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[alrelax]

Before you can truly win, you must be able to compound positive results at the table and manage those results into profits. It goes a little bit further beyond winning a few hands or a bunch of hands, but how you schedule and plan what you are going to do with your win money while you are winning. And that is not easy because of the psychological affects winning has on all of us. 

How much-how long-decision making skill or hot lucky streaks-following others winning, and so many more will come in to play. Wins are wins, no matter how you arrived at your win. Money from the dealers rack into your buy-in stack. Once it hits your stack, it is yours, of course. But, you have to give yourself positive profits you can apply a concrete Money Management Method (MMM) to.

We all have different goals and beliefs at the table. No matter how you win, when you win, you must hold portions of your wins and be able to get psychological and visual physical positiveness out of your wins. That will give you all good advantage over most anything else.

I have found that the highest majority of all baccarat players will wager more when they are losing than when they are winning. Cutting a long and complex explanation of the above statement, you must engage in a reversal of exactly that. Wagering smaller and then bigger. However the 'bigger' must not be your buy-in or stacked money. I will attempt to explain this as simple as I can.

You must also understand and be able to separate decision making for your bets and how to handle your winning wagers to give you advantaged winning.

AT A MINIMUM, BUT NOT OPTIMIZED:
* Holding portions of your win amounts religiously.
* Able to hold partial wins and use partial wins.
* Applying protocol.

THE ABSOLUTE OPTIMAL:
* Using only your winnings not your buy-in funds at some point.
* Applying protocol.

Use Winnings With Protocol:  Mine are, winning in excess of my buy-in gets divided up into 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd amounts. 1/3rd back into my buy-in stack, 1/3rd locked up for anything but gaming and 1/3rd into reserve. When certain amounts are won, those amounts are further divided up. I am governed by the losses of winnings, or simply in other words, not wining after winning according to protocol. 

So I am governed by the losses of the wins, rather than always relying on my buy-in and stacked chips with really no protocols. Thus I refrain from believing my wins won't stop or really getting 'sucked in' and giving it all back and losing my buy-in as well.

I am writing this from years (decades) of brick and mortar casino experience. I constantly witness experienced Players, friends and those that have extremely great BetSelection and Decision ability and other positive traits.  However most all have little or no MMM and that is what is killing their ability to win more sessions by far than what they lose.

Explaining what I mean by wagering smaller than bigger and how to handle your winning wagers to give you advantaged winning.  A realistic example and on the side of seriousness is a $180 base wager. Instead of a flat betting, pull down, add a partial unit of win or two and then wager again, etc., etc., I have found a solid and quickly aggressive strategy would be the following:

$180 Base wager.  If won, move to second;
$360 Second wager.  If won, move to third;
$720 Third wager.  If won, STOP. 

$1,440  $180 Back into buy-in.  $1,260 play money.

Or Another Example Would Be:

$300 Base wager.  If won, move to second;
$600 Second wager.  If won, move to third;
$1,200 Third wager.  If won, STOP. 

$2,400  $300 Back into buy-in.  $2,100 play money.

NOTE:  Replenish buy-in with whatever drawdown might have occurred prior to the, 'STOP'.

(Below I will post a couple of pictures of actual chip stacks of mine at the table and maybe you can imagine the psychological and visual physical advantages they give me).  I separate my chips, I know why and how I earned them as well the representation of drawdown or win, and the amounts by protocol with a quick glance. 

Back To Protocol.  You get the idea. Two wins past your base wager, with your risk money is not far-fetched and dreaming at all. I've done quite well at it and although I do not keep session by session records, I know I am up overall since I started to employ that several years back. And it helps me extremely well over just grinding it down or betting blindly and not having any outcome planned for the win money except to win more. Again you should get the idea. 

The protocol you must stick to, is that of the base wager, your first wager. If you lose, you are losing the wager from your buy-in amount. Yes that is your risk money, at least it is mine. If you win, you are governed by your win and you are allowing your winnings to earn you more winnings and within a short period of time you will apply your MMM to the wins by strict protocol.  Within my protocol is, that of my further win and generally I am governed by losing a buy-in worth of winnings, is my tap on the shoulder to wait or stop the session.

The reason I choose to wager and draw down on my buy-in, is because it gives me a greater alertness to wagering as well as a greater consciousness to make fewer and quicker wagers especially when winning. I have found that reserving win money and only increasing a small percentage of my base wager, works against me from my goal of base wager +2 additional wins before reverting back to my base wager.

The hardest, the most difficult and the greatest notorious killer of most all baccarat players as I said, is their inability to apply a solid concrete MMM to their winnings. But also, their inability to understand a flat betting grind and its adverse affect on the player. As well, the player winning a few and believing in the continuation of a hot streak or skilled decision making trend, etc., and then a few losses occur with the players quick attempt to recover what they just so foolishly gave back.

Sure it's hard not to continuously wager larger and larger bets, but with my way I am risking minimal base wagers and reaching out for three wins, two after a base win and then scaling back to my minimal base risk again. No matter if I am drawing down on my buy-in or if I am using my base wager from sole winnings.

Baccarat is probably the easiest game in the casino to win as well as lose. But, if you win you better learn how to handle it and what advantage you can easily employ to hold it.  Be Smarter-Be Better. Realize the power of winning-realize the power that losing has over most everyone as well. If you really do, you will become a better player, a more successful player and much happier. I promise you that.

[alrelax]

The felt is reality and unlike sitting behind a computer or tablet or phone and playing free practice games with unlimited fake chips and no investment, it is a totally different world in a casino.  (Kind of liken it to sitting on a motorcycle in a artificial intelligence arcade game flying through the air doing a couple hundred miles an hour and being on a real motorcycle on the highway).

The two pictures below represent a little bit of what I'm referring to and trying to keep it simple, what I found to give me great advantage winning. 

The first picture represents $1,500 in black chips to my right.  2 stacks of $700 in green chips. And another $225 in green and $50 in red.  I have $200 on the felt on bankers, $30 on dragon bonus and $20 of Fortune 7.

The green chips would represent my buy-in I believe it was 1,400.  I am actively wagering with the rest of the green and red on the table and the felt.  The black is colored up winnings. 

The second picture represents black and purple on the rail, buy-in and winnings, several times my buy-in.  The $600+ on the felt is my 2nd wager, because I started at $300 (first wager of a series of 3) when I took the picture.  I happened to wager $100 on the tie, and I very seldom wager the tie, but did and won.  (You will note the dealers rack is just about cleaned out, but the rack became just about whole again before they called for a fill.  As sadly, most all gave back all their winnings.

[KungFuBac]

Great thread by alrelax: Reality Advantaged Winning.

Several great points that are so critical for long-term success at Bac(or any cas game).

It is my opinion most daily and lifetime winners(Net+ $) all possess similar traits. Most of these traits cannot be taught and must be learned.

I will make a few comments on some of the key points. More comments on additional points at a later time.  I think most of us on this forum will embrace/agree with the majority of my thoughts below. I welcome counter thoughts and ideas.


A. "...Before you can truly win, you must be able to compound positive results at the table and manage those results into profits..."

B. "...Wins are wins, no matter how you arrived at your win. Money from the dealers rack into your buy-in stack. Once it hits your stack, it is yours, of course. But, you have to give yourself positive profits you can apply a concrete Money Management Method (MMM) to.
  .."

C."...AT A MINIMUM, BUT NOT OPTIMIZED:
* Holding portions of your win amounts religiously.
* Able to hold partial wins and use partial wins.
* Applying protocol. ..."

    It is my belief one of the greatest tools we have as casino gamers(Cas Investors) is the opportunity to compound. Compounding that current winning wager and also compounding a small % through our buyin/bankroll. Wins should be treated just as a win in the stock market or any other investment vehicle. I like to think of compounding as similar to vibrations or like tides/ripples across water in the ocean or on a pond. Sometimes that little ripple can have a very long lifespan.

A strict MMM is so crucial as wins need to vibrate slightly through that current buyin, along with a slight vibration through our overall bankroll. This % added to our buyin can be very small (maybe even just 1-3% of buyin). The more one games the more often this tiny % can compound. Reminder banks only give us 4.5--5.25% CDs for a whole year of holding our money. Let that tiny compound% start rolling and before long it will be like an exponential snowball rolling(compounding) down a mountain side.

Though most importantly we need to parse out a certain % of ALL wins into an intrinsic item (e.g., gold,silver, a new watch, car tires, gun, ..etc (or other investment vehicle) that "never-ever-never" gets run through the casino again.

The reason I prefer only a tiny % added back into THAT buyin is we must also be willing to risk that whole buyin to get a win. That means we must also accept the fact we will eventually bust THAT buyin. But one must still be wiling to risk the whole buyin, IMO.
Otherwise it would be like sending your stock broker 100K and only buying one stock with $1k/not invest the other $99K. Our ROI would be miniscule regardless of how successful our ROI on that one stock.

I see a lot of skilled players that lose because of weak betsizing/MMM, and not because of weak bet selection or poor self control.

I believe all of ones gameplan should start with knowing ones hit rate(advantage or lack of), and then proper bet sizing, buyin, and bankroll. Everything must be a "fit" for that specific gamers objective.


D."...Use Winnings With Protocol:  Mine are, winning in excess of my buy-in gets divided up into 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd amounts. 1/3rd back into my buy-in stack, 1/3rd locked up for anything but gaming and 1/3rd into reserve. When certain amounts are won, those amounts are further divided up. I am governed by the losses of winnings, or simply in other words, not wining after winning according to protocol. ..."

    Exactly /so very important. I do a similar approach with slightly different %.

We must not require our skillset/bankroll to "rewin" our wins.


More later,

[alrelax]

Adding Further Advantaged Skills and Understanding.

Being a better and more profitable player is what I am about, how I think, how I play and what I generally write about.

Reality and instant reality is what is Paramount.  PERIOD.

MEAN AND VICIOUS CYCLES

Do not believe you are right or wrong if you are winning hands. You are simply winning. You must not take a side. Think about that statement for a minute.

Picking sides for reasons/reasoning is detrimental to your wagering 100%!

Because when a player consciously is thinking he was right on a winning hand, he begins to wager for what he just won and then enters a mean and vicious cycle once he loses a repetitive wager.

Something else I have discovered with physical visualization after years of play.  Flat betting and negative progressions will lead you to loss of bank rolls.  PERIOD. 

5 THINGS

The ability to identify situations/events presented by a shoe.

Understand hands change value with no rhythm, rhyme or reason, as well as possibly follow rhythm, rhyme and reason.  Understand that and grind that into your trend of thought.

One must take advantage when the shoe is presenting hands that fit into anything that can be deciphered by the player.  The key is anything and that includes things that you generally do not believe in or subscribe to, because those things win as well.

One must leave a winner if he has won anything sizable by employing a concrete Money Management Method without deviation.  A MMM that will allow the player to continue playing if he is winning and force him to end the session when he loses a certain percentage of the win.  (Don't kid yourself, that is one of the hardest things to actually do at a baccarat table!)

One must never say, I'll win it back tomorrow or next session or anything following that trend of thought.

STOP THE COMPETITION YOU ARE CAUSING

With others.

With the dealer.

With yourself.

Following advice you received from others regarding  systems or mathematical and statistical writers.  Reason being, you are only sitting down to play 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 shoes, etc., not millions of hands where they gathered their reasoning from.  Anything and everything can and probably will happen in the short time of your session. 

If you have advantaged skills you will be able to push yourself into a bragging mode. An alpha mode-a #1 player stance that wins more than he loses.

[alrelax]

JUST ONE MORE

Reality Play to the Max.

Something I have pondered for quite a while and discussed with several people and I will tell you, I've done quite well with it. Let me explain.

I favor a press early and stay/remain consistently until whatever it is falls off. I calculate winning the 'initial risk wager' or 'initial risk plus win one time', then pull down all the repeating wins. There might be a second full parlay but that depends on what is happening.

I might increase later in the sequence/event if not falling off with a partial win, after already winning several times.

It is not a system. I engage in playing what is being presented, unlike so many people who play and wager what they are desiring to form a certain something.

Just One More has served me very well, with higher than a 50% hit/win rate. Just One More is simple, it is an out of the norm break in presentations occurring. It can be a deviation either way.

Just One More is something different and against the current flow of what is happening within the Section. And I lean towards Just One More because I call it, a quick hit and stay, type of wagering.

As we all are aware, equalization happens extremely frequently within the game of Baccarat. And I will have to say, equalization or darn close to it, happens more often than not in most shoes. Just One More might be the cause of the fourth coming equalization or it might be the equalization event itself. You have to seriously sit and ponder what I just said in this paragraph!

Hence, IMO-there are multiple reasons Just One More happens of course. But I am not saying Just One More with subsequent IAR's, is a more likely flow to happen, because it is not. But Just One Mores after a substantial section or even two sections of 1s-2s-3s, that has maintained no Just One Mores (past a 3 IAR) is something I really love to see and start wagering heavy on.

REMEMBER:  Trends are likely to continue and trends are likely to break. Both happen. Both happen to what the shoe is set to present, not to what you desire or believe in. 

Some examples of Just One More are posted below.

[KungFuBac]

alrelax in post#3 above:

"...Something else I have discovered with physical visualization after years of play.  Flat betting and negative progressions will lead you to loss of bank rolls.  PERIOD. ..."

    I am in agreement re: Flat betting and negative progressions.

I play with a couple players that win with negative progressions. However, they must rely on a 10K risk per day/it takes many winning sessions to approach the 10K risk. They seldom win more than 3-5units net and frequently jeopardize their buyin.

I do not notice any daily players winning consistently with Flat betting. Though, I don't watch everyone and don't ask them if they are net+ or net-,....etc. So possible I guess.

I do see some winning more days than not with Flat betting. They appear to risk a small amount for a 1-2 unit win. For example, one player risks 13 units($1300) per day/ his goal is >=1-2units. It is my opinion the main attribute of his method is the limited risk(i.e., 13units). He is very experienced and doesn't feel a need to bet very often. So I do think it can be done but my perception is that if one can put together >=3iar win streaks one will be more profitable Net+ by utilizing a reasonable PosProgression.
To each their own I guess.


An quick example of why I prefer a pos progression almost 100% of the time. Yesterday(Sat) I went to the casino as I had some free play and gifts that were (use it or lose it).

I keep meticulous records and my hit rate for the first session across two shoes: 13W,10L. My net win was 7.2units.
Another session across two shoes was 8W, 10L. My net win was 4.7 units. Neither session was eventful really. No long win streaks for me. Mostly just routine shoes with typical swaying back/forth.
My buyin was never in jeopardy. My point is that if I had FLAT bet my overall net win would have been (+1unit).

My advocacy for a reasonable positive progression is that in average shoes one can still pickup a net+ and if one gets on any kind of a WinIAR(In-A-Row) streak of >=4-5 hits in a row (same or not-same events) on a pospro one can win >=40-60% of buyin.



Continued Success To All,

[AsymBacGuy]

Good read indeed.

I have some questions, see you tomorrow.

as.

[alrelax]

Allow me to back up a bit. Reality. Reality is what it is when you walk up to a casino gaming table, reach into your pocket and put your cash onto the felt. It is not getting fake chips on the Internet, it is not Internet free play practice, it is not clicking a button for $10,000 of fantasy chips to engage your fantasy play with. It is not wagering in every which way, flat betting-pro parlay-negative martingales, etc., to win or catch up with absolutely zero risk and as well, far in excess of what you would ever really bet if you were at a casino gaming table. Walking up to a casino with real money and putting it on the table is pure reality.  Risking your buy-in is pure reality.  Winning or losing sessions are pure reality. 

And in a casino with real play it is a combination of things; your psych, the noise, others you observe winning and losing, advice coming at you from various sources. All kinds of things that are absent, when you are sitting in your living room with free practice chips on a RNG game being played on your computer, tablet or your phone.

I have won, I have lost. I have won and gave it all back chasing larger wins that would never ever come. I have bought in with extremely small buy-ins and won countless times over what I would have with larger buy-ins. I have bought in with large buy-ins and played shoe after shoe after shoe, stopping after sheer exhaustion and never winning a dollar.  I have experienced every type of buy-in and re buy-in that anyone can imagine shy of being a whale in the casino world.

True, the most beautiful and energetic times are those times where I have won numerous times the size of my buy-in. And sadly, the worst times are those times I have lost my buy-in as well. That is what I call the reality of gaming.  And it cannot be matched in anyway with $10,000 of free fake chips you can get on a practice game on the Internet.

However, all of the gobbledygook one reads on the Internet forums about initiating stop-wins and stop-losses without proper protocol of a solid MMM, are so ANTI-Advantaged Experienced Knowledge, it is ludicrous to the max!  As well as all of the other mathematical and statistical applied mechanical triggering wagers, that so many believe will rake in the fortunes it makes my head spin. 

Bac is such a flip-flop game in reality. Real reality. How one handles just that is key. If you believe you can pick a table out of many on any casino floor and if not immediately producing wins, just move to another is a given, you need to realize the fallacy you are  surrounding yourself with. You will sink and sink hard with losing your funds the highest majority of the times.

Anything is possible in the game of Bac as well as, anything is not possible. Half a shoe of pure chop-chop, 12 or 14 doubles in a row, every single natural cuts to the opposite side, every single tie cuts to the opposite side, 1s and 2s for 10-20 hands and then a streak of 12 players followed by a streak of 11 or 12 Bankers, a shoe with 50+ Bankers versus 20 or 21 Players, Etc., Etc., Etc.  Anything is possible in reality and reality is what happens all the time at the table in a casino.

What so many fail to really digest about reality is; 1) Nothing is guaranteed. 2) Everything will change again soon. 3) Changing your response puts you in control. 4) Your decisions do not have to match the winning hands. Once you digest those, you are believing in reality.

But when you are there at the baccarat table, with your real chips in front of you and constantly gazing at the dealers rack of hundreds of thousands of dollars of casino chips, you are not playing fallacy any longer, you are not playing with fake chips or practice RNG hands, you are not playing to statistics completed and sworn by gambling mathematicians thinking they will reproduce >50% winning wagers in one, two or three shoes. If you think you can, I got some advice for you that is sure to save you some money. The advice I have for you, is to walk into the casino, change half of your desired buy-in money and do not bet, give it to the dealer as a tip and walk straight out.  BINGO!  You just saved half of your money.

Please look at the following two pictures below I will post. It's not a lot of money (about $10k and $18k), but it was a great return on the buy-ins that I had risked. And that is reality! I have won a lot more in my few decades of playing Baccarat. Most of the casinos especially on the East Coast and West Coast you cannot take pictures at the table. A few of them in the Midwest allows us to take pictures of the scoreboard and once in a while we sneak some pictures of some of the off-the-wall hands on the table but it's not easy to accomplish that. I'm not posting to brag, I am posting them for reality purposes.

The felt is reality and unlike sitting behind a computer, tablet or phone and playing free practice RNG games of baccarat with no investment, it is a totally different world. It is a world of REALITY where you win money or you really lose what you brought to the casino.

Seriously. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi Al, you answered to my questions in your last post. 

as.

[alrelax]

THINK

Do not take the preset, "I am going to wait for Such-N-Such" and "I am going to wager for "So-N-So".  Meaning a series of chops-a long streak-doubles, etc.  Because waiting for the presentments to match your desires will usually never keep going past when you finally start to wager on those.  And the few times it does, the times they do not will far outweigh the times they did! 

Usually and so often, the above is engaged in because of previous experiences and your desire for those to return so you can wager "correctly".  Be real careful and conscious of that!

And the scoreboards.  Ask yourself why the casinos invest in those scoreboards and the maintenance of them.  We actually did a heck of a lot better and allowed a greater amount of concentration and self control when those where not around!

Reference comparing shoes and even the shoe in play.  Before vs. Now, is dangerous to your buy-in most of the time.  Keep it Now vs. Now.  A concept so simple, but yet so difficult to most all bac players.  Why, I don't know but it is.

Things work until they don't.  That is the way the game is.  Nothing to figure out, nothing to code, no statistics to research.  It is a given.  PERIOD!  And that is what most all players can never comprehend and use to their advantage. 

You should concentrate on; 1). Turning smaller wagers into larger wins with the minimum amount of risk.  2). Recouping the "initial risk drawdowns" and multiplying the initial risk amount by several times.  3). Being conscious enough to separate win, in-play and your risked monies.  This is for a reason and the reason is Advantaged Skill, I promise you!

Why do I say what I did in the above paragraph?  Because you ARE NOT impervious!  You will be affected by various presentments of the shoe in one way or another.  Admit it or not.  You will be.

Bac gaming is a lot more than picking one side or the other for no reason.  It really really is and that is REALITY!

[KungFuBac]

alrelax above:

"...Anything is possible in the game of Bac as well as, anything is not possible. Half a shoe of pure chop-chop, 12 or 14 doubles in a row, every single natural cuts to the opposite side, every single tie cuts to the opposite side, 1s and 2s for 10-20 hands and then a streak of 12 players followed by a streak of 11 or 12 Bankers, a shoe with 50+ Bankers versus 20 or 21 Players, Etc., Etc., Etc.  Anything is possible in reality and reality is what happens all the time at the table in a casino..."


Anytime I hear a fellow bacster say "I bet this or that" meaning they have predetermined their bet selection (ie., I bet streaks, opps, blue, red,..etc, cut at that, continuance at that,...etc), I know its very probable they win <=49% of their bets.

Just last night had a shoe score as it approached the end P46 B28, with only 2 T til about the mid-70s hand. Nothing discernable besides "P is kicking behind" , and "B is locked on uno". Neither of these could have been predetermined. No P streaks longer than one 6iar and most P streaks ending @ 3iar or 4iar. Many fake outs as many kept guessing when B would make a comeback and lost their just-won money from the P dominance.

Continued Success,

[alrelax]

2 simply great and extremely profitable shoes!  I will explain later.  The first with a F7 on the 1st hand of the shoe.  Then full pro progressions and ride that streak. 

The second shoe with its 4 fortune 7s and the ending was simply unprecedented with the 4 iar ties that reduced each side to a 0-0 tie.  Seen a couple iar or same shoe, but never ever 4 iar!

I will explain most details later tonight or tomorrow.  Again, extremely interesting, off the wall, and lots of one-of-a-kind events happened in both shoes.