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[Bayes]

GreatGrampa,

Nice post. I was actually going to say something similar regarding tests. There are a whole bunch of statistical tests specifically designed to find out whether a hypothesis has some evidential support or whether the result you got is down to chance. It makes me laugh when the "experts" say that the wheel has no memory and that you could get, say, 100 reds in a row, therefore looking at past spins is a big waste of time because the past gives no clues as to what the future may be. But as you say, assuming a wheel is fair (not biased), there are regular and exploitable patterns in roulette (and in all games with fixed odds), and these patterns are exactly what the statistical tests rely on for their effectiveness. Or they will concede that yes there are regularities, but because of the law of large numbers you can't possibly rely on them in the relatively short sequences of spins which you observe in any session at the casino. Wrong again, it doesn't take long at all for the "laws" of probability to assert themselves, at least approximately and within parameters which any savvy player can take advantage of. It may not be enough to guarantee you'll win flat betting, but it's certainly enough to come out with a profit using smart MM.

[GreatGrampa]

It may not be enough to guarantee you'll win flat betting, but it's certainly enough to come out with a profit using smart MM.

Toughest nut to crack

[RouletteKEY]

1.  There is no bet selection that is superior to any other bet selection.  That is to say, all selections are the same.
2.  There is no money management procedure that will win.

So, then, what are we left with?  Clairvoyance?  Voodoo?  Oh, yes---luck!

I am sticking with my position that there are superior vs inferior bet selections and that when linked with proper money management and a proper bankroll that you can consistently outpace the house.  Luck certainly helps...but if you consistently beat the HE would it not be the well prepared player that is triumphant? 
Being good at anything is a matter of experience and proper preparation...many here are true students of the game and I believe there are more overall winners than people are giving credit.
That being said...of the thousand people that sit near me in any given year at a table...I would wager (and I am a betting man) that less than 2% have truly examined the game sufficiently to have a true chance of consistently winning.
Just my opinion

[Drazen]

Over the years I have read that whoever speaks about roulette is always mentioning famous house edge and how is impossible to beat the game due to that fact. I am sure deviations are much bigger problem in this game.

Lets take most simple example of playing even chances. Imagine that you have method that can somehow obtain ideal sequence giving you LWLWLWLWLWLW all the time. Zero or house edge dictates that we can't win flat bet in the long run, but would you mind for that when you could apply any simple negative progression like D Alembert and actually very easy being able to overcome losses plus that negative house edge which would give you extra loss from time to time. I think not

Best

Drazen

[Turner]

RK.....seriously.....in 2 YEARS.....at same casino....i noticed one guy play 2 dozens and a corner in the 3rd doz.
Yes it's a cr.ap idea but its the nearest I've seen someone actually playing a system
the rest select bets like a builder putting salt on his fish and chips. 1 guy in 2 years.

[monaco]

http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271

Here it is my friend

My best advice is that you shouldn't "chase" anything for too long if start to go bad.

I attached screenshot from my today's sessions. Look yellow marque on the right. Sequence of 28 losses and just 2 wins. This is the hardest as it gets!

Be carefull and good luck 

Drazen

I've read the explanation given by Bayes, but I'm not sure I fully understand what I'm looking at here, & what the L/W columns exactly represent.

For example, your 28 losses & 2 wins are for which selection, or is it a combination of selections?
I've played around with it & the W/L registry history seems to change as new results are input, & sometimes it prompts a bet on black, black wins, but an L appears in the column..

If we see say H/31 (see attached), long lines of L's, this isn't actually 12 Losses in a row for the EC at the top of the column is it? I get the feeling I'm missing something obvious here??
[attach=1]

Any extra explanation would be much appreciated!

[Drazen]

Well L/W registry is changing when those check boxes aren't marked. Because program is always displaying bet with lowest % of wins for particular betselection.

Letter always tells you what you should bet for a win on next spin.

When you mark that checkbox it means that from that point program will be monitoring only that betselection until you mark it off and press next spin. Then again bet with lowest % of wins will be displayed.

Now it is up to you what you will do with the L/W registry and how you will play it, and how strong deviation you will seek and how to fight with it.

It isn't kind of a "system" where I can say to you, search precisely this and that with tracker and you ll be fine. It really isn't, and that was biggest problem for me to understand too.

C1 numbers is BS "number of spins without double win" left marques, and 40 spins there is 3.0 std for that BS for example. When it is marked and you get 2 wins in a row, count sets to 0 and counts spins without double from that point again until you mark it off and press next spin.

For the left marques where  you see the numbers for example B/25 O/30 L/28 is percent of wins in last 40 spins.  25% is 10 wins in 40 spins or 3.0 STD.

I did my best mate, although Bays-es explanation is better definitely. Don't know...

I hope I helped at least a little.

All this software does if showing you stats, how you will use them is up to you. It isn't created for rigid mechanical play.

Best

Drazen

[monaco]

cheers Drazen


I need more practice with it, & will keep reading your notes & those from Bayes.




I've started using it as a guide (no system!) but sometimes it throws up decisions & I'm not sure why..


Just need to get my head around it.



thanks for your help

[Rouletta]

Hi Everyone

I agree with u Turner I've seen a guy playing for more than two years at B&M casinos.  He only plays double dozens using about 10 € per dozen
for relatively short period of time; He has no pens, no paper, does no written tracking as such. I never seen him lost; He makes about 200 - 300 €
per session; he then goes to another nearby casino doing wash, rinse and repeat. What's his secret......?? Don't have a clue. 
May be, just may the guy you are taling about and the one I'm talking about went to the same school.......lol  ;-)

Cheers

Rouletta

[Bayes]

I've started using it as a guide (no system!) but sometimes it throws up decisions & I'm not sure why..

monaco,

You'll find it easier to understand what's going on if you check one of the "fix" boxes. The reason why it apparently gives a L when you're expecting a W (or vice versa) is because the program automatically updates and sorts the bet selections when another BS has a lower % of wins, and it does this every spin. So for example if the R/B column is unchecked and you're supposed to bet B for a WIN, and then enter number 22, then you'd expect a W to appear in that column, BUT if the program has found another BS with a lower winning % after you clicked the 22, the current W/L registry will be replaced by the updated bet selection, in which case the pattern in the marquee will be different, and you may get a L where you were expecting a W. If however the "fix RB" box is checked, you shouldn't get any surprises because that particular bet selection (and therefore the W/L registry) will be fixed. Hope that helps.

[monaco]

Yep, think it's finally sinking in.

 
So amongst other things, you could maybe 'fix' a box for a few spins while you bet on a particular selection, then untick it after you've played it out & move on to look for another opportunity..

There's a lot of useful information there – thanks.

[Sputnik]

What is the selections you measuring 3.0 STD upon ... curios ...

Cheers

[Bayes]

So amongst other things, you could maybe 'fix' a box for a few spins while you bet on a particular selection, then untick it after you've played it out & move on to look for another opportunity..

Exactly, that was the idea behind being able to "fix" a particular BS.

What is the selections you measuring 3.0 STD upon ... curios ...

Very simple: for any EC there are 2ⁿ different permutations in any sequence of length n, and the program uses an array which contains all 1024 different permutations of a sequence of length 10. So RBBRBRRRRR, BRRBRBRRRR, etc. The bet selection is just to play each sequence over and over from beginning to end, and if a spin matches the particular element of the sequence you are on, it records a Win, otherwise, it records a Loss. e.g. for R B B R B R B B B R, the first bet is  R, if number 5 hits, you record a W. Next spin you move to the next element which is a B, so that is your selection. If the next number is 23, you record a Loss. This is done for each sequence - all 1024 of them and also for the Odd/Even and High/Low sequences, giving a total of 3072 bet selections. Each BS has its own array which records the corresponding Wins and Losses, and for the marquees on the right these are sorted every spin in order of the least number of wins. For the marquees on the left, the W/L registries are sorted by the number of losses since two wins in a row.

[Sputnik]

I think you mention that for me a long time ago ,,, thanks now i know ...

Cheers

[TwoCatSam]

We can not pick better or worse bet selection but can make strategies that can fight extreme momentary variance and money management techniques that can handle the bad cases. Nothing can work in all probabilities.

This is my thread; my topic!  The agreement was I would not post on your threads and you would not post on mine.  I have not posted on any thread of yours, but you have on mine.

Let's see you lie your way out of this one!