you and it will also come from consistently and diligently employing some key habits that position you for greatness.  This success comes from an innate desire to win. Gambling is by far the hardest and most toughest profession out there!  Do you know why? Because it involves you controlling your emotions. And it involves controlling your thoughts when you're in the zone and you're down financially. Do you have the patience and skill to keep it together mentally when you're losing so much on the table? Can you walk away and come back the next day, just as strong and win twice the amount? See, when you lose your mind, you lose your money! Big-time. Surely there must be a winning attitude and habitat that winners religiously apply right?  Is there?  I've considered this for a long long time. I've studied the great minds of the best gamblers out there, through books and other writings, because I was sick of losing my hard earned money! I was sick of cursing my luck and blaming others for my losses. The difference between you and Patrick Veitch or anyone else that has made millions from gambling is their state of mind. They think and do things differently, they have that winning attitude! Richness comes from the mind, not from the pockets!

Your success will be an extension of real knowledge and experience into the game of baccarat or whatever else you are playing to win.

My closing is this. Forge ahead and paint in vivid colors, not in black-and-white or in numbers.

[AsymBacGuy]

Maybe you are opening a new world about this game, no jokes.

Yes, getting a clear and focused mind is very important in every field, but successful gamblers made their fortune by exploting an advantage most people do not have.

Now the question specifically related to baccarat is:

Could a player find the situations where B bets will get at least a 51.3% probability to win and/or where P bets will get at least a 50.1% probability to win?
That's the basic undisputable form of advantage that must be measured after collecting several session results.

If no valuable triggers exist (I disagree on that, but that's not the point here) that means that some players show the ability to guess more right than wrong by a value capable to erase and invert the HE.

I'm aware some studies made at mere coin flip propositions guessing have shown that some people got a winning percentage above than 50% and those studies were driven by serious professors evaluating significant statistical data.
We know that when the HE=0 things might naturally take incredible long positive (or negative) lines, so what when we have to guess at a -1.06%/-1.24% negative edge proposition?
Now is a clear focused and prepared mind capable to spot the events where the HE will go down the drain?

I don't have the answer but Alrelax words seem to give us a positive reply, we ought not to forget that he played for real an astounding amount of shoes.
For that matter a couple of high end casinos floormen gave me a similar response when asked if they'd think some players have "more feeling" for the game than the rest.

So could a clear, focused, prepared and experienced mind be able to approximate at best when some spots are better than others?

as.

[AsymBacGuy]

Definitely baccarat is a game of skills, the few who have found out why this game could constantly be beaten know very well this.

Probably those who constantly win have learned to think that the HE is the least problem to face, yet we don't know a single successful player confiding that his/her main profit comes out from wagering the side bets.

Successful players know that a strict mechanical betting applied to every production have zero chance to overcome the HE.

Successful players know that patterns, being positive or negative, could last for "very long" but negative patterns are asymmetrically more harmful than positive ones (for the HE).

Successful players know that the occasional ultra positive patterns will be soon replaced by undetectable patterns that again could last for long.

Successful players know that "less is more", meaning that the probability to be right is inversely proportional to the number of bets placed on the felt.

More later

as. 

[alrelax]

You wrote: "Probably those who constantly win have learned to think that the HE is the least problem to face, yet we don't know a single successful player confiding that his/her main profit comes out from wagering the side bets."

And you are absolutely correct.  But side bets do appear frequently, not rarely in the 5 Treasures game.  I have done and do well with wagering 3-4 sides at a time.  But the main source of winnings will always be the base B/P wager.

[AsymBacGuy]

You wrote: "Probably those who constantly win have learned to think that the HE is the least problem to face, yet we don't know a single successful player confiding that his/her main profit comes out from wagering the side bets."

And you are absolutely correct.  But side bets do appear frequently, not rarely in the 5 Treasures game.  I have done and do well with wagering 3-4 sides at a time.  But the main source of winnings will always be the base B/P wager.

That's the answer I wanted to hear from you after reading your excellent post (#1501). 

oOoOo

Successful players consider any new session as a fresh one, forgetting what happened in the past, for the simple reason that we can't know precisely how the cards are shuffled. Actually we could even consider the scenario that the same or almost the same shoe will distributed again, an heaven if we have won and we keep taking the same strategy but a bad nightmare whether we have seriously lost and continuing to apply a preordered/adapting plan not fitting the previous shoe(s).

Winning is not "hoping for", winning is a complex process dictating what's more likely to happen at the spot we decide to wager (or to fictionally guess).
Fictional right guesses are not wasted opportunities and at the other end fictional wrong guesses are good spots to save our money as we'll expect more negative ROI situations than positive ROI situations.
Moreover the vast part of W/L results are distributed by a clustered fashion so negating a long overalternating scheme.

There are infinite situations to look for, especially if we take into account several sub random walks applied to the original BP sequence.

Suppose we are taking care of the 1/2 vs 3s ranges.
Obviously the 1/2 ranges cannot be zero at any of derived roads (meaning we won't get all 3s streaks along all the shoe at one line, let alone at different random walks) and it's 100% certain that very soon a 1/2 range will come out clustered at one or, more probable, more than one derived road.
On the other end it's particularly likely that at a given derived road, a long 1/2 pattern will stand for long.
If the general probability ratio of 1/2 vs 3 is 3:1 and knowing that the production is asymmetrically shaped, we may infer that most of the times a 3 value will shift to 4 (or more), especially whether one or two 1/2 ranges have formed an exact 3 gap.

3s streaks are moving by the same propensity, so more likely coming out as isolated than clustered, especially by the "clustered" isolated/isolated fashion.
 
Even though some colliding events come out quite often (meaning that opposite BP bets are making favourable opportunities at one side or the another one(s) ), we know that the vast majority of shoes will make more probable fair long 1/2 ranges so making our guess a kind of no brainer shot.

as.

[KungFuBac]

Good win /trip report. I do not see the pics you referenced*.

I like that you use the bonus bet wins to enable a larger base bet(P or B).

"...*The point where I took the picture, I already won 2 Panda 8s, 3 Fortune 7s, 2 three card 9-0s (wagering bankers plus dragon bonus), netting me greater than $8,000.

There were lots of dragon bonuses on both sides as well.  Bankers had several three card 8s with players having 0 or 1.  Both sides had over 25 dragon bonuses paying out between 2:1 and 10:1 consistently. The shoe ended with 5 Fortune 7s and 4 Panda 8s total. ..."


"with 5 Fortune 7s..."
     Im guessing you wager every hand for the Fortune7 to catch that many.

     I think this shoe was a bit of an outlier. Probability for a Fortune7 is (.02254) so approx 1:44 .



Continued Success To All,

[KungFuBac]

Asym quoting from above:

"..."Probably those who constantly win have learned to think that the HE is the least problem to face, yet we don't know a single successful player confiding that his/her main profit comes out from wagering the side bets."

And you are absolutely correct.  But si..."

I travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

     The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
     

Continued Success,

     

[alrelax]

I travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

    The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
   

Continued Success,

   

I agree on a general point.  Especially if one (pro or very experienced) plays consistently and a great amount of shoes. 

However I have developed an allocation of MMM from winnings, a portion of my risk capital and certain winnings go into my wagering ammunition for the side betting.  I have certain parameters I follow, especially in the beginning of shoes. 

My overall 'hit' ratio has been 3 successful out of 4/5 sessions with a considerable amount of side bets hit as shown in my pictures with 3-5 sizable side bets won for the one or two shoes I play in a session.  And, those 3 successful side bet session hits produce way more profits than the 1-2 sessions I failed to cover my side betting investment allocations. 

I do not play anywhere near the amount of shoes you guys are playing these days.  So maybe that is a factor? 

In my MMM I do have rock solid resetting and pos progressive winning protocols, etc., etc.  My 'Sections' and '1/3-1/3-1/3' are my other two advantages serving me extremely well over the long run. 

Thanks, Alrelax

[KungFuBac]

Thx for post.

Yes, I play alot of shoes and set in front of many hands(I just don't wager on many).

*I play with a man that plays similar to Alrelax (I perceive). Though I've never played with or met alrelax. So just from what he posts/my perception(I may be incorrect).

This fellow bac mate doesn't cover ALL the bonus bets at once. However, he wagers on one or two bonus bets once thewy have been triggered,  at the same time, along with a base bet(P or B). He is very disciplined and presses back and forth with winnings from either (bonus bets--base bets) and always bets a little more on whatever just hit(P,B, Panda8,Fortune7,...etc). In other words he tries to use the just-won monies to feed larger wagers.

Like me he feels that if something has been activated it is more probable to hit one more time(Vs an event that has never occurred in this shoe and to bet with the hypothesis it will now present "just for me" at this given moment of time).

**A couple days ago we had both played about 10hours that day and the past 6hours at the same two tables. It had been rough sailing for most of day.

I was up approx 500-600, and he was down 850(just after he had won a few hands in close proximity). We were both very tired and each had about a two hour drive in front of us(about 10pm). He stands up and tells the pit "color coming in", and I say out loud "we've got a quitter". We all laugh along with the pit boss and dealer laughing as they knew we had been there along time. As he stands up the dealer deals a bonus win on the panda 8.
My table mate  then says Ok Im back in and then adds: "I know Im probably going to regret this". In a matter of probably 20moins he hits two bonus bets (25:1, and 50:1), then a Fortune7 at 40:1. He jumps up and says Im gone(and whispers to me "I was down 850/closest to even I had been all day, and now Im up over $6K).

As he is waiting for the pit to verify the color up he then teases me: "You gotta bet the Fortune7". As he knows I seldom bet any bonus bets and only occasionally wager the F7 and typically only when Im at a critical pressed-up size/want to do a partial hedge on what I have in the wager,...etc.

I was glad for him. Sometimes Variance smiles up on us. This guy is a veteran player and has a solid money management system in place. I just don't care for the Variance involved as I have plenty volatility trying to navigate a simple base bet(P or B), lol.

I colored up a short time later still near the same balance.



Continued Success To All,

[alrelax]

Kungfubac wrote in the above post:  "I play with a man that plays similar to Alrelax (I perceive). Though I've never played with or met alrelax. So just from what he posts/my perception(I may be incorrect).

This fellow bac mate doesn't cover ALL the bonus bets at once. However, he wagers on one or two bonus bets once thewy have been triggered,  at the same time, along with a base bet(P or B). He is very disciplined and presses back and forth with winnings from either (bonus bets--base bets) and always bets a little more on whatever just hit(P,B, Panda8,Fortune7,...etc). In other words he tries to use the just-won monies to feed larger wagers."

Here is a shoe from a couple of nights ago, worth almost $20k in conservative side bets wagered, but both sides (P and B side bets) and pretty much consistently.

The following sides the shoe produced:

4th hand was a beautiful 3 card 9-9 Tie for Heavenly 9s, 75:1

4 Panda 8s
3 Fortune 7s
8 3 card 9s for Heavenly 9s
1 3 card 9-9 tie Heavenly 9 75:1
4 3 card 9-0 dragon bonuses 30:1
2 fortune 7 back-to-back
2 panda 8s back-to-back

At least 10 wins by 7 points for dragon bonuses
At least 8 wins by 8 points for dragon bonuses

After hitting the 3 card 9-9 tie on the 4th hand for a Quarter, I allocated that win to side bets.  And boy, did it pay off!

Reference the back to back F7 and the back to back P8s:

Hand 26.  The second back to back F7 was great.  Whole table on bankers.  Couple others were on the first one.  I covered the 2nd one and forced someone else I play regularly with to covered it.  She didn't want to.  I put $50.00 on the rail in front of her and told her, no F7 you are whole.  F7 you give the dealer $1,900 and you keep $100.00 profit.  She laughs, dealer laughs and smiles, floor person says, "Glen with his drama again"!  Okay, players have a 5 and bankers have a total of 6.  She says, "see I told your A**", I look at the dealer and say we need a 6/7 for the players.  4 or 5 people stand and do the 6-7 thing with their hands jumping up and down.  Floor person says, "no drama like Glen".  Dealer flips a 6 for the players.  I stand and yell out, Ace Baby, Ace Baby, Ace Baby!  Dealer's hand is shaking a bit.  Floor person crosses his arms and says, "no friggen way, it ain't going to happen"!  I say, "it ain't over until it's over".  Dealer flips a darn Ace!!!  FORTUNE 7!  I don't think the dealer recognized that the floor person was standing right there.  Dealer yells out, "FLOOR!".  I yell out, dealer going to drop $1,900 for the boys!  Nearby dealers are clapping.  Floor person says, "this kind of drama really only happens when Glen is here".  We all make fun of the lady who made $100.00 on her $50.00 F7 wager telling her she wouldn't even have made that if she didn't listen to me!  Another person shouts out, "your the first to profit only a hundred dollars on a $50.00 F7 wager that won".  It was great!

Hand 25.  Oh yeah I forgot, I snapped a quick pic of the first F7 in the above described back to back fun drama event.  It was a three card 6/7 F7 which was celebrated with several standing doing that 6/7 thing!  In case you are saying I'm bull sh**ing everyone, I got a pic.  It was classic!  I'm posting the pic below the scoreboard picture of this one.  Flopping a 6 of hearts for the players third card and then a 7 of hearts for the bankers.  Love it.  I also won by 6 for a dragon bonus payout of 4:1 for a few hundred.  I took that payout down before sneaking the picture. 

Here's what happened on the back to back P8:

Ok onward with the Panda 8 back to back event to finalize here.

Although P8 came while bank already made 7 repeats in a row, I won all those with two full parlays and pulling down each win.  Easy and non stressful wagering!  Had a few hundred on banker as my basic base wager and maximum on the player Dragon Bonus and P8. Player had a 2 and bankers had a 7 on those first two cards. Player flops a 6. P 8 and the first P8 of the back to back came about. I switched to players with near table Max and of course a P8, F7 and the dragon Bonus with $50 on each side, B and P.

Several people hit the P8 on hand  53. I set up for a heavy players hand and several commented. Couple asked me reference my thoughts about a back to back P8. Told them, I'm done teaching you guys how to play the Sidebets. Lots of laughs.

The lady with the $1,900 forced dealers tip to my right side on the previous back to back F7, copies my wagering. We fist bumped each other for that show of camaraderie.

Through 2 quarters up on empty P8 spaces for the dealer. My favorite cocktail waitress was just passing by as the cards were pulled out and flipped over. Two face cards for players and a 8 and a 2 for the bankers. I tell The dealer pull the players card and do not flip it over. I put $100 off to the side and tell the waitress, if we get a P8 it's yours. If we get a three card 9-0 it's yours also. Told the waitress reach in there and sprinkle some magical dust on top of that card so we get a snowman. Everyone is laughing of course. Good fun. She does and the flop produces a beautiful snowman, 8 card.

Dealer slides the bankers third card out and once again I told her wait a second please. Told the waitress once again, sprinkle more of your magical dust for a monkey so we also can get an 8-0 for a 10:1 dragon bonus win. Waitress does her thing again with several reciting, don't kill that panda with a nine card. Others just calling for a monkey of course.

Dealer flops the card and it was a monkey card! Players win the base bet, a P8 win and a 10:1 dragon bonus win. Fantastic! Comical but serious fun and serious high profiting payouts!

Yell out once again, dealer dropping $1,250 for the boys! I gave the waitress a $200 tip, all smiles from her! This is one for the memory book and it will be cherished. 

I stress again I do not play the game for Sidebets only and expect side bets to always win. And I allocate money from previous wins as well as part of my risk capital for Wagering Sidebets. I do not wager only one side for the side bets, meaning placing side bets only on the B or P side. I usually wager both sides. As well, the dragon bonuses have been very good to me because they will generally pay off enough to cover the other side bets if they lose or nearly what I lost on the other side bets.

Yes, these shoes do not come along every session, but like everything else in bac at the live tables, when it's there, it's there. I love those high paying, quick profitable side bets that pay handsomely!

[AsymBacGuy]

I travel and play with two Bac dealers. I frequently ask them et al dealers: How do the most consistent winner(& losers) play?

     The consensus response is always something to the nature of : don't bet side wagers, money management, and press into an identifiable event. Always reset back to your base bet and do NOT ever chase with a martingale type betting regime.
Two of these dealers dealt in the high-limit rooms in vegas for nine years. They said some of the least-skilled players are also the largest-buyin players. Usually the largest buyins are from players that don't make their full time employment from the tables. Often business owners that can replenish the bankroll from other non-gaming sources.,...etc. So they can bet bonus bets, chase with a martingale,...etc.
     

Continued Success,

Thanks KFB for posting this!

More or less I got similar responses from a couple of floormen working at two different HS rooms.

Very HS players are there to gamble, period. And most of them are totally insensitive of the money lost for the reasons you wrote. 

Surprisingly both think that the game could be beatable by players patiently waiting for the "right" opportunities as infinite coin flip propositions must markedly go in one univocal way, the job is just to wait for such deviations.

About the side bets wagering, I will make a post later.

as.

[AsymBacGuy]

Regular posters here (Alrelax, me, KFB, etc) are well aware that side bets are enormously favoring the house, yet we have learnt that if we expect that sh.i.t happens (strong unexpected negative deviations) in the same way sometimes "jackpots" happen now favoring players for the huge payment involved.

Rarer events tend to come out in clusters (shorter gaps than the expected probability ratio) or not showing up at all (or once) for long periods, another way to consider bac outcomes under the "asymmetrical" factor.

Paradoxically not everytime the HE is the primary tool to look for, maybe it would be better to take care of the possible payement and the relative volatility.
Paradoxically only the side bets are mathematically favoring the players by card counting techniques (mostly by not getting a practical substantial edge over the house).

I've already mentioned the team wagering the naturals 8/9 or 9/8 situation (payement 50:1), obviously starting to bet whenever the naturals/any other hand ratio (34.2%) of any shoe was very low, then adding the current number of 8s/9s live in the deck.
Since the betting usually started after half of the deck was dealt, we know that just one winning situation was able to get a profit no matter what. 

Another side bet particularly present nowadays is the Tiger bet, the situation where Banker wins by a 6 point.
Probability that such event will come out is 5.38%, so we'll expect on average one Tiger event out of nearly 20 hands dealt, so around four times at any 8-deck shoe.
HE at Tiger bet is very huge, 14.33% when B wins with two cards 6 (Small Tiger, payement 22:1) and 15.25% when B wins with three cards 6 (Big Tiger, payment 50:1), aggravated when a general Tiger bet cumulatively takes care of both situations (16.68%, payments are respectively 12:1 and 20:1).

Regardless of the actual shoe conditions (number of 6s, number of 8s/9s) itlr we'll expect a B 6 point distributions shifted towards the P side (B 12.8% and P 14%) and the same is about 7, 8 and 9 points not belonging to naturals (respectively 13.5% vs 14%, 4.2% vs 4.9% and again 4.2% vs 4.9%).
Therefore 6,7,8 and 9 points (no naturals) happening at P side are more likely to show up than 6,7,8,9 points (no naturals) at B side.
On the other end, many 6- 0 value card situations are symmetrically falling at B side so it's just an educated guess about how many same/superior points P side will get, the remaining situations (B6-P drawing) are favorite to win.       

About F-7 (payment 40:1) we know they are quite unlikely to happen, mostly coming out, on average, just once per every shoe played.

Then Dragon bonus being nearly 4 times more burdened by the HE at B side than at P side.

Ties should be never ever wagered, too tiny payed and too whimsically distributed.

I don't know about other side bets, maybe Alrelax could be of some help here.

0=0=0

In our opinion side bets should never be considered as the main way to collect profits (or to recoup a previous deficit) but sometimes they could be a viable tool to enlarge at most an actual positive session as back to back or short gapped side bets happenings MUST come out sooner or later.

as.

[AsymBacGuy]

Back to my original topic.

Giving a 0.75% probability to win and assigning W as a winning pattern and L as a losing pattern we'll get infinite W/L successions to take care of.
The least likely succession to face will be a perfect WWWLWWWLWWWL.. succession, meaning that a strong overalternating mood had taken place.

On the other end, since W is 0.75:1, a good rule of thumb is to wager toward getting W as clustered at least once (WW).
L side moves around the same concept, being more isolated (WLW) than clustered (WLL) but since the game is volatile and affected by just one hand whimsically going toward one side than another, we do not want to chase the "end" of any L cluster.

Yet, "long" isolated W situations are way more probable to be intertwined by isolated Ls, so in essence the only real losing sequence is anything like as WLLWLL...

Notice that by falsifying the best randomness definition ever made in the history of probability field (RVM) and according to MvS studies, bac successions are affected by a kind of unrandomness (or instrinsic defects of a finite dependent bac card distributions) capable to get a full value of what is more likely to happen (W clusters and/or L isolated situations) as opposed to what could virtually happen at a 0.5068/0.4932 dynamically proposition.

as.