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[Turner]

Ok....the mystical "could tell you but then I would have to kill you" subject.

EC series.

It seems that if you study this...you feel you have done some kind of SAS training, and can't tell anyone.

They have to go into the labyrinth themselves and find out the hard way...like the Masons or Rosicrucians

I don't know what the reason for this rite of passage is...

OK.............
R or B is statistically most likely to happen. This is a series of 1. (RBRB)
Over many spins, you will see 25%

RR or BB 12%.....series of 2

RRR or BBB 6.25% series of 3

RRRR or BBBB 3.1% series of 4

You can see where this is going

RRRRRR (rare, 0.8%) BBBBB?
So another black and and a consecutive 6 series is rare, so bet red, and it continues BBBBB....and the chance of that is 0.05% (series of 10)

So what do we do with this knowledge?

RRBBRRB    bet red to "stop the trend"...or another way of putting it, bet red because a single series is much more probable than another 2 series....and it goes BBBBBB.

Throws in another even less probable series of 7

What I would like someone to explain is how we use these series statistics to place bets.

THIS IS WHAT I DON'T GET

Well...I get it, but it just doesn't seem to do what's expected (variance of course)


Turner

[Bally6354]

Well I am in the same boat as you on this one Turner.

As Sam likes to say from time to time...''I have not been up that mountain'' [smiley]aes/dont_know.png[/smiley]

[Blood Angel]

Me too! Would be interesting to here from the EC Meisters!

[Turner]

Skakus....cheers...this is what i wanted.


I'd rather see a worthless losing idea than just hear someone tell me they have the answer with no explaination


Hence, this subject.


So you bet with the wheel basically?

[Proofreaders2000]

I like the idea of four Red or Blacks more than the other start betting
the opposite with a small progression: 1,2,4 (stop) repeat 2,4,8 (stop)...

Example: RBRRBBRBRRRBRR--Blacks=5, Reds=9---Bet at least one more black will show in three spins...

[Sputnik]

Turner you can build a march that capture some events using the observation of the law of series.
Here is one concrete example.

Lets say you have a series of 4 red or 4 black in a row.

R
R
R
R

Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.

RR
RR
RR
RR

Now you can see that you got one clustering patterns with two outcomes 4 times in a row.
But then have 4 possibilities or equilibrium  RR RB BB BR ...

That is one way to see it.
Or you could say that you got one series of 8 reds.
All thinkable combinations exist.

Now assume you get one more series of 4 red or 4 black in a row and we put the outcomes next to the previous one.

RRB
RRB
RRB
RRB

Now you get 4 clustering patterns of the same out of 8 possibility/combinations ,,, pretty rare ,,, but it happens ....

So it continues with no end using equilibrium ...
So lets say we would create a march to bet against series of 4 and betting against does clustering patterns.
Then it would look like this.

You see red bet opposite for three times.
When you lose three times in a row, then wait for a new outcome and then bet opposite again for three times.
Repeat the formula as many times you want depending on what kind of staking plan you use.

Optional is to bet once only for each sequential attack.

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1

So this is how it looks like to catch singles, series of two and series of three using one simple march ...

2
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
2 L

2
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L 
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
1 L

[Bayes]

According to his last posts on rouletteforum.cc last year, it seems that reddwarf  had found the holy grail.


http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9090.0


@ Turner,


One of the ways of using the "law" of series is Marigny de Grilleau's method. Look for Ego or Lucky Strike's threads in the other forum.
There's a guy here called ||| || | ||| || or something similar who uses it too, I think he looks for imbalances in the series and then bets accordingly. e.g. in X bets there should be a some number of series of 2, so, taking into account standard deviation, on the appearance of a single like RRR B, you would bet black and then red which would result in a series of two.


There are many ways you can use the "law" of series, because it applies not only to R/B but longer sequences. e.g., there are twice as many isolated singles as series of singles, twice as many isolated series of 2 as consecutive series of 2, and each of these are related in some way to other series. If you take into account these relationships as well as the standard deviations, you can lower the variance, and that's all you need to win.


Or you could just play the trump card and say that every bet has a 50:50 chance of winning. 

[Turner]

I appreciate your replies people.


don't know how many play craps, but its similar (but more complex) than dice probability, which I understand.


The Marigny de grilleau post by Ego, I posted on many months ago. It was simply an image of an exploding head cartoon.


I shall revisit this post now I've actually understood what series are.


i never get anything unless I see it for myself....like this....
100 spins, OE


OK...its obvious singles are more than 2 series, but after that, it's a bit "I didn't expect that"


with such variance, how can you be sure? HOW COULD YOU PLAY THESE NUMBERS AS O/E?


Series of 1 = 17
Series of 2 = 12
Series of 3 = 2
Series of 4 = 0
Series of 5 = 2
Series of 6 = 2
Series of 8 = 0
Series of 9 = 0
Series of 10 = 0
Series of 11 = 1


23 2
31 2..
36 1
0
21 2
11 2..
16 2
18 2..
25 2
7   2..
22 1
29 7
13 7
21 7
25 7
25 7
5   7
11 7.....
24 1
25 3
23 3
5   3...
6   2
2   2...
21 1
36 1
23 6
17 6
7   6
5   6
21 6
5   6....
30 1
25 1
8   1
9   2
11 2....
32 2
36 2...
0
31 6
3   6
33  6
11  6
25 6
13 6.....
4  2
20 2..
11 2
25 2....
14 1
7   1
2   5
34 5
10 5
4  5
4  5....
29 2
25 2..
3
0
28 1
31 1
22 3
12 3
4   3....
1  1
6  5
12 5
10 5
2   5
4   5...
17 6
3  6
27 6
5   6
15 6
21 6.....
10 2
14 2...
25 1
14 1
35 1
34 2
6   2...
31 1
28 11
22 11
26 11
2   11
28  11
24  11
18  11
26  11
20  11
24  11
11

[Sputnik]

Lets pick a playing model first based upon math and probability.

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
Series of eight has the value of 6
And so it continues ...

Now singles and series of three has a 50/50 situation with the value of 1 each.
Assume now you get a window of event with imbalance where singles only show with just one or two series of three.
Lets say you get a window of 14 singles and 2 series of three.
That is a STD or Ecart of 3.0 and a very strong imbalance.

Now the law independence dictate that you have a window of 3.0 STD in this universe.
Is like a vacuum pressure.
Or you isolate a strong imbalance occurring with 20 to 25 trail window.

Now i can tell you what will happen in the future with 99.9 % probability certainty.
For the next 25, 50, 100, 150, 200 trails you will get larger series to appear.
Series of four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and so on.

All you have to do is to develop a march to catch does events or series.
I would recommend tendency play where you only play when a larger series has a show and not before that.

This is just one among many different methods using the law of series.
It exist many different methods.

I would recommend this for team play and long term play.

[Bayes]

The Marigny de grilleau post by Ego, I posted on many months ago. It was simply an image of an exploding head cartoon.

Turner, it's really not that complicated. The basic idea is that there are as many singles as there are series. A "series" is simply a run of R or B longer than 1. So RRR , RRRRRRR, RR, RRRR, RRRRRRRRRR are all series, but R "on it's own" with at least 1 B on either side, is a single.

You've already verified that there are as many singles (approximately) as series in your data:

Series of 1 = 17
Series of 2 = 12
Series of 3 = 2
Series of 4 = 0
Series of 5 = 2
Series of 6 = 2
Series of 8 = 0
Series of 9 = 0
Series of 10 = 0
Series of 11 = 1

There are  roughly as many singles (series of 1) as there are series longer than 1: 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 19.

So the relationship between series and singles is the the same as that for Reds vs Blacks, ie: 50:50. Therefore any bet selection applied to R/B can be applied to Singles/Series, because the probabilities are the same.

The Marigny de Grilleau method is simply waiting for losses, as you might do when playing Red vs Black, but using Singles vs Series instead. It's nothing more than that.

[Number Six]

So the relationship between series and singles is the the same as that for Reds vs Blacks, ie: 50:50. Therefore any bet selection applied to R/B can be applied to Singles/Series, because the probabilities are the same.

Spot on. The whole thing can be debunked by accepting that a single may become a series or may remain a single. The probabilities of both events is 50/50 in every situation and therefore every situation is predictable only at the mean. Regression does not help, since it can happen over hundreds or thousands of spins. You may well still go bust before getting ahead by even one unit, despite things overall regressing in your favour. Singles and series is only valuable only for academic reasons, ie personal research. In the main it's another blind alley that simply leads back to FTL or OTL.

[Chrisbis]

This editor is better than some.

And if you had a problem......all you have to do is ask.

If its about the size/font/auto changes, they are set for upgrade soon.

All you have to do, is, be careful when back spacing, and if the sizing/font problem arises, then just hit the little "Toggle View"
Icon button [attachimg=1] to see what your about to post, and then back space it out.

[Turner]

Lets pick a playing model first based upon math and probability.

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
Series of eight has the value of 6
And so it continues ...

Now singles and series of three has a 50/50 situation with the value of 1 each.
Assume now you get a window of event with imbalance where singles only show with just one or two series of three.
Lets say you get a window of 14 singles and 2 series of three.
That is a STD or Ecart of 3.0 and a very strong imbalance.

Ego.....Im researching and have now hit a crossroads.


In 2011....you said something very similar, but different.


I have to resolve the differences to further my study


you said


Series of two contra higher series.
The valuse for each event is as follows.
singles has the value of 0 
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
Series of seven has the value of 4
And so it continues ...

Here we skip singles and series of three as we aim to only capture longer series and the overrepresented events has to be series of two and the imbalance has to hit a bench mark of 3.0 STD before we can wait for the underrepresented events to show and try to gain at least +1 unit - using a specific march.

[Sputnik]

Ego.....Im researching and have now hit a crossroads.


In 2011....you said something very similar, but different.


I have to resolve the differences to further my study


you said


Series of two contra higher series.
The valuse for each event is as follows.
singles has the value of 0 
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
Series of seven has the value of 4
And so it continues ...

Here we skip singles and series of three as we aim to only capture longer series and the overrepresented events has to be series of two and the imbalance has to hit a bench mark of 3.0 STD before we can wait for the underrepresented events to show and try to gain at least +1 unit - using a specific march.

Yes as i mention there is different tactics ...
One way is to track them all during play ...
A hot tip is to only bet after +1 as indication of tendency toward the right path.
As you can see it has nothing to do with develop a march based upon FTL or any other ...
Tendency play for regression towards the mean or correction is a different ball game, but i don't expect every one to know that.

PM me if you want more information about the subject and i will help you.
I still have simulation softwares for some methods of this work by Marigny, i send them to you if you want them.
It never faild during my testing.


Turner i come up with other solutions for trending based upon math and probability.

It need some clever staking plan and testing, if you feel up to the task we can do it together.

I notice the random flow is like a ocean with waves.
So we can pick any benchmark of window of events.
Measuring any STD or Ecart window of events with imbalance.

It can be 1.5 STD window and then bet towards regression towards the mean.
It can be a 2.5 STD window and then bet towards regression toward the mean.
It can be a 3.5 STD
It can be a 4,5

I just want to show you that i develop a FTL Ecart play or Ecart trending based upon math and probability ...
Each attack sequense is three bets and this is how it looks like ...
You can play after around 1.5 or after around 2.5 ...
If you play after around at least 1.5 then that is the common LW-Registry that you see.
If you play after around at least 2.5 then its after three loses with the LW-Registry ...

31/8 Singles

LW
LLW
W
W
LW
W
LW
LLL at least 2.5 STD
LLW
W
W
W

31/8 Series

LW
W
W
W
LW
W
LLL at least 2,5 std
LW

30/8 Singles

LW
LLW
LW
LLL at least 2,5 std
W
W
W
LW
W
LW

30/8 Series

W
LW
W
LW
W
W
W
LW

29/8 Singles

W
W
W
W
W
W
LW
LW
LLW
W
LLW

29/8 Series

W
W
W
W
LW
W
LW

---

I just want to show this to you as this is like trending based upon math and probability.

It has nothing to do with if the trend continues and stop at any time like using red and black patterns the common way.

1. Singles has the value of 1 and Series has the value of 1.
They are equal and there is as many singles as there is series.

2. The bell curve has no limit.

3. We can pick any benchmark to follow.
We can pick a window of events starting from 0 1 2 3 STD and bet for regression towards the mean, correction.
The random flow comes with small, middel and large waves where singles and series chop and create imbalance.

4. The best way is to use tendency play, that means you only play after you have +1.
That means you never place a bet if you don't have present change of the oppisite happening.
This way you prevent to some extant not chasing for events.

[Sputnik]

Everything has a element of gambling, that is for sure.
But Marigny and Markow use present states/waves and you can measuring them.

This is how the values looks like

1,13 STD
1,66 STD
1,41 STD
0,81 STD
2,32 STD
0,81 STD
0,81 STD
2,49 STD
1,41 STD

All won using tendency play after +1