Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials

[Albalaha]

I thought of never writing back on any of the forums but finally decided to give my inputs on the most controversial topic on gambling. Can there be a way to beat the game? Answer is Yes but it is subject to certain issues:
1. House edge should not be excessive. Baccarat is the best bet, in my humble opinion. Even European roulette/French roulette doable.

2. Betselection doesn't matter, be it static or dynamic, all has the same yield and expectancy in the long run as provided by probabilities they carry and the house edge they bear.

3. Bet limit on EC bet should be atleast 1-100. Although one seldom need to bet over 10 units.

4. A net win could be achieved even in the very first bet but we should always expect to win in the long run and play accordingly. In an EC bet, as per my own estimates and researches, even the worst of the worst could be overcome and a net win could be achieved within 15,000 trials.

5. Stay away from all foolish money managements available for centuries. They are meant to handle only one type of variance. Remember, increasing or decreasing bet alone doesn't make you winner. There are more to it to become an HG.

6. Stop loss doesn't help. One should rather be able to totally forget abnormal losses and should understand that they are part and parcel of the game.

7. Increasing bet from 1 to 2 is 100% increase in the bet while 2 to 3 is only 50% and so on even after increasing bet we keep losing the efficacy needed. This should be kept in mind and answered correctly.

More later..............

[KungFuBac]

Thx Albalaha

re: #6 : "Stop Loss doesn't Help..."

Do you suggest a Stop Win? (e.g., % of BI, % of bankroll, % of monies or #bets wagered that session...etc, none of the above?)
 

Looking forward to part 2

[Albalaha]

There is nothing like Stop loss or Stop win. You can call your day at any moment you feel like.
Actually, unless you have a set formula to play in the long run, you will always rely upon luck and will think of "hit and run" type failed ideas. All these failed concepts evolved due to the uncertainty and lack of a vision for the long run. Even heard of a money management approach for long run? No.

[alrelax]

Ref #6: 

You are exactly right and I said it many times, stop loss does not help at all and all it does is prematurely stop people from winning if they are going to win. You never know when the point is that you really encounter the best section of your session or not. But you're buyin has to be risk capital rather than closely watched and stressed upon. 

[Albalaha]

Holy Grail of Gambling: Essentials, Part 2:

#8. Play in cycles. One cycle completes when you get a Win. Remember, it might not be a net win though. For example, LLLLLW, here a W after 5 successive losses ends the cycle.

#9. In any cycle, first three bets are the most crucial. You may either pause your bets for the cycle to end with a W or bet minimum possible there.

#10. Do not ever try to push your bets to recover losses due to one or more successive bad cycles like LLLLLLLLLLLW or LLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLW . Play ahead as if nothing of this sort happened to you.

# 11. Free up your self from all the fallacies like after a very bad run, you will get a compensatory set of wins.

#12. There is nothing like patterns that you can exploit. Gizmotron preached this fallacy for long. Every pattern that you see running so far, could reverse while you start to bet in favour of it or could carry further if you go against that. Both are randomly equally likely.

More later.....

[KungFuBac]

Thx Albalaha

3. Bet limit on EC bet should be atleast 1-100. Although one seldom need to bet over 10 units.

My perception is that you work diligently to slow the acceleration of wager size(not how to increase wager size as many approaches seem to pursue). I hope your fine thread continues to shed some light on this issue.

I've designed a few methods of what I call periodic or perpetual type wagering methodologies that may or may not be similar to your examples.
I found the most difficult problem was(is--as im still working on it) how to handle the ratio of wager size change to buyin change. Though one wouldn't think at first glance that a continuous micro increase to the wager could compound so rapidly--I found that keeping this ratio optimally sized was the key to buyin survival(Easier said then done).

In other words: If wager grows too fast then buyin can get wiped out within fewer decisions. If wager grows too slow then buyin doesn't grow at a sufficient rate to handle future volatility...etc.

I've attempted at bac though mostly at craps utilizing a keyhole approach as I wagered only one spot and one spot only(DC3 wager), so for example after a comeout(dp), it was sent out on the fourth(dc3) spot. My main reason for choosing craps was the option for a $1 increment change.  One approach that has endured /performed reasonably well was starting at $25 and increasing/decreasing $1 at certain stages, triggers,as a f(x) of SD, # of decisions,....etc. However, regardless of trigger(s) the main issue kept returning: wager sizing: how to slow down growth yet continue to grow, be at the highest level when a pos run presented,...etc.

I will elaborate  more later on as I don't want to sidetrack your thread/ Im sure I will have additional questions as we move further into your post.

All the best,

[Albalaha]

Kungfubac,
You might be new to forum world(or might be there with some other name) but are a sensible looking person. Increasing or decreasing bet alone is not a way to win. Increase and decrease should be logical and able to sustain variance till its virtual limits. Every known progression lacks in that side and becomes useless.
       To make a difference, we need to be innovative and keep all fallacies aside.
      You might approach me via email discussing the weaknesses and strengths of your strategy, only if you feel like. I might be of some help.
More later.