Thought, Reasons & Reality

[alrelax]

As Asym wrote in his Post #1433, the following: "Most of the times patterns move around low or very low levels of deviation, more appropriately by ranges of univocal situations happening for short frames.

"Trend following" players (probably 99% of all bac players) will win by hoping (or confiding) that homogeneous (or at least controllable) lines will be superior than heterogeneous lines, so wagering that winning ranges could take a longer than expected distribution.

The remaining 1% part will adopt a kind of system/approach/method/strategy based on B>P propensity, B/P gaps, B/P pattern deviations, RTM effects or other features. Obviously their enemy is strong negative deviations (ranges) not properly balanced by the searched (expected) results.

Definitely both different approaches are completely worthless itlr as bac tables continue to collect huge profits either from trend followers and from "system" players."

Yes, IN THE LONG RUN!  However, although we all play 'forever' in a sense, do not play for the long run.  Play for the instant date and time, play for the instant shoe alone, selective and individualistic.  Do not play for merging the results into your scorecard from the previous hundreds and hundreds of shoes/sessions.  What you are sitting in front of, has no rules, regulations, presentment scheduling protocol, etc., etc.

1). ONE HAS TO ADDRESS THE "Quit when your ahead". True, but a real double edged sword to the maximum! You will stop your potential win if you automatically do, simple. In baccarat you must win and win well when you are winning. Give back a little bit of the win, but have the experience to realize the risk and how reality plays being played out and keep it going without frustration, emotion and greed.  Refer to my rock solid M.M.M. to build and increase winning and realize when to call it quits for the session.

2). TREND FOLLOWING Vs. PRESENTMENT RECOGNITION.  Trends are always present, however a trend is not always there when we wager!  We all believe somewhat in following a trend to profit, but greater than 50% of the time, you will lose far greater than you will prevail. That is a guarantee. However, Presentments Recognition is a greater player advantage without a doubt. Hard to do, I agree. Trend following is a definitive exercise that is very emotional where upon you are basically setting the course that the shoe must conform to and you must follow as well. Presentment Recognition is wagering without judgment course setting. When I learned it I did much better with my results.

3). DO NOT CHASE.  Never ever!!!!  As I just said never ever. A negative martingale or two, but not a chase scene. Don't do it. Yes, I have done it in the past and I regret all the times I've done it. As I said before, the few times I have made up money, the amount of money I lost does not come close to all of the money that I've spent in the attempted chases.

Come on people let's win. Don't give the casino your risk capital. Win!

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi Al!
Interesting comments from your part.

In the long run: well, for the vast majority of players the "long run" is way shorter than hundreds or thousands of shoes, not mentioning the complete unintelligent tests made on 100 million shoes produced by "we really do not know from where those F productions came out"...(of course I'm referring to math experts trying to extract an edge at side bets).
Laboratory tests are worthwhile only if they reproduce the exact LIVE situation we'll bet at, otherwise they lack of the irreplaceable replicability factor.

In a word there are subtantial differences among different bac productions wrongly considered as similar or correspondent. The long term B/P ratio (that almost always will approach more and more the 0.5068/0.4932) is not a valid tool to assess that different productions could be considered as similar.

Anyway I agree that each shoe is a world apart, yet knowing that itlr (say within 20-30 shoe ranges) some lines will be more likely than others should help, IMO.

Quit when you are ahead: That's the most st.u.p.id suggestion serious players can hear about games.
The related sentence should sound as "Stay when you're behind", the perfect recipe to destroy every bankroll in the world, naturally while playing without a verified edge.
When things go in our favor, maybe ti's better to stay and stay and stay.
So you are 100% right about that.

Trend following vs presentement recognition
I'll take this important topic in the way we did where the "presentement" word is an intricate parameter putting in relationship long term situations with actual situations: such parameter at selected spots will never ever be 1 (50/50 or, more correctly, 50.68/49.32).
Hard to do, I agree too. At least without the use of algorithms we can use at live tables.

Do not chase
As you sayed, surpassed certain narrow distribution lines (actual or expected), we have no reason to chase that is we have no reasons to get the "expected" when the shoe is "too" biased.
Probably the best rule to follow when playing baccarat.

Good thread.

as.

[KungFuBac]

alrelax in the post above:

"..1). ONE HAS TO ADDRESS THE "Quit when your ahead". True, but a real double edged sword to the maximum! You will stop your potential win if you automatically do, simple. In baccarat you must win and win well when you are winning..."

     My preference is to always quit when ahead. Versus the alternative: quit when behind.

"...In baccarat you must win and win well..."

     The last part is the secret sauce. In other words:
"Its not about how fast you win, its about how well you win fast."

It is my opinion one must use some form of compounding (intra pattern streaks, shoes, sessions, trips), as we will see comparable W streaks vs L streaks. Utilize a cutoff for L streaks and do not chicken out when Variance is matching our bet selection/compounding regime is swamping the inevitable L runs.


Continued Success To All,