Author Topic: Trigger based betting: pros and cons  (Read 230 times)

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Offline Albalaha

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Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« on: April 07, 2021, 04:58:31 am »
How many of you go for a trigger to start bet? Do you think it useful/helpful?
In my humble opinion and observation, it doesn't change probability further but it could be utilized to ward off the worst possible
probabilities and if we take multiple triggers together and their net total impact, I found it helpful logically and probability wise too. We should not expect any in built advantage with any trigger or flat bet win with it.

       Let me illustrate as to how I perceive it can be used.
Say, I m looking for a trigger of 1SD or worse to cool off and then I bet for the same length, expecting better.
LLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLW , 15 LOSSES AND ONLY 3 WINS.
If I bet upto 18 more decisions hereafter, I might get a similar stretch ahead but very few times. Mostly, I will get something like 9:9 or 7:11 or 8:10 win:loss ratio. Getting LLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLWLW is not impossible but definitely rare.

Such triggers might not be good for playing for +1 but excellent for my millionaire's plan where I want to play for 80-90% winning sessions, with 50-100 units' gain or loss.

What do you say on this?
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2021, 05:47:17 pm »
Hi Albalaha

How many of you go for a trigger to start bet?

     I do though I don't view my trigger(s) as being causal to the outcomes. One thing(trigger) I generally do when I sit down at a new shoe and immediately post-cut. I like to wait for the outcomes to hit the other side/back to orig outcome (as a minimum wait), prior to placing my first wager. E.G., PPBP, with the third P being a trigger to consider placing a wager going forward.

Nothing scientific or projective about it. Simply a way as to not allow the cut to dictate the first few outcomes at a short-term stage where results are random and more difficult to discern(at least for me). Mostly due to the simple fact we don't have any intel at that point. Of course I would be first to agree that most anything we do as an attempt to tame undesirable variance will also dilute the desirable variance,...etc.


Do you think it useful/helpful?

     My perception is Yes, as it helps with my above objective. Though may or may not increase my hit/miss ratio.
IMO anything we do to reduce number of hands wagered at random is beneficial. At least for me, I don't have any perceived +ev strategies that would help on the first hand following the cut(especially in cas that don't show the burn cards). If required to wager that first post-cut hand I might be slightly more inclined to put it on P.


In my humble opinion and observation, it doesn't change probability further but it could be utilized to ward off the worst possible probabilities and if we take multiple triggers together and their net total impact, I found it helpful logically and probability wise too. We should not expect any in built advantage with any trigger or flat bet win with it.

     I agree in that most triggers won't change probability. However, they could possibly make us enter a wager when a W is perceived to be more probable. Also, as u mention above it could help ward off(side step) a negative cluster of outcomes, thus , potentially preserving bullets until we are getting the best of it.

     re: Triggers, Im always reminded that a perceived beneficial trigger for my side of the wager has just created the exact opposite perception for approx 50% of my table mates(and vice versa).

Albalaha--what  are a couple of your favorite triggers to sidestep losing clusters?


Thx/Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2021, 04:47:19 am »
Quote
Albalaha--what  are a couple of your favorite triggers to sidestep losing clusters?

I use extreme variance management to ward off the worst possible like pausing betting after third consecutive loss and resuming after getting a WLW or WW only. If pausing isn't possible, I bet least possible.

Before using any trigger two things must be understood:
1. Waiting for a trigger, you might miss the best times to play;
2. A trigger could make you wait too long, yet might not yield something as we can't predict anything based upon past results.

Trigger and Extreme Variance management, my way, could complement each other.[/size]
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2021, 03:37:52 pm »
Thx Albalaha

re: "I use extreme variance management to ward off the worst possible..."
   
     Do you also ward off the best possible to the exact same level??
Lets say (e.g., -4SD to +4SD),  OR  are u more likely to do a predetermined setup such as : (-4SD to +2SD, ....etc )  ??  Other?

thx,kfb

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #4 on: Yesterday at 04:38:32 am »
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Do you also ward off the best possible to the exact same level??
Lets say (e.g., -4SD to +4SD),  OR  are u more likely to do a predetermined setup such as : (-4SD to +2SD, ....etc )  ??  Other?

It all depends upon the trigger. it is pretty configurable. Even 0.5SD could be a trigger.
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #5 on: Yesterday at 04:07:31 pm »
Hi Albalaha
As always thx for your timely replies.

I know you have spent years studying live bac data. My questions:

A) Per lets say a <=10,000 decision random sample  what is largest extreme (-) variance u have seen with live table outcomes (e.g., -5.2SD, -4.8, -5.9,..etc)? Choose either side P or B for our discussion.

B) ""   "" (+)Variance u have seen (e.g., +5.2sd,...etc)?

C) Do you typically see both extremes within the same sample approach similar levels(e.g., one side lets say reaches an apex of  -5.0sd and the other side  lets say had a maximum spread +4.9sd )????

     "OR"  do you more often see one side take off in the lead and the other never really draw even after the first couple thousand decisions?
   



Many Thanks,
 
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #6 on: Today at 06:52:49 am »
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(+)Variance u have seen (e.g., +5.2sd,...etc)?

I have analyzed over 20 millions roulette data and over 1 million hands of baccarat of both simulated as well as real data. I compiled many of the extremes of baccarat here : https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/worst-stretches-in-baccarat.15221/
but don't forget that whatever we have seen is not the limit, it can always break that. My strategy can bear even -6 SD playing all over( even without any pause or even when my extreme variance management doesn't help). I would rather love to face -6SD. It would be an experience and will rather strengthen me.
           In a normal EC session, I do not expect more than -1.5SD though.
 Recently, someone approached me via email asking for my MM that beats 35/165 case. I replied there is no such MM that can do this, in my little knowledge. Neither 35/165 case has been witnessed yet. However, if I play with my MM, I can sustain even 35/165 and might win a net profit thereafter with average sessions later.
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