If you follow the presentments without adding or taking away from it and without compromising and without twisting it or turning it around to fit what you want to have or you desire, you would get it correct every time. But as humans with emotions and egos we cannot do that.
There are numerous things to look for to collaborate what is happening.
The shoe stands alone, it is not part of your desire or anyone else's. When you put yourself in the frame of mind that the shoe will present such and such, that is the start of your journey down the wrong path.
You just cannot bet XYZ even though XYZ has or has not come out within so many hands or something else was just presented. They both do not have anything to do with each other the majority of the times. The minority of the times that they do, it is a coincidence or not does not matter and then when you see that you changed the way that you thought and that is why you turn down the wrong path the majority of the times.
The same way you might get it correct by wagering a scheduled trigger, there will be a greater amount of times by far you will get it wrong by wagering that same way. If you try to compensate for your wrong decisions by money management, either you will just compound your losses or you will change your frame of mind and not bet on the opportunity that will present itself in a short order time, when you would have had it correct anyway.